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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - tactics and logistics

I think you are overthinking it. I don't think Putin wants to expand Russian territory. He wants to control as much of the former USSR as possible. That's not the same thing as making Russia itself bigger. He wants to control politics in these states. Place puppet leaders in positions of power, and just suck them dry of wealth.
Don't all states want that?
Having said that, that's not what Russia wants in Ukraine anymore.
Eastern Ukraine is gone, it's back in Russia now. The only question is what will be included into Eastern Ukraine. A lot of people being previously on the fence, even if they did not like Russia that much now afraid of Ukrainian government (their "army") more than they dislike Russia in general.
In more less pro-russian regions, they know they are dead if Ukraine gets control back.

While I agree that Russia keeping Eastern Ukraine is the most likely outcome, I think it would be a disaster long term. The only thing that will stop future attempts of Putin is to reestablish the previous border including giving Crimea back to Ukraine.

China is watching. If we give a weak response now, we will get a bygger mess later
For millionth time. Neither Crimea nor Eastern Ukraine has any business being in Ukraine. No business at all. It's all Russia. There is nothing Ukrainian about them.
In fact the whole Ukraine with the exception of former Poland is Russia too. The damn US ambasssador to USSR pretty much agrees with that.
We should all go to pre WW1 or pre WW2 state.
And one more thing, shut up!
You know nothing about anything!
Finnish speaking regioins in Russia my ass!
Shut up!
 
Jesus Barbos. You arguments make Qanon sound rational.
No, I am parroting former US ambassadors, well known academics and remaining decent journalists. So it's you who is a trumper-Qanon here.
Seriously, does it bother you that former US ambassador to USSR basically repeats what Putin said in that speech prior to "invasion"?

Of course it does not bother you, why do I even ask.



Speaking of tactics, GB sends Ukrainian junta missiles which can only be used on Tornado planes :) Great move!
Actually, I don't think "junta" is a proper term, it's more like terrorist cells.
IMG_6811.JPG
 
I think you are overthinking it. I don't think Putin wants to expand Russian territory. He wants to control as much of the former USSR as possible. That's not the same thing as making Russia itself bigger. He wants to control politics in these states. Place puppet leaders in positions of power, and just suck them dry of wealth.
Don't all states want that?
Having said that, that's not what Russia wants in Ukraine anymore.
Eastern Ukraine is gone, it's back in Russia now. The only question is what will be included into Eastern Ukraine. A lot of people being previously on the fence, even if they did not like Russia that much now afraid of Ukrainian government (their "army") more than they dislike Russia in general.
In more less pro-russian regions, they know they are dead if Ukraine gets control back.

While I agree that Russia keeping Eastern Ukraine is the most likely outcome, I think it would be a disaster long term. The only thing that will stop future attempts of Putin is to reestablish the previous border including giving Crimea back to Ukraine.

China is watching. If we give a weak response now, we will get a bygger mess later
For millionth time. Neither Crimea nor Eastern Ukraine has any business being in Ukraine. No business at all. It's all Russia. There is nothing Ukrainian about them.
In fact the whole Ukraine with the exception of former Poland is Russia too. The damn US ambasssador to USSR pretty much agrees with that.
We should all go to pre WW1 or pre WW2 state.
And one more thing, shut up!
You know nothing about anything!
Finnish speaking regioins in Russia my ass!
Shut up!

What is the assertion that they belong to Russia based on? The Ukrainian language is significantly different to Russian, and has a lot of Germanic words, not found in Russian. And it's not purely cultural or ethnic. Russia is a dictatorship and a kleptocracy. Why would anybody prefer to be ruled by Russia if they have any other option? A Ukraine tied to the west is more likely to become wealthy and prosperous than if continued to be tied to Russia. Seen from a purely pragmatic economic point of view, the more distance from Russia the better.

As far as I am concerned borders can be drawn anywhere across Europe. The borders between cultural groups are gradual and ever shifting. For the sake of world peace it's better to draw a border once, and then make them sacred. A stable world without war is just better for everybody even if it doesn't lead to ethnic purity (which is a stupid ideal anyway). And to achieve that any aggressor should be curb stomped ASAP. That's why I think the international community should get involved and hand Crimea back to Ukraine.
 
What is the assertion that they belong to Russia based on?
Because that was a part of Russia which was attached to newly created Ukrainian republic by communists.
The Ukrainian language is significantly different to Russian, and has a lot of Germanic words,
What kind of shit you keep smoking?
And why is it even relevant one way or another. And no, Ukrainian does not have any significant (compared to Russian) amount of Germanic words.


Russia is a dictatorship and a kleptocracy. Why would anybody prefer to be ruled by Russia if they have any other option?
I don't know, maybe because Ukrainian regime is way worse?

A Ukraine tied to the west is more likely to become wealthy and prosperous than if continued to be tied to Russia.
Have you been asleep last 8 years or something?

Seen from a purely pragmatic economic point of view, the more distance from Russia the better.
Nooope. Data shows it's more like "more distance from Ukraine the better"
 
Well, Russia has finally switched tactics so that they are NOT overstretching their supply-lines, and my opinion is that if the Russian government had done this, to begin with, they would have already dominated the eastern half of the country, by now, and they also would have probably gotten control over their entire Black Sea coast. Kyiv most likely would not have stood until the end of the year.

However, it is too little, too late. The economic effects of global sanctions have had time to start taking their toll, and in the long-run, they are going to run out of their more expensive weapons. They are not really going to be able to continue minting new tanks fast enough to keep up with the rate at which Ukraine has been destroying them, whereas Ukraine still has enough international sympathy that they have new equipment rolling in by the day. Ukraine still has access to the Black Sea through Odessa.

Furthermore, the frustration of Russian troops over their early failures led to early humanitarian disasters that have entrenched an intense partisan resistance, especially in the southeastern parts of Ukraine. The partisan resistance probably would not have been as fierce without the early failures of the Russian invasion, but the consequences of leaving your troops underfed, undersupplied, and terrified of an intensely hostile population is that they become angry, they become hungry, and they become desperate, which leads to the slaughter of civilians. You cannot really undo that, and the family, neighbors, and countrymen of those people are ghosts that come back to haunt you. Russia has thereby created a problem that they otherwise might not have had to such an extreme degree. Where a partisan resistance would have had little effect in a situation like they had in Crimea, which they quickly dominated with little loss of life, thereby making such a resistance unpopular and all but impossible to build support for, they have ruined the possibility of any such scenario by an excess of ambition.

Furthermore, they seriously screwed up with Mariupol. Their "kill so many of them that the rest of them are paralyzed with fear" strategy has only hardened the international community against Russia and thereby led to a tightening of sanctions. The fact that their jumping jacks in the region are bragging as if Mariupol were a glowing success that they were turning to a quick profit, Mariupol was really a failure. By flatting the city, they have not just denied that city to Ukraine, but they have denied it to themselves. Those resources that they destroyed are resources that they could have used. The civilians that they have rendered starving and angry are civilians that they could have otherwise courted at least for complacency if not for active support. I suppose the idea behind their strategy in Mariupol was to break the spirit of the region, but just to the west of the city is a center of partisan warfare, already discussed, that will ultimately make the lives of Russian occupiers as much of a living Hell as Vietnam was for the Americans. You just don't murder thousands of people and expect their survivors to do anything else in the world besides make your life so miserable as to be not even worth living.

Ultimately, Russia made the same mistake, by stretching their supply-lines too far, that Napoleon made during his invasion of Russia. While Napoleon was indeed able to win a few relatively petty victories, that disastrous campaign really was a turning point in the war that ultimately led to the defeat of Napoleon. Ultimately, it was the same tale. Napoleon marched into Russia with pride, confidence, and swagger, and he had the happy expectation that the "liberated" (read: conquered) peasants would throw flowers at his feet as he triumphantly marched into a suddenly pro-France Moscow and planted the Tricolor to the tune of a happy fanfare. The heart of his mistake was ultimately that you cannot realistically expect your soldiers to behave well if you leave them starving, and that is final. The first instance of rape, plunder, or mass murder is the beginning of your defeat.

While Napoleon might have had a few relatively minor victories later, his fate was really sealed from the moment that he assumed that hubris would not have consequences. Even if he had not made any further mistakes, it would have happened eventually because the world had turned against him where the world had previously been divided or, at times, sympathetic. His empire was doomed.

Only a fool would bet on Putin, at this point.
 
What is the assertion that they belong to Russia based on?
Because that was a part of Russia which was attached to newly created Ukrainian republic by communists.

So what? After World War I the Versailles treaty stipulated self governance for nations. This is still the principle with which the world is organised. You can argue whether it's a good principle, but that's how the world works now. While Ukraine shares a lot of culture with Russia, they have their own language and are in many ways as distinct culture. Russia was an empire. The age of empires is long gone.

It doesn't really matter if Luhansk and Donbas is more culturally Russian. Borders exist because of accidents in history anyway.

I'm not arguing what region should belong where. I'm arguing for not fucking around with existing borders, for any reason. It's never worth it.


The Ukrainian language is significantly different to Russian, and has a lot of Germanic words,
What kind of shit you keep smoking?
And why is it even relevant one way or another. And no, Ukrainian does not have any significant (compared to Russian) amount of Germanic words.

Lol. Spoken like a true Russian imperialist.





Russia is a dictatorship and a kleptocracy. Why would anybody prefer to be ruled by Russia if they have any other option?
I don't know, maybe because Ukrainian regime is way worse?

I'm not arguing against that. But I would also argue that the reason Ukraine is such a mess politically is Russia's fault. If they ally with the west, they're in a better position to rid themselves of the post Soviet endemic corruption.

A Ukraine tied to the west is more likely to become wealthy and prosperous than if continued to be tied to Russia.
Have you been asleep last 8 years or something?

There's been an ongoing Russian funded civil war in East Ukraine since 2014. No shit things are worse.
 
Past the editing window again, and it shows what it gets you to type on a phone.

Above, where "Only a fool would be on Putin, at this point." was what got posted, my thumb had actually aimed for an additional "t" that did not register. It should say, "Only a fool would bet on Putin, at this point."

This editing time-limit is inconvenient for those of us typing on error-prone devices.

[Note: Edit applied to the original]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Our little Russian friend seems unaware that his fearless leader is squandering all hope for his Country for the next decade or more.

Russia may well not even exist in a year or two, if desperation drives Pootler to try a “nuclear option”. He seems to forget that he can’t win such an exchange.

If OTOH Pootler elects to continue to prosecute his ego trip in Eastern Ukraine with conventional means, the rest of the world will support Ukraine to a point where Russia’s capabilities are irreversibly degraded beyond all repair.

The air superiority they enjoy right now in the Donbas will become less and less pronounced until they have lost that too. And the Russian economy will be sufficiently destroyed that there will be no rebuilding it.

If Pootler wasn’t gorging on the same propaganda he’s feeding barbos, he’d know by now that he is treading a one-way downward path.
 
I think you are overthinking it. I don't think Putin wants to expand Russian territory. He wants to control as much of the former USSR as possible. That's not the same thing as making Russia itself bigger. He wants to control politics in these states. Place puppet leaders in positions of power, and just suck them dry of wealth.
Don't all states want that?
Having said that, that's not what Russia wants in Ukraine anymore.
Eastern Ukraine is gone, it's back in Russia now. The only question is what will be included into Eastern Ukraine. A lot of people being previously on the fence, even if they did not like Russia that much now afraid of Ukrainian government (their "army") more than they dislike Russia in general.
In more less pro-russian regions, they know they are dead if Ukraine gets control back.

While I agree that Russia keeping Eastern Ukraine is the most likely outcome, I think it would be a disaster long term. The only thing that will stop future attempts of Putin is to reestablish the previous border including giving Crimea back to Ukraine.

China is watching. If we give a weak response now, we will get a bygger mess later
For millionth time. Neither Crimea nor Eastern Ukraine has any business being in Ukraine. No business at all. It's all Russia. There is nothing Ukrainian about them.
In fact the whole Ukraine with the exception of former Poland is Russia too. The damn US ambasssador to USSR pretty much agrees with that.
We should all go to pre WW1 or pre WW2 state.
And one more thing, shut up!
You know nothing about anything!
Finnish speaking regioins in Russia my ass!
Shut up!
lol... like "russia" is a "thing" anymore. Ukraine will drag the surviving former russians out of the darkage and some of them might have a future in the modern world... but, unfortunately, by the end of all this.. .most of the people formerly known as "russians" will be dead. victims of their own self-destructing war.
Rusted nukes from 1980 that are in the same shape as the rest of the rusted, half-dead "russian" army don't launch... they blow up in their own silo.
 
The writing is on the wall. Plenty of rich Russians don't live in Russia and after this debacle, it makes finacial sense that even fewer will.
 
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Our little Russian friend seems unaware that his fearless leader is squandering all hope for his Country for the next decade or more.

Russia may well not even exist in a year or two, if desperation drives Pootler to try a “nuclear option”. He seems to forget that he can’t win such an exchange.

If OTOH Pootler elects to continue to prosecute his ego trip in Eastern Ukraine with conventional means, the rest of the world will support Ukraine to a point where Russia’s capabilities are irreversibly degraded beyond all repair.

The air superiority they enjoy right now in the Donbas will become less and less pronounced until they have lost that too. And the Russian economy will be sufficiently destroyed that there will be no rebuilding it.

If Pootler wasn’t gorging on the same propaganda he’s feeding barbos, he’d know by now that he is treading a one-way downward path.
by the time poopy-pants orders a nuke strike, the people manning the silo will already have stripped out the more valuable pieces of critical equipment in exchange for a few pieces of bread and clean water to drink

Why do you think he launched a $500M super-sonic cruise missile at a $100k target? and then never launched another one at anything... cause it was literally the only functional "modern" weapon they have... to give the appearance they are just swimming in modern weaponry... a bluf.

This time next year what was once called russia will be carved up and belong to the EU, the starving and poor people of that land rescued, and the rich oligarchs hung by their necks until their tiny little feet stop kicking.
 
Our little Russian friend seems unaware that his fearless leader is squandering all hope for his Country for the next decade or more.

Russia may well not even exist in a year or two, if desperation drives Pootler to try a “nuclear option”. He seems to forget that he can’t win such an exchange.

If OTOH Pootler elects to continue to prosecute his ego trip in Eastern Ukraine with conventional means, the rest of the world will support Ukraine to a point where Russia’s capabilities are irreversibly degraded beyond all repair.

The air superiority they enjoy right now in the Donbas will become less and less pronounced until they have lost that too. And the Russian economy will be sufficiently destroyed that there will be no rebuilding it.

If Pootler wasn’t gorging on the same propaganda he’s feeding barbos, he’d know by now that he is treading a one-way downward path.
by the time poopy-pants orders a nuke strike, the people manning the silo will already have stripped out the more valuable pieces of critical equipment in exchange for a few pieces of bread and clean water to drink

Why do you think he launched a $500M super-sonic cruise missile at a $100k target? and then never launched another one at anything... cause it was literally the only functional "modern" weapon they have... to give the appearance they are just swimming in modern weaponry... a bluf.

This time next year what was once called russia will be carved up and belong to the EU, the starving and poor people of that land rescued, and the rich oligarchs hung by their necks until their tiny little feet stop kicking.

What actually lends credence to that scenario is the history of the Russian populace’s incredible devotion to egomaniacal despots and kleptocrats, and their willingness to trade them in for a newer model at the first blemish.
Pootler is aware of that, which is why there are no limits to the absurdity of his stories. He has to keep at least a plurality of Russians proud of him for … what Barbos is telling us on Pootey’s behalf no matter how detached from reality.
Selling a righteous defensive war to partially restore rightful ownership of another Country, to Russia. He should have stuck to consolidating Georgia. Now he has his fingers in more pies than he has fingers.
Just guessing, but it probably sucks to be Pootey right now.
 
Just guessing, but it probably sucks to be Pootey right now.

Putin thinks it sucks to be Putin as much as Trump thinks it sucks to be Trump. I'm only saying this because they seemed to get along so well, and it's not because the countries they were leading at the time had much in common.
 
Just guessing, but it probably sucks to be Pootey right now.

Putin thinks it sucks to be Putin as much as Trump thinks it sucks to be Trump. I'm only saying this because they seemed to get along so well, and it's not because the countries they were leading at the time had much in common.
People like Hitler and Putin and Trump do not change. They are simply, eventually rendered meaningless.
 
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I think you are overthinking it. I don't think Putin wants to expand Russian territory. He wants to control as much of the former USSR as possible. That's not the same thing as making Russia itself bigger. He wants to control politics in these states. Place puppet leaders in positions of power, and just suck them dry of wealth.
Don't all states want that?
Having said that, that's not what Russia wants in Ukraine anymore.
Eastern Ukraine is gone, it's back in Russia now. The only question is what will be included into Eastern Ukraine. A lot of people being previously on the fence, even if they did not like Russia that much now afraid of Ukrainian government (their "army") more than they dislike Russia in general.
In more less pro-russian regions, they know they are dead if Ukraine gets control back.
Eastern Ukraine is currently in Russian hands but Russia is getting it's ass kicked and is running out of ammunition. You guys just flung some sub-launched missiles at Kyiv, that wouldn't have been done if they had other missiles available. (And it was a war crime besides, you fired at a purely economic target.)
 
Why do you think he launched a $500M super-sonic cruise missile at a $100k target? and then never launched another one at anything... cause it was literally the only functional "modern" weapon they have... to give the appearance they are just swimming in modern weaponry... a bluf.
I'm guessing they used a prototype, it's not a production weapon yet.
 
Just guessing, but it probably sucks to be Pootey right now.

Putin thinks it sucks to be Putin as much as Trump thinks it sucks to be Trump. I'm only saying this because they seemed to get along so well, and it's not because the countries they were leading at the time had much in common.
People like Hitler and Putin and Trump do not change. They are simply, eventually rendered meaningless.

Tomorrow is April 30. On this date in 1945, Adolf Hitler committed suicide in his bunker.
 
Just guessing, but it probably sucks to be Pootey right now.

Putin thinks it sucks to be Putin as much as Trump thinks it sucks to be Trump. I'm only saying this because they seemed to get along so well, and it's not because the countries they were leading at the time had much in common.
People like Hitler and Putin and Trump do not change. They are simply, eventually rendered meaningless.
On the contrary, such men ultimately, perversely, do good in a strange sort of way.

We would not know how evil antisemitism and other forms of extremist hate were unless Adolf Hitler had made such a mull of engaging in it. It is quite possible for similar degrees of evil to go entirely unpunished, and the despicable creatures that engage in it can even go on to be celebrated as great leaders. The slaughter of the Circassians by the forces of Tsar Alexander II went without very much notice for centuries, and he got away with it because he had also enacted several popular policies and sold away Alaska to the United States. The United States put entire races of people to the slaughter in its westward expansion. The actions of the British in Australia and New Zealand were some of the most evil actions ever taken by a government. The Spanish had laid waste to once flourishing civilizations in South and Central America. Things like that had really happened throughout history. What it took to bring to our attention that genocide is, indeed, evil was for someone to engage in it while also making earning for himself much of the world's united scorn. Otherwise, the practice of conveniently brushing away any ethnic group that might be in the way might have persisted in perpetuity, and we might even be proudly saluting the leaders that did so and calling them "heroes of our people." Someone that succeeds at making serious evils unpopular is, therefore, a sort of accidental hero.

Putin is doing something similar, here. Everybody understands this: Putin had no intention of only taking Ukraine. He has been meddling in French politics, too. He has had every intention of destablizing and, if possible, utterly disintegrating the European Union and NATO. If Ukraine had fallen as easily as he had hoped, there is no telling when or if he ever would have stopped, in his territorial greed. He made it clear that he had developed a sense of contempt toward the western world and toward western values, and he wanted to see how far he could go in running roughshod over us in service to that contempt. He has effectively made a dread enemy of the entire western world.

Let me point out how good could eventually come of this. The United States had gotten away with similar acts of military conquest in the Middle East and Central Asia. Our invasions of Iraq and of Afghanistan were really not very much better, in the long-run, than Putin's invasion of Ukraine. However, all that we really did was spend away a substantial amount of international goodwill by doing so. We did not really succeed at making it extraordinary to send troops into another country's sovereign territory uninvited. We merely did not have as much carte blanche, to engage in what amounts to realpolitik, as we did before those campaigns. Much as we damaged our popularity, we did not quite succeed at earning the truly united contempt of the world, only their annoyance and exasperation. Quite frankly, we have gotten away with some things that we really should not have done.

Putin's actions in Ukraine might be unpleasant actions, but he has also managed to insult, threaten, and generally piss off just the right people while engaging in those actions. He has succeeded at earning the united contempt of the world while engaging in actions that should have always been deemed as unacceptable, but now that he has given those actions something more like the vicious character they deserve, it will be harder for other governments to get away with such actions, in the future.

However, this effect can only occur if those sorts of individuals actually do earn the world's united contempt. We must learn to regard them as the very pictures of worthlessness of character. We must make sure that such individuals are never allowed into any position of power in any government for any reason whatsoever. It is absolutely imperative that we should hate them because it is only by us hating them that their actions actually can result in some positive effect.

But then we must make sure that we learn to recognize the warning signs when we see them. Vladimir Putin's habit of representing himself as a "calculating chess-player" was really a coded message. He was always and always will be a creature of utterly ruthless ambition, blind to either morality or any sense of justice whatsoever. From now on, we must learn to regard such individuals as deserving of the righteous contempt of their entire society. If someone represents himself as a snake, then he is probably a snake.

Dragons, by the way, are warm-blooded, and ironically, most of us cry easily :D.
 
Just guessing, but it probably sucks to be Pootey right now.

Putin thinks it sucks to be Putin as much as Trump thinks it sucks to be Trump. I'm only saying this because they seemed to get along so well, and it's not because the countries they were leading at the time had much in common.
People like Hitler and Putin and Trump do not change. They are simply, eventually rendered meaningless.

Tomorrow is April 30. On this date in 1945, Adolf Hitler committed suicide in his bunker.
So THAT is where your user_name came from! 🤭
 
A wse all know Hitler escaped to Argentina in a submarine.
 
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