How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ministry of Truth (Pravda) Moscow
Contact: Baghdad Bob Bolshoi Barbos

The war special military operation to bully and conquer an independent nation de-Nazify Ukraine in a conflict started by the scoundrel in the Kremlin NATO continues to go belly up according to plan.

For example, on Saturday, our Dear Leader, Vladimir V. Putin, dedicated a large ferris wheel in Moscow. It is much larger than any Ferris wheel in Ukraine. So we win!

In accordance with our plans, Russian forces are folding like a cheap tent advancing briskly west, away from Ukraine, toward Russia. This advance is going splendidly, and is facing no opposition from outmatched Ukrainian forces except from behind.

This cowardly retreat bold advance is a repetition of our dreadful debacle glorious success in Kyiv, when our forces retreated advanced north away from the Ukrainian capital to ignominiously botch successfully complete our initial campaign of conquest de-Nazification.

I can report unequivocally that there are currently no Ukrainian tanks rolling through the streets of Moscow, and, if there are, the invaders are either burning up in their tanks, committing suicide, or surrendering by the hundreds of thousands. The blue-and-yellow flag currently flying over the Kremlin is a trick of light and shadow.

Baghdad Bob Bolshoi Barbos

Kinda like this:

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

To stop its soldiers from retreating or surrendering Russia in the past would shoot them. Ukraine is working very hard to get Russian units to surrender, promising them good treatment. The Russians don't shoot their soldiers anymore because if they did they would surrender in droves knowing only execution awaits them back in Russia. So what do the Putinistas do now? They're really kinda fucked because the brutal tool they used in the past to force performance is gone. I don't think they'll start shooting their soldiers again which is why so many are running for their lives just as they would have in past conflicts if they'd known they would not have been shot.

 

[TV and credit cards]

To stop its soldiers from retreating or surrendering Russia in the past would shoot them. Ukraine is working very hard to get Russian units to surrender, promising them good treatment. The Russians don't shoot their soldiers anymore because if they did they would surrender in droves knowing only execution awaits them back in Russia. So what do the Putinistas do now? They're really kinda fucked because the brutal tool they used in the past to force performance is gone. I don't think they'll start shooting their soldiers again which is why so many are running for their lives just as they would have in past conflicts if they'd known they would not have been shot.

By George, there may be something to this.

A spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence said Russian troops were surrendering en masse as “they understand the hopelessness of their situation.” A Ukrainian presidential adviser said there were so many POWs that the country was running out of space to accommodate them.

12:40 PM Posting

 

[lpetrich]

NOËL on Twitter: "Situation right now at Sloviansk axis. Added in white the area of advance.
Lyman push ongoing right now
Ukrainian forces are almost at Kreminna outskirts
Bridgehead at Sviatohirsk is expanded further up the SD
More news expected later. Waiting for confirmations. (pic link)" / Twitter

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "BREAKING:
Sviatohirsk has been officially liberated by the Ukrainian Army.
It’s located south-east of Izyum, toward Severodonetsk. (vid link)" / Twitter

До біса війна on Twitter: "#Ukraine confirmed to be in control of #Sviatohirsk near #Lyman. While earlier rumors of a Ukrainian assault on Lyman seem to have been disinformation, the capture of this town imperils the Russian position there. (pic link)" / Twitter
Meaning that Lyman is still being held by Russia.

Invaders Fleeing Towards Luhansk And Russia. Multi-Kilometer Traffic Jam In Stanytsia Luhanska | Ukrainian news - just northeast of Luhansk itself.

 

[steve_bank]

Apparently the Russian army does not have the ability to build a combat bridge when bridges are blown.

What do you mean? Russia has built plenty of pontoon bridges.

I mean leaving troops on their own without finding a way to supply them speaks incompetence.

Along with a disregard for the survival of people sent to war.

 

[steve_bank]

To stop its soldiers from retreating or surrendering Russia in the past would shoot them. Ukraine is working very hard to get Russian units to surrender, promising them good treatment. The Russians don't shoot their soldiers anymore because if they did they would surrender in droves knowing only execution awaits them back in Russia. So what do the Putinistas do now? They're really kinda fucked because the brutal tool they used in the past to force performance is gone. I don't think they'll start shooting their soldiers again which is why so many are running for their lives just as they would have in past conflicts if they'd known they would not have been shot.

In WWII political officers followed soldiers into combat. Families were at risk for not fighting.

 

[lpetrich]

Turning to the south,
Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on Twitter: "FLASH TRAFFIC /KHERSON 1500/ UTC 12 SEP/ Breaking information from the UKR General Staff reports that RU units on the N bank of the Dnieper are presently negotiating the surrender of their positions and weapons. It is unknown if this a localized or a general capitulation. (pic link)" / Twitter

der regulator on Twitter: "Big news! According to @YAmzallagh from @MriyaReport #Russian officers are negotiating the surrender of all forces west of #Dnipro river. #Kreminna n-e of #Severodonetsk is allegedly taken, cutting off troops in the west around #Lyman. #RussianUkrainianWar (pic link)" / Twitter with a picture of a white flag.

We'll see what becomes of that. In the meantime,

Defense of Ukraine on Twitter: "It is official: Vysokopillya, Novovoznesenske, Bilohirka, Myrolyubivka and Sukhyj Stavok have been liberated. The occupiers are preparing to "regroup" in the Kherson region as well. As in Kharkiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are helping them with this." / Twitter

Vysokopillya - that north-end town liberated recently.
Novovoznesenske - a little SE of V'pillya
Bilohirka - between V'pillya and Kherson
Myrolyubivka - NW of Kherson
Sukhyj Stavok - further in from B'hirka

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "BREAKING:
The Ukrainian Army has advanced many kilometers in Kherson too.
The info was provided 3 hours ago by the spokeswoman of Operational Command "South" Natalia Humeniuk.
Oleksandrivka by the coast has been liberated. Russia is stretched by action on many fronts.

(pic link)" / Twitter

I've seen speculation that the Kherson offensive was a feint meant to distract the Russians from their occupied parts near Kharkiv. But I think that Russia may be stretched a bit thin, and the Russian military decided to respond to what seemed like the most immediate threat.

The remaining Russian-controlled parts of territory north of Kharkiv are being reconquered by Ukraine.

WarMonitor on Twitter: "Lyptsi is fully under Ukrainian control (pic link)" / Twitter

Arvelleg on Twitter: "@markito0171
@GeoConfirmed Ukrainian forces at Lypzi administration building at 50.208514, 36.419290, Lypzi, Kharkiv Oblast (links)" / Twitter

Euromaidan Press on Twitter: "Residents of liberated Kozacha Lopan greet Ukrainian soldiers with tears of happiness (links)" / Twitter

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's not like somebody might discover that the things are unserviceable; They're not allowed to test one, so why not sign off on the inspection on the basis of getting a free bottle of vodka in exchange for your John Hancock?

Uh, models based on prior actual tests .... the data is there to be exploited.

Bye bye vodka/Hancock

They know what the weapon is supposed to do. The question is whether it currently will perform to spec, or even at all. Has it been maintained properly?

 

[lpetrich]

Defeat in Ukraine is having consequences back home.

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | on Twitter: "IT BEGINS: The Moscow Times reports that after the collapse of the Kharkiv front, Putin retreated to his Sochi mansion and cancelled meetings with his military staff. In other news: the Kremlin announces referendums on the annexation of UKR territories have been cancelled. (pic link)" / Twitter
The picture shows a Moscow Times headline:

"Полный крах": Путин отменил совещание с генералами после крупнейшего поражения армии с начала войны.

Google Translate:
"Complete collapse": Putin canceled a meeting with the generals after the biggest defeat of the army since the beginning of the war.

Anonymous Operations on Twitter: "JUST IN: Deputies in 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have released a joint statement demanding that Putin resign.
#FckPutin #ByeByePutin (pix link)" / Twitter

Nervous Kremlin faces growing efforts from all sides within Russia to topple Putin as coup rumours swell in Moscow

• Staunch Putin loyalist Kadyrov criticizes Kremlin on Telegram
• Lawmakers in St Petersburg urge parliament to prosecute Putin for treason
• Lawmakers in Moscow call for imminent Putin removal
• Tensions between Kremlin and security service FSB growing fast
• Social media activity in Russia in overdrive
• Analysts convinced Kremlin coup may be imminent
• ‘Siloviki’ group of former FSB officers pushing hard to replace Putin

...
In fact, one of Putin’s staunchest allies, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a Kremlin loyalist, has criticised the Russian Army’s performance in Ukraine following a humiliating defeat in Izyum over the weekend, seen as a critical supply hub in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region.

In an 11-minute message posted on Telegram, Kadyrov concluded the invasion is not going to plan and he may feel forced to lecture Putin on what is not going well.

with this quote: “If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of the special military operation, I will be forced to go to the country’s leadership to explain to them the situation on the ground.”

Noting Kadyrov criticises Russian MoD for surrendering Izium, Kupiansk and Balaklia

Ramzan Kadyrov, the governor of Russia's Chechnya, has criticised “the strategy” of Russia’s Defence Ministry and said he would “reach senior-most officials to spell out his message” if there are no changes into Russia’s military plans, as per his Telegram.

“I’m not a strategist like those in the Defence Ministry. But it’s clear that mistakes were made. I think they will draw a few conclusions,” he said, adding that all the settlements will get back under Russian control. “We have our men out there, fighters prepared specifically for such situations. 10 more thousand fighters are ready to join them. We’ll reach Odesa in the nearest future.”

Also noting
Дмитрий Палюга on Twitter: "Совет МО Смольнинское принял решение обратиться к депутатам Госдумы с предложением выдвинуть обвинение в госизмене против президента Путина для отрешения его от должности
Решение поддержало большинство присутствующих депутатов (pic link)" / Twitter
Google Translate:

The Council of the Smolninskoye Municipal District decided to appeal to the State Duma deputies with a proposal to bring charges of treason against President Putin in order to remove him from office

The decision was supported by the majority of the deputies present.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

If you really want to piss someone off tell them they don't really exist, don't register, don't have an identity. The Ruski dittoheads have their heads up their asses without a doubt. The Putinator isn't going to take the fall for these recent failures, he'll delegate the blame somehow, but it will only save face because he controls the media. It doesn't change anything. Maybe someone will fall out of a window.

 

[steve_bank]

Putin could declare mission accomplished and Ukraine has been de-nazified.

I expect he will continue to rain destruction on Ukraine as long as he can.

 

[lpetrich]

This reminds me of what happened in Russia over a century ago.

In 1905, Russia fought a war with Japan over who would get to be the imperialist in NE China and nearby. Japan won, kicking Russian hiney very hard, despite Russian officials thinking that theirs was the stronger nation.

That helped provoke the Revolution of 1905. It failed, though not without some concessions from the Tsarist regime.

In 1914, Russia got involved in the Great War, as it was called back then, but was not very successful. Russian soldiers deserted and mutinied, and in early 1917, Tsar Nicholas II abdicated without naming a successor.

 

[pood]

This reminds me of what happened in Russia over a century ago.

In 1905, Russia fought a war with Japan over who would get to be the imperialist in NE China and nearby. Japan won, kicking Russian hiney very hard, despite Russian officials thinking that theirs was the stronger nation.

That helped provoke the Revolution of 1905. It failed, though not without some concessions from the Tsarist regime.

In 1914, Russia got involved in the Great War, as it was called back then, but was not very successful. Russian soldiers deserted and mutinied, and in early 1917, Tsar Nicholas II abdicated without naming a successor.

Let’s not forget the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan, which certainly was a contributing factor to the breakup of the U.S.S.R. And the Soviets lost far fewer people there, than Russia is now. We can hope that this disaster precipitates the dissolution of Russia into an amalgam of weak, independent states.

 

[Patooka]

Putin could declare mission accomplished and Ukraine has been de-nazified.

Nazis lose every war they have been in.
Ukraine is currently winning.
Therefore, no more Nazis in Ukraine.

Mission Accomplished!

 

[steve_bank]

Russia, Japan, and Europens were all players in ling running geopolitical battle for dominance.

In my amateur analyst view WWII was the culmination and it swept away the old order. China and Russia in some ways are going back to the old destructive geopolitics.

 

[lpetrich]

A resident of Vovchansk received a Russian passport three days before the deoccupation of the city

Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "Lithuanian volunteer soldiers took part in the liberation of Vovchansk from the Russian Army.
Well done. The old commonwealth bond is alive and well.
(pic link)" / Twitter

But I'm getting impatient. In Ukraine, it's now the middle of the night.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Let’s not forget the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan, which certainly was a contributing factor to the breakup of the U.S.S.R. And the Soviets lost far fewer people there, than Russia is now. We can hope that this disaster precipitates the dissolution of Russia into an amalgam of weak, independent states.

I would actually like to see Russia or its separate states become healthy, functioning democracies. That's going to be a tough haul as the people of Russia have no idea what that is. If they ever get onto that proper democratic path we need to help them just as much as we are helping Ukraine. We really do.

 

[Gospel]

I would actually like to see Russia or its separate states become healthy, functioning democracies.

This is going to trigger an allergic reaction from a certain pro Russian anti west forum member.

 

[pood]

Let’s not forget the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan, which certainly was a contributing factor to the breakup of the U.S.S.R. And the Soviets lost far fewer people there, than Russia is now. We can hope that this disaster precipitates the dissolution of Russia into an amalgam of weak, independent states.

I would actually like to see Russia or its separate states become healthy, functioning democracies. That's going to be a tough haul as the people of Russia have no idea what that is. If they ever get onto that proper democratic path we need to help them just as much as we are helping Ukraine. We really do.

I would like to see the U.S. become a healthy, functioning democracy. Since it is not, I doubt we can provide much help in that regard to a post-Putin Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

This is what I wrote in April:

Satellite images show the dead bodies were on the streets [of Bucha] weeks before Russians left.

Every survivor confirms the story that Russians were killing people indiscriminately. If it was fake, would the Ukrainian propagandists been able to co-opt hundreds of people in a matter of days to tell the same story?

And the last point, that Russia has nothing to gain, is silly. They intend to crush the morale of the enemy. Same kind of massacres are now taking place in Mariupol (though that's probably mostly done by now), Izyum, Kherson and other places occupied by Russia. We just haven't heard about these massacres yet, just like we didn't hear about Bucha before the Russians withdrew..

... there is absolutely no reason to think that Russia would act any differently in Izyum, as it did in the North. But they will probably do a better job cleaning up the bodies.

And now, as expected, the evidence of war crimes in the liberated territories are beginning to surface:



Bucha and other towns were not outliers. They were systematic and planned atrocities that Russia carried out everywhere.