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Yet another war, this time with Iran

 
 
 
Currently, Iran is telling boats that if they want to sail through, they need to do it Iran's way, which means not along the south coast. Glad this memo of understanding made it clear what an open Strait was.
 
Derec said:
The Mullahs brutally crushed that unrest, murdering tens of thousands. With some help from the US, including hitting IRGC assets, things might have turned differently.
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Another, more realistic, interpretation is "With the help of the US/Israel, the mullahs eliminated tens of thousands of their most ardent opponents and put the fear of God into the rest of them."
Tom
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
I would point out that the US stated the provocation was related to an imminent danger of nuclear development 3 weeks away. That turned out to be false.
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The US didn't state that until well into the conflict, after it became clear that the Iranian regime was not, in fact, going to fall.

As such, the claim that this was the provocation that led them to launch a surprise attack (while talks between the parties were ongoing) seems hollow.

The only claim about Iran's nuclear weapons program made by the US immediately before they (in concert with Israel) attacked the Iranian leadership, was that it had been "completely obliterated" during the earlier round of bombings.
 
crazyfingers said:
Trump has said this too many times for the Iranians to give two fucks.

Trump is such a loser.

“It is very possible that they will never learn!
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Will Trump ever learn?

The president warned that Iran “will no longer exist” should the US use more military action.
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Will Trump ever learn?

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Insert joke about Susan Collins here.
 
bilby said:
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
I would point out that the US stated the provocation was related to an imminent danger of nuclear development 3 weeks away. That turned out to be false.
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The US didn't state that until well into the conflict, after it became clear that the Iranian regime was not, in fact, going to fall.
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Indeed! This was never about "the bomb". That became the shifted goalpost after the Kurds and Iranians didn't march unto Tehran to remove the theocracy / IRGC from power and Israel succeeded in killing the leader, but not the entire power pyramid, something that was known wouldn't be possible.
bilby said:
As such, the claim that this was the provocation that led them to launch a surprise attack (while talks between the parties were ongoing) seems hollow.

The only claim about Iran's nuclear weapons program made by the US immediately before they (in concert with Israel) attacked the Iranian leadership, was that it had been "completely obliterated" during the earlier round of bombings.
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It is something that we needed to press another military strike to stop a nuclear weapons program that was wiped from the face of the Earth.
 
A tiny shred of potential good news could be that Lebanon and Isreal has agreed to peace pact that ousts Hezbollah from power. It sounds like the Lebanese are finally getting tired of the Hezbos causing war after war for them.
 
Harry Bosch said:
A tiny shred of potential good news could be that Lebanon and Isreal has agreed to peace pact that ousts Hezbollah from power. It sounds like the Lebanese are finally getting tired of the Hezbos causing war after war for them.
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Surprised it took them this long.
 
Harry Bosch said:
A tiny shred of potential good news could be that Lebanon and Isreal has agreed to peace pact that ousts Hezbollah from power. It sounds like the Lebanese are finally getting tired of the Hezbos causing war after war for them.
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Its a tad more complicated. Lebanon have racist laws against Palestinians. They're second class citizens, who lack access to basic social services. They're dependent on organisations like Hezbollah, (funded by Iran) to function at all. They make up about 5 % of the total population of Lebanon. These families have been living in Lebanon since 1948.

Lebanon is democratic, but has a pretty bizarre sectarian democratic system where each sect has a fixed number of seats in the parliament. Palestinians have zero seats in the parliament. None of the other sects have any incentive to let go of their slice of power. Which will perpetually lock out the Palestinians, giving them no other option than turning to Hezbollah, ie Iran for support.

If your choices are to die from starvation or be a willing stooge for Hezbollah, you're going go with Hezbollah.

For Iran, using Hezbollah as a tool to attack Israel is, pretty much, zero cost. They're already paying for it. Not to use that weapon would be a waste. And since it only impacts Israel, and not the rest of Lebanon.... the Lebanese don't care either. And when Israel hits back, for whatever bizarre reason the Lebanese people seem unable to connect the dots and blame Iran. Nope, they always just blame Israel and the Jews.

Just based on the dynamics of the country. Unless it changes, they're guaranteed to perpetually have the same probles with Hezbollah causing trouble for Israel, who will keep hitting back.

BTW, Lebanon was one of the few Middle-Eastern countries who didn't expell their Jews in 1948. So they also have a small Jewish population, who are guaranteed a disproportionate number of seats in the parliament, because there's so few left. That also creates tension.

Lebanon is a fucking mess. It's one of the most bizarre political systems in the world. They also barely have a harbour, because it exploded in one of the most bizarre accidents in world history. That's not good for a country who barely had any industry to begin with.
 
link

article said:
“I think it’s over,” Trump said at a meeting of NATO leaders, the morning after U.S. forces launched over 80 strikes on Iran in response to Iranian attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The president spoke after Iran launched heavy retaliation overnight, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps saying it had targeted 85 U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait on Wednesday, according to the semiofficial media outlet Fars.
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So, Trump is saying the ceasefire is over. We are pretty much losing count just how many times peace and no peace and utter destruction have been announced as going to be happening. Oil Markets surged* on the news. Traffic has been crossing through the Strait, but it is still isn't remotely what it was. Oil reserves have not been replenished or even started to be replenished, so we are still looking at an energy crisis cliff. I honestly have no idea what Trump et al are going to do with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The US really lacks leverage here. In order to force the Strait to be open, we'd need a notable (and expensive) military presence. Add to that, Trump settled at some outrageous demands early on in the memo of understanding, which is never a good thing to do in negotiations. We are in the weirdest of incompetent self-perpetuating quagmires, a quagmire of attrition. The Trump Admin and the IRGC are both playing chicken racing their cars towards the cliff... but they are already plummeting off of it.

There appears to be no way out of this, because the people involved are incredibly incompetent.

* 5% is "surging" to headline editors
 
After Trump started the war with Iran...

U.S. gave Tehran details on Iranian asylum seekers, lawsuit alleges

A lawsuit filed Tuesday in Washington alleges the Trump administration violated U.S. law by providing Iran’s government with confidential information detailing the asylum applications for Iranians it planned to deport.

The extraordinary claim, outlined in court papers submitted by the Iranian American Legal Defense Fund and Public Citizen Litigation Group, contends that the materials it alleges were shared with the Iranian government could jeopardize the lives of pro-democracy protesters along with members of religious minorities and the LGBTQ community and their families.

An annual State Department report on human rights in Iran, released last year under the Trump administration, called the situation in Iran “severe” and worsening, with political protest movements and religious minorities targeted by authorities. Previous U.S. administrations have reported that Iranian authorities have targeted LGBTQ people for prosecution and subjected them to humiliating treatment.
“The law couldn’t be more clear that information in asylum applications is protected,” said Michael Kirkpatrick, a Public Citizen attorney involved with the complaint. He called the case “potentially a matter of life and death” for Iranian asylum seekers who end up deported back to Iran.
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This could effect gay people, Christians, Women's right advocates. They could be being tortured and murdured right now or they already have been.
 
I listened to Netanyahu complained and wined abut the US selling advanced fighters to Turkey.

Turkey is anti Israel and ambiguous about Iran.

Netanyahu made what he thought was a bargain with the devil, aka Trump.

Trump has no loyalty to anyone, it is all what Trump feels and her ears in the moment.

Trump could at any time dump Israel like a hot potato.
 
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