Young Black Men 21 Times More Likely Than Whites to Be Shot Dead by Police

[Frikki]

How much more frequently (in relation to their population size) do blacks either brandish a gun or attempt to shoot a police officer vs. whites? How much more often do they violently confront the police?

Blacks commit roughly 3x the rate of violent crimes as whites. I wonder how much more often they violently confront the police? That should be taken into account if you want to determine the actual difference race itself plays in police shootings.

I love the "libertarians"on this board.

 

[Axulus]

How much more frequently (in relation to their population size) do blacks either brandish a gun or attempt to shoot a police officer vs. whites? How much more often do they violently confront the police?

Blacks commit roughly 3x the rate of violent crimes as whites. I wonder how much more often they violently confront the police? That should be taken into account if you want to determine the actual difference race itself plays in police shootings.

I love the "libertarians"on this board.

So this should not be taken into account when doing these kind of comparisons? Why not? What purpose does it serve? Is it OK to distort to exaggerate racism so that it draws more resources and attention to the problem? Ends justify the means or something like that? "~3x-5x the shootings as a result of racism isn't enough! We must ignore all other factors so that we can say that 21x the shootings are due to racism so that people realize how horribly racist the society is"

By this kind of illogic, the police department is racist against whites vs. Asians, since there are more shootings by police of white teens vs. Asian teens per million.

Or maybe we should focus on unjustified police shootings and overuse of guns by police in general rather than turning it into a debate about skin color? If there is racism involved, then correcting this problem will benefit the race being targeted the most, wouldn't you agree, or are you one of those whose focus is only on the skin color of the victim?

 

[Axulus]

More food for thought: you have one neighborhood suffering 3x the crime rate compared to another neighborhood. You have 20 police officers in total. Each police officer added to the neighborhood reduces crime by 4% (not additive) . If you want to minimize overall crime between the two neighborhoods, how many police officers do you allocate to each neighborhood?

The answer is _not_ 15 in the high crime neighborhood and 5 in the low crime neighborhood (3x the number of officers in the high crime neighborhood), as one might intuitively expect. The answer is that all 20 should patrol the high crime neighborhood. Allocating all 20 to the high crime neighborhood will reduce the crime rate from 3x to 1.32x the low crime neighborhood (300 x .96^20). Taking one away from the high crime neighborhood to patrol the low crime neighborhood will increase crime in the high crime neighborhood more than the reduction in crime in the low crime neighborhood under this scenario.

Could this also have something to do with the number of police interactions in high crime areas vs. low crime areas? Or is maximizing the reduction in crime actually not a goal worth pursuing if the result tends to target one race more than another (even though you actually prevent more people within that race from becoming victims via the reduction in crime in those neighborhoods)?

 

[TV and credit cards]

The op was horseshit as it did not address any of the variables that may affect the statistic. This was quickly pointed out. HaRaAYaH then addressed a valid point, a real and troubling statistic and backed it up with good references. Why anyone would argue or dismiss it is part of the problem. Many people suffer injustice. Some die from it. Some spend a lifetime making excuses and point fingers, rightly or wrongly and say, "you're the reason I can't". Some others point their finger and say "you're the reason he can't". Enablers. I think most people who suffer injustice, make a quick decision and find a work-around. That's life. It may be an inappropriate comparison but it seems many people are bandaging a small cut when the patient's guts are hanging out. As HaRaAYaH pointed out, there are bigger and more troubling issues than cops frustrated with policing black neighborhoods, or racists. Whatever you want to call them.
To the op, I think body cameras will help. I do believe there is good data that they do. Then we can finally move on... to the next "why I can't".

 

[Mumbles]

The op was horseshit as it did not address any of the variables that may affect the statistic. This was quickly pointed out.

Unfortunately, I can't find an example of a statistic or variable that would explain this 21:1 disparity.

HaRaAYaH then addressed a valid point, a real and troubling statistic and backed it up with good references.

No, that was a red herring. Seriously, the whole "what about black on black crime?" deflection is simply not important to the discussion. The only legitimate reason for police to use violence on any citizen is as a last resort against an immediately dangerous person. There's really no actual crime, aside from "attacks an officer" that can explain it.

It is interesting how quickly that standard diversion showed up in this thread, though...

 

[AthenaAwakened]

I would ask those who think it is perfectly logical (and possibly acceptable) that Young Black Men are 21 Times More Likely Than Whites to Be Shot Dead by Police, do they see this logic inside or outside of American history? That is to say, Is there a documented and lengthy history of black people being harassed and killed by representatives of the legal authority? Throughout that history, if it exists, have those representatives of legal authority been race neutral actors and justified in their harassment and killing? If not, then what today takes our modern day police out of that historical precedent and make them right and righteous while their predecessors were not?

 

[doubtingt]

You assume that black folk more frequently guns? Why?

Because every relevant piece of data supports it. For example, blacks are 10 times more likely to be murdered, and the vast majority of these deaths are committed by other blacks in their community (much of it gang violence). Guns are several times more likely to be discovered in the car or on the person of black during searches. They are much more likely to commit every type of crime involving the illegal use of a handgun.

How much more often do they violently confront the police?

You assume black folk more violently confront police? Why?

Again, because every relevant piece of data supports it. Blacks are 3 times as likely to shoot and kill a cop. They are also much more likely to have a criminal record and/or outstanding warrant, which in turn increase the probability of resisting arrest.

Blacks commit roughly 3x the rate of violent crimes as whites.

Commit or are arrested and/or convicted?

They are more likely to be suspects based upon victim descriptions, including (if not especially) when the victim is black themselves. In addition, outside of suspects for specific criminal investigations, there is anonymous surveys of both victims and perps showing higher violent and/or gun related crime among blacks. For example, surveys show that black women and men are more likely to be raped or victims of domestic violence and that the perps are 90% same race. In addition, perps of such crimes are more likely to commit other violent crimes. There are also anonymous interview studies, showing that blacks are more likely to report having recently carried a concealed illegal gun, and this is true starting in the early teens through adulthood.

What facts do you have to say black folk are doing anything more so that white folks?

Again, just about every single relevant stat from the FBI or academic research looking at the predictors of crime shows that being black makes one much more likely to have a gun when the officer approaches, use that gun, or attempt some other type of assault on the officer, or attempt to flee. Not only is there a mountain of data linking race directly with these acts, but an even bigger mountain of data showing that many variables on which blacks and whites differ strongly predict these acts, and thus logically imply that blacks would be more likely to commit these acts (these other variables include less education and less income (both oneself and one's parents and prior generations, prior arrest record, having parents in prison, living in communities with more crime, living around more criminals, etc.). Oh, and then there is membership in a gang which predicts all these actions and is highly correlated to race.

 

[doubtingt]

I would ask those who think it is perfectly logical (and possibly acceptable) that Young Black Men are 21 Times More Likely Than Whites to Be Shot Dead by Police, do they see this logic inside or outside of American history? That is to say, Is there a documented and lengthy history of black people being harassed and killed by representatives of the legal authority? Throughout that history, if it exists, have those representatives of legal authority been race neutral actors and justified in their harassment and killing? If not, then what today takes our modern day police out of that historical precedent and make them right and righteous while their predecessors were not?

The law and the breaking of the law (including carrying and using guns) are what make the greater rates of killing by police today different than victimization by authorities in the past. The differential rates of hand gun possession and use in the cities, and of membership in armed gangs that exists for the purpose of criminality and violence are unprecedented compared to 100-300 years ago. Thus, that history is not the precedent for what is happening to today. More complexly, that history is an indirect causal contributor of the greater criminality, violence, and gun possession among black youths today to which shootings by the police are largely a by-product. When a cop approaches a member of a known violent gang with a criminal record while investigated to deadly shooting of a kid in the neighborhood the night before, he is rightly and rationally going to approach them under the assumption that he is plausibly armed and dangerous. He is not and should not say to himself, "Well, this young man is quite likely to be armed and a threat to me, but under no circumstance will I pull out my gun and shoot him because he is just the by-product of a long generational history of violent oppression to his ancestors and community."

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

The problem with topics like this, and threads like this, and the reason they never go anywhere, is because people are so quick to take "sides" and paint the other "side" as a group, and attribute all sorts of straw men arguments and motivations to them. Try suggesting race is involved and you'll get some reactionaries making irrational posts. Try objectively looking at a claim of racism and try to isolate the race factor from other factors, and you'll get brandished as a racist, told you completely deny racism exists, etc.

Racism is a real thing, and so is playing the race card. Racists do give special treatment for and against based on race. And "anti-racism" pushers do see it everywhere, exagerate it, and use it as a weapon to shame their way into special treatment. Both happen.

Why do we bother with these threads anymore?

 

[Axulus]

No, that was a red herring. Seriously, the whole "what about black on black crime?" deflection is simply not important to the discussion. The only legitimate reason for police to use violence on any citizen is as a last resort against an immediately dangerous person. There's really no actual crime, aside from "attacks an officer" that can explain it.

Yes, thank you. Does anyone have the statistic or citations to studies that show a black/white divide for unjustified shootings or police shootings that where not according to best practices in the situation as deemed by experts in the use of guns in law enforcement? I'm sure we'll see a black white difference, just not as high as 21x that the race baiters would have us believe.

The focus should always be on reducing or eliminating the unjustified use of guns in law enforcement. A side benefit is that blacks will benefit the most if there is indeed a component of racism involved if the focus is to reduce police shootings of all skin colors.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I love the "libertarians"on this board.

So this should not be taken into account when doing these kind of comparisons? Why not? What purpose does it serve? Is it OK to distort to exaggerate racism so that it draws more resources and attention to the problem? Ends justify the means or something like that? "~3x-5x the shootings as a result of racism isn't enough! We must ignore all other factors so that we can say that 21x the shootings are due to racism so that people realize how horribly racist the society is"

3x and 5x... are well short of 21x. 5x for gun crime would help support a 5x uptick in police shootings of blacks. But we are talking 21x.

So this begs the question, are blacks committing more crimes that are susceptible to gunfire from police? Why are there more killings of blacks. This doesn't have to be flat out racism. Recent studies indicate that subconscious bias does exist.

So we need to answer, why are 21x more young blacks shot to death by police than their white counterparts. Saying that blacks commit 3x crimes or 5x gun crimes than whites isn't the answer because simple arithmetic indicates as such.

Or maybe we should focus on unjustified police shootings and overuse of guns by police in general rather than turning it into a debate about skin color?

There appears to be a clear discrepancy based on race. You'd need blinders on not to see it.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

I think sensational articles like that in the OP do their cause more harm than good. Take the fact that black men are more often shot by police than white men, exagerate it, and push the narrative of a police war on black men, and shouldn't that make black men more likely to be distrustful of police they encounter, more likely to flee, and more likely to be violent towards the police (fearing the police will shoot them)? And wouldn't that in turn increase racist attitudes amongst police officers?

I think it should be known that there is a race issue within a particular police station or a particular officer, if there is one, but that should come along with some sort of plan or idea to change it.

There appears to be a clear discrepancy based on race. You'd need blinders on not to see it.

There does. And we should be discussing why it is there and what can be done about it. Just chanting "racism, racism, racism" accomplishes not a whole lot, especially when racism probably isn't the only factor at work.

 

[doubtingt]

So this should not be taken into account when doing these kind of comparisons? Why not? What purpose does it serve? Is it OK to distort to exaggerate racism so that it draws more resources and attention to the problem? Ends justify the means or something like that? "~3x-5x the shootings as a result of racism isn't enough! We must ignore all other factors so that we can say that 21x the shootings are due to racism so that people realize how horribly racist the society is"

3x and 5x... are well short of 21x. 5x for gun crime would help support a 5x uptick in police shootings of blacks. But we are talking 21x.

You cannot just isolate each contributing factor because they do not operate in isolation. Think of all the variables (other than race) that would lead a cop to be more likely to shoot a person. Race is correlated with most of those variables and blacks come out on the worse end of them. It isn't just having a gun, its being in the act of committing a crime, reaching into your pockets to try and ditch the drugs you are dealing, having a violent criminal record, having reason to flee or resist arrest, being with people with guns or a violent record, being in the vicinity of a reported crime, having tattoos or other signifiers intended to define oneself as a member of a violent and often armed gang, etc...
In isolation, most of these don't warrant being shot, but in combination (and they often occur in combination), the multiplicatively increase the probability that a cop
will shoot. Even when the shooting is not warranted, these factors make blacks more likely to be shot even if the cop is not reacting to race but is over-reacting to these other factors that make cops more on edge and "at the ready" because the probability of a threat is objectively higher.
For example, if a black youth is 3 times more likely to have gun and 4 times more likely to have a criminal record, then they are 12 (3 X 4) times more likely to have the combination both having a gun and a criminal record. Depending upon the overlap of these factors, the multiplicative difference in probability can be lessened, but there is still some degree of multiplicative effect that across the many factors could get close to 21 times. Is there some amount of racism above and beyond all those factors? Almost certainly. Cops are the ones directly witnesses and living the objectively higher probability that a black person they approach is an armed criminal. They would have to be non-human robots not to have these daily experiences create differences in expectations that serve to cloud there judgment when no real threat exists. However, it is more than plausible that the bias of the cop (whether rooted in objective experience or racist beliefs) is a relatively small portion of that 21 times difference compared to the factors that black and whites objectively differ on and would be expected to impact the probability of a cop shooting.

 

[untermensche]

If the police put extra effort and spent extra resources to more closely police black neighborhoods, then all crime statistics would be skewed by those efforts.

If there was some psychological factor that made police think blacks represented a bigger threat then policing and therefore all crime statistics would be skewed by those factors.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think sensational articles like that in the OP do their cause more harm than good. Take the fact that black men are more often shot by police than white men, exagerate it, and push the narrative of a police war on black men, and shouldn't that make black men more likely to be distrustful of police they encounter, more likely to flee, and more likely to be violent towards the police (fearing the police will shoot them)? And wouldn't that in turn increase racist attitudes amongst police officers?

Exaggerates it? The stat itself seems quite exaggerated on its own merit.

There appears to be a clear discrepancy based on race. You'd need blinders on not to see it.

There does. And we should be discussing why it is there and what can be done about it. Just chanting "racism, racism, racism" accomplishes not a whole lot, especially when racism probably isn't the only factor at work.

Yes, and there doesn't seem to be much being done about it. Might be why some are chanting "racism, racism, racism" so it can get some attention.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

3x and 5x... are well short of 21x. 5x for gun crime would help support a 5x uptick in police shootings of blacks. But we are talking 21x.

You cannot just isolate each contributing factor because they do not operate in isolation.

Crimes that warrant the use of deadly force better involve firearms. So the 5x stat most certainly is an isolatable statistic.

For example, if a black youth is 3 times more likely to have gun and 4 times more likely to have a criminal record, then they are 12 (3 X 4) times more likely to have the combination both having a gun and a criminal record.

Ignoring the fact... wait... lets not ignore it, let's cut that arithmetic failure in its place. First the most blatant:
1) 3x4 = 12. Yes, it does. How that is even remotely applicable to the subject, however, is lost on me. It would be 3 + 4, assuming some bad assumptions. That'd be 7x, not 12x.
2) Youth with guns and youth with criminal record are overlapping considerations. Therefore, it is likely most with guns are almost also the same people with the criminal record. So now bump back down to about 4x again.

Depending upon the overlap of these factors, the multiplicative difference in probability can be lessened, but there is still some degree of multiplicative effect that across the many factors could get close to 21 times.

No, because the only ones offered that are racially based is 3x and 4x. And you can't multiply those values, so you stay well below 21x, several times below.

Is there some amount of racism above and beyond all those factors? Almost certainly. Cops are the ones directly witnesses and living the objectively higher probability that a black person they approach is an armed criminal. They would have to be non-human robots not to have these daily experiences create differences in expectations that serve to cloud there judgment when no real threat exists. However, it is more than plausible that the bias of the cop (whether rooted in objective experience or racist beliefs) is a relatively small portion of that 21 times difference compared to the factors that black and whites objectively differ on and would be expected to impact the probability of a cop shooting.

You haven't presented such a case.

 

[doubtingt]

You cannot just isolate each contributing factor because they do not operate in isolation.

Crimes that warrant the use of deadly force better involve firearms. So the 5x stat most certainly is an isolatable statistic.

For example, if a black youth is 3 times more likely to have gun and 4 times more likely to have a criminal record, then they are 12 (3 X 4) times more likely to have the combination both having a gun and a criminal record.

Ignoring the fact... wait... lets not ignore it, let's cut that arithmetic failure in its place. First the most blatant:
1) 3x4 = 12. Yes, it does. How that is even remotely applicable to the subject, however, is lost on me. It would be 3 + 4, assuming some bad assumptions. That'd be 7x, not 12x.

Combined probabilities of two things occuring are multiplicative of the odds of each thing, not additive. Thus, differential probabilities across factors are also multiplicative.

2) Youth with guns and youth with criminal record are overlapping considerations. Therefore, it is likely most with guns are almost also the same people with the criminal record. So now bump back down to about 4x again.

I already noted that the factors are not independent, thus it is less than 12, but they are also not perfectly correlated either, so it does not "bump back down to four". Your claim is only true if every person with a gun at this moment already has a criminal record and every person with a record has a gun at this moment. Since that is nowhere near true, the multiplicative difference in probabilities is notably higher than 4 but less than 12.

Depending upon the overlap of these factors, the multiplicative difference in probability can be lessened, but there is still some degree of multiplicative effect that across the many factors could get close to 21 times.

No, because the only ones offered that are racially based is 3x and 4x.

I have offered many more factors across my posts beyond gun possession and a criminal record. Again, while they overlap they are also partly independent and thus multiply.

Is there some amount of racism above and beyond all those factors? Almost certainly. Cops are the ones directly witnesses and living the objectively higher probability that a black person they approach is an armed criminal. They would have to be non-human robots not to have these daily experiences create differences in expectations that serve to cloud there judgment when no real threat exists. However, it is more than plausible that the bias of the cop (whether rooted in objective experience or racist beliefs) is a relatively small portion of that 21 times difference compared to the factors that black and whites objectively differ on and would be expected to impact the probability of a cop shooting.

You haven't presented such a case.

You haven't presented anything whatsoever that support racism as a cause at all.
Your God of the gaps argument is nothing more than "I don't think known factors can explain it, and whatever they cannot explain is racism." The burden is entirely upon you to show that the known factors, clearly shown to causally impact shooting probabilities, cannot account for the discrepancy in question. I am throwing you a bone and acknowledging that some of it is likely racism, but the existing data and accurate understanding of combined probability differentials tells us that the known differences in behaviors definitely account for a sizable portion of the discrepancy and nothing you or anyone else has presented suggest that the 21 times is beyond what these factors can account for. In addition, my explanation has far more explanatory power and parsimony, able to explain why blacks are shot more not only by white cops, but by non-cops, by blacks, and by black cops. Your account can only cherry pick what data it accounts for and ignores contradicting data, such as the fact that black cops have a much higher bias toward shooting black suspects over whites, than even white cops do.

White officers killed 91 percent of the whites who died at the hands of police. And they were responsible for 68 percent of the people of color killed. Those people of color represented 46 percent of all those killed by white officers.

Black officers account for a little more than 10 percent of all fatal police shootings. Of those they kill, though, 78 percent were black.

I have highlighted the two directly comparable numbers showing that white cops shoot a larger raw number of white people than black people, but black cops shoot way more black people than white people. IOW, the bias in being more likely to shoot a black suspect than a white one is much larger by black cops than white cops.
This is the opposite of what is predicted by the racist cop theory, but exactly what is predicted by the theory that is due to the probability of encountering a black or white suspect engaged in activities that contribute to their shooting. Black cops are often assigned to black neighborhoods for "community outreach" reasons thus they encounter more blacks in general.

 

[doubtingt]

Oh, I forgot to respond to this particular claim.

You cannot just isolate each contributing factor because they do not operate in isolation.

Crimes that warrant the use of deadly force better involve firearms. So the 5x stat most certainly is an isolatable statistic.

No it is certainly not isolatable. Cops do not shoot every single time the person has a firearm, so unless you think that they should, it is not isolatable. Besides that, it is utter bullshit that they better involve firearms. A knife can be more than sufficient, depending upon the situation, nearby victims, etc.. Hell, even an unarmed person clearly fleeing from committing a brutal act of assault or rape should be shot. Most important, we are not talking about whether the shooting is fully justified, but whether it is race or other factors prompt the shooting (justified or not).

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think the difference between homicide being in the #1 slot vs the #3 slot is quite relevant.

I think it's relevant, too., but how much of that is due to the fact that black men are 21 times more likely to be shot by the police? If the cops weren't shooting blacks so frequently, would the homicide rates among 15-35 year old black males more closely resemble that of their white peers?

The number shot by police isn't going to end up anywhere near the top of that chart.

Lets try some numbers (all are from 2010, the last year we have complete data for):

15-19: 50.4%.
20-24: 49.2%
25-34: 35.1%

Now, to actually get numbers: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr63/nvsr63_03.pdf

50.4% * 1,813 = 914
49.2% * 3,311 = 1629
35.1% * 6,103 = 2142

Total = 4685

Now, for what the cops do: http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/uc...o-law-enforcement/expanded/expandhomicidemain

Justifiable killings by cops: 387.

In other words, even if everyone shot by the cops was black it only adds up to 8% of the deaths.


It would help if you wouldn't just start out assuming it's due to discrimination!

 

[Loren Pechtel]

More food for thought: you have one neighborhood suffering 3x the crime rate compared to another neighborhood. You have 20 police officers in total. Each police officer added to the neighborhood reduces crime by 4% (not additive) . If you want to minimize overall crime between the two neighborhoods, how many police officers do you allocate to each neighborhood?

The answer is _not_ 15 in the high crime neighborhood and 5 in the low crime neighborhood (3x the number of officers in the high crime neighborhood), as one might intuitively expect. The answer is that all 20 should patrol the high crime neighborhood. Allocating all 20 to the high crime neighborhood will reduce the crime rate from 3x to 1.32x the low crime neighborhood (300 x .96^20). Taking one away from the high crime neighborhood to patrol the low crime neighborhood will increase crime in the high crime neighborhood more than the reduction in crime in the low crime neighborhood under this scenario.

I disagree. The problem is if you allocate them 20:0 you'll find crime switching to the area with zero cops. The basic logic is sound, though, just don't give them a totally free pass anywhere.

- - - Updated - - -

The op was horseshit as it did not address any of the variables that may affect the statistic. This was quickly pointed out. HaRaAYaH then addressed a valid point, a real and troubling statistic and backed it up with good references. Why anyone would argue or dismiss it is part of the problem. Many people suffer injustice. Some die from it. Some spend a lifetime making excuses and point fingers, rightly or wrongly and say, "you're the reason I can't". Some others point their finger and say "you're the reason he can't". Enablers. I think most people who suffer injustice, make a quick decision and find a work-around. That's life. It may be an inappropriate comparison but it seems many people are bandaging a small cut when the patient's guts are hanging out. As HaRaAYaH pointed out, there are bigger and more troubling issues than cops frustrated with policing black neighborhoods, or racists. Whatever you want to call them.

I've been saying this for years. I've been vilified about it for years.