Yet another war, this time with Iran

[Gospel]

When all is said and done the US always stands to benefit from instability in the middle east and Europe. This war won't be any different.

You call it instability?

Are the trade routes stable? Are relations with neighboring countries stable? What, exactly, does “instability” mean in Russian?

You call US/Israel bombing a country and assassinating people an istability?

No. You really think that wouldn’t lead to instability? They have schools in Russia, last I checked, so what’s your excuse?

 

[barbos]

They have schools in Russia, last I checked, so what’s your excuse?

I finished US school.

 

[Tigers!]

They have schools in Russia, last I checked, so what’s your excuse?

I finished US school.

Ah! That explains so many things.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Jethro Dull Vance headed to Pakistan to participate in negotiations with Iran.

Be still my beating heart.

Really wouldn't mind if he sat this one out.

 

[excreationist]

Iran has released a couple of slick entertaining propaganda videos that use AI videos with Lego and rap. Here's one with a second one later in the video...

 

[TV and credit cards]

That's really pretty good.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Shiite hiphop? There is something new in the music biz.

 

[TV and credit cards]

And aside from everything else,

The US-Iran ceasefire talks are complicated by the fragmented nature of the Iranian negotiating team. The United States is dealing with a de facto committee composed of competing political, military, and security factions, rather than a unified delegation with a clear mandate and unified positions. These actors hold divergent views on the scope and purpose of the negotiations, and several are operating outside the formal responsibilities of their offices. The result is a fragmented team marked by internal rivalries, mixed signaling, and unclear lines of authority, especially between Iran’s diplomatic institutions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), and the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[TV and credit cards]

And this:

Current economic challenges in Iran are causing Iranian officials to fear that economic deterioration could threaten the regime’s ability to govern. Iranian Parliament Budget Committee member Mehrdad Lahouti stated on April 10 that Iranian banks are in poor condition and warned that current challenges risk pushing banks toward crisis or bankruptcy.[62] Lahouti added that production has ”practically” stalled and that exporters have halted activity.[63] Lahouti stated that producers cannot pay wages and that many hotels in Tehran have closed, noting that these businesses must pay workers.[64] Unspecified political insiders close to the Iranian establishment told Reuters on April 8 that Iranian officials viewed the economy as Iran’s “Achilles heel” and feared that economic deterioration could threaten the regime’s ability to govern.[65] Unspecified insiders added that any comprehensive peace agreement would need to lift sanctions and release frozen funds because Iranian authorities would otherwise face severe difficulty meeting payroll obligations and repairing damaged infrastructure.[66] The internet blackout has also exacerbated economic strain. A recent NetBlocks report on April 10 indicates that Iran’s nationwide internet blackout, exceeding 42 days, has severely disrupted financial transactions, commercial activity, and business operations, compounding broader economic deterioration.[67] Netblocks previously estimated that the countrywide internet shutdown costs the Iranian economy over $37 million USD per day.[68]

 

[WAB]

Jethro Dull Vance headed to Pakistan to participate in negotiations with Iran.

Be still my beating heart.

Really wouldn't mind if he sat this one out.

Jethro Dull was what Led Zeppelin called Tull when they toured together. There was some animosity because Ian Anderson had made a disparaging remark about Plant's lyrics. To me, Tull was the opposite of dull, and I became a huge fan. But I realize a lot of people hate them.

 

[pood]

They have schools in Russia, last I checked, so what’s your excuse?

I finished US school.

What a searing indictment of U.S. schools.

 

[SLD]

Has anyone mentioned that bringing back the draft is being considered. Get your protests ready young ones and start to realize what boomers had to deal with during the Viet Nam War. Sadly, this could be even worse! Soon, you will be using our hippy slang, not that I think we currently have any members here who are young enough to be drafted, but some of you might have kids who are. Have Bannon go first, assuming he has no bone spurs.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/could-u-bring-back-draft-174131891.html

As the war with Iran intensifies, it has reignited a concern that usually bubbles up when the U.S. enters into conflict with another country: Could the United States bring back the military draft?

The anxiety isn’t entirely surprising, even as the standoff enters a tenuous two-week ceasefire. The Trump administration has signaled the possibility of a longer fight, saying it’s keeping “options on the table.” And a new policy set to take effect in December will automatically register eligible men with the Selective Service system, adding to the unease.

I used to oppose a military draft. I wanted a professional and dedicated military. Now I have reconsidered. While that is important, I now think we need a military that leaders DON’T necessarily trust. A military made up of citizenry from all backgrounds will be far less likely to follow illegal and unconstitutional orders. If Trump were to try and stay in power in 2029 despite losing the election, he would not be able to count on a drafted military to follow orders.

 

[aupmanyav]

Democracy is till we respect the laws. Otherwise, it is very fragile.
Thank Allah for the countries that have wise leaders. India being one.
US chose an exception.

 

[crazyfingers]

Well, if true, this is a problem.

Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.

As with land mines, removing nautical mines is far more difficult than placing them. The U.S. military lacks robust mine removal capabilities, relying on littoral combat ships equipped with mine sweeping capabilities. Iran also does not have the capability of quickly removing mines, even the ones it planted.

I was reading that the US Navy just recently retired its remaining dedicated minesweepers. These littoral combat ships can't do the job as well as a dedicated minesweeper.

Of course this news is coming from the US Government so it's not to be trusted without evidence.

Iran Unable to Find Mines It Planted in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says

The lost mines have prevented Iran from quickly complying with President Trump’s demand to allow more ships to pass through the waterway.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Harry Bosch]

Well, if true, this is a problem.

Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.

As with land mines, removing nautical mines is far more difficult than placing them. The U.S. military lacks robust mine removal capabilities, relying on littoral combat ships equipped with mine sweeping capabilities. Iran also does not have the capability of quickly removing mines, even the ones it planted.

I was reading that the US Navy just recently retired its remaining dedicated minesweepers. These littoral combat ships can't do the job as well as a dedicated minesweeper.

Of course this news is coming from the US Government so it's not to be trusted without evidence.

Iran Unable to Find Mines It Planted in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says

The lost mines have prevented Iran from quickly complying with President Trump’s demand to allow more ships to pass through the waterway.

www.nytimes.com

Yea, for Trump and his team of bumblers to not anticipate how easy it would be for Iran to close the Strait is the greatest foreign policy blunder in US history. IMO. Maybe Vietnam was worse. Vietnam was worse over time for sure. But this is a disaster. Far worse than Bush invading Iraq.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Ukraine can play useful role in Strait of Hormuz, Britain says

praising its drone technology as among the best in the world.

Ukraine has already deployed more than 200 experts to the Middle ⁠East, where they have downed Iran's long-range Shahed drones.

You reading this Mr No Cards? How about you, Jethro? Working on that thank you, yet?
It'd be so sweet if Ukraine got the strait safe enough for passage and nations publicly praised Ukraine for unfucking what the Trump administration fucked up.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Ukraine can play useful role in Strait of Hormuz, Britain says

praising its drone technology as among the best in the world.

Ukraine has already deployed more than 200 experts to the Middle ⁠East, where they have downed Iran's long-range Shahed drones.

You reading this Mr No Cards? How about you, Jethro? Working on that thank you, yet?
It'd be so sweet if Ukraine got the strait safe enough for passage and nations publicly praised Ukraine for unfucking what the Trump administration fucked up.

I think that this has been a real eye opener for our Russian comrades. I keep hearing that it is NATO (the US) fighting Russia not Ukrainians! It's the US and Nato giving all the tech and teaching Ukrainians to fight. Nope! The other way around! They are now the experts in modern warfare as they have been fighting for their lives for the past 5 years.

 

[bilby]

Shiite hiphop? There is something new in the music biz.

Nah, hiphop has always been shite.

 

[Derec]

Quite. Iran doesn't need to sink every ship that goes through the Strait of Hormuz. They need to be feasibly feared of sinking just one. These ships are expensive. Their cargo can be in the hundreds of millions.

US needs to continue to hammer IRGC assets, especially missile and drone capabilities.
But US also must take the fight to Iranian oil and gas exports. If they are restricting traffic through the Strait, then US must also make it impossible for them to export one drop of oil or one fart's worth of natural gas.

To make things worse, the Strait of Hormuz isn't the widest either.

That's the defining feature of straits.

It wouldn't take too much to choke it off with a burning ship. Iran has already shoved ships to the north. Anything close to the Arabian Peninsula has been declared a hazard zone by Iran.

It would also not take much for US to return the favor and close the Strait to Iranian-linked vessels.

Is it mined?

Apparently they have, but then forgot where they put them.
US says Iran lost track of mine locations spread in Strait of Hormuz, complicating reopening - NYT

Is there a risk of an attack if ships go that route?

I think so. The Regime has attacked civilian targets in GCC countries, so they are certainly not beyond targeting civilian shipping.
The solution is, beyond targeting their offensive capabilities, to make this more costly to them then they are making it to us. Board and confiscate Iranian vessels. Make it impossible to export anything from Kharg. Then "abwarten und Tee trinken" ("wait and drink tea") as the Germans would say, since time is not on the Regime's side.

It is ironic (the wrong definition) that Trump has become a victim of Perception mattering much more than the Truth, because he has built his life around that premise. And now due to Perception >> Truth, Iran has the most control they've ever had globally. Two months ago, Iran was a mild belligerent responsible for supporting occasional acts of terrorism as well as the October 7th massacre (I'm not minimizing the attacks, just indicating the scope and field of influence was limited). Today, they can make the entire globe hurt without firing as much as a single bullet.

Which means that it is vital to make this tactic as painful for the Regime as possible.
Trump is correct in at least one aspect here - the Strait of Hormuz is Regime's sole strategic asset.

Realistically, the only way to reopen Hormuz is to have Iran agree not to target ships transiting those waters.

They are certainly not going to agree out of goodness of their hearts.
So we either make them, or foolishly give them enough concessions for them to agree. The latter option would be foolish.

There is lies the rub. Hormuz is never going to reopen like it was before. Unless Israel, the US, and Iran magically stop existing, those days are in the rear view mirror.

Iran does not have to stop existing, just the regime. And even without regime change, I think they will agree to go to status quo ante if the alternative is too painful. No "we'll give you $2M per ship" but "we'll close Kharg for business. How do you like them apples?". Peace through strength, not appeasement and half-measures. And certainly the only TACO Tuesdays we should tolerate are the ones with tortillas filled with tasty ingredients!

What do you mean? It worked recently in Gaza and Ukraine. That is why Hamas no longer exists and Russia rules Ukraine.

Hamas has been greatly diminished. Sure, they still rule the pile of rubble that is western Gaza Strip. But they have lost tens of thousands of fighters, including many senior commanders. Most of their tunnel network and offensive capabilities are destroyed. I would call that "it worked". The rest is up to the people of Gaza. They can embrace Hamas and their Ilk and continue to suffer, or they can reject their ideology and seek a peaceful coexistence. But in the absence of that, military action worked in the sense of greatly reducing the danger that Hamas poses to Israel.

 

[Derec]

Has anyone mentioned that bringing back the draft is being considered.

That would require an act of Congress. So, it's unlikely to happen even if it were needed, which I do not think it will be.

Get your protests ready young ones and start to realize what boomers had to deal with during the Viet Nam War. Sadly, this could be even worse! Soon, you will be using our hippy slang, not that I think we currently have any members here who are young enough to be drafted, but some of you might have kids who are.

I do not have kids myself, but know a 20-something who is afraid that the draft is coming because of all the nonsense on social media he is watching. And no, automatic selective service registration (which should be extended to young women as well) does not mean the draft is being reinstated.

Have Bannon go first, assuming he has no bone spurs.

Bannon? He is 72. Do you mean Barron?