Yet another war, this time with Iran

[bilby]

Trump and the US and Israel were not remotely close to the objective. They barely got to "far away" from the objective. So they shifted goalposts to make this about nuclear weapons to save face.

...which would be less pathetic if the war hadn't made it more likely, rather than less, that Iran will build a nuclear weapon sooner rather than later.

The take away lessons for Iran are:

1) Negotiating in good faith with the Great Satan over nuclear weapons will get you sucker-punched mid-conference

2) Having a nuclear weapon scares the crap out of the Great Satan

3) Nuclear weapons states don't get attacked by the Great Satan

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Iranian theocracy is having to spin getting their ass whooped. If not for the economic consequences of Hormuz, Iran would be a whipped dog at this point.

So... They suffered quite a lot of damage, and if they hadn't have been able to win, they would be the losers right now?

This is meant domestically.

How is that not true of the winners of literally every war in history?

The difference is, I'm referring to Iran's repeated "We gonna rock your asses with holy cans of whoop ass" militarily (I'm paraphrasing), when they didn't... remotely. The Iran Theocracy used geography and resilience to come out at status quo levels. Yes, it counts the same, but their military related bravado is absolute bullshit. The US and Israel failed in just about every important goal that was intended to be achieved, and in that... and dropping some mines and loosing some cheap armaments, Iran won-ish. Really no one comes out of this any better.

 

[bilby]

U.S., Iran have reached a deal to end fighting, Trump and mediator Pakistan say, President Donald Trump earlier urged all parties not to “blow it” after Israel’s attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs further complicated the prospects of reaching a deal.

I don't get what they're supposed to be negotiating about. Trump said that if Iran murders more of it's own citizens Trump will attack.

Ok, Trump did that.

He can just stop. He's already made his point. Trump can stop shooting rockets and drones without looking like a failure. Iran now knows that they can't just murder their own people with zero repurcussions.

Have I missed something?

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how Trump can spin it if he unilaterely backs off. Dragging this out just akes Trump look bad. So why is he?

I don't understand why he needs a deal? What exactly are they negotiating about?

You still don’t get it.

Trump flies by the seat of his pants. From his history, it is clear he has no shame because nothing is his fault. He believes he can sell anything.

Trump’s party is afraid of losing its majorities in the House and the Senate, and they lay the blame on the war in Iran effects on the economy and cost of living.

So what is he hoping the Iranians will agree to?

He would presumably want enrichment to end, inspections, and enriched material to be confiscated. Also, free and unobstructed access to the Strait of Hormuz for shipping.

...and a unicorn. No, two unicorns. And a real live dragon.

 

[bilby]

The difference is, I'm referring to Iran's repeated "We gonna rock your asses with holy cans of whoop ass" militarily (I'm paraphrasing), when they didn't... remotely. The Iran Theocracy used geography and resilience to come out at status quo levels. Yes, it counts the same, but their military related bravado is absolute bullshit. The US and Israel failed in just about every important goal that was intended to be achieved, and in that... and dropping some mines and loosing some cheap armaments, Iran won-ish. Really no one comes out of this any better.

Iran has always (since the revolution) made absurd military threats that they have no intention of actually carrying out.

It's always been bullshit.

The smart move is to roll your eyes and ignore it. So obviously Trump was never going to do that.

 

[aupmanyav]

So what is he hoping the Iranians will agree to?

Trump wants the Iranians to sign the paper, whatever conditions they put on it. Then, he can explain that to the US people in his wonderful way as to why was that.

 

[DrZoidberg]

U.S., Iran have reached a deal to end fighting, Trump and mediator Pakistan say, President Donald Trump earlier urged all parties not to “blow it” after Israel’s attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs further complicated the prospects of reaching a deal.

I don't get what they're supposed to be negotiating about. Trump said that if Iran murders more of it's own citizens Trump will attack.

Ok, Trump did that.

He can just stop. He's already made his point. Trump can stop shooting rockets and drones without looking like a failure. Iran now knows that they can't just murder their own people with zero repurcussions.

Have I missed something?

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how Trump can spin it if he unilaterely backs off. Dragging this out just akes Trump look bad. So why is he?

I don't understand why he needs a deal? What exactly are they negotiating about?

You still don’t get it.

Trump flies by the seat of his pants. From his history, it is clear he has no shame because nothing is his fault. He believes he can sell anything.

Trump’s party is afraid of losing its majorities in the House and the Senate, and they lay the blame on the war in Iran effects on the economy and cost of living.

So what is he hoping the Iranians will agree to?

He would presumably want enrichment to end, inspections, and enriched material to be confiscated. Also, free and unobstructed access to the Strait of Hormuz for shipping.

But Iran has already agreed to

U.S., Iran have reached a deal to end fighting, Trump and mediator Pakistan say, President Donald Trump earlier urged all parties not to “blow it” after Israel’s attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs further complicated the prospects of reaching a deal.

I don't get what they're supposed to be negotiating about. Trump said that if Iran murders more of it's own citizens Trump will attack.

Ok, Trump did that.

He can just stop. He's already made his point. Trump can stop shooting rockets and drones without looking like a failure. Iran now knows that they can't just murder their own people with zero repurcussions.

Have I missed something?

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how Trump can spin it if he unilaterely backs off. Dragging this out just akes Trump look bad. So why is he?

Narcissistic pride. The goal was not remotely achieved. In fact, Trump and Netanyahu helped make the Theocracy stronger globally.

Remind me again what his goal is?

Overthrowing the theocracy.

USA isn't putting boots on the ground. That was never a realistic option. Not even Trump can be that naive

I don't understand why he needs a deal? What exactly are they negotiating about?

Trump opened Pandora's box with the Strait of Hormuz. Something needs to be settled about it. Sadly, this "deal" is just a possibly enhanced ceasefire, not an actual agreement to end what Israel and USA started.

But why would Iran keep the straight closed if Trump stops shooting rockets?

The Strait is closed in part because the US was blockading Iran. Are you even paying attention to the news?

again... why would Iran keep it closed if USA backs off? Try to focus on the question, please

 

[DrZoidberg]

The difference is, I'm referring to Iran's repeated "We gonna rock your asses with holy cans of whoop ass" militarily (I'm paraphrasing), when they didn't... remotely. The Iran Theocracy used geography and resilience to come out at status quo levels. Yes, it counts the same, but their military related bravado is absolute bullshit. The US and Israel failed in just about every important goal that was intended to be achieved, and in that... and dropping some mines and loosing some cheap armaments, Iran won-ish. Really no one comes out of this any better.

Iran has always (since the revolution) made absurd military threats that they have no intention of actually carrying out.

It's always been bullshit.

The smart move is to roll your eyes and ignore it. So obviously Trump was never going to do that.

Sure. But when someone makes threats of war its cool to drone strike them.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So a whole lot of rewinding.
14 Point Plan

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

U.S., Iran have reached a deal to end fighting, Trump and mediator Pakistan say, President Donald Trump earlier urged all parties not to “blow it” after Israel’s attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs further complicated the prospects of reaching a deal.

I don't get what they're supposed to be negotiating about. Trump said that if Iran murders more of it's own citizens Trump will attack.

Ok, Trump did that.

He can just stop. He's already made his point. Trump can stop shooting rockets and drones without looking like a failure. Iran now knows that they can't just murder their own people with zero repurcussions.

Have I missed something?

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how Trump can spin it if he unilaterely backs off. Dragging this out just akes Trump look bad. So why is he?

Narcissistic pride. The goal was not remotely achieved. In fact, Trump and Netanyahu helped make the Theocracy stronger globally.

Remind me again what his goal is?

Overthrowing the theocracy.

USA isn't putting boots on the ground. That was never a realistic option. Not even Trump can be that naive

This has already been reported on. This was the entire point of the entire operation... why Israel assassinated the former leader... why Trump told Iranian Kurds and the Iranians to rise up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So a whole lot of rewinding.
14 Point Plan

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

So, if the US sends a carrier into the region, Iran can close the Strait.

Who the fuck wrote this? This document speaks to Iran having the leverage in the write-up.

 

[DrZoidberg]

U.S., Iran have reached a deal to end fighting, Trump and mediator Pakistan say, President Donald Trump earlier urged all parties not to “blow it” after Israel’s attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs further complicated the prospects of reaching a deal.

I don't get what they're supposed to be negotiating about. Trump said that if Iran murders more of it's own citizens Trump will attack.

Ok, Trump did that.

He can just stop. He's already made his point. Trump can stop shooting rockets and drones without looking like a failure. Iran now knows that they can't just murder their own people with zero repurcussions.

Have I missed something?

Yes. You think Trump had a point.

That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how Trump can spin it if he unilaterely backs off. Dragging this out just akes Trump look bad. So why is he?

Narcissistic pride. The goal was not remotely achieved. In fact, Trump and Netanyahu helped make the Theocracy stronger globally.

Remind me again what his goal is?

Overthrowing the theocracy.

USA isn't putting boots on the ground. That was never a realistic option. Not even Trump can be that naive

This has already been reported on. This was the entire point of the entire operation... why Israel assassinated the former leader... why Trump told Iranian Kurds and the Iranians to rise up.

That's not how I remember it. What I remember is that Trump said that if you don't stop murdering your own people you'll regret it. Or something along those lines that's barely coherrent. Iran then didn't stop murdering their own people and then Israel shot a drone on a cabinet meeting room with all the Iranian big wigs, not taking any precautions, what so ever. And then Iran hit back.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So a whole lot of rewinding.
14 Point Plan

9. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

So, if the US sends a carrier into the region, Iran can close the Strait.

Who the fuck wrote this? This document speaks to Iran having the leverage in the write-up.

There is routinely one carrier group in/near the Persian Gulf.

2. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

Too grey an area. So no spies within Iran and is US and Israeli spycraft essentially one and the same here?

But it's a whole lot of nothing as far as the old issues go. There will immediately be accusations flying back and forth between Iran and Israel. Trump's concern will be to make it all look peaceful and stable until November then it can all go to hell again for all he will care. It's like John Bolton said, it's just about the oil with Trump.
But
Human rights
Nuclear pursuits
Brutal regime
Crickets

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Remind me again what his goal is?

Overthrowing the theocracy.

USA isn't putting boots on the ground. That was never a realistic option. Not even Trump can be that naive

This has already been reported on. This was the entire point of the entire operation... why Israel assassinated the former leader... why Trump told Iranian Kurds and the Iranians to rise up.

That's not how I remember it.

It is what actually happened, not too long ago either. Israel went for the head. That was the plan.

In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic.

At one point, the Israelis played for Mr. Trump a brief video that included a montage of potential new leaders who could take over the country if the hard-line government fell. Among those featured was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, now a Washington-based dissident who had tried to position himself as a secular leader who could shepherd Iran toward a post-theocratic government.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And Trump is angry the "plan" was leaked and is threatening bombing Iran again.

Details of a 14 point plan have now been leaked to multiple media outlets, though Trump insisted Wednesday that the so-called memorandum of understanding is not final and issued new threats if he wasn't happy with the agreement.

"If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head," Trump, at the G7 summit in France. "If I don't like it, if they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head, OK?"

If they don't behave? This was signed... wasn't it? And now Trump is saying the memo wasn't final.

Trump is upset because the leak confirms that this deal was written in such a way that Iran is getting a great deal out of this, and the US isn't really getting much at all. The GOP is going to have an even tougher time swallowing this. I still can't get over the $300 billion financing. Who put that in there?

 

[DrZoidberg]

Remind me again what his goal is?

Overthrowing the theocracy.

USA isn't putting boots on the ground. That was never a realistic option. Not even Trump can be that naive

This has already been reported on. This was the entire point of the entire operation... why Israel assassinated the former leader... why Trump told Iranian Kurds and the Iranians to rise up.

That's not how I remember it.

It is what actually happened, not too long ago either. Israel went for the head. That was the plan.

In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic.

At one point, the Israelis played for Mr. Trump a brief video that included a montage of potential new leaders who could take over the country if the hard-line government fell. Among those featured was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, now a Washington-based dissident who had tried to position himself as a secular leader who could shepherd Iran toward a post-theocratic government.

I remember people saying that at the time. But that was just babble. Nobody believed it to be true. I find it incredible either Trump or Netanyahu believed that. The last couple of years Netanyahu has proven to be one of the sharpest political minds in the world. We might not agree with his politics. But he absolutely knows how to read a chess board. I simply don't accept that he either believed that or even told Trump it would work. That would be retarded.

Revolutions are unpredictable. They start for unpredictable reasons and they develop in ways we in hindsight will understand... but won't at the time.

The Pahlavi flag is a strong opositional symbol. Just because Iranians wave the Pahlavi flag doesn't NOT mean they want Reza Pahlavi back. That's naive. His father was an authoritarian despot and an incompetent and weak leader. Hardly an improvement over what they have now. That's not going to happen.

This bit in the article stands out.

"Mr. Netanyahu acknowledged these but made one central point: In his view, the risks of inaction were greater than the risks of action."

I certainly believe that is true. A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it. It's good they got attacked. Allowing Iran to keep threatening it's neighbours (especially Israel) makes the interntional community look weak. That's dangerous for world peace. So whether or not the US attack leads to a new government, I still think attacking Iran was a net positive for the world. At least now the Ayatollah understand he's not untouchable. That's a good thing IMHO

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Remind me again what his goal is?

Overthrowing the theocracy.

USA isn't putting boots on the ground. That was never a realistic option. Not even Trump can be that naive

This has already been reported on. This was the entire point of the entire operation... why Israel assassinated the former leader... why Trump told Iranian Kurds and the Iranians to rise up.

That's not how I remember it.

It is what actually happened, not too long ago either. Israel went for the head. That was the plan.

In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic.

At one point, the Israelis played for Mr. Trump a brief video that included a montage of potential new leaders who could take over the country if the hard-line government fell. Among those featured was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, now a Washington-based dissident who had tried to position himself as a secular leader who could shepherd Iran toward a post-theocratic government.

I remember people saying that at the time. But that was just babble.

Babble in the sense of confirmed reports.

Nobody believed it to be true. I find it incredible either Trump or Netanyahu believed that.

You find it hard to believe Trump could believe something that was ridiculous? I'm uncertain where your faith in his foreign policy competence comes from.

The last couple of years Netanyahu has proven to be one of the sharpest political minds in the world. We might not agree with his politics. But he absolutely knows how to read a chess board. I simply don't accept that he either believed that or even told Trump it would work. That would be retarded.

Yet, here we are.

All we have to judge what happened is the words of those who were there when it happened and the actions taken. Israel's military targeted the main leadership of Iran in order to eliminate them, and we was rather successful in that. The United States bombed military stuff while Israel aimed at the head of the leadership pyramid. The US then followed this up with a strategic but seemingly pointless bombardment of targets that one goes for when trying to establish air dominance... something done before landing boots on the ground, something the US would have needed 12 to 24 months to mobilize for an actual military action against Iran. So the US military was apparently attacking targets, just to be doing something. Trump called on Iran to rise up. Trump called on the Kurds to rise up.

Worse yet, the US didn't even have anything in place or even on paper for preventing the closure of Hormuz. Implying they thought this thing would be over quick, with no one to retaliate.

It was a $30 billion Bay of Pigs to the Googol. The Bay of Pigs was embarrassing. This who Iran thing has put the global economy on potential implosion and empowered Iran. Economic straits on the Planet have been put on notice as well.

Your suggestion that something being stupid means it couldn't possibly be true ignores reality that says stupid happens all the time.

 

[crazyfingers]

Text of the "deal".

Iran sure gets a lot.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is what actually happened, not too long ago either. Israel went for the head. That was the plan.

In the Situation Room on Feb. 11, Mr. Netanyahu made a hard sell, suggesting that Iran was ripe for regime change and expressing the belief that a joint U.S.-Israeli mission could finally bring an end to the Islamic Republic.

At one point, the Israelis played for Mr. Trump a brief video that included a montage of potential new leaders who could take over the country if the hard-line government fell. Among those featured was Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, now a Washington-based dissident who had tried to position himself as a secular leader who could shepherd Iran toward a post-theocratic government.

I remember people saying that at the time. But that was just babble. Nobody believed it to be true. I find it incredible either Trump or Netanyahu believed that. The last couple of years Netanyahu has proven to be one of the sharpest political minds in the world. We might not agree with his politics. But he absolutely knows how to read a chess board. I simply don't accept that he either believed that or even told Trump it would work. That would be retarded.

Yeh, this guy is completely above board!

 

[Playball40]

It says Iran won't produce a nuclear weapon. Doesn't say they won't buy one.

 

[crazyfingers]

It says Iran won't produce a nuclear weapon. Doesn't say they won't buy one.

It says Iran wont "procure or develop" nuclear weapons. Procure would include not buying.