How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

you say there are very few of them. Not according to latest data.

Let’s see what you call “the latest data” and explain how it differs from “the last pile of Putler propaganda swallowed by gullible Barbos”.

You seem to be reduced to incoherent foaming at the mouth.

 

[Jayjay]

Biden gets cold feet:

Biden says US won’t send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia

President Biden on Monday said the United States will not send rocket systems to Ukraine that could potentially reach into Russia, after reports that the administration was preparing to send long-range systems to the besieged European ally.

www.foxnews.com

Any weapon system can be used to "strike Russia", if they're close enough to the border. I think the US just has to trust that Ukraine is too dependent on foreign aid during and after the war that they would refrain from using certain weapons to strike beyond Russian borders.

Well, they've already hit Russian targets inside of Russia. As of right now, I understand Biden's position. And I agree. We don't want WW3. But if Russia starts invading westward again, we might need to rethink this.

There just needs to be plausible deniability. If Russia wants, it can use any excuse to kick off mobilization or use nuclear weapons. I don't think not giving Ukraine weapons to defend itself will make a difference.

Before the war, there were strict rules about all Javelin missiles being stored in western Ukraine for defensive purposes only. I think Ukraine held on to their end of that bargain, and didn't use Javelins until Russia had already invaded. Similar rules can be made for MLRS or Harpoons.

 

[steve_bank]

Your post makes zero sense. You don't like the Ukrainian Oligarchs. Fine. You don't like those oligarch meanies who now own rubble and ruin. Fine. Do you give a fucking shit about their families? How about all the innocent civilians? Their children? I donated money to a group that rescued hundreds of children dying of cancer that was finally evacuated. Their story was heart breaking. Do you give a shit about them? Do you give a shit about all the environmental damage that Russia is causing? Do you give a shit about the millions of people world wide who will suffer because Russia won't let Ukraine export their grain? How about the world wide inflation that is affecting the world? Have you been to the store lately?

Right there in your own post you gave the answer to your own question and you don't even know it. You said YOU donated money to a group. Find. I have absolutely no problem with that, and even commend it. But we're not talking about what YOU are doing, we are talking about what you and yours all want the government to do.

When it comes to that, your very emotional argument means nothing. "Don't you care about X? Don't you care about Y" Don't you care about deciding things on merits other than emotion?

It is because everything has been decided on emotion for the last 20 years that we are experiencing food shortages right now. Your "feelings" aren't going to feed the hungry, cold rational action will. And when you say "oh but I meant well", I won't give a damn about that.

Actually you won't say "oh but I meant well" because that would mean admitting that letting your feelings trump reality is wrong, and that feels bad so you won't do that.

You bet I get emotional about it.

Yes, you have emotion. Too bad that's all you have.

That's pretty deep Jason! I notice that you tend to post in this thread just after the Russians have a few victories. This must be a happy time for you.

Some people will accept and support anything as long as it is anti American.

Wikileaks Assange had a show on Russian TV. Funny how Wikileaks never goes after Russia or China.

It amkes sense Assange wd be posting on the web under an anonymous tag.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Biden gets cold feet:

Biden says US won’t send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia

President Biden on Monday said the United States will not send rocket systems to Ukraine that could potentially reach into Russia, after reports that the administration was preparing to send long-range systems to the besieged European ally.

www.foxnews.com

Any weapon system can be used to "strike Russia", if they're close enough to the border. I think the US just has to trust that Ukraine is too dependent on foreign aid during and after the war that they would refrain from using certain weapons to strike beyond Russian borders.

Well, they've already hit Russian targets inside of Russia. As of right now, I understand Biden's position. And I agree. We don't want WW3. But if Russia starts invading westward again, we might need to rethink this.

There just needs to be plausible deniability. If Russia wants, it can use any excuse to kick off mobilization or use nuclear weapons. I don't think not giving Ukraine weapons to defend itself will make a difference.

Before the war, there were strict rules about all Javelin missiles being stored in western Ukraine for defensive purposes only. I think Ukraine held on to their end of that bargain, and didn't use Javelins until Russia had already invaded. Similar rules can be made for MLRS or Harpoons.

I don't disagree Jay. We're just trying to figure out how to stop the war. Invaders return to their land. Rebuild. That's what we all want. That's what the world wants. Even China. How do we get there? Putler is a madman who is probably dying. The people in power in Russia have absolute belief in him and will do what he says. At the end of day, Russia won't cease to being a threat to Europe until we are completely off their oil/gas. We send a billion dollars to Russia every day for their oil. The oil embargo will help. But that will just raise the prices, and they'll make their blood money by selling to others at a higher price. If we really want to stop Russia, we'd double our spending for alternate energy sources and get the world off of Russian oil and gas (and save the world).

Anyway, I think that Biden will eventually send the rockets to Ukraine if Russia doesn't stop. If Russia starts marauding towards Kyiv again, I'd suspect that the rockets are heading over.

 

[steve_bank]

It is clear by now that NATO would have little trouble pushing Russia out of Ukraine. The threat of nuclear war and the irrationality of Putin is lurking in the background.

It is not dissimilar to the Vietnam War. We were bombing the north but pilots could not attack ships in Haiphong Harbor with decks piled with armaments. Cambodia was a haven , and we did go in covertly. Taking the fight directly to the north was politically impossible. Chnia and Russia in the background.

In Korea China drew a line that was crossed, and entered the war.

If WWII was fought politically with constant scrutiny by the press we might all be saluting pictures of Hitler today.

It is certainly odd. Throghout the Cold War Europe was trading with Russia when russia was out to topple Europe. .

 

[Gun Nut]

OpenRailwayMap - railroad lines for the entire world, mapped by railfans.

Europe has an abundance of rail lines, so Ukrainian grain can go anywhere in Europe, including to any European port. The main difficulty is changing gauge, and that must be done on the borders of the former Russian Empire - Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, the Transcaucasian and Central Asian ex-Soviet nations, and Russia itself. From there, the closest big coastal cities not on the Black Sea are Gdansk, Poland and Istanbul, Turkey.

The change of track gauge at countries' borders is intentional... specifically to prevent it's use during wartime. This difficulty is by design.

 

[Copernicus]

OpenRailwayMap - railroad lines for the entire world, mapped by railfans.

Europe has an abundance of rail lines, so Ukrainian grain can go anywhere in Europe, including to any European port. The main difficulty is changing gauge, and that must be done on the borders of the former Russian Empire - Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, the Transcaucasian and Central Asian ex-Soviet nations, and Russia itself. From there, the closest big coastal cities not on the Black Sea are Gdansk, Poland and Istanbul, Turkey.

The change of track gauge at countries' borders is intentional... specifically to prevent it's use during wartime. This difficulty is by design.

That's the popular story that is often used to explain why so-called "Russian gauge" is different from the rest of Europe. However, 5-foot (1,524 mm) gauge first appeared in the US and UK. It was adopted by Russia in 1843 with the help of American engineers. So there is another explanation possible for that story. There is no reason why the rivalry with Austria and Prussia also could not have played a role, but Russia was developing closer ties with the US because of its occupation of territories in the Pacific Northwest, among other things. The US ended up purchasing Alaska from them in 1867 (although the Tlingits and other local inhabitants didn't feel that Russia was theirs to sell).

 

[lpetrich]

Railroad track gauge is the separation between the rails, measured on the inside.  List of track gauges

Standard gauge is 4' 8 1/2" or 1,435 mm. The theory I like best is that it is a change of measurement convention to what is more convenient for railroad measurements, since railroad-vehicle wheel flanges are almost universally on the inside rather than on the outside. The original convention was measurement from the outside, where the separation is close to 5'.

This is what likely inspired Russian gauge, 5' on the inside, or 1,524 mm. In the Soviet Union, the rails were moved a tiny bit inward, to 1,520 mm or 4' 11 27/32".

 

[ZiprHead]

Oh NOEs!!!

 

[bilby]

Oh NOEs!!!

You may laugh, but my brother lives in the UK, and he said that the local shops were completely out of Roast Beef flavoured Monster Munch, and he had to choose between Onion flavour or cannibalism.

 

[Elixir]

Oh NOEs!!!

You may laugh, but my brother lives in the UK, and he said that the local shops were completely out of Roast Beef flavoured Monster Munch, and he had to choose between Onion flavour or cannibalism.

In the US some are so desperate they’re eating the very same toilet paper they traded away their car for a couple years ago.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine will get MLRS, but not the maximum range missiles, after promising it won't use them on Russia proper.

Blinken says Ukraine won't strike Russia, sees 'many months' of war

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that Ukraine had promised not to use new long-range missiles to strike inside of Russia as he warned of "many months" of conflict ahead.

www.france24.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

Supposedly Germany will be sending missiles and associated radar systems. Likely the IRIS-T SLM (surface launched medium range).

How many and when?

 

[Jayjay]

Battles in Kherson seem confusing. Both sides are reporting huge victories, and they can't both be right. Apparently communications from the region are cut off so there's no independent information.

My opinion/guess: Either Russia has really amped up its propaganda game, or Ukraine's counter-attack is not going very well. If Ukraine loses in both East and South, it'll have a huge negative impact on morale.

 

[Gun Nut]

Your post makes zero sense. You don't like the Ukrainian Oligarchs. Fine. You don't like those oligarch meanies who now own rubble and ruin. Fine. Do you give a fucking shit about their families? How about all the innocent civilians? Their children? I donated money to a group that rescued hundreds of children dying of cancer that was finally evacuated. Their story was heart breaking. Do you give a shit about them? Do you give a shit about all the environmental damage that Russia is causing? Do you give a shit about the millions of people world wide who will suffer because Russia won't let Ukraine export their grain? How about the world wide inflation that is affecting the world? Have you been to the store lately?

Right there in your own post you gave the answer to your own question and you don't even know it. You said YOU donated money to a group. Find. I have absolutely no problem with that, and even commend it. But we're not talking about what YOU are doing, we are talking about what you and yours all want the government to do.

When it comes to that, your very emotional argument means nothing. "Don't you care about X? Don't you care about Y" Don't you care about deciding things on merits other than emotion?

It is because everything has been decided on emotion for the last 20 years that we are experiencing food shortages right now. Your "feelings" aren't going to feed the hungry, cold rational action will. And when you say "oh but I meant well", I won't give a damn about that.

Actually you won't say "oh but I meant well" because that would mean admitting that letting your feelings trump reality is wrong, and that feels bad so you won't do that.

You bet I get emotional about it. I have family members (in-laws) in Europe that have a Ukranian family living with them. I've heard the stories. I pretty much agree with President Biden on almost his actions in aiding Ukraine today. A weakened Russia will likely not invade a NATO country. If Nato is attacked, it's WW3. And we're screwed. But bottom line, I believe that sovereign countries should not be invaded. Period. End of story. I would support Ukraine even if Russia weren't threatening NATO. I think that we should arm and resupply Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. Mostly with defensive weapons. But they need longer range weapons to take out Russian artillery in Ukraine. I would understand; but I would not support Ukraine attacking Russia land. I think that the west should do everything possible to encourage Russia to return home. This would include massive sanctions. Bankrupt the fuckers. I think that we also need to figure out a way to get the grain out of Ukraine. The grain needs to be shipped out via Odessa. If we don't figure out a way, millions could starve. At this time, the only way that i see to do this is to send the Russian ships around Odessa to the bottom of the ocean. The Ukrainians could accomplish this hopefully with better longer range anti-ship missiles and better intelligence.

If you know a better way to peace - I'm all ears!

Call Poopies bluff and nuke Moscow. I believe the rusted-solid ballistic missiles they built 40 years ago will not launch / no longer exist. His threats are based on ancient reputation alone, and I, for one, am willing to bet Earth on that. Every silo has been looted by conscripts for anything they can trade for a loaf of bread, and are presently useless.

 

[Copernicus]

Your post makes zero sense. You don't like the Ukrainian Oligarchs. Fine. You don't like those oligarch meanies who now own rubble and ruin. Fine. Do you give a fucking shit about their families? How about all the innocent civilians? Their children? I donated money to a group that rescued hundreds of children dying of cancer that was finally evacuated. Their story was heart breaking. Do you give a shit about them? Do you give a shit about all the environmental damage that Russia is causing? Do you give a shit about the millions of people world wide who will suffer because Russia won't let Ukraine export their grain? How about the world wide inflation that is affecting the world? Have you been to the store lately?

Right there in your own post you gave the answer to your own question and you don't even know it. You said YOU donated money to a group. Find. I have absolutely no problem with that, and even commend it. But we're not talking about what YOU are doing, we are talking about what you and yours all want the government to do.

When it comes to that, your very emotional argument means nothing. "Don't you care about X? Don't you care about Y" Don't you care about deciding things on merits other than emotion?

It is because everything has been decided on emotion for the last 20 years that we are experiencing food shortages right now. Your "feelings" aren't going to feed the hungry, cold rational action will. And when you say "oh but I meant well", I won't give a damn about that.

Actually you won't say "oh but I meant well" because that would mean admitting that letting your feelings trump reality is wrong, and that feels bad so you won't do that.

You bet I get emotional about it. I have family members (in-laws) in Europe that have a Ukranian family living with them. I've heard the stories. I pretty much agree with President Biden on almost his actions in aiding Ukraine today. A weakened Russia will likely not invade a NATO country. If Nato is attacked, it's WW3. And we're screwed. But bottom line, I believe that sovereign countries should not be invaded. Period. End of story. I would support Ukraine even if Russia weren't threatening NATO. I think that we should arm and resupply Ukraine to the greatest extent possible. Mostly with defensive weapons. But they need longer range weapons to take out Russian artillery in Ukraine. I would understand; but I would not support Ukraine attacking Russia land. I think that the west should do everything possible to encourage Russia to return home. This would include massive sanctions. Bankrupt the fuckers. I think that we also need to figure out a way to get the grain out of Ukraine. The grain needs to be shipped out via Odessa. If we don't figure out a way, millions could starve. At this time, the only way that i see to do this is to send the Russian ships around Odessa to the bottom of the ocean. The Ukrainians could accomplish this hopefully with better longer range anti-ship missiles and better intelligence.

If you know a better way to peace - I'm all ears!

Call Poopies bluff and nuke Moscow. I believe the rusted-solid ballistic missiles they built 40 years ago will not launch / no longer exist. His threats are based on ancient reputation alone, and I, for one, am willing to bet Earth on that. Every silo has been looted by conscripts for anything they can trade for a loaf of bread, and are presently useless.

I'm having real trouble deciding over whether we should just send military aid to Ukraine or risk all-out global nuclear war with a preemptive nuclear attack. Which option would make the most sense and make us feel better?

 

[ZiprHead]

Death penalty considered for captured UK and Morocco fighters - Russian-backed rebels

Two UK citizens and a Moroccan, who fought on the Ukrainian side in the country's eastern Donbas region, may face the death penalty, Russian-backed rebels are quoted as saying by Russia's Interfax news agency.

Viktor Gavrilov, an official at the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic's (DNR) prosecutor general's office, says a criminal investigation "has been completed" and - taking into account that a war is going on - the accused may be given capital punishment.

Gavrilov identified the two captured Brits as Shaun Pinner and Andrew Hill, while the Moroccan national was named as Sadun Brahim.

The DNR reportedly introduced the death penalty on the territory seized from Ukraine in 2014.

 

[ZiprHead]

'Secure sea route' for Ukraine grain welcome - Turkish president

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that he sees "value" in helping to create "a secure sea route for exporting Ukrainian agricultural products", Reuters has reported his office as saying.

Erdogan's office has also said it welcomes in principle the idea of making Istanbul a headquarters for "observation" between Moscow, Kyiv and the UN.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia is ready to facilitate the unhindered export of grain from Ukrainian ports in co-ordination with Turkey, Reuters reported.

Ukraine has been unable to export millions of tonnes of grain because of a Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

I highly doubt this will happen.

 

[steve_bank]

Analysis from reporting.

1. The war will go on until Russia runs out of misisles.

2. Negotiate land for peace and Russia will rebuild its army and attack again. I agree as long as Putin is in power.


The Russian economy is probably collapsing. But then the Russians are probably used to deprivation by now. going all the way back to the Soviets.

In the 80s a physicist I woredd witin the 80s said the Soviets had the best scince in the wolrd. They serched for talnted kids and oput them in special programs.

The problem as I sawit was they had no mechanism for translating science to production in the economy. We have profit notivated investment in new ideas and free market competition.

 

[bilby]

Battles in Kherson seem confusing. Both sides are reporting huge victories, and they can't both be right. Apparently communications from the region are cut off so there's no independent information.

My opinion/guess: Either Russia has really amped up its propaganda game, or Ukraine's counter-attack is not going very well. If Ukraine loses in both East and South, it'll have a huge negative impact on morale.

Everyone always claims great victories.

I vaguely recall reading an account by an elderly German during WWII who said that he knew that the newspapers were lying to him, but could nevertheless get a good feel for how well, or how badly, things were going, by looking at whether the latest great victory was closer to, or further from, Berlin than the previous great victory.