Zero credibility left

[Artemus]

I think that we've reached the point were Trump has no significant credibility remaining with either Congress or the American people. The final straw? Making the political speech to the Boy Scouts and then lying about getting a phone call from the leadership saying it was the best speech ever. People get really pissed off when kids are directly involved and it has forced people to admit to themselves what a liar he really is. Recent approval polls are in the low-mid 30s, which is about as low as a president can go. (The bottom 30% will support anyone who puts an "R" by their name.) Republican members of Congress are speaking out more and more and some are finally commenting on his questionable mental stability (if only caught by hot mikes). Echoed claims of Mueller being on a witch hunt and outrage about the leaks that revealed who Trump really is are almost non-existent from anyone outside the White House now.

So what happens now? Will Congress just keep trying to marginalize him? Will they keep passing legislation he despises like the Russian sanctions in the hope he gives up and resigns? Are the polls getting low enough that they decide there is less political fallout from getting rid of him for obstruction of justice than to keep him around? Are they hoping that Mueller provides a smoking gun so that they can act with minimal political fallout? Are they hoping for damning leaks of what Mueller has learned so they can act earlier?

Personally I still think that Congress (i.e. a sufficient majority) is hoping for a smoking gun. But based on the number of recent hires it looks like Mueller's investigation won't be done before the end of year at the earliest, which is getting dangerously close to the midterms and potentially devastating political news. The voting public has short memories so if they act now things may have settled down enough to minimize the damage.

Honestly, I'm enjoying watching this at some level. Watching Trump prove to right-wingers that they were fools who were fooled by the right-wing fake news sites may ultimately be the best thing that could have happened in the long term. I'll just keep eating the popcorn while it all unfolds.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It comes down to legislation. Trump has said he may or may not enforce the Russian sanctions. That'd be a start of potentially looking into impeachment. But more importantly, if Trump interferes with tax reform (if it happens) or a health care bill (if it happens) or raising the debt ceiling and passing a budget (goodness I hope at least that happens), then Congress will be done with Trump.

 

[Artemus]

And while I was typing the OP a small leak on Mueller's obstruction-of-justice case came out.

 

[Artemus]

And per the Wall Street Journal, grand jury has been assembled by Mueller. Details of the WSJ article that is behind a pay-wall are on Huffingtonpost.

 

[ZiprHead]

Shit's gettin' real.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I think that we've reached the point were Trump has no significant credibility remaining with either Congress or the American people. The final straw? Making the political speech to the Boy Scouts and then lying about getting a phone call from the leadership saying it was the best speech ever. People get really pissed off when kids are directly involved and it has forced people to admit to themselves what a liar he really is. Recent approval polls are in the low-mid 30s, which is about as low as a president can go. (The bottom 30% will support anyone who puts an "R" by their name.) Republican members of Congress are speaking out more and more and some are finally commenting on his questionable mental stability (if only caught by hot mikes). Echoed claims of Mueller being on a witch hunt and outrage about the leaks that revealed who Trump really is are almost non-existent from anyone outside the White House now.

So what happens now? Will Congress just keep trying to marginalize him? Will they keep passing legislation he despises like the Russian sanctions in the hope he gives up and resigns? Are the polls getting low enough that they decide there is less political fallout from getting rid of him for obstruction of justice than to keep him around? Are they hoping that Mueller provides a smoking gun so that they can act with minimal political fallout? Are they hoping for damning leaks of what Mueller has learned so they can act earlier?

Personally I still think that Congress (i.e. a sufficient majority) is hoping for a smoking gun. But based on the number of recent hires it looks like Mueller's investigation won't be done before the end of year at the earliest, which is getting dangerously close to the midterms and potentially devastating political news. The voting public has short memories so if they act now things may have settled down enough to minimize the damage.

Honestly, I'm enjoying watching this at some level. Watching Trump prove to right-wingers that they were fools who were fooled by the right-wing fake news sites may ultimately be the best thing that could have happened in the long term. I'll just keep eating the popcorn while it all unfolds.

Well they have to know about it first. Where are going to get this information, when they tune in to Rachel Maddow?

But I agree. The Boy Scout thing is damaging. It's unambiguous and offensive to American wholesomeness.

 

[zorq]

You can't say Trump has "zero" credibility when 30% of the pooulation he represents still approves of 90% of the shit he is doing. The "bottom 30%" Rs are real people who think Trump is "Presidential." And those 30% don't care that he turned a Boy Scout jamboree into a political stump speech because they approve of his message and think everyone should hear it.

Besides, the last time I checked, the BSA is an organization that still discriminates against atheists and homosexuals (and women, but I think they deserve an allowance there). I'm sure Trump thought he was speaking to his base. And I bet most of them ARE.

Anyway, the point is that as long as at least 50 % of Republicans and 10% of independents/others remain enthralled by Trump's idiocy, he can captivate the attention of Republican party and manipulate Congress. We haven't broken through that threshold yet. Trump still has significant influence over the entirety of the US government and still remains a potent and unstable threat.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The weird part is that a full quarter of your country views Trump as being trustworthy.

What exactly does someone have to do to be viewed as not trustworthy?

 

[fromderinside]

... be poor, be black, be hispanic, be a female, be from the city, be an academic, be a politician, ......

 

[Artemus]

You can't say Trump has "zero" credibility when 30% of the pooulation he represents still approves of 90% of the shit he is doing. The "bottom 30%" Rs are real people who think Trump is "Presidential." And those 30% don't care that he turned a Boy Scout jamboree into a political stump speech because they approve of his message and think everyone should hear it.

Besides, the last time I checked, the BSA is an organization that still discriminates against atheists and homosexuals (and women, but I think they deserve an allowance there). I'm sure Trump thought he was speaking to his base. And I bet most of them ARE.

Anyway, the point is that as long as at least 50 % of Republicans and 10% of independents/others remain enthralled by Trump's idiocy, he can captivate the attention of Republican party and manipulate Congress. We haven't broken through that threshold yet. Trump still has significant influence over the entirety of the US government and still remains a potent and unstable threat.

If the definition of some credibility is that some people will believe it or claim to support it then 9/11 conspiracy theorists and Holocaust deniers have some credibility. Congress is showing that it won't be manipulated by passing the Russian sanctions, which outraged h im. They may pass some legislation that Trump likes but not because he likes it, but because they like it. He hasn't accomplished anything yet and isn't going to start now while subpoenas are being released. He is dangerous because he is commander-in-chief, but in terms of influencing long-term national policy? No significant impact at all. In my opinion, of course. (Getting a conservative supreme court justice appointed wasn't even his accomplishment. That belonged to Congress for refusing to hold confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland and then changing the rules to get someone they liked approved.)

And of course he thought he was speaking to his base. He always thinks he is speaking to his base because everyone loves him and only the fake MSM says differently.

Finally, I don't like the Boy Scouts either, for the reasons you list. But that doesn't change the fact that a lot of people who do like them were badly offended by his behavior. Jeez, the leader even went so far as to publicly apologize for having the POTUS speak at their rally. When the leader of a group like that has to apologize for having the president appear, you know that president has an extremely serious problem.

 

[Keith&Co.]

You can't say Trump has "zero" credibility when 30% of the pooulation he represents still approves of 90% of the shit he is doing.

I think those are discrete measurements.

The bottom 30% can accept and even admit that he's a liar and a cheat, but still approve of him because at least he's not Crooked Hillary.

 

[funinspace]

Last May Nate Silver's group showed that Don the Con's "strongly approve" rating had slipped from 28-30% down to around 21% in May. From the data, it looks like that declining group shifted over into the softer "somewhat approve".
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

A more recent analysis of polling data in the below article shows a general softening of his base support across most all categories. It may not be zero, but it is definitely trending the wrong way for Don the Con.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-with-his-presidency/?utm_term=.d4de450ee728

 

[Opoponax]

Last May Nate Silver's group showed that Don the Con's "strongly approve" rating had slipped from 28-30% down to around 21% in May. From the data, it looks like that declining group shifted over into the softer "somewhat approve".
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

A more recent analysis of polling data in the below article shows a general softening of his base support across most all categories. It may not be zero, but it is definitely trending the wrong way for Don the Con.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-with-his-presidency/?utm_term=.d4de450ee728

And when his approval rating dips into the 20% range, the GOP will likely be willing to impeach him. Right now its at approximately 33% overall. Should things continue apace, and there's no reason to think they won't, he should fall to less than 30% by October.

Let's not forget that by the end of his second term, George W. Bush's approval rating was below 25%, so it's entirely possible for Trump to hit that mark.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The weird part is that a full quarter of your country views Trump as being trustworthy.

What exactly does someone have to do to be viewed as not trustworthy?

Or have conversations with other heads of state like Turnbull and Nieto where you come across as a total asshole, so much so that the other party realizes it's time to put on the kid gloves because they realize you're a jerk, idealess, supremely juvenile and intellectually lacking.

 

[Artemus]

Last May Nate Silver's group showed that Don the Con's "strongly approve" rating had slipped from 28-30% down to around 21% in May. From the data, it looks like that declining group shifted over into the softer "somewhat approve".
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

A more recent analysis of polling data in the below article shows a general softening of his base support across most all categories. It may not be zero, but it is definitely trending the wrong way for Don the Con.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-with-his-presidency/?utm_term=.d4de450ee728

And when his approval rating dips into the 20% range, the GOP will likely be willing to impeach him. Right now its at approximately 33% overall. Should things continue apace, and there's no reason to think they won't, he should fall to less than 30% by October.

Let's not forget that by the end of his second term, George W. Bush's approval rating was below 25%, so it's entirely possible for Trump to hit that mark.

Shrub's turning point was the Katrina response. When the Dept. of Homeland Security couldn't even get supplies into New Orleans despite having at least three days of advanced warning it became clear to everyone who mattered that the image of a president whose masterful leadership was the only thing keeping us safe from terrorists was a farce. I think that Trump has had his Katrina.

 

[funinspace]

And when his approval rating dips into the 20% range, the GOP will likely be willing to impeach him. Right now its at approximately 33% overall. Should things continue apace, and there's no reason to think they won't, he should fall to less than 30% by October.

Let's not forget that by the end of his second term, George W. Bush's approval rating was below 25%, so it's entirely possible for Trump to hit that mark.

Shrub's turning point was the Katrina response. When the Dept. of Homeland Security couldn't even get supplies into New Orleans despite having at least three days of advanced warning it became clear to everyone who mattered that the image of a president whose masterful leadership was the only thing keeping us safe from terrorists was a farce. I think that Trump has had his Katrina.

Actually, I don't think FFvC's numbers will drop too much more w/o something much more serious coming out regarding the special prosecutors investigation. The remaining supporters most probably don't care that he is a clown, or that he insults almost everyone. But the Con's Teflon coating won't stick with a sinking economy.

I think that Bush's numbers were crashing in the end largely from the affect of "It's the economy, stupid". Sure people were tired of 8 years of a lackluster (wars/occupations and the Katrina fiasco) president, but nothing kills poll numbers more than falling stock markets and rising unemployment. The DJIA and SP500 were both down by about a 1/3 by the time of the election, along with unemployment obviously spiking upward with no end in sight (though it was only up 2 percentage points by the November election. But by that fall, most everyone felt we were rapidly sliding into a nasty recession.

 

[Malintent]

You can't say Trump has "zero" credibility when 30% of the pooulation he represents still approves of 90% of the shit he is doing.

I think those are discrete measurements.

The bottom 30% can accept and even admit that he's a liar and a cheat, but still approve of him because at least he's not Crooked Hillary.

25% of the nation will support anyone with a (R) at the end of their name, no matter what. If you're a NY Yankee fan, how the team manager acts is not going to change that... the "base" is not representative of opinion, but of blind trust / loyalty.... sports is their universal topic they can discuss with each other... it's the only thing that uneducated people have to talk about (except television and the weather, I guess). Trump's base is rooting for a team... not that they understand why or what for.. .but because that is what the rest of the sheep around them are doing... they were all raised in a "Yankee fan family"... so that's the beginning and end of that...

So, deduct the 25% of people that don't have an opinion, just a sports team they are rooting for, and you will find Trump's support base that is based on reality around 5% or so.

Edited to add....

"reality" being "I know he's an idiot trying to rob the country, but I stand to make a lot of money off of his criminal acts"

 

[Tristan Scott]

I think we sometimes make the mistake of assuming that everyone in this country is well informed. That hasn't been the case for a long time. It comes down to ignorance and in some cases downright stupidity. Ignorance because there are a good number of people who only get their information from Fox News. Some friends of ours are like that, only Fox. My wife mentioned one time that Trump sure seems to be doing a lot of golfing and our friend said "Oh, he doesn't have time for golf, he's way too busy." For the most part Fox doesn't report a lot of this stuff, and when they do they usually under report it or report it in a misleading way.

I think it was over a hundred years ago that an MP coined the saying that while Conservatives aren't generally stupid people, stupid people are generally Conservative. This has been true ever since, and conservative leadership understands this and exploits it-Trump certainly does.

 

[whichphilosophy]

I think that we've reached the point were Trump has no significant credibility remaining with either Congress or the American people. The final straw? Making the political speech to the Boy Scouts and then lying about getting a phone call from the leadership saying it was the best speech ever. People get really pissed off when kids are directly involved and it has forced people to admit to themselves what a liar he really is. Recent approval polls are in the low-mid 30s, which is about as low as a president can go. (The bottom 30% will support anyone who puts an "R" by their name.) Republican members of Congress are speaking out more and more and some are finally commenting on his questionable mental stability (if only caught by hot mikes). Echoed claims of Mueller being on a witch hunt and outrage about the leaks that revealed who Trump really is are almost non-existent from anyone outside the White House now.

So what happens now? Will Congress just keep trying to marginalize him? Will they keep passing legislation he despises like the Russian sanctions in the hope he gives up and resigns? Are the polls getting low enough that they decide there is less political fallout from getting rid of him for obstruction of justice than to keep him around? Are they hoping that Mueller provides a smoking gun so that they can act with minimal political fallout? Are they hoping for damning leaks of what Mueller has learned so they can act earlier?

Personally I still think that Congress (i.e. a sufficient majority) is hoping for a smoking gun. But based on the number of recent hires it looks like Mueller's investigation won't be done before the end of year at the earliest, which is getting dangerously close to the midterms and potentially devastating political news. The voting public has short memories so if they act now things may have settled down enough to minimize the damage.

Honestly, I'm enjoying watching this at some level. Watching Trump prove to right-wingers that they were fools who were fooled by the right-wing fake news sites may ultimately be the best thing that could have happened in the long term. I'll just keep eating the popcorn while it all unfolds.

There are always rights and wrongs which can take years to find what is the most likely truth. I present time it all comes down to how the media writes it and we accept and perceive it. Of course there are frequently factual incidents mixed with speculation.

 

[Elixir]

I think we sometimes make the mistake of assuming that everyone in this country is well informed. That hasn't been the case for a long time. It comes down to ignorance and in some cases downright stupidity. Ignorance because there are a good number of people who only get their information from Fox News. Some friends of ours are like that, only Fox. My wife mentioned one time that Trump sure seems to be doing a lot of golfing and our friend said "Oh, he doesn't have time for golf, he's way too busy." For the most part Fox doesn't report a lot of this stuff, and when they do they usually under report it or report it in a misleading way.

I think it was over a hundred years ago that an MP coined the saying that while Conservatives aren't generally stupid people, stupid people are generally Conservative. This has been true ever since, and conservative leadership understands this and exploits it-Trump certainly does.

I too have friends (mostly around a third my age) who are FOX-only. I saw a FB post from one of them recently: "I watched CNN for the first time ever. CAN YOU BELIEVE the stuff they say???"
Apparently the answer from most of her peers is "NO". I had to resist the urge to reply "SAD!".