Yet another war, this time with Iran

[southernhybrid]

I have not read all of the posts in this thread, but I'm going to link an article that I read this morning that imo, pretty much sums up the madness of this was by our totally incompetent president. It's not behind a paywall.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/...e_code=1.WlA.WvbP.1bk9oKef39kH&smid=url-share

The following is just a small part of the piece. it's worth reading the entire article, imo.

President Trump has vacillated between boasting about U.S. military superiority and deep frustration that his war of choice is not always having the desired effects.

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By Erica L. Green

Erica L. Green is a White House correspondent. She reported from Washington.

• March 28, 2026

President Trump was fresh off the golf course, and his fury was building.

It was March 21, and as he settled back into his Mar-a-Lago estate for the evening, he was reading another news account about how, for all the military success the United States had in Iran, he had yet to achieve his political objectives.

At 7:44 p.m., the president made his frustration known with an extraordinary ultimatum: If Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and allow much of the world’s oil and gas to flow through, he would bomb Iran’s civilian electric power plants. It was the kind of attack that could constitute a war crime under the Geneva Conventions.

But just hours before the Monday deadline expired, Mr. Trump delayed his threat by five days, easing fears of an imminent escalation with profound military, diplomatic and economic implications.

Still, he warned that “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out” if Iran would not make a deal, and as the week progressed he made new threats that left allies off balance and spooked the markets. So on Thursday afternoon, after stocks on Wall Street suffered their largest daily declinesince the start of the war, he added another 10 days to the clock, again seeking to ease the fears ignited by his own hard-line positions.

It is too soon to know whether the extra time will result in productive diplomacy. But it is already clear that Mr. Trump’s wild swings — from optimism to frustration and anger, from de-escalation to escalation — have combined to give his management of the war an erratic, make-it-up-as-it goes feel.

Ever since the United States, alongside Israel, launched the war on Feb. 28, Mr. Trump has vacillated between chest-thumping about U.S. military superiority and deep frustration that the tactical achievements on the battlefield did not seem to be producing the strategic outcome he predicted.

Although the supreme leader and many top military and intelligence leaders have been killed, the regime in Tehran remains in control. Iran’s leaders have all but sealed off the Strait of Hormuz, sending gas prices skyrocketing and rattling investors. And Iran retains control of the material it would need to produce a nuclear weapon, the main threat cited by Mr. Trump in taking the nation into the war in the first place.

Mr. Trump has said he understands there will be short-term pain from the war, which he accepts as a necessary price to ensure that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. And the president’s allies have always said that his unpredictability is his superpower, and that it keeps his enemies guessing.

 

[barbos]

Even a ground war (in Asia, no less) would be highly preferable to your solution to capitulating and giving the ayatollahs even more pallets of cash.

But you are going to lose ground war. So you have no cards to play.

We don't have a ground force large enough to deploy in the first place.

Only way to "finish this" is a deal with IRGC for a secular government.

Tell that to Lindsey.

 

[SLD]

Even a ground war (in Asia, no less) would be highly preferable to your solution to capitulating and giving the ayatollahs even more pallets of cash.

But you are going to lose ground war. So you have no cards to play.

We don't have a ground force large enough to deploy in the first place.

Only way to "finish this" is a deal with IRGC for a secular government.

Precisely. A full fledged ground war would require a huge national effort and probably a draft. We could win it if we had the will to win like WWII, but that support just doesn’t exist and without it, Barbos may be right.

 

[ZiprHead]

No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

WTF does "see it through" look like?

Let a future Democratic administration leave because it wasn't a good idea so that he can make fun of them.

It's not as if Biden Administraion were not thinking about regime changing Iran.

Russia participated in a regime change in the US.

 

[aupmanyav]

Yeah, how did the people in USA choose a mad person as their president?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Since 2020, the US is a net exporter of oil. Oil includes refined oil products. It is a net importer of crude oil. (USA exports and imports of oil)

Oil is oil. Even your link uses "crude oil and petroleum products", not just "oil".

But no matter. In either case US is far better off producing (and being able to transport) great quantities of oil and gas domestically.
This is especially important during times of geopolitical instability, such as when Russia invaded Ukraine (US being able to export LNG to Europe was very important to reduce its reliance on Russian gas) and, of course, now.

The politicians on the left wing of the Democratic party like AOC, Bernie, Warren and even Kamala wanted to hamstring domestic oil and gas production because of ideology.
Example, Elizabeth Warren:
View attachment 53913
Just idiotic!

Oil is not just oil. In the US, we mostly have light crude oil. For some odd reason, most of our refineries only refine heavy crude refineries. So, we have to import heavy crude. We export light crude, import heavy crude. It dosn't matter how much we drill, we can't escape the fact that like most of the world, our economy is dependent upon stable cost of oil internationally.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yeah, how did the people in USA choose a mad person as their president?

The left didn't put up an impressive candidate. Ukraine war caused massive inflation that pissed people off (war is bad for an economy). We left the border open, got focused on woke policies, and didn't emphasize the economy.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Since 2020, the US is a net exporter of oil. Oil includes refined oil products. It is a net importer of crude oil. (USA exports and imports of oil)

Oil is oil. Even your link uses "crude oil and petroleum products", not just "oil".

But no matter. In either case US is far better off producing (and being able to transport) great quantities of oil and gas domestically.
This is especially important during times of geopolitical instability, such as when Russia invaded Ukraine (US being able to export LNG to Europe was very important to reduce its reliance on Russian gas) and, of course, now.

The politicians on the left wing of the Democratic party like AOC, Bernie, Warren and even Kamala wanted to hamstring domestic oil and gas production because of ideology.
Example, Elizabeth Warren:
View attachment 53913
Just idiotic!

Oil is not just oil. In the US, we mostly have light crude oil. For some odd reason, most of our refineries only refine heavy crude refineries. So, we have to import heavy crude. We export light crude, import heavy crude. It dosn't matter how much we drill, we can't escape the fact that like most of the world, our economy is dependent upon stable cost of oil internationally.

As early as the seventies, we set up to refine heavy crude from Mexico, Canada, and Venezuela. The shale boom and a gush of light crude started about 2010. Heavy refineries can process light crude but my understanding is it's inefficient. Or they can mix both to a medium crude. Refineries elsewhere in the world aren't set up to process heavy crude. US refiners spent up to $1B per to set up to process heavy crude. They are loathe to spend it again to undo it. I would think they might have tried and strike a balance but I guess this is the best financial decision for them.

 

[Toni]

Men certainly seem to have a problem with women.

Typical Toni. I mention two politicians, a man and a woman, and you turn it into a "man have a problem with women".

If they speak out strongly, they are strident or schoolmatmish or ball busters.

Well, Warren certainly comes across as schoolmarmish. It is common to talk about politicians' personalities, even or especially in unflattering ways. Why is it ok to describe, for example, Al Gore as wooden, but not Elizabeth Warren as schoolmarmish?

If they speak in more modulated tones, they are wish washy, weak, just fluff.

No, that has nothing to do with "modulated tones". I think Kamala's 2024 campaign was "just fluff" because she eschewed talking about policy until late in the already foreshortened campaign, preferring instead to rely on vibes and memes.
Can Harris win on good vibes alone?: From the Politics Desk
That is a fair criticism, and should not be dismissed just because she happens to be female.

Heaven forbid they be too old or too fat or too thin or too sexy or too maternal or too butch or bitchy or ( insert insult here), while men have zero problem voting for fat, ignorant, privileged blowhards.

No, Chris Christie or Mike Huckabee's weight was never commented on negatively.
Physical, sartorial and personality characteristics, as well as background are always talked about for male politicians. You are living in a phantasy if you believe that only women face such scrutiny. Really, do you have some kind of selective perception?

If you disagree with a position, then you should be able to state where you think the position is incorrect or misguided. I know you never voted for Trump but you have managed to consolidate in a few words exactly what women are up against.

Most relevant to this thread (and we are on very thin ice) would be the opposition of politicians such as AOC, Bernie, Warren, Markey and Kamala to domestic oil and gas production as well as to oil and gas pipelines.
Bernie, Warren and Kamala called for banning fracking when they all ran for president in 2020.

Because I’m sure you never watched the movie, I will simply leave this speech from
The movie Barbie ( which I did not intend to see myself except a dear friend was visiting and wanted to see it plus I liked many of the names attached to the film):

I have not seen the movie, but my understanding is that "Barbieland" is some kind of matriarchy where men like Ken are 2nd class citizens.
And even then, judging from your quote, female characters are complaining about having it harder than men.

Don’t worry, Derec, I can hear your eyes rolling right now as you skip over to the part where you tell me how wrong I am.

Trust me, I am doing all I can to keep my eyeballs from rolling right out of their orbits!

The point of me posting that quoted monologue was to illustrate the very tiny eye of a needle women are expected to thread in their every day existence.

It did not speak to the struggles of men because—get this—it wasn’t about men. A difficult concept to grasp, I realize. Not everything is about men.

I’ve been married for many years, raised children to men, have always had make friends, had a father, uncles, brothers in law, grandfathers, make teachers and coworkers I admired and respected —and I do not feel qualified to talk about the male perspective. That does not mean that I think men have it easy. Patriarchy is toxic to all. The movie touches on that, btw. But it’s not about fixing men. It’s about self realization of women.

FWIW, the never liked Barbie as a child and inwardly cringed when my daughter looooved her Barbie’s. I wrote an essay about how terrible Barbies are when I was in school. I only saw the film because my dear friend was visiting and wanted to go.

Turned out, I loved the movie. I strongly disagree with what the movie wants to say that Barbie ( the doll) is all about but that doesn’t mean that I wasn’t won over. BTW, Ryan Gosling won an Oscar for his role which to me just illustrates how fucked up our society is.

 

[barbos]

No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

WTF does "see it through" look like?

Let a future Democratic administration leave because it wasn't a good idea so that he can make fun of them.

It's not as if Biden Administraion were not thinking about regime changing Iran.

Russia participated in a regime change in the US.

We did not, should have, though.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I honestly don't think Trump can get out of this. Why should the Iranian regime deal with Trump? They've got the world by the short and curlies right now. US assessment is we've destroyed about a third of Iran's missile capacity. Another third is likely but not confirmed. The same goes for drones. I don't think anyone is going to transit the strait on this rosy picture. Then there's always mines to consider.
Is the Iranian regime in such dire straits? They've shown their people they are willing to kill their own on a wholesale level. As long as they can continue to pay the ones with the guns, I don't imagine they are going to collapse any time soon.

 

[barbos]

I honestly don't think Trump can get out of this. Why should the Iranian regime deal with Trump? They've got the world by the short and curlies right now. US assessment is we've destroyed about a third of Iran's missile capacity. Another third is likely but not confirmed. The same goes for drones. I don't think anyone is going to transit the strait on this rosy picture. Then there's always mines to consider.
Is the Iranian regime in such dire straits? They've shown their people they are willing to kill their own on a wholesale level. As long as they can continue to pay the ones with the guns, I don't imagine they are going to collapse any time soon.

Iranian regime should kidnap Trump and install Vance as POTUS.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, how did the people in USA choose a mad person as their president?

The left didn't put up an impressive candidate. Ukraine war caused massive inflation that pissed people off (war is bad for an economy). We left the border open, got focused on woke policies, and didn't emphasize the economy.

Well some of that is right. I'm getting tired over how wokr the left is as if every damn accusation of it by the right wing is true.

Inflation lost the election.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Yeah, how did the people in USA choose a mad person as their president?

The left didn't put up an impressive candidate. Ukraine war caused massive inflation that pissed people off (war is bad for an economy). We left the border open, got focused on woke policies, and didn't emphasize the economy.

Well some of that is right. I'm getting tired over how wokr the left is as if every damn accusation of it by the right wing is true.

Inflation lost the election.

What didn't you agree with? I liked Harris. I voted for her. Gave her campaign money. But I don't think that she was very inspiring. She didn't see to have a grasp of economics. We are losing the white middle class. I think that focus on woke stuff, privilege, and its etc is part of the reason. Hard to convince someone to vote for us when we're telling him to feel guilty. The right wants to discriminate against people: minorities, gays, trans, non-Christians, and etc. We can win here by advocating for treating everyone the same. I think that we should get off our moral high horse and just treat people as we'd want to be treated. Sorry for derail of thread...

 

[barbos]

 

[Shadowy Man]

Apparently, simply being the lesser of evils is not enough to keep people from voting for the greater of evils.

 

[Toni]

Yeah, how did the people in USA choose a mad person as their president?

The left didn't put up an impressive candidate. Ukraine war caused massive inflation that pissed people off (war is bad for an economy). We left the border open, got focused on woke policies, and didn't emphasize the economy.

The Ukraine war did not cause massive inflation. The generations younger than boomers never saw significant inflation before so they think that it’s shocking. Some inflation as wages rise always happens. Always. They just didn’t think it would happen to them.

What my dog leaves in the back yard is a more impressive candidate than Trump. Sexism coupled with racism, but mostly sexism won Trump the election. And quite possibly outside interference.

 

[laughing dog]

Since 2020, the US is a net exporter of oil. Oil includes refined oil products. It is a net importer of crude oil. (USA exports and imports of oil)

Oil is oil. Even your link uses "crude oil and petroleum products", not just "oil".

As Harry Bosch pointed out, oil is not oil. There is a difference between heavy crude oil (of which we are a net importer) and light crude oil (of which we are a net exporter).

But no matter. In either case US is far better off producing (and being able to transport) great quantities of oil and gas domestically.

We are not better off relying in domestic production unless we have a comparative advantage in it. Stop parroting Trumponomics.

 

[Derec]

WTF does "see it through" look like?

What is the victory condition?

At this point, it will have to lead to the fall of the Regime. Anything less will just embolden them, which would be bad for everyone.

How can that be achieved, and how long will it take?

I think US needs to be more aggressive in the Strait of Hormuz and also re Kargh Island. That would cut off revenue from the Regime.
We need to degrade IRGC capabilities, esp. missiles and drones.

Then assess and see how best to proceed from there.

 

[Derec]

The Ukraine war did not cause massive inflation.

It was one contributing factor to the inflation spike. Others were the aftereffects of the Pandemic and Biden's profligate spending policies (to which he wanted to add the $3.5T Spendapalooza).

The generations younger than boomers never saw significant inflation before so they think that it’s shocking. Some inflation as wages rise always happens. Always. They just didn’t think it would happen to them.

Yeah, "it's not as bad as it was in the 70s" doesn't really make people fine with 9% inflation.

What my dog leaves in the back yard is a more impressive candidate than Trump. Sexism coupled with racism, but mostly sexism won Trump the election. And quite possibly outside interference.

That is way too simplistic.
Kamala was a bad candidate. That's why she didn't go far in 2020 even though she had early advantages.
Without George Floyd riots, she likely would not have been selected as Biden's running mate.

She was dealt a bad hand because Biden did not drop out the previous Summer. That means she was foisted on the electorate without the benefit of primaries. But she also made critical mistakes herself during the 108 day campaign. She leaned into "vibes and memes" and even selected Tim Walz as running mate because he called Republicans "weird". When she finally got to talking about policies, they were tired old "let's just spend more". And what's worse, one of her spending proposals was a blatantly unconstitutional program that excluded based on race.
Harris promises 1 million forgivable loans for Black businesses