Yet another war, this time with Iran

[ZiprHead]

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10 day ceasefire.

 

[Toni]

The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?

Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.

What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

That isn't the goal. The goal is to try and goad them into firing on one of our ships

I know we in the west are accustomed to believing that Iranians are nothing but a bunch of religious ideologues stuck in the 14th century, too backward to understand much or care about anything beyond their religious beliefs. As weird as it is to write this, in this situation, Iran is the rational one. They don’t want to destroy the world. Trump will have no problem destroying the world. If he has an excuse.

There is no "the Iranians", any more than there is "the Americans". Every nation and every government on Earth is filled with every kind of person imaginable.

Unfortunately, a few fingers on a few triggers can cause an awful lot of trouble for all of us.

Of course the world is comprised of unique individuals. But it takes a great deal of naïveté or willful blindness to believe that it requires every individual comprising a group to agree on everything it even most things for that group to share a common goal, mindset, group or national identity.

Do I believe that most Iranians want war with..,anyone, much less the US? No. Nor do I believe that most Americans want to have a war with Iran or Cuba or whoever else dementor in chief decides must be obliterated.

My point is quite the opposite. "Serbia" did not shoot Archduke Ferdinand. One frightened, angry teenager did. Austrians did not declare war in response. Their government did. And well over 200 million people died over the next thirty years as a result. Not really Princip's fault. But we designed a social system that guaranteed millions of deaths in retribution for such an act. Of our response to notorious events is uncompromising war, it quickly ceases to matter what Iranians want or what Americans want or what Russians want or what Vietnamese people want or what anyone at all wants. Most people in most countries just want to live in peace, do their jobs, raise their families. Once the shelling starts, that opportunity is denied them.

There are still opportunities. Many of them do involve violence and they all involve risk. Conscientious objectors avoided combat, for example.

Most people do want to live in peace —and safety or at least the illusion of safety or as much safety as one can have in life.

People make choices about the type of governance they want. In the US, people chose a demented madman somehow believing anything he says, despite his well documented record of falsehoods, deceptions and frauds. Not enough people are demanding he be removed from office or that Hegseth be removed from office. Enough Iranians are willing to put up with their Ayatollah, whichever one is in power at that point in time. Both nations are choosing extremism. It is shameful to me that the US has done so and fails to recognize how little different Trump is from Hitler and other extremism’s or how similar Project 2025 is to shariah law.

 

[Derec]

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10 day ceasefire.

But will Hezbollah honor it?

 

[laughing dog]

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10 day ceasefire.

But will Hezbollah honor it?

Will Israel?

 

[Shadowy Man]

Getting rid of regime that relies on Islamic terrorism as main source of international clout would be in their long-term interest too. .

And when exactly is this regime change going to happen? What actions are yet to be undertaken by the American military to implement this change?

 

[Derec]

Will Israel?

If your Hezbos do, sure.

Speaking of Hezbollah, they are storing weapons in schools.

IDF uncovers Hezbollah arsenal stashed inside southern Lebanon school

That's a war crime.

 

[Derec]

And when exactly is this regime change going to happen?

What would be necessary is weakening of IRGC, along with coordinating with opposition elements inside Iran.
Possibly, regular military could eventually join the opposition and against IRGC.

What actions are yet to be undertaken by the American military to implement this change?

Unfortunately, TACO likely does not have the persistence to keep pressure on the Regime.

 

[Derec]

if it makes you feel better to think being held accountable for your wirds as “splitting hairs”, then fine.

I am more interested in holding Politesse etc. to their words.

Neither poster said anything that remotely suggests such a thing. I think it should be obvious that both are saying both blockades are wrong.

Yes, they did suggest such a thing. It is clear to anyone with any reading comprehension skills.

 

[Derec]

The fuck. I'm looking at this pragmatically, not in some sort of Hollywood film ending sort of way.

Even with Hollywood films, a lot depends on the genre.

Iran blocked the Strait. That isn't good, it isn't legal, we can't do fuck all to stop it.

Not in the short term. But we can pound their missile and drone infrastructure, including factories used to make them.
We can counterblockade, harming Iran's exports and thus their economy.

When you know that a bully will fight back unfair when confronted, you need to do the damn math.

And be willing to persist, rather than cower and give up at the first sign of trouble.

And now Trump is blockading oil to China potentially.

Afaik, they let through a China-bound tanker from UAE. Only ships from Iranian ports are blockaded.

You're obsessed with "being right" instead of "real world consequences" that we aren't capable of stopping.

Whatever you may think of Trump starting this war, the real world consequences of Iran emerging stronger from it would be disastrous. That's why we must not allow it to happen, even if it means a prolonged conflict.

State sponsor of terrorism closes strait after being attacked and their theocratic leader killed... no fucking kidding. And Trump had no plan for stopping it.

Counterblockade is not a bad move. I am just afraid that he will negotiate some rotten deal comparable to the JCPOA, declare "mission accomplished" and move on to the next shiny thing.

 

[Politesse]

I am more interested in holding Politesse etc. to their words.

What words? I never said the things you said I said.

 

[Derec]

Again, this is what you wrote:

Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.

[emphasis mine]
So, according to you, when the islamofascist Regime does it, it's "their waters", but when we are doing it's "piracy".