How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[pood]

I feel such compassion, and also pity, for the poor soldiers who do not know what’s going on. Not unlike our American soldiers sent to Iraq to die for the neocons’ immoral war. And these Russian conscripts, who didn’t even volunteer, and are being sent to die, with only lies in their hands. It is truly very sad.

At least U.S. soldiers were well-equipped and had cutting-edge technology. All for a neo-con wet dream, of course, but still, they weren’t exactly the kind of cannon fodder that the bastard in the Kremlin makes of his own people.

 

[pood]

It’s also worth noting that U.S. soldiers then, and now, are volunteers. They are well-trained and paid, and equipped with the best material. Russian soliders are conscripts. They are poorly trained, poorly fed, poorly armed.

LIke his U.S. butt boy Marmalade Mussolini, Putin couldn’t care less about any single person on earth except for himself. He and his butt boy both must pay for their crimes.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukrainian Forces are reportedly very near Kreminna and Severodonetsk, and reports out of Luhansk are that Russian units have vacated both places. Good stuff.

I also took in an article explaining the absence of Russian air power. Apparently the Ukrainians have a potent air defense and Ruski pilots just don't want to fly into it.

If I had to venture a guess as to Ukraine's strategy at this point it is to threaten the sector north of Luhansk, which at this point is probably pretty weak anyway and take it as far as they can while simultaneously keeping the pressure on east of Donetsk. Ukraine's wet dream at this point is to drive south through Luhansk and cut off Donetsk.

 

[Copernicus]

Opposition to Putin is growing fast, so he must be very worried that it will snowball into a significant action by those who see him as a weakened autocrat. Someone could see this as an opportune time to push Putin out, given that nothing short of full mobilization would seem to solve Russia's military weakness. However, mobilization would likely be seen as a further sign of weakness and lead to widespread protests.

List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says​

 

[TV and credit cards]

Opposition to Putin is growing fast, so he must be very worried that it will snowball into a significant action by those who see him as a weakened autocrat. Someone could see this as an opportune time to push Putin out, given that nothing short of full mobilization would seem to solve Russia's military weakness. However, mobilization would likely be seen as a further sign of weakness and lead to widespread protests.

List of Russian municipal deputies calling for Putin’s resignation grows to nearly 50, local official says​

And

A local councilor from St. Petersburg who called on Vladimir Putin to resign says he's been overwhelmed by the level of support from members of the public. Dmitry Palyuga, of St. Petersburg's Smolny municipal council, co-authored a petition calling on the Russian president to step down that was sent to Russia's State Duma.

 

[TV and credit cards]

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine.



Olaf: Withdraw your troops immediately or I'll... I'll...

Vlad: You'll what? Give them your tank?

 

[lpetrich]

Not much new today.
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter: "️ Governor: Russian army leaves key town of Kreminna.
The city is "completely empty," and the Ukrainian flag raised by local partisans still flies high, Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai said on Telegram." / Twitter
then
The Kyiv Independent on Twitter: "Kreminna lies only 25 kilometers northwest of Severodonetsk, which Russian forces occupied over a month of fierce fighting over May and June." / Twitter

This is a bit east of Kupyansk, across the Oskil river:
Churchill on Twitter: "For some information, ZSU expanding foothold in the area of Borova. Svatove is an obvious next target. (pic link)" / Twitter
Further east.

How are pro-Kremlin Russian media portraying Ukraine’s victories? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera - "The narrative has shifted since September 6, when Ukraine began a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region."

One hardliner compared the setback to Russia's losing against Japan back in 1905.

Ukraine advancing in Kharkiv region but fighting still raging, deputy defence minister says | Reuters

Ukraine piles pressure on retreating Russian troops | AP News

 

[ZiprHead]

MSN

Ivan Pechorin, 39, managing director of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, reportedly fell off a boat at full speed and died Saturday near Russky Island in the Sea of Japan in Primorsky Krai, Russia, near Vladivostock, about 5,800 miles east of Moscow.

Aty least no windows were broken.

 

[Elixir]

No idea wtf is really going on over there but it sounds like another bad day for Russia.
Guardian (I know, I know) reports

Russian intelligence officers and military commanders flee Crimea, Kyiv claims – live​

Hmmm.
Who to believe? Pootey seems quite certain he’s on the verge of an historic and glorious victory.
Someone is deluded … and/or lying.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

No idea wtf is really going on over there but it sounds like another bad day for Russia.
Guardian (I know, I know) reports

Russian intelligence officers and military commanders flee Crimea, Kyiv claims – live​

Hmmm.
Who to believe? Pootey seems quite certain he’s on the verge of an historic and glorious victory.
Someone is deluded … and/or lying.

Definitely wouldn't believe Poot or anything from his circle, maybe except for people falling off ships or out of windows or being poisoned or dedicating Ferris wheels.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Wait, so Russia is so messed up, they can't even go in circles?

They don't want to--they're afraid of circling the drain.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Unbelievable if the morning reports are true.

Russians surrendering, multiple towns liberated, and Moscow acknowledging retreat.

Moscow acknowledging?? Unbelievable!

I've expected to see the Russian lines to collapse due to the supply situation, but I didn't expect Moscow to tell the truth.

 

[steve_bank]

Can't find a link.

Reported on BBC America today Russian propaganda is now saying the reason for the failures is that Russia is not just fighting Ukraine, it is fighting America, Europe, and NATO. It is not just a war with Ukraine, Russia is in a war with NATO.

The existential threat to Russia claim. From interviews with Russians on the street some believe it.

No shit Sherlock, Russia is indeed failing because of western aid.

From the videos of reclaimed towns it is pretty bleak. Not just a retreat, but a rout of the Russians. Reports of solfiers surrendering and runing across the Russian border. Ukrainian troops are looking for hiding Russian soldiers and Ukrainian collaborators.

A Ukrainian comment on CNN, the Russians were living like pigs.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Can't find a link.

Reported on BBC America today Russian propaganda is now saying the reason for the failures is that Russia is not just fighting Ukraine, it is fighting America, Europe, and NATO. It is not just a war with Ukraine, Russia is in a war with NATO.

The existential threat to Russia claim. From interviews with Russians on the street some believe it.

No shit Sherlock, Russia is indeed failing because of western aid.

From the videos of reclaimed towns it is pretty bleak. Not just a retreat, but a rout of the Russians. Reports of solfiers surrendering and runing across the Russian border. Ukrainian troops are looking for hiding Russian soldiers and Ukrainian collaborators.

A Ukrainian comment on CNN, the Russians were living like pigs.

"Fighting NATO." Yeah. They finally found a bullshit narrative to land on. If they were fighting NATO, they'd know it. They'd all know it. It wouldn't need to be on the news.

 

[Ford]

Can't find a link.

Reported on BBC America today Russian propaganda is now saying the reason for the failures is that Russia is not just fighting Ukraine, it is fighting America, Europe, and NATO. It is not just a war with Ukraine, Russia is in a war with NATO.

The existential threat to Russia claim. From interviews with Russians on the street some believe it.

No shit Sherlock, Russia is indeed failing because of western aid.

From the videos of reclaimed towns it is pretty bleak. Not just a retreat, but a rout of the Russians. Reports of solfiers surrendering and runing across the Russian border. Ukrainian troops are looking for hiding Russian soldiers and Ukrainian collaborators.

A Ukrainian comment on CNN, the Russians were living like pigs.

"Fighting NATO." Yeah. They finally found a bullshit narrative to land on. If they were fighting NATO, they'd know it. They'd all know it. It wouldn't need to be on the news.

IF they were fighting NATO, it would have been over months ago. The incompetent Russian military can barely take on a neighbor that's being given assistance by some NATO countries. Unfortunately (if our resident Russian partisan is any indication), the people of that nation don't seem to have yet realized that their dreams of a "Greater Russia" or their troops triumphantly restoring them to world power status were just that...dreams.

 

[TV and credit cards]

There will be a new weapons package coming to Ukraine soon says John Kirby, Pentagon spokesperson. Ukrainian Armed Forces can take time to secure the gains they've made and prepare for a new assault. They are on offense now. They can hold and attack at their choosing. It doesn't look like Russia can reinforce and counter with much of anything.

 

[SLD]

This is a fascinating video, showing Ukrainian forces advancing. But listen to what is said towards the end!

I can't make out what they are saying. Care to elaborate?

It’s quite distinct. He says, in American English, “I need 50 cal ammo.”

 

[steve_bank]

A good summary.

The curtain protecting the dignity of Russia's military has been pulled back | CNN

The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.

www.cnn.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

A good summary.

The curtain protecting the dignity of Russia's military has been pulled back | CNN

The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.

www.cnn.com

Pretty good read on the situation. It leaves me questioning why there is so much caution remaining wrt Putin's next move. He really doesn't have much of a next move and Ukraine needs to exploit that present weakness to its maximum. What seems to be directing western thought at this point is a fear of Putin's military when it's been shown there isn't one to fear anymore. We haven't crossed that bridge yet. One thing has certainly been demonstrated, namely that NATO does not need to fear Russian aggression anymore.

 

[Harry Bosch]

A good summary.

The curtain protecting the dignity of Russia's military has been pulled back | CNN

The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.

www.cnn.com

Pretty good read on the situation. It leaves me questioning why there is so much caution remaining wrt Putin's next move. He really doesn't have much of a next move and Ukraine needs to exploit that present weakness to its maximum. What seems to be directing western thought at this point is a fear of Putin's military when it's been shown there isn't one to fear anymore. We haven't crossed that bridge yet. One thing has certainly been demonstrated, namely that NATO does not need to fear Russian aggression anymore.

That was a very good article. It's so odd to me that the Russians won't seriously negotiate (they still claim that they will only accept total annihilation of Ukraine). I totally get why Ukraine doesn't want negotiations. They want their land back, and they are winning. But if Putler just offered to negotiate in good faith, I think that Europe (who is desperate to get Russian gas) would pressure Ukraine to negotiate. But instead, Putler just seems to want this to go on and on. There will be some setbacks for Ukraine. But why is Russia continually shooting itself in the foot?