Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine joining NATO?

[lpetrich]

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but after that confrontation's end, it has not seemed to have a big mission.

Most western-European nations are members, with the exceptions of Ireland, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, and Finland. A much-feared fate in western Europe was "Finlandization", becoming unwilling to challenge the Soviet Union.

From  NATO,

The first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay, stated in 1949 that the organization's goal was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."

About the US, Europeans had two suspicions, which can be summarized as:

• Being unwilling to risk Chicago to save Hamburg
• Being willing to risk Hamburg to save Chicago

As to Germany, there was a joke that the rest of Europe wanted a pacifist Germany, and that they were now getting one.

After the fall of the Soviet bloc, the two Germanies reunified, or West Germany annexed East Germany, depending on how you view it. With it came East Germany joining NATO as part of the unified German nation. There has been some controversy about whether this involved a commitment not to expand NATO further eastward. I think that it may have been something considered for a while, but not finally agreed to.

NATO has expanded into eastern Europe, and it now includes all the non-Soviet nations of the former Warsaw Pact, three ex-Soviet nations, two ex-Yugoslav ones, and Albania.

But with the civil war in Ukraine, there's talk of NATO expanding even further.

From an advocate of further expansion: For NATO, Benefits of Adding Finland and Sweden Outweigh Costs

Cold War-era fears are resurfacing in northeastern Europe. Over the past year, Russian aircraft have violated the air space of nearly all Nordic and Baltic countries at a worrying rate, while this past fall, Sweden hunted for a suspected Russian submarine thought to be lurking in the waters off Stockholm. Those Russian provocations, along with the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, have recharged debates in Finland and Sweden over joining NATO.

Those two nations have long cooperated with NATO, even while being nonmembers.

Ukraine's Parliament Drops Non-aligned Status

Lawmakers voted overwhelmingly scrap the non-aligned status, which was adopted in 2010 under Russian pressure and had prevented Kyiv from entering into any military alliances. ...

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has said he will seek membership in NATO, the Western military alliance, as Kyiv fights Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine.

That may take several years to achieve, but failing that, Ukraine can improve cooperation with NATO.

Though Putin's Bay of Pigs invasion, as I call it, has been more successful than the original, it has had the same effect on its opponents. The original one gave Fidel Castro support as an opponent of the Yanqui gringo imperialists, while the current one is making Russia's western neighbors consider expanding NATO even further eastward.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Agreed. Russian actions have pushed Ukraine to the west. Prior to taking Crimera, Ukraine was 50/50. Now they want NATO. The 'Bear' has scared the other eastern countries such as Poland, Finland, and the Baltic countries. They are now forming their own reactionary forces and are beefing up their defenses.

 

[barbos]

The thing I find interesting that even though that Western Media is pretty much unanimously against Russia, people in the West are not, it's really 50-50. It seems they don't yet agree with propaganda.

 

[Davka]

The thing I find interesting that even though that Western Media is pretty much unanimously against Russia, people in the West are not, it's really 50-50. It seems they don't yet agree with propaganda.

"Propaganda"?

So you think Putin's naked aggression and illegal invasion is "propaganda"?

 

[Bronzeage]

Admitting Ukraine to NATO would be like buying a burning house.

 

[bilby]

The thing I find interesting that even though that Western Media is pretty much unanimously against Russia, people in the West are not, it's really 50-50. It seems they don't yet agree with propaganda.

"Propaganda"?

So you think Putin's naked aggression and illegal invasion is "propaganda"?

Putin has been very careful to avoid either naked aggression or an illegal invasion; rather he has cloaked his aggression as support for ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, and has kept the illegal invasion at arm's length, maintaining 'plausible deniability' by stretching the terms of existing lawful agreements that allow for a Russian military presence, particularly in Crimea.

The least awful solution to this whole mess would probably be to split Ukraine into an Eastern portion containing the majority of Russian speakers, and a western portion containing the majority of Ukrainian speakers; A less stable, but perhaps more practical solution might be to split further east, roughly along the current line of conflict, but that would leave a lot of Russians in the East of the reduced nation of Ukraine, with the inherent risk of the whole thing kicking off again in a few years.

Whatever happens, the history and linguistic/ethnic mix of the region will cause problems; the question is whether these can be made to go away over time, or whether they will remain a running sore that becomes inflamed every time there is a perceived injustice on either side.

The idea that a rapacious Putin is seeking to annexe some or all of plucky little blameless Ukraine, is as overly simplistic and unhelpful as the equally stupid idea that Ukraine is a US-backed neo-fascist state bent on terrorising the poor blameless Russians in the east to achieve American geopolitical goals.

Both propaganda positions contain grains of truth, but the reality on the ground is a big mess, and neither side seems to be interested in making things better, rather than worse.

Certainly it makes no sense for Ukraine, in her current state of unrest, to become part of NATO. Putin doesn't strike me as being enough of a fool as to want Western Ukraine shackled to his country; But equally he isn't about to let his major Black Sea port come under any kind of threat; particularly not by allowing his continued access to be controlled by an unfriendly government in Kiev.

The very word, jingoism, was coined in a song supportive of the British involvement in what became the Crimean War; European imperial powers have sought to restrict Russian access to the Black Sea for a long time, and successive Russian governments, from Tsars, to General Secretaries of the Communist Party, to Presidents have always understood the importance to Russia's interests of preventing them from so doing. The British and French were wrong to try to fight the Russians for control of the Crimea in the 1850s, and NATO and the USA would be wrong to repeat that mistake 160 years later.

The west should stay out of this fight.

 

[barbos]

The thing I find interesting that even though that Western Media is pretty much unanimously against Russia, people in the West are not, it's really 50-50. It seems they don't yet agree with propaganda.

"Propaganda"?

Yes.

 

[barbos]

The very word, jingoism, was coined in a song supportive of the British involvement in what became the Crimean War; European imperial powers have sought to restrict Russian access to the Black Sea for a long time, and successive Russian governments, from Tsars, to General Secretaries of the Communist Party, to Presidents have always understood the importance to Russia's interests of preventing them from so doing. The British and French were wrong to try to fight the Russians for control of the Crimea in the 1850s, and NATO and the USA would be wrong to repeat that mistake 160 years later.

The west should stay out of this fight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jingoism
Interesting, I did not know that.

 

[dystopian]

The thing I find interesting that even though that Western Media is pretty much unanimously against Russia, people in the West are not, it's really 50-50. It seems they don't yet agree with propaganda.

"Propaganda"?

So you think Putin's naked aggression and illegal invasion is "propaganda"?

No. Don't encourage Edited. You don't know what you're doing.

Putin has been very careful to avoid either naked aggression or an illegal invasion;

Really? Because he clearly hasn't avoided an illegal invasion; it violated treaties and a majority of the world's governments have declared the crimean invasion/annexation to be illegal. I guess that's avoiding an illegal invasion in the same way that committing mass murder is avoiding committing murder.

rather he has cloaked his aggression as support for ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, and has kept the illegal invasion at arm's length, maintaining 'plausible deniability' by stretching the terms of existing lawful agreements that allow for a Russian military presence, particularly in Crimea.

Except he didn't 'stretch' those terms but violated them outright.

The least awful solution to this whole mess would probably be to split Ukraine into an Eastern portion containing the majority of Russian speakers, and a western portion containing the majority of Ukrainian speakers; A less stable, but perhaps more practical solution might be to split further east, roughly along the current line of conflict, but that would leave a lot of Russians in the East of the reduced nation of Ukraine, with the inherent risk of the whole thing kicking off again in a few years.

No, the least awful solution would be for Russia to give Crimea back; and to then give the Crimeans and Ukrainians an actually reasonable amount of time to prepare for a vote on the matter, instead of invading and setting up a sham referendum within just 2 weeks.

Certainly it makes no sense for Ukraine, in her current state of unrest, to become part of NATO. Putin doesn't strike me as being enough of a fool as to want Western Ukraine shackled to his country; But equally he isn't about to let his major Black Sea port come under any kind of threat; particularly not by allowing his continued access to be controlled by an unfriendly government in Kiev.

Nonsense; it makes *perfect* sense for Ukraine to join NATO. They just had a stronger foreign power invade and steal a large chunk of their territory; with said foreign power continuing to foster unrest and rebel sentiment in other parts of the country while constantly threathening all-out war. The idea that Ukraine would be better off trying to appease Russia became absurd the moment Russia annexed Crimea despite promising they wouldn't do so just a few weeks earlier. Under such circumstances, any country would seek to make military alliances in opposition to what they quite rightly consider their enemy. Whether it makes sense for us to admit them right this moment is another; but it makes perfect sense for Ukraine.

The very word, jingoism, was coined in a song supportive of the British involvement in what became the Crimean War; European imperial powers have sought to restrict Russian access to the Black Sea for a long time, and successive Russian governments, from Tsars, to General Secretaries of the Communist Party, to Presidents have always understood the importance to Russia's interests of preventing them from so doing. The British and French were wrong to try to fight the Russians for control of the Crimea in the 1850s, and NATO and the USA would be wrong to repeat that mistake 160 years later.

The west should stay out of this fight.

Neither history nor Russia's interests in the Black Sea justify its present actions; if they did then Europe would be entirely justified if we decided to just march in and take Crimea for ourselves. No, what we have here is a country being punished because it would rather economically align itself with the west than with Russia. If a country comes to the west in friendship of its own free will, as Ukraine did, and is invaded and torn apart for it by an Eastern power, then why on earth would you think the west should 'stay out of it'? We have a practical and moral interest in the matter. I for one, do not want a dictator in my backyard, armed with nukes and who just grabbed the Russian equivalent of the Sudetenland.

If Russia wants the west to leave it alone, it will need to learn to let its neighbors chart their own course.

 

[barbos]

Well, history does not teach GB and their successor US anything.
They will keep meddling in places which have nothing to do with them - Black Sea, Middle East, Asia.

 

[Davka]

It seems to me that the way the West is currently dealing with Putin's expansionist dreams of a new USSR is as good as it gets. Putin isn't stupid, so he won't directly invade NATO countries, and thus does not pose an immediate military threat to NATO. Slapping Russia with sanctions is already trashing the Russian economy, and Putin's attempts to artificially shore up the Ruble are failing. Russia does not exist in a vacuum, and all the soviet-style propaganda in the world will not keep Putin's approval ratings high once the economic crunch hits the man on the street.

I have to give Putin credit for subsidizing vodka prices as the economy begins to collapse. He knows where the values of the proletariat lie.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The thing I find interesting that even though that Western Media is pretty much unanimously against Russia, people in the West are not, it's really 50-50. It seems they don't yet agree with propaganda.

It seems like you believe the propaganda out of Moscow 100%.

- - - Updated - - -

Admitting Ukraine to NATO would be like buying a burning house.

True. It's too late, we shouldn't admit them.

 

[Fullmetal Atheist]

Sweeden and Finland, if they were so inclined, would be excellent additions to NATO. They have well equipped, funded, and trained military's that have kept up with the times far better than most actual NATO countries.

Ukraine on the other hand, as Bronzeage noted with his burning house analogy, could be quite messy. In the short term they might require direct infusions of or NATO troops to shore up their borders and could provoke Russia into going full retard (wholesale invasion of Ukraine) to head it off. However, in the long term once Ukraine was back on its feet having Ukraine as a NATO state would give any future Russian leader pause for attempting further bullying of other Eastern European states for fear that such actions would once again spawn an increase in NATO applications.

 

[barbos]

It seems like you believe the propaganda out of Moscow 100%.

No, I don't believe propaganda out of Moscow, but at the same time I don't believe western propaganda, which you apparently swallow without much thinking.

 

[barbos]

Sweeden and Finland, if they were so inclined, would be excellent additions to NATO. They have well equipped, funded, and trained military's that have kept up with the times far better than most actual NATO countries.

Ukraine on the other hand, as Bronzeage noted with his burning house analogy, could be quite messy. In the short term they might require direct infusions of or NATO troops to shore up their borders and could provoke Russia into going full retard (wholesale invasion of Ukraine) to head it off. However, in the long term once Ukraine was back on its feet having Ukraine as a NATO state would give any future Russian leader pause for attempting further bullying of other Eastern European states for fear that such actions would once again spawn an increase in NATO applications.

NATO is an aggressor here, not Russia. It was NATO who attacked Russia in 2008 in Georgia and it is NATO who attacks Russia now.
And it was 19 century NATO who attacked Russia in Crimea.
Europe should stop trying to shutdown Russia already.

 

[Davka]

NATO is an aggressor here, not Russia. It was NATO who attacked Russia in 2008 in Gerorgia and it is NATO who attacks Russia now.

Yeah, those are NATO troops in those Russian uniforms, driving Russian tanks! Sneaky NATO.

 

[Harry Bosch]

NATO is an aggressor here, not Russia. It was NATO who attacked Russia in 2008 in Georgia and it is NATO who attacks Russia now. And it was 19 century NATO who attacked Russia in Crimea. Europe should stop trying to shutdown Russia already.

Are you suggesting that the 'Little green men' are American soldiers rather than Russian??

 

[Hickdive]

Despite the uncritical support for Putin and Russia from some quarters (NATO attacking Russia in Georgia, seriously?) NATO should tread very carefully. The Russians are sensitive in a way we in the west cannot conceive. Watching Putin's question and answer session after his state of the nation address should disabuse anyone of the notion that Russians think or behave in a way that we consider rational.

Historic precedents abound. Had Stalin not invaded Poland with Hitler then eastern Poland would have been a buffer between the two dictatorships. I doubt it would have done anything to prevent Hitler eventually attacking the Soviet Union but the Nazis having to cross hundred of miles of Poland may have given Stalin the time to shake himself out of his panic earlier.

NATO should therefore avoid permitting border states to join. This would create a buffer to soothe Russian nationalism. Unfortunate for the Ukraine and similar nations because Russia will inevitably bully them if not outright absorb them on the most spurious grounds but, frankly, anything east of Germany isn't worth the hassle.

Similarly, driving the Russian economy into the ground for political spite is just a re-hash of the allies behaviour towards the German Weimar Republic in sucking the economy dry. Creating economic pressure creates social unrest and from that unrest will arise extremism.

 

[Davka]

NATO is an aggressor here, not Russia. It was NATO who attacked Russia in 2008 in Georgia and it is NATO who attacks Russia now. And it was 19 century NATO who attacked Russia in Crimea. Europe should stop trying to shutdown Russia already.

Are you suggesting that the 'Little green men' are American soldiers rather than Russian??

I love the concept of "19 (sic) century NATO." Boy, that NATO was seriously aggressive in 1847!

 

[Harry Bosch]

Hickdrive: great post, totally agree. Ukraine won't be joining but NATO. But they want trade with the west. Russia is trying to bully them into joining the Russian economic group. This is the larger issue than NATO.