Do you think any aliens exist in the universe?

[Loren Pechtel]

Spectroscopy tells us the composition of a star and the likely elements present in e solar system. Point being any distant ET is likely to face the same issues we do, most importantly propulsion.

Look at what it takes to get a few humans into LEO, and sustain the ISS. A large scale lunar or Martian colony is a fantasy.


Economies of scale apply to commodities like computers with a high volume.

The economics of a leet of galaxy roaming star ships is astronomical. The engibeering, design, and teting alone woud be costly.

Unless there is cheap high energy density power sources any ET will be as limited as we are.

And that assues an T with our combination of brains, dexterity, speech, writing, and barin power.

Fusion Orion and light sail can get 1%c. That's enough for slowboats. Laser-pumped lightsail can do several %c. Combine that with solving aging and the stars are in reach. (Yes, there is some doubt about whether Orion could be used for planetary launch as you have a problem with overheating the pusher plate, but when you're not facing gravity losses you can just be more gentle and allow enough cooling time.)

 

[steve_bank]

Spectroscopy tells us the composition of a star and the likely elements present in e solar system. Point being any distant ET is likely to face the same issues we do, most importantly propulsion.

Look at what it takes to get a few humans into LEO, and sustain the ISS. A large scale lunar or Martian colony is a fantasy.


Economies of scale apply to commodities like computers with a high volume.

The economics of a leet of galaxy roaming star ships is astronomical. The engibeering, design, and teting alone woud be costly.

Unless there is cheap high energy density power sources any ET will be as limited as we are.

And that assues an T with our combination of brains, dexterity, speech, writing, and barin power.

Fusion Orion and light sail can get 1%c. That's enough for slowboats. Laser-pumped lightsail can do several %c. Combine that with solving aging and the stars are in reach. (Yes, there is some doubt about whether Orion could be used for planetary launch as you have a problem with overheating the pusher plate, but when you're not facing gravity losses you can just be more gentle and allow enough cooling time.)

Works fine for a very long lived ET that can tolerate zero g.

You still have an energy and food issue. Can a closed environmental system given enough energy exist indefinably without resupply? Can Oand water be recycled indefinitely without loss?

 

[excreationist]

Musk want to send five million people to live on Mars. How? How are you going to sustain five million people on a planet that is utterly inimical to human life? At what expense, even if it could be done (and we haven’t a clue how to do it)? What is going to be the return on this massive investment? What will these humans on Mars produce, to recover the cost of the initial investment and turn a profit? Nothing, is what. The whole thing is a pipe dream.

Elon Musk says he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050 by launching 3 Starship rockets every day and creating 'a lot of jobs' on the red planet

Musk said he would send 1,000 Starships full of people into Earth orbit, then rocket them all to Mars during an opportune 30-day window.

www.businessinsider.com

"Elon Musk says he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050"

What is Elon Musk's Starship space vehicle?

Elon Musk's company SpaceX is building a ship that could transform space travel.

www.bbc.com

"Starship, as it's known, will be a fully reusable transport system capable of carrying up to 100 people to the Red Planet"

SpaceX Starship Will Carry 1000 People Anywhere On Earth For $500-2000

For the same price as an international economy airline ticket, the SpaceX Starship will fly in 20 minutes what takes a normal airliner 20 hours!

www.intelligentliving.co

"SpaceX Starship Will Carry 1000 People Anywhere On Earth"

Since Starship can carry 1000 people for a short period it should be able to carry 100 people for several months....

BTW Musk is planning to have the Mars colony underground:

Why The Boring Company Is The Key To Elon's Mars Colony! — The Tesla Space

What if I told you that the real reason that Elon Musk started the Boring Company was to develop a next generation tunnel boring machine to deploy on the planet Mars and construct his own underground Martian city?

www.theteslaspace.com

 

[bilby]

There is no Planet B. What we should be paying attention to is our own planet, the only planet we have and most likely will ever have. We are destroying it. We should forget about this fantasy about colonizing other worlds and focus on saving our own world for ourselves and the generations to come.

For ourselves and how many generations to come?

The earth is doomed. The sun is getting hotter, same as any other main sequence star. Sunlight dissociates water vapor, the oxygen falls to the ground, the hydrogen reaches escape velocity. In a billion years or so the oceans will have boiled away and the earth will be uninhabitable whether we pay attention to it and save it from our own destructive tendencies or not. So if it's important to you whether the generations to come and the rest of our charismatic megafauna co-tenants have a life-sustaining environment, they're going to need that Planet B and the starships to take them there.

Well the Earth is doomed, but the chances of our species being around to see it are minuscule.

We don’t need a Planet B, because Planet A will almost certainly outlive us by thousands of millions of years.

 

[excreationist]

Well the Earth is doomed, but the chances of our species being around to see it are minuscule.

We don’t need a Planet B, because Planet A will almost certainly outlive us by thousands of millions of years.

If the end of the Earth isn't the reason then why else would our species come to a complete end? And are you saying that either we won't colonize Mars or our species on Mars would also be wiped out? Or would our species end because we've evolved into something else?

 

[bilby]

Well the Earth is doomed, but the chances of our species being around to see it are minuscule.

We don’t need a Planet B, because Planet A will almost certainly outlive us by thousands of millions of years.

If the end of the Earth isn't the reason then why else would our species come to a complete end? And are you saying that either we won't colonize Mars or our species on Mars would also be wiped out? Or would our species end because we've evolved into something else?

The futility of attempting to make an independent colony on Mars I already discussed above.

The vast majority of all species that ever evolved are now extinct. The average duration of a species is a tiny fraction of the duration of life on Earth, and there’s no reason to imagine that humans will be exceptional.

Maybe we will die due to some catastrophe - an asteroid strike, or the evolution of a unicellular species that drops the oxygen level below what we can survive, or that turns oceanic chloride into chlorine and gasses us to death, or a supervolcano eruption, or a global thermonuclear war, or the collapse of the ecosphere due to our burning of fossil fuels, or any of a million other scenarios that could kill us at a stroke.

Or maybe we will just evolve into something else.

Regardless of how we meet our end, it’s hugely implausible that we will live anywhere near long enough to see the Sun depart from the main sequence and incinerate the planet.

We think a few million years is a long time. And it is, from a species perspective. But the Earth-Sun catastrophe Bomb#20 raised is a far longer term prospect - in the order of a thousand times longer.

 

[steve_bank]

We need to put signs around the planet in space.

Allalienslaiems must pass through customs and quarantine for 30 days.

 

[Hermit]

There is no Planet B. What we should be paying attention to is our own planet, the only planet we have and most likely will ever have. We are destroying it. We should forget about this fantasy about colonizing other worlds and focus on saving our own world for ourselves and the generations to come.

For ourselves and how many generations to come?

The earth is doomed. The sun is getting hotter, same as any other main sequence star. Sunlight dissociates water vapor, the oxygen falls to the ground, the hydrogen reaches escape velocity. In a billion years or so the oceans will have boiled away and the earth will be uninhabitable whether we pay attention to it and save it from our own destructive tendencies or not. So if it's important to you whether the generations to come and the rest of our charismatic megafauna co-tenants have a life-sustaining environment, they're going to need that Planet B and the starships to take them there.

Well the Earth is doomed, but the chances of our species being around to see it are minuscule.

We don’t need a Planet B, because Planet A will almost certainly outlive us by thousands of millions of years.

Yes, the implication that homo sapiens will be around in a recognisable form a billion years from now is chuckleworthy. May as well start speculating what we might do in 4.5 billion years when the Andromeda galaxy and our own tear each other apart.

I go with this:

...Science Fiction isn’t stories about our future. It’s stories about our present, and our past, set in the future.

The recognition of this was triggered about four decades is what steadily reduced my interest in science fiction. It is near zero now.

 

[pood]

Musk want to send five million people to live on Mars. How? How are you going to sustain five million people on a planet that is utterly inimical to human life? At what expense, even if it could be done (and we haven’t a clue how to do it)? What is going to be the return on this massive investment? What will these humans on Mars produce, to recover the cost of the initial investment and turn a profit? Nothing, is what. The whole thing is a pipe dream.

Elon Musk says he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050 by launching 3 Starship rockets every day and creating 'a lot of jobs' on the red planet

Musk said he would send 1,000 Starships full of people into Earth orbit, then rocket them all to Mars during an opportune 30-day window.

www.businessinsider.com

"Elon Musk says he plans to send 1 million people to Mars by 2050"

What is Elon Musk's Starship space vehicle?

Elon Musk's company SpaceX is building a ship that could transform space travel.

www.bbc.com

"Starship, as it's known, will be a fully reusable transport system capable of carrying up to 100 people to the Red Planet"

SpaceX Starship Will Carry 1000 People Anywhere On Earth For $500-2000

For the same price as an international economy airline ticket, the SpaceX Starship will fly in 20 minutes what takes a normal airliner 20 hours!

www.intelligentliving.co

"SpaceX Starship Will Carry 1000 People Anywhere On Earth"

Since Starship can carry 1000 people for a short period it should be able to carry 100 people for several months....

BTW Musk is planning to have the Mars colony underground:

Why The Boring Company Is The Key To Elon's Mars Colony! — The Tesla Space

What if I told you that the real reason that Elon Musk started the Boring Company was to develop a next generation tunnel boring machine to deploy on the planet Mars and construct his own underground Martian city?

www.theteslaspace.com

Oh, I see, it’s only one million. Oh boy, that makes a difference. It is all just so lolworthy.

Oh, and he’s going to have them underground. Well, see, that makes all the difference in the world!

 

[pood]

The real Musk

 

[pood]

A million people to Mars by 2050, no less. Just 28 years from now … but wait! Who is going to bore the underground chambers for this intrepid one million? Or will the one million be expected to do the boring themselves? How? With what? Meanwhile, while all that boring is going on, which would take years or decades, what are the intrepid one million expected to do? Jerk off while Phobos transits the sun?

 

[bilby]

A million people to Mars by 2050, no less. Just 28 years from now … but wait! Who is going to bore the underground chambers for this intrepid one million? Or will the one million be expected to do the boring themselves? How? With what? Meanwhile, while all that boring is going on, which would take years or decades, what are the intrepid one million expected to do? Jerk off while Phobos transits the sun?

What are they planning to breathe, drink, and eat while all this boring stuff is happening?

 

[excreationist]

Maybe we will die due to some catastrophe - an asteroid strike, or the evolution of a unicellular species that drops the oxygen level below what we can survive, or that turns oceanic chloride into chlorine and gasses us to death, or a supervolcano eruption, or a global thermonuclear war, or the collapse of the ecosphere due to our burning of fossil fuels, or any of a million other scenarios that could kill us at a stroke.

But in basically all of those scenarios on Earth wouldn't people on Mars survive (if there were people on Mars)?

If we can’t establish a five million strong colony in Antarctica (and we really can’t), then we sure as shit ain’t doing it on Mars.

The futility of attempting to make an independent colony on Mars I already discussed above.

I can't really explain why not having 5 million people in the Antarctica doesn't disprove that there could be a large colony on Mars.... maybe there could be at least a few thousand people on Mars in the next few centuries?

 

[excreationist]

Yes, the implication that homo sapiens will be around in a recognisable form a billion years from now is chuckleworthy. May as well start speculating what we might do in 4.5 billion years when the Andromeda galaxy and our own tear each other apart.

Futurists talk about posthumans (and/or transhumans?).... Elon Musk talks about using Neuralink to merge with AI.

 

[bilby]

Maybe we will die due to some catastrophe - an asteroid strike, or the evolution of a unicellular species that drops the oxygen level below what we can survive, or that turns oceanic chloride into chlorine and gasses us to death, or a supervolcano eruption, or a global thermonuclear war, or the collapse of the ecosphere due to our burning of fossil fuels, or any of a million other scenarios that could kill us at a stroke.

But in basically all of those scenarios on Earth wouldn't people on Mars survive (if there were people on Mars)?

I see no plausible way to make a Mars colony independent of support from Earth for the indefinite term. Once Earth is unable to resupply the Mars colony, or support it with information, research, and troubleshooting assistance, it is doomed.

If we can’t establish a five million strong colony in Antarctica (and we really can’t), then we sure as shit ain’t doing it on Mars.

The futility of attempting to make an independent colony on Mars I already discussed above.

I can't really explain why not having 5 million people in the Antarctica doesn't disprove that there could be a large colony on Mars.... maybe there could be at least a few thousand people on Mars in the next few centuries?

By comparison to Mars, Antarctica is a paradise for humans. The temperatures are balmy, the air is breathable, there’s abundant fresh water (albeit mostly in the form of ice), there are fish off the coastline, and you can eat penguins, and even seaweed.

Antarctica is like Mars on ‘super easy’ mode. It’s a comparative paradise.

Yet humans struggle to survive there, and can only do so with massive support and regular resupply from elsewhere.

If you can’t walk, it’s a pretty reasonable assumption that you can’t win the Olympic Marathon. If you can’t colonise Antarctica, it’s equally reasonable to assume that you can’t colonise Mars.

 

[excreationist]

Maybe we will die due to some catastrophe - an asteroid strike, or the evolution of a unicellular species that drops the oxygen level below what we can survive, or that turns oceanic chloride into chlorine and gasses us to death, or a supervolcano eruption, or a global thermonuclear war, or the collapse of the ecosphere due to our burning of fossil fuels, or any of a million other scenarios that could kill us at a stroke.

But in basically all of those scenarios on Earth wouldn't people on Mars survive (if there were people on Mars)?

I see no plausible way to make a Mars colony independent of support from Earth for the indefinite term. Once Earth is unable to resupply the Mars colony, or support it with information, research, and troubleshooting assistance, it is doomed.

Are there any scenarios where people from Mars couldn't go back to Earth to gather resources? Or at least send robots?
As far as information goes they could make a copy of all of the needed parts of the internet including information about how to manufacture all technology....

By comparison to Mars, Antarctica is a paradise for humans. The temperatures are balmy, the air is breathable, there’s abundant fresh water (albeit mostly in the form of ice), there are fish off the coastline, and you can eat penguins, and even seaweed.

Antarctica is like Mars on ‘super easy’ mode. It’s a comparative paradise.

Yet humans struggle to survive there, and can only do so with massive support and regular resupply from elsewhere.

If you can’t walk, it’s a pretty reasonable assumption that you can’t win the Olympic Marathon. If you can’t colonise Antarctica, it’s equally reasonable to assume that you can’t colonise Mars.

There is no reason to create a colony in Antarctica that can survive independently from the rest of the Earth. The reason for Mars is to survive a catastrophe on Earth - that is what Elon Musk says as well. You have listed many possible catastrophes that could wipe out all people on Earth. Do you think it would be good to have a backup plan so that people could survive those catastrophes on Earth you listed?

 

[Kylie]

I think it's likely that alien life exists.

If we are talking about alien life as simple life, similar to what we would call bacteria, then I'd expect to find it in our solar system (apart from on Earth, obviously).

If we are talking about more advanced life, I think it's also fairly likely that we'd find it in our solar system. Simple fish-like creatures in the oceans of Europa, for example.

For intelligent life that would be similar to some stage of Human development, I think would be much rarer. It's likely to exist somewhere, I think, but almost certainly not in our solar system. But in other planetary systems, I think it's quite probable.

As for the idea of such intelligent life coming to Earth in spaceships, I think it's almost certainly NOT happening.

 

[Jokodo]

Why do people treat the guy with the overpriced electric vehicle as an authority on anything other than overcharging for cars, again?

 

[excreationist]

Why do people treat the guy with the overpriced electric vehicle as an authority on anything other than overcharging for cars, again?

Remember he also is partly behind Neuralink (for merging with AI) and OpenAI ("Our mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity") and SpaceX.... not just Tesla....

 

[skepticalbip]

...

Maybe we will die due to some catastrophe - an asteroid strike, or the evolution of a unicellular species that drops the oxygen level below what we can survive, or that turns oceanic chloride into chlorine and gasses us to death, or a supervolcano eruption, or a global thermonuclear war, or the collapse of the ecosphere due to our burning of fossil fuels, or any of a million other scenarios that could kill us at a stroke.

But in basically all of those scenarios on Earth wouldn't people on Mars survive (if there were people on Mars)?

I see no plausible way to make a Mars colony independent of support from Earth for the indefinite term. Once Earth is unable to resupply the Mars colony, or support it with information, research, and troubleshooting assistance, it is doomed.

Are there any scenarios where people from Mars couldn't go back to Earth to gather resources? Or at least send robots?
As far as information goes they could make a copy of all of the needed parts of the internet including information about how to manufacture all technology....

By comparison to Mars, Antarctica is a paradise for humans. The temperatures are balmy, the air is breathable, there’s abundant fresh water (albeit mostly in the form of ice), there are fish off the coastline, and you can eat penguins, and even seaweed.

Antarctica is like Mars on ‘super easy’ mode. It’s a comparative paradise.

Yet humans struggle to survive there, and can only do so with massive support and regular resupply from elsewhere.

If you can’t walk, it’s a pretty reasonable assumption that you can’t win the Olympic Marathon. If you can’t colonise Antarctica, it’s equally reasonable to assume that you can’t colonise Mars.

There is no reason to create a colony in Antarctica that can survive independently from the rest of the Earth. The reason for Mars is to survive a catastrophe on Earth - that is what Elon Musk says as well. You have listed many possible catastrophes that could wipe out all people on Earth. Do you think it would be good to have a backup plan so that people could survive those catastrophes on Earth you listed?

A colony on Mars would have to first be able to survive independently. Can such a colony survive? A good test before wasting billions to put them there to die would be to try to see if a colony could survive and prosper, isolated from support on Antarctica where living conditions are much, much more survivable.