Russia decides to arrest Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin

[Cheerful Charlie]

More worries. Russia is divided ino 93 oblasts. Putin's power seat is in the Moscow and St. Petersburg areas. It is the poorer and more distant areas where young men are mobilized, poorly trained, poorly armed, and sent to Ukraine to die. This is leading to these distant oblasts to be very unhappy with Putin. There are reports of arson attacks on government buildings and mobilization offices. Deep hostility to Putin's regime, and helping hide young men from authorities.

 

[SLD]

So... Prigozhin's bluff worked and he got what he wanted? Shoigu and Gerasimov are out, FSB investigation against Prigozhin dropped? So basically, Putin had to backtrack from the threats he made just 12 hours ago.

And it's not over. If Wagner gets a foothold in the MoD, they'll not let go, and will try to increase their influence bit by bit. Of course the siloviki are not going to allow this. It's not like Putin and Prigozhin can just go back to best pals after an armed insurgency. I think Prigozhin is about to find out the hard way that Putin never forgets.

For some reason I'm reminded of that scene at the end of Hunt For Red October, where the sub is headed directly towards the Konavalov with a torpedo on it's tail and Scott Glenn's character says "the hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch."

Question here is...who flinched?

Prig can afford to flinch. He really doesn’t have anything to lose. It’s Putin who flinched at least somewhat. But he can’t do that and retain the loyalty of his military brass. If he elevates Prig, they will likely revolt. He's now demonstrated that he’ll back down. The generals at least have the loyalty of the army brass and bureaucrats, and they will kill Prig given half the chance. And now that Putin has demonstrated weakness instead of decisively crushing a challenge to his power, they may realize it’s time to act.

The next few weeks will tell for sure.

 

[TomC]

And now that Putin has demonstrated weakness instead of decisively crushing a challenge to his power, they may realize it’s time to act.

Really, this.

Now that it's obviously not a feint to distract the Ukrainian defense,
Putin did lose a big chunk of his strongman mystique. Prigozhin demonstrated that Putin isn't entirely in control of Russian might. That's a problem for him and his cronies.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Prigozhin is taking a big gamble. It is 600 miles to Moscow. He has 25,000 troops. It is obvious he cannot fight the entire Russian military forces arrayed against him. Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

What forces arrayed against him? Anything useful was already sent to Ukraine. He's probably only facing internal security elements and it's unlikely they have anything that can deal with armor.

 

[Ford]

So... Prigozhin's bluff worked and he got what he wanted? Shoigu and Gerasimov are out, FSB investigation against Prigozhin dropped? So basically, Putin had to backtrack from the threats he made just 12 hours ago.

And it's not over. If Wagner gets a foothold in the MoD, they'll not let go, and will try to increase their influence bit by bit. Of course the siloviki are not going to allow this. It's not like Putin and Prigozhin can just go back to best pals after an armed insurgency. I think Prigozhin is about to find out the hard way that Putin never forgets.

For some reason I'm reminded of that scene at the end of Hunt For Red October, where the sub is headed directly towards the Konavalov with a torpedo on it's tail and Scott Glenn's character says "the hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch."

Question here is...who flinched?

Prig can afford to flinch. He really doesn’t have anything to lose. It’s Putin who flinched at least somewhat. But he can’t do that and retain the loyalty of his military brass. If he elevates Prig, they will likely revolt. He's now demonstrated that he’ll back down. The generals at least have the loyalty of the army brass and bureaucrats, and they will kill Prig given half the chance. And now that Putin has demonstrated weakness instead of decisively crushing a challenge to his power, they may realize it’s time to act.

The next few weeks will tell for sure.

Yeah, it's gonna be weird.

Putin filled his top military leadership based on loyalty rather than competence, and the unmitigated cluster fuck that is the Ukraine invasion exposed that. It took a damned near coup attempt to wake him up to the fact that this wasn't working. So let's say he hands the conduct of the war over to Prigozhin. He still has an army filled with ill-equipped dejected conscripts led by a ruthless militia leader. If he gives Wagner all the toys and takes the gloves off, it might halt Ukraine's counter-offensive, but by the time Wagner reorganizes the dejected conscripts into a more cohesive fighting force the F-16s will be flying overhead and all the other NATO weapons will be in play.

 

[Elixir]

Putin filled his top military leadership based on loyalty rather than competence

The good news being that he can capriciously replace them without degrading the competence of the effected position.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Prigozhin is taking a big gamble. It is 600 miles to Moscow. He has 25,000 troops. It is obvious he cannot fight the entire Russian military forces arrayed against him. Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

What forces arrayed against him? Anything useful was already sent to Ukraine. He's probably only facing internal security elements and it's unlikely they have anything that can deal with armor.

It has long been Russia's leaders policy to keep strong military forces near Moscow. I suspect the Wagnerites would be destroyed if it came to pitched battles. Artillery and air forces would end this quickly. Prigozhin gambled the military would abandon Putin en masse. That does not seem to have happened.

 

[Jayjay]

Apparently part of the deal is that Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus. That actually explains the situation a bit more. Prigozhin gets to keep his head, and he sold out Wagner group for it. And if he starts to make trouble again, Belarus is practically part of Russia so he can still be dragged out to the gallows later.

For Ukraine, this was a nice diversion, but doesn't ultimately change much as far as the war goes. Wagner was almost finished anyway, and those who are left will be offered contracts with the MoD. The whoel insurgency lasted less than 24 hours and didn't have time to impact logistics. Maybe the most important factor is that Wagnerites who feel betrayed by the deal might pull some dissenters with them, and in a couple of months there are other smaller mutinies.

 

[Ford]

Apparently part of the deal is that Prigozhin is exiled to Belarus. That actually explains the situation a bit more. Prigozhin gets to keep his head, and he sold out Wagner group for it. And if he starts to make trouble again, Belarus is practically part of Russia so he can still be dragged out to the gallows later.

And yet...

While this was all over in short order, there's also the fact that Wagner was able to march within a few dozen kilometers of Moscow without much resistance. Putin decided that a nice weekend getaway to St. Pete was in order.

Was this Tsar Ivan abdicating to a small town a few dozen kilometers away and waiting for the Boyars to come - hat in hand - to beg him to return to Moscow? Not quite.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So, I'd say no one won, and all involved lost something in this. An incredibly bizarre set of events.

 

[ZiprHead]

So, I'd say no one won, and all involved lost something in this. An incredibly bizarre set of events.

I would say Ukraine won this round. The mercenaries will probably go home. They will not be paid what they are used to being paid.

 

[TomC]

So, I'd say no one won, and all involved lost something in this. An incredibly bizarre set of events.

Not Ukraine.
That's who I'm cheering for.
Tom

 

[SLD]

Prigozhin is taking a big gamble. It is 600 miles to Moscow. He has 25,000 troops. It is obvious he cannot fight the entire Russian military forces arrayed against him. Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

What forces arrayed against him? Anything useful was already sent to Ukraine. He's probably only facing internal security elements and it's unlikely they have anything that can deal with armor.

No. This is the key problem that Russia has. Everyone has been talking about its vaunted military and how big it is. But a huge chunk of it is necessary for internal security. Another huge chunk is needed for security on the battlefield, keeping the frontline troops in place. They probably have plenty of troops to deal with internal threats. Probably why Prig stopped and struck a deal.

But that just demonstrates why they can’t handle Ukraine.

I suspect that the real reason he stopped is that there was no mass uprising against the regime. He could have succeeded had that happened. If enough people had revolted, the brass might have had enough of Putin and ended this fiasco. Although they would probably not have allowed Prig to take over either. Maybe another Russian revolution in favor of democracy?

That’s what I was really hoping for. Alas, it was not to be.

 

[TomC]

That’s what I was really hoping for. Alas, it was not to be.

It's not over yet.
A week ago, would you have predicted the current situation?
Tom

 

[Elixir]

Maybe another Russian revolution in favor of democracy?

That’s what I was really hoping for. Alas, it was not to be.

I think we all held out a little hope for that. I did.
In the screenplay of the romcom, the revolution turns Russia into a bastion of democracy, the troubled romance of Pootey and Trump is forced to consummate at Pootey's Black Sea palace, where they are both exiled for life. Meanwhile Russia joins NATO and NATO goes after China, for ... something - being too smart, or messing with Taiwan.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The conscripts are likely unaware what's going on, but I bet a few of those generals do. Prigozhin says he's not leading a coup, but just wants to replace the incompetent military leadership (aforementioned generals included), but Putin's choices to lead the military are more about loyalty than competence. That kinda rules out Priozhin taking charge while Vlad is still in power.

A bit of an Essex Rebellion.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

“It’s all going according to plan” — Barbos

What a shit plan.

To have it appear as being such a shit plan is obviously all part of the plan.

 

[TV and credit cards]

HAVE YOU SEEN ME?

 

[Ford]

Prigozhin is taking a big gamble. It is 600 miles to Moscow. He has 25,000 troops. It is obvious he cannot fight the entire Russian military forces arrayed against him. Prigozhin is banking on the military force refusing to fight and standing aside as Prigozhin marches North. Or even elements of the military joining him.

What forces arrayed against him? Anything useful was already sent to Ukraine. He's probably only facing internal security elements and it's unlikely they have anything that can deal with armor.

No. This is the key problem that Russia has. Everyone has been talking about its vaunted military and how big it is. But a huge chunk of it is necessary for internal security. Another huge chunk is needed for security on the battlefield, keeping the frontline troops in place. They probably have plenty of troops to deal with internal threats. Probably why Prig stopped and struck a deal.

If we've learned nothing else from Ukraine, it is that Russia's vaunted military is a lot weaker than anyone thought. If their internal security forces are anything like what they sent to the front lines, Russia had better hope nobody else tries to march to Moscow any time soon. Although Prigozhin is out of the picture (and will have to be watching his back for the rest of his life), Putin showed another weakness this weekend. His military is shit, he breaks and runs unlike Zelenskyy, and he had to sack his most trusted/loyal generals.

On top of that, Ukraine's long-awaited counter offensive just got a lot easier. Russia hadn't lost the war, but they certainly weren't winning. The pendulum is not swinging in their favor.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

HAVE YOU SEEN ME?
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Been pondering about that as well. Granted any agreement would likely require him keeping his mouth shut, but it is interesting his lack of appearance or communication.