How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

Barbos said that this is an old story from last year. However, that was just one scientist, who subsequently died in custody.

I wonder if said scientist died of poisoning or fell out of a window?

Perhaps he fell out of a Novichok painted window, onto an umbrella tipped with Polonium. Terrible accident, could happen to anyone.

 

[Copernicus]

Barbos said that this is an old story from last year. However, that was just one scientist, who subsequently died in custody.

I wonder if said scientist died of poisoning or fell out of a window?

Perhaps he fell out of a Novichok painted window, onto an umbrella tipped with Polonium. Terrible accident, could happen to anyone.

No, he had stage IV pancreatic cancer and was refused treatment after incarceration. However, I may have gotten wrong that he was working on the Kinzhal program. He was mentioned in a news article regarding the Kinzhal researchers, but I now see that he was a laser specialist. I don't really know what barbos was referring to when he mentioned that this was old news, but, then again, a lot of us are confused by his undocumented and unsupported references.

See:

‘They didn’t even let our family say goodbye’​

 

[SLD]

You seriously insist on that theory that russians are so retarded that they were trying to fight and occupy Kiev?

An observation is not a "theory".

It happened.

We all saw it.

The Russians were exactly so retarded. Your incredulity changes nothing about this fact.

It absolutely 100% did not happen.
Russian side DID NOT plan on actually fighting their way into Kiev.
Actual America generals agree with me.

No shit, Sherlock. They had no fucking plan other than March to Kiev and decorate themselves with medals. That’s why they got their asses kicked. Your military has no planning capabilities. They obviously don’t understand operational planning. They still don’t which is why they still haven’t been able to take Bakhmut after 9 months of fighting. Do you really expect to win with such a shitty army?

or was it really all part of the plan to take Kherson and then withdraw? To fail even to take Kharkiv, 25 miles from your border? And of course withdraw from Izyum? Maybe the only planning your fucked army is capable of doing is a retreat.

BTW, what’s the new flagship of the Black Sea Fleet? And where is it? Hiding near Sochi?

 

[Jayjay]

Source?

You seriously insist on that theory that russians are so retarded that they were trying to fight and occupy Kiev?

Yes, they are that retarded. They took Crimea in 2013 successfully with minimal resistance, and thought it would be easy to repeat. Also in 2022 in some cities like Kherson there was really not much fighting due to the element of surprise.

Dude, you do realize that Zelensky&Co were planning to capitulate even before Russians entered Ukraine? (and russians knew that)
Yes, we now know that for sure.
But then Americans and British told him officially "we will not support you if you surrender"
Unofficially, they told him: We will give you the full support, money, weapons, you can do whatever you want, full immunity from anything, and we will save you in case russians overrun you, but you have to fight russians.

Basically they bought that bastard.
Yes, russians miscalculated there, they underestimated western "elite" hatred for Russia.
Zele sold his country for a mansion in Miami and a couple of hundreds of millions of US dollars.

You've really swallowed the Russian propaganda yarn whole! There's so much there to unpack in that utterly nonsensical narrative:

Dude, you do realize that Zelensky&Co were planning to capitulate even before Russians entered Ukraine? (and russians knew that)

What a bizarre idea. Of course Zelensky wasn't going to "capitulate" and hand over the keys to the country to Putin without a fight. This is complete bollocks. Not Zelensky, or any other president that wasn't already in the pocket of Russians (like Lukashenko in Belarus) would "capitulate" when invaded, if they have any means to fight back at all.

Yes, Ukraine might have capitulated after a successful quick capture of Kyiv, which was Putin's original plan, but it got fucked up because of Russian bumbling and underestimating Ukrainian will and ability to fight back. But it would be complete idiocy to claim that Ukraine was ready to surrender before the invasion, like the Baltic countries on the eve of WW2.

Yes, we now know that for sure.

No, "we" don't know such things. There have been several iinterviews with Zelensky and his government recounting the events of the first few days of the war, as well as the months leading up to it, and it's obvious that Ukraine didn't think Russia would invade. And there certainly hasn't been any indication that Ukraine was going to capitulate.

But then Americans and British told him officially "we will not support you if you surrender"

What the fuck does this even mean? If Zelensky had surrendered Ukraine to Putin, there would have been nobody to support. Zelensky and his buddies would be either dead or in exile. Ukraine as a country would have been dissected with the remaining western parts run by some Kremlin puppet.

Unofficially, they told him: We will give you the full support, money, weapons, you can do whatever you want, full immunity from anything, and we will save you in case russians overrun you, but you have to fight russians.

And your source of this is... youtube comments section again?

It's a fact that US offered to get Zelensky out of the country, but he refused. The exact line "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition" may not have been spoken verbatim, but it pretty much captures the idea of what happened. If Zelensky had wanted out, he would have been safe and sound in most US or EU countries. And had he kept his head down and not criticized Russia, he'd be safe from assassination attempts as well. If Zelensky was the kind of opportunistic bastard that your propaganda makes him out to be, he'd have been in his villa in Italy or Florida in a heartbeat.

What would Zelensky need "full immunity" from anyway? He's not being wanted for any crimes. Only risk to his freedom would have been from Russian invaders wanting to make an example out of him, not from the west.

Basically they bought that bastard.

Bought with what? Remember that in february 2022 nobody really knew how incompetent the Russian army really was. The prospect that the country would be overrun in a few weeks or months at most was very realistic. And he already had those alleged mansions and offshore accounts in the west that he could live the rest of his life in comfort.

If Zelensky wanted money and was ready to sell his country, he would have been better off dealing with Russia.

Yes, russians miscalculated there, they underestimated western "elite" hatred for Russia.

There was never any such hatred, it's just the bullshit victim narrative that Russian propaganda is feeding to its own people.

The opposite is true: all western countries wanted to do business with Russia, and they had practically already willing to overlook Russian imperialist ambitions in Georgia, Moldova, Crimea and Donbas. Before the war, all major EU leaders went to Moscow (or called Putin by phone) one by one, pleading Putin not to invade. Everyone wanted to live peacefully with Russia, and quite a few countries thought it was possible.

Even after the illegal invasion, even after massacres in Bucha and elsewhere, and even now, Russia could still end the war and most countries would be more than happy to resume relations. Maybe not at the same level as before, because you can only lose trust once, but nobody in the west wants this expensive war. But most sensible people realize that capitulating to Russia would not end the war, only prolong it. This has nothing to do with some imaginary "hatred for Russia", and everything to do with Russian fascist imperialists waging unprovoked wars of aggression on their neighbors.

If Hitler had been stopped at Czechoslovakia or Poland, millions of lives could have been saved. Europe has learned it lesson, and isn't going to make the same mistake with Putin, the bastard child of Hitler and Stalin.

Zele sold his country for a mansion in Miami and a couple of hundreds of millions of US dollars.

He had his mansions before the war, duh.

Russian propaganda that you are being fed is all about projection and turning reality upside down: When Russia invades its neighbor, its propagandists claim that Russia was attacked. When Russians rape, kill, and loot Ukrainians, the propagandists are saying that Ukraine is committing genocide against Russians. When Russia does exactly what Hitler did in 1939-1940, uses the same fascist and racist rhetoric as nazis, and is even openly using neo-nazis as its footsoldiers, ... Russian propaganda pretends that it's "denazifying" Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

It was a Russian military disaster the whole world witnessed.

It was interpreted that way by corrupt western media.
In reality it was not as bad as your corrupt media pictured. In any case, I explained why and what actually happened.
Russian forces did not expect real resistance and were for the most part highly restricted in their freedom to engage the "enemy"

We know from Bucha exactly how Russia "engaged the enemy". And later from Kherson and Kharkiv it was confirmed that the same kind of filtration measures and summary executions were the norm, not an outlier.

It's true that Russia didn't expect resistance and that's why they half-assed the beginning of the SMO, but that doesn't mean they were restricted in any way. The military units responsible for Bucha were given medals. Terrorizing and murdering civilians was not only happening as collateral damage, it was actively encouraged.

Well, they made mistake which was then rectified and now ukrainian forces are being systematically exterminated.

I wouldn't call it systematic. The infighting between Wagner and MoD is an example of the clusterfuck that the Russian military still is. The casualties it causes is more due to the fact that Russia is five times the size of Ukraine. A drunken elephant can do a lot more damage than a sober mouse.

 

[Patooka]

Well, they made mistake which was then rectified and now ukrainian forces are being systematically exterminated.

Wait a minute, five months ago you said Ukrainian forces have been completely wiped out and Russia is fighting NATO now. Are you saying you were completely full of shit then? It looks like you are ignoring the 60th Rule of Acquisition there son.

 

[Jayjay]

You seriously insist on that theory that russians are so retarded that they were trying to fight and occupy Kiev?

An observation is not a "theory".

It happened.

We all saw it.

The Russians were exactly so retarded. Your incredulity changes nothing about this fact.

It absolutely 100% did not happen.
Russian side DID NOT plan on actually fighting their way into Kiev.
Actual America generals agree with me.

Funny how you can't seem to be able to name those "actual" generals. Or any of your other sources.

Yes, Russia grossly underestimated Ukrainian resistance, and overestimated their own abilities. But that wasn't your argument: you claimed that Russia never tried to "fight and occupy Kiev". Yes they did. They just failed miserably.

EDIT: A prematurely posted victory editorial in RIA-Novosti shows that Russia absolutely intended to occupy Kyiv in a few days.

Ukraine crisis: Russian news agency deletes victory editorial

Piece which prematurely claimed "Ukraine has returned to Russia" is still visible to internet users.

www.bbc.com

 

[TV and credit cards]

A proud moment in Russian history. On this day in 2023:



What an event to compare it to. Poorly trained Russians within Bakhmut now getting encircled by Ukrainian troops. Yeah. This is exactly how your grandfathers felt.


Victory in Bakhmut 100,000 Russian lives later.

“What they [Ukrainians] needed to do was to, one, weaken the Russians as much as possible before they do that counteroffensive, and secondly, buy time to get that force ready,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland.

“They calculated – I believe it was the right choice – that in fighting for Bakhmut, they could do both,” he told US media outlet NPR in an interview aired Saturday.

We'll see if this statement is correct.

 

[Jayjay]

Meanwhile, Putin is probably listening to his military give its version of how effective the Kinzhal is—and deciding who to blame.

Hmm. If they’re smart, Putin is probably trying to figure out who to promote and congratulate.

Much like the company that was responsible for Bucha were given medals for their courage... and sent straight back to the frontlines to get slaughtered.

 

[Jayjay]

Victory in Bakhmut 100,000 Russian lives later.

“What they [Ukrainians] needed to do was to, one, weaken the Russians as much as possible before they do that counteroffensive, and secondly, buy time to get that force ready,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland.

“They calculated – I believe it was the right choice – that in fighting for Bakhmut, they could do both,” he told US media outlet NPR in an interview aired Saturday.

We'll see if this statement is correct.

I think Ukraine lost a lot of good men by holding on to Bakhmut. But what's done is done and there's no way to know whether some other strategy would have been more appropriate. Now Ukraine really needs to stop the bleeding, stabilize the frontline.

 

[SLD]

It appears Wagner’s strategy in Bakhmut is to declare victory and then get out. Not the dumbest idea I’ve heard.

 

[SLD]

Speaking of "Putin studies" and your Media.
Watching CNN (with time delay from yesterday). It's unbelievable how deluded and out of touch with reality your CIA experts and CNN personalities are.
They claim Ukraine will put up a fight (nope, not gonna happen and is not happening)

Well this quote from last year sure has aged well, right Barbos?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Speaking of "Putin studies" and your Media.
Watching CNN (with time delay from yesterday). It's unbelievable how deluded and out of touch with reality your CIA experts and CNN personalities are.
They claim Ukraine will put up a fight (nope, not gonna happen and is not happening)

Well this quote from last year sure has aged well, right Barbos?

Yea, it's shocking how often Barbos was 100% incorrect. All he has to do is read this very thread from his first post, December 5, 2021; post #5. 100% wrong. I'm often wrong and make mistakes every day. But I try to never be in denial. Barbos is the king of being in denial.

 

[bilby]

Speaking of "Putin studies" and your Media.
Watching CNN (with time delay from yesterday). It's unbelievable how deluded and out of touch with reality your CIA experts and CNN personalities are.
They claim Ukraine will put up a fight (nope, not gonna happen and is not happening)

Well this quote from last year sure has aged well, right Barbos?

Yea, it's shocking how often Barbos was 100% incorrect. All he has to do is read this very thread from his first post, December 5, 2021; post #5. 100% wrong. I'm often wrong and make mistakes every day. But I try to never be in denial. Barbos is the king pharaoh of being in denial.

FTFY.

 

[Elixir]

I see what you did there.

 

[Tigers!]

BTW, what’s the new flagship of the Black Sea Fleet? And where is it? Hiding near Sochi?

It called the Titanic and is safe from prying eyes.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The closest the world has seen to fast and evasive is the SR-71

Well, not really. The definition of "fast and evasive" is contextual, so the world has seen many other such aircraft.

The Mosquito B mkIV was certainly a candidate in WWII.

Like the Blackbird, it was mostly operating at an altitude the enemy struggled to reach.

It's not a new phenomenon.

I'm measuring "evasive" as in having a meaningful ability to cause a missile to miss under less than ideal conditions. (Most fighter and fighter/attack planes can defeat a missile by heading straight towards it and doing a hard turn at just the right moment--this is based on the plane being much slower than the missile and thus have a tighter turning radius. Note, though, that successfully beating a missile this way leaves you flying sideways to a missile following reasonably close behind--you can't maneuver away from the second one.)

Likewise, I'm defining fast in the context of missiles. The SR-71 was capable of outrunning most missiles on it's tail, for most planes a missile up the ass is a bad situation.

By WWII standards the Mosquito was in many cases able to run from danger.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

No, he had stage IV pancreatic cancer and was refused treatment after incarceration. However, I may have gotten wrong that he was working on the Kinzhal program. He was mentioned in a news article regarding the Kinzhal researchers, but I now see that he was a laser specialist. I don't really know what barbos was referring to when he mentioned that this was old news, but, then again, a lot of us are confused by his undocumented and unsupported references.

See:

‘They didn’t even let our family say goodbye’​

There's not really much to do about stage IV pancreatic cancer anyway.

 

[Patooka]

Looking forward to barbos' twisted take on this;

Belgorod raid: Insurgents defeated after rare cross-border incursion - Russia

Russia claims to have defeated insurgents who crossed the border from Ukraine to launch attacks near Belgorod.

www.bbc.com

Turns out Russia isn't the "Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer, Ein Putin", barbos claims it is.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Looking forward to barbos' twisted take on this;

Belgorod raid: Insurgents defeated after rare cross-border incursion - Russia

Russia claims to have defeated insurgents who crossed the border from Ukraine to launch attacks near Belgorod.

www.bbc.com

Turns out Russia isn't the "Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer, Ein Putin", barbos claims it is.

The Ukrainian Nazis train children to execute these raids. This is why Russia is morally bound remove as many Ukrainian children as they can to be raised properly by loving Russian families.