Yet another war, this time with Iran

[bilby]

A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it.

Do you therefore support a US/Israeli strike on North Korea, too?

Countries can and will behave in any way their governments choose, until that government is overthrown. If you want to overthrow a government, you need strong support in the country in question. Israel and the US have no such support in Iran - the Iranians hate them more than they hated the Ayatollahs, and they even hate them more than they hate the IRGC.

For the US and Israel to intervene was always and obviously going to make things worse, not better. And so it has been.

Bibi dreamed of a fantasy world where the oppressed Persian people rose up and demanded US assistance to set up a secular state that no longer feels any animosity towards Israel. This is so absurd that it is more a crazy delusion than a dream. It ain't ever gonna happen.

A country observably can "be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it", as long as its proxy wars are sufficiently at arms length, and sufficiently ineffective, as to make all out, WWII-style, boots-on-the-ground, millions of lives sacrificed, total war unpalatable for those who have the might to consider such action.

Israel hasn't the military might to invade and subjugate Iran. The USA maybe does (though such invasions are a lot harder than they may appear; Just ask Mad Vlad); However the US does not have the stomach for the loss of millions of American service personnel, and a multi-year war, just to stamp out a few terrorists who are (mostly) not even attacking the US itself.

A large multinational coalition, with a clear objective to secure the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb against Iranian and Iranian-backed interference, and to force Tehran to cease supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, might be able to do something usefull, but even just forming such a coalition would be extremely hard, and getting them to act militarily in a coordinated way, rather than persuing separate interests, would be near impossible.

Not only is it untrue that:

A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it.

... it is also very difficult to envisage any practical way in which they might be stopped, without the cure being far worse than the disease.

 

[Tigers!]

again... why would Iran keep it closed if USA backs off? Try to focus on the question, please

Why would Iran wish to close the straits?

• Angry with USA
• Angry with EU
• Angry with Israel
• Angry with any/all of the Gulf States
• Angry with Australia (just for completeness)
• Angry with ??????

The US could back off. That does not guarantee that Iran will not block the Straits.

 

[Tigers!]

A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it.

Do you therefore support a US/Israeli strike on North Korea, too?

Countries can and will behave in any way their governments choose, until that government is overthrown. If you want to overthrow a government, you need strong support in the country in question. Israel and the US have no such support in Iran - the Iranians hate them more than they hated the Ayatollahs, and they even hate them more than they hate the IRGC.

For the US and Israel to intervene was always and obviously going to make things worse, not better. And so it has been.

Bibi dreamed of a fantasy world where the oppressed Persian people rose up and demanded US assistance to set up a secular state that no longer feels any animosity towards Israel. This is so absurd that it is more a crazy delusion than a dream. It ain't ever gonna happen.

A country observably can "be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it", as long as its proxy wars are sufficiently at arms length, and sufficiently ineffective, as to make all out, WWII-style, boots-on-the-ground, millions of lives sacrificed, total war unpalatable for those who have the might to consider such action.

Israel hasn't the military might to invade and subjugate Iran. The USA maybe does (though such invasions are a lot harder than they may appear; Just ask Mad Vlad); However the US does not have the stomach for the loss of millions of American service personnel, and a multi-year war, just to stamp out a few terrorists who are (mostly) not even attacking the US itself.

A large multinational coalition, with a clear objective to secure the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb against Iranian and Iranian-backed interference, and to force Tehran to cease supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, might be able to do something usefull, but even just forming such a coalition would be extremely hard, and getting them to act militarily in a coordinated way, rather than persuing separate interests, would be near impossible.

Indeed

Not only is it untrue that:

A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it.

... it is also very difficult to envisage any practical way in which they might be stopped, without the cure being far worse than the disease.

Was WW2 worse that letting Hitler and any hangers on having free rein in Europe or anywhere else? Just a counterfactual question.

 

[laughing dog]

It says Iran won't produce a nuclear weapon. Doesn't say they won't buy one.

It says Iran wont "procure or develop" nuclear weapons. Procure would include not buying.

What about receiving nuclear weapons as a gift?

 

[Tigers!]

It says Iran won't produce a nuclear weapon. Doesn't say they won't buy one.

It says Iran wont "procure or develop" nuclear weapons. Procure would include not buying.

What about receiving nuclear weapons as a gift?

Ah yes. The gift that keeps on giving.

 

[bilby]

Was WW2 worse that letting Hitler and any hangers on having free rein in Europe or anywhere else?

It seems unlikely, but then, Hitler actually had that free rein. If Iran and her proxies had the ability to round up the population of Israel and send them to extermination camps, then a WWII level conflict to liberate Israel would undoubtedly be justified.

But while their actual ability is limited to very occassional incursions with no more than a few dozen victims, it probably isn't worth sacrificing a generation of young men to defeat them in a total war.

Particularly as there are plenty of lesser defensive measures that can be taken instead.

 

[bilby]

It says Iran won't produce a nuclear weapon. Doesn't say they won't buy one.

It says Iran wont "procure or develop" nuclear weapons. Procure would include not buying.

What about receiving nuclear weapons as a gift?

But wait, there's more! Order in the next five minutes, and you will not only get the Main Battle Tanks and the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile for one low, low, price; We will throw in a nuclear warhead for the missile, absolutely FREE!! Call now on the number on your screen to take advantage of this spectacular offer!!!

 

[Tigers!]

It says Iran won't produce a nuclear weapon. Doesn't say they won't buy one.

It says Iran wont "procure or develop" nuclear weapons. Procure would include not buying.

What about receiving nuclear weapons as a gift?

But wait, there's more! Order in the next five minutes, and you will not only get the Main Battle Tanks and the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile for one low, low, price; We will throw in a nuclear warhead for the missile, absolutely FREE!! Call now on the number on your screen 1800-TRUMP to take advantage of this spectacular offer!!! Outside the USA call 1800-KIM. 1st 250 USA callers get a free trip to Epstein Is.

FIFY

 

[DrZoidberg]

again... why would Iran keep it closed if USA backs off? Try to focus on the question, please

Why would Iran wish to close the straits?

• Angry with USA
• Angry with EU
• Angry with Israel
• Angry with any/all of the Gulf States
• Angry with Australia (just for completeness)
• Angry with ??????

The US could back off. That does not guarantee that Iran will not block the Straits.

That's forcing the worlds hand. China will have an incentive to join a coalition against Iran. That's not good for Iran. Keeping it closed would be a death sentance for Iran

 

[steve_bank]

The old book and movie The Mouse That Roared comes to mind.

The Duchy Of Grand Fenwick is out of money and the palace needs repairs

They decide to send a rickety boat6 across the Atlantic, go ashore invading NYC, and immediately surrender. Thinking that the USA always gives money to defeated enemies.

A Cold War satire. Too bad Peter Sellers is not around to do a mockery of Trump.

The Mouse That Roared (film) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

As far as I can tell Iran wins. Hormuz was open at the start of the war. Iran may be getting its frozen assets back and some kind of reconstruction fund.

Trump said w Iran would roll over and play dead, aint gonna happen.

 

[aupmanyav]

The US could back off. That does not guarantee that Iran will not block the Straits.

They would not block, they will charge a 'fee'.

What about receiving nuclear weapons as a gift?

Even if they get it as a gift, using them will be suicide. They are good for decoration.

 

[DrZoidberg]

A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it.

Do you therefore support a US/Israeli strike on North Korea, too?

I don't think its relevant to this conversation. North Korea is under Chinese protection

Countries can and will behave in any way their governments choose, until that government is overthrown. If you want to overthrow a government, you need strong support in the country in question. Israel and the US have no such support in Iran - the Iranians hate them more than they hated the Ayatollahs, and they even hate them more than they hate the IRGC.

I think Iranians in general are fine with Israel. Most don't care. A lot like Israel just because their government tells them not to.

The Ayatollah lost the people a long time ago.

For the US and Israel to intervene was always and obviously going to make things worse, not better. And so it has been.

Bibi dreamed of a fantasy world where the oppressed Persian people rose up and demanded US assistance to set up a secular state that no longer feels any animosity towards Israel. This is so absurd that it is more a crazy delusion than a dream. It ain't ever gonna happen.

Why do you think Netanyahu thought that?

Trump might have thought it.

A country observably can "be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it", as long as its proxy wars are sufficiently at arms length, and sufficiently ineffective, as to make all out, WWII-style, boots-on-the-ground, millions of lives sacrificed, total war unpalatable for those who have the might to consider such action.

Israel hasn't the military might to invade and subjugate Iran. The USA maybe does (though such invasions are a lot harder than they may appear; Just ask Mad Vlad); However the US does not have the stomach for the loss of millions of American service personnel, and a multi-year war, just to stamp out a few terrorists who are (mostly) not even attacking the US itself.

Exactly. You seem to understand why your scenario is unlikely. So perhaps its not that

I think Israel wanted to take revenge on the 7/10 attack. Hit Iran where it hurt to dissuade them of doing another attack again.

FYI, Israel has considered itself at war with Iran since 7/10. They had no illusions about who was to blame

A large multinational coalition, with a clear objective to secure the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb against Iranian and Iranian-backed interference, and to force Tehran to cease supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, might be able to do something usefull, but even just forming such a coalition would be extremely hard, and getting them to act militarily in a coordinated way, rather than persuing separate interests, would be near impossible.

Yeah. So this was obviously not the plan

Not only is it untrue that:

A country can't be allowed to keep behaving like Iran and just get away with it.

... it is also very difficult to envisage any practical way in which they might be stopped, without the cure being far worse than the disease.

In the case of Iran I couldn't imagine a cure worse than the current regime. I don't have that kind of imagination.

 

[laughing dog]

For the US and Israel to intervene was always and obviously going to make things worse, not better. And so it has been.

Bibi dreamed of a fantasy world where the oppressed Persian people rose up and demanded US assistance to set up a secular state that no longer feels any animosity towards Israel. This is so absurd that it is more a crazy delusion than a dream. It ain't ever gonna happen.

Why do you think Netanyahu thought that?

Trump might have thought it.

As has been reported, Trump thought it because Netanyahu told him.

 

[steve_bank]

The Korean War is not over, there has never been an agreement to end it. The NK policy has been reunification by force if necessary., but has backed off.

Seoul is only about 50 miles from the DMZ. NK could level Seoul with artillery, rockets, and misses before anyone cud respond. It has always been a standoff.

China has said if NK starts hostilities it will stay out of it.

Iran has been getting away with bad behavior, but so has Israel from its founding.

As I expected Netanyahu is now saying fuck the USA and everybody else, Israel will not give up occurred land.

Trump expects Iran to stop supporting Hamas while Israel keeps taking Palestinian land.

It was a standoff due to Hormuz and Trump upset the apple cart. Israel sucked him into war. The Obama agreement was probably the best that is possible.

Any peace agreement will not last unless Israel is reigned in. Israel has said it is looking for support, distancing from USA.

Russia, China, India could become the arms suppliers.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Wow. This deal is humiliating for Trump. What a shit sandwich he's willingly eating

US and Iranian presidents sign deal aiming to end war

The fate of Iran's nuclear programme, a key reason cited by the US for starting the conflict, is still to be negotiated.

www.bbc.com

 

[DrZoidberg]

Iran has been getting away with bad behavior, but so has Israel from its founding.

As I expected Netanyahu is now saying fuck the USA and everybody else, Israel will not give up occurred land.

Israeli conservatives (which Netanyahu belongs) think Israel should take as much as possible. Why? Because they think the world is antisemitic, will hate Jews no matter what, and Israel as it looks now is an indefensible position. Basically, unless Israel controlls the Golan heights Syria or Jordan can park artillery there and flatten Israel before they have time to react. Their arguments are primarly pragmatic rather than religious, natuonalistic nor ethnic.

The Israeli left has the same opinions as the European left.

I'd say the world reaction after the 7/10 proved Netanyahu correct. The world is antisemitic and Israel being fair is a waste of time for them. That will only lead to Jewish suffering.

All evidence suggests that no matter what Israel does the Arabs will want to exterminate them. Appeasing them is a waste of time.

I'd say the actions of the Netanyahu government rational and pragmatic. If we want Israel to play nice we've got to give them incentives to do so. That hasn't happened and doesn't look like it ever will

Trump expects Iran to stop supporting Hamas while Israel keeps taking Palestinian land.

Hitting Iran where it hurts until Iran stops supporting Hamas, might not work. But I think its excellent that USA tries to. Even if it doesn't work, USA has put weight behind their words. That's not nothing.

I don't think Iran cares one iota about the Palestian people. I don't think they care what more land Israel grabs. Their problem is with Jews being uppity and think they're worthy of respect as equals. They want the holy land to be run by Muslims

It was a standoff due to Hormuz and Trump upset the apple cart. Israel sucked him into war. The Obama agreement was probably the best that is possible.

Any peace agreement will not last unless Israel is reigned in. Israel has said it is looking for support, distancing from USA.

Peace with Muslims doesn't seem to be possible until every Jew in the holy land exterminated. That seems to be the only thing that will satisfy the Muslims. Unless that's the kind of "reigning in" you have in mind I think you are just fantasizing

Russia, China, India could become the arms suppliers.

These guys all just want to make a buck. They'll sell to anyone who can pay

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Wow. This deal is humiliating for Trump. What a shit sandwich he's willingly eating

US and Iranian presidents sign deal aiming to end war

The fate of Iran's nuclear programme, a key reason cited by the US for starting the conflict, is still to be negotiated.

www.bbc.com

.

Clearly this didn't happen because it us stupid

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Meanwhile, CNN article gives Trump a really good oral servicing.

Trump’s comment, in France, was a revealing moment. It shows how, under political pressure, he often grasps for short-term advantage over the long-term strategic grind. And it underscores his reverence for the wisdom of the markets, which he said were “more brilliant” than any of his advisers “other than me, of course.”

...

But in his epiphany about the cost of the war, he might finally have found what he’s been looking for almost since launching the conflict in February: a way out.

The article then generally tries its hardest to say it isn't that bad, but then says, it could actually be extremely bad.

Trump's Shart of The Deal in all of its amazing glory. And this thing is still just a memo. He is talking like this is the agreement. It isn't. I think what the article gets the most wrong is that this is some sort of realization for Trump, not some guy got Trump in a corner and said the US will be in very bad economic times if the Strait doesn't open now.

 

[Gospel]

Vance is fixing to get blamed for this deal.

 

[Toni]

U.S., Iran have reached a deal to end fighting, Trump and mediator Pakistan say, President Donald Trump earlier urged all parties not to “blow it” after Israel’s attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs further complicated the prospects of reaching a deal.

I don't get what they're supposed to be negotiating about. Trump said that if Iran murders more of it's own citizens Trump will attack.

Ok, Trump did that.

He can just stop. He's already made his point. Trump can stop shooting rockets and drones without looking like a failure. Iran now knows that they can't just murder their own people with zero repurcussions.

Have I missed something?

There was no point except to try to make Trump look tough and to give Hegseth something to do.