How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[TV and credit cards]

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Though there’s no way for me to form a truly educated picture of the Russian populace, it’s hard to avoid thinking that they are largely aware of all the situation they’re in, the level of repression, the consequences of dissent etc., and they embrace it by and large.

As I've pointed out before, Barbos reminds me of my conservative Republican Dad. Dad was a staunch supporter of Bush II and the Invasion of Iraq. Left home at 18 to defend America from the Japanese. Came back to become a solid husband and father. And Reagan Republican. He was a good man.

He also supported his government when they went to liberate Iraq. Lock, stock, and barrel, he supported the liberation of Iraq from Islamic Muslims. Totally believed that it would end in a month or two because the Iraqis would welcome their liberators with flowers and parades.

He's been gone for many years now. I'm not sure he ever realized what the U.S. really did.
Tom

There was a comment in the article referencing the older generation of Russians as viewing Putin as god-like or sent by god. Something to that effect. I've always assumed barbos is quite old based on nothing other than the nutty comments he spews.

 

[Harry Bosch]

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Though there’s no way for me to form a truly educated picture of the Russian populace, it’s hard to avoid thinking that they are largely aware of all the situation they’re in, the level of repression, the consequences of dissent etc., and they embrace it by and large.

As I've pointed out before, Barbos reminds me of my conservative Republican Dad. Dad was a staunch supporter of Bush II and the Invasion of Iraq. Left home at 18 to defend America from the Japanese. Came back to become a solid husband and father. And Reagan Republican. He was a good man.

He also supported his government when they went to liberate Iraq. Lock, stock, and barrel, he supported the liberation of Iraq from Islamic Muslims. Totally believed that it would end in a month or two because the Iraqis would welcome their liberators with flowers and parades.

He's been gone for many years now. I'm not sure he ever realized what the U.S. really did.
Tom

There was a comment in the article referencing the older generation of Russians as viewing Putin as god-like or sent by god. Something to that effect. I've always assumed barbos is quite old based on nothing other than the nutty comments he spews.

I would also assume that he is old because he is so pro-war. I assume that anyone within possible draft age is probably not as pro-war in Russia.

 

[ZiprHead]

Elon Musk ‘stopped Ukraine military using Starlink for military operation’

Musk denied Ukrainian miliatry access to turn on Starlink in Crimea, report says

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Elixir]

Anyone of “possible draft age … in Russia” means what? Under 80? Do they even have people that old?

 

[barbos]

But you're both kinda right

Nope, I am right and he is wrong.

 

[barbos]

I would also assume that he is old because he is so pro-war. I assume that anyone within possible draft age is probably not as pro-war in Russia.

Kyiv Post is claiming Ukrainian forces have broken through a first line of defense "in some areas".

Russian forces are not rotated off the front line. There are no reserves to give these guys a break. Imagine that for months on end.
Russia has a long defensive line to hold and must be ready across the entire line. Ukraine need only punch a hole or two. They can keep probing the defense looking for weak spots.

I think this is bullshit.

Russia has had over a year to prepare the defenses, and they have. There's no "punching through" anywhere, because after the first defensive line, there is going to be another one, and then another one, all the way to Crimea, which are at least as tough as the first one. Russia is prepared to fight for every mile. As for rotation, it's probably true for some places, but Russia can make up for it with numbers.

I expect Ukraine to be able hold the line and make local progress, but not much faster than this.

Ukro-nazis have not even broken through security zone. In other words, They have not reached even the first line of defence.
But they are trying.

 

[barbos]

I would also assume that he is old because he is so pro-war. I assume that anyone within possible draft age is probably not as pro-war in Russia.

Anyone above 40, though technically can be subject to mobilization, in practice is too old to run around with kalashnikov.
I am not pro war. I am against it, Russia must win in Ukraine the war YOU started, otherwise I am certainly getting drafted.

 

[barbos]

Elon Musk ‘stopped Ukraine military using Starlink for military operation’

Musk denied Ukrainian miliatry access to turn on Starlink in Crimea, report says

www.independent.co.uk

These are just words. We will see how it's going in reality.

 

[barbos]

Originally, i just googled, GDP Russia etc. Russia is not really economically a great power. Biggest economy in Europe as per Barbos? Russia ranks behind Germany, France and the UK. A silly claim from Barbos easily debunk with a bit of googling.

Do you know how much I pay for one 600 mbit internet?
No serious economist uses nominal GDP for anything. Only idiots who start war with Russia use nominal GDP.

 

[barbos]

Some weapons are game changers, like Javelins, Himars, or Storm Shadows, others end up in the scrap heap like Switchblades or GLSDB (which I'm not sure has even made it to the battle zone yet).

No, none of these wunderwaffe changed anything for Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

But GDP isn't the only relevant measure. In Russia's case, it also includes all the military production

In South Korea case it is also included, same with Finland and the rest of the world.
Also I remember number of years ago, GB and some other countries started including prostitution and other black market activities.
Russia has larger black market than you, but it's not included, and it's not even illegal stuff, it's perfectly legal but people just don't register their businesses. Brits did it because they ran out of growth they could show, so they came up with that.

 

[barbos]

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Kyiv feel like it needs to make progress to keep the weapons flowing.

Not Ukraine, Biden, Nuland and other scum.
Piece of shit Sullivan organized a "peace" conference in Saudi Arabia (without Russia of course) and he timed it toward success of this counteroffensive, except there is none And countries invited are saying "No Russia? Fuck you !"

China seems to disagree. And the conspiracy theory that Sullivan somehow organized this meeting is ridiculous. Saudis are very rapidly switching from US orbit to China, and this is more likely happening from either their own or the Chinese initiative than USA's.

LOL, no. Saudi/Chinese did not organize that nonsense. US did. And chances are, the thought process was exactly as I described.

 

[Jayjay]

But you're both kinda right

Nope, I am right and he is wrong.

No, you're not. Russia's GDP (PPP) was $5.3 trillion in 2022 (which is what Christoforou was probably referring to), but according to the same listing you got South Korea wrong. Instead the $2.9 trillion seems to come from IMF 2023 estimate. But according to the IMF estimate, Russia is still behind Germany.

Cheerful Charlie on the other hand used nominal figures. Probably UN data from 2021, with a small typo. But at least his comparison is from the same listing, apples to apples.

The broader issue is, which measure makes more sense to compare sizes of economy? I'd say the nominal. Because it doesn't matter squat that bread and turnipses are cheaper in Russia, when the GDP growth comes from building tanks and artillery shells. And any economic data coming out of Russia since 2022 is probably not that reliable due to the war.

 

[Copernicus]

I am not pro war. I am against it, Russia must win in Ukraine the war YOU started, otherwise I am certainly getting drafted.

Against the war unless his side loses. Meanwhile: <-- barbos

Got it!

 

[barbos]

What Ukraine really needs is to conserve its strength, make sure the casualty rates are in its favor, and become more and more efficient at killing Russians. Training of troops and officers is the key in this long-term strategy, as well as finding better ways of doing counter-battery artillery and use drones.

Whole lot of wishful thinking. Ukraine is losing, they never had a chance.
You have been buying your own propaganda about how Russia is weak and Ukraine is motivated and capable.

 

[barbos]

No, you're not. Russia's GDP (PPP) was $5.3 trillion in 2022 (which is what Christoforou was probably referring to), but according to the same listing you got South Korea wrong. Instead the $2.9 trillion seems to come from IMF 2023 estimate. But according to the IMF estimate, Russia is still behind Germany.

Yes, I am right. Russia is slightly ahead of Germany NOW. That's why it IS a news.
Russia surpassed Germany, that IS the news.

 

[Jayjay]

Some weapons are game changers, like Javelins, Himars, or Storm Shadows, others end up in the scrap heap like Switchblades or GLSDB (which I'm not sure has even made it to the battle zone yet).

No, none of these wunderwaffe changed anything for Ukraine.

Yes, they have. The most obvious example is Himars which got you kicked out of Kherson. I have no doubt Russia would still be there if it wasn't for Ukraine being able to hit the bridges with pinpoint accuracy.

Javelins were instrumental in fighting off the initial invasion near Kyiv, Storm Shadows are hitting bridges and ammuniton depots in Crimea right now. All of these weapons have a proven track record, and if they were garbage, we wouldn't hear much about them.

 

[barbos]

Yes, they have. The most obvious example is Himars which got you kicked out of Kherson.

Nope, Russia would have left it regardless. They had to, there was no point in holding it. Once they realized that they did not have enough troops to blitzkrieg further they left it. Himars is pretty ineffective now. It's being shoot down and jammed.

 

[Jayjay]

Piece of shit Sullivan organized a "peace" conference in Saudi Arabia (without Russia of course) and he timed it toward success of this counteroffensive, except there is none And countries invited are saying "No Russia? Fuck you !"

China seems to disagree. And the conspiracy theory that Sullivan somehow organized this meeting is ridiculous. Saudis are very rapidly switching from US orbit to China, and this is more likely happening from either their own or the Chinese initiative than USA's.

LOL, no. Saudi/Chinese did not organize that nonsense. US did. And chances are, the thought process was exactly as I described.

Regardless of who came up with the idea, it was still successful because China decided to snub Russia by attending.

 

[barbos]

Javelins were instrumental in fighting off the initial invasion near Kyiv,

Nope, they were not instrumental.

Storm Shadows are hitting bridges and ammuniton depots in Crimea right now.

occasionally, most of them are shot down, I looked at the damage from the last "success" and must say, that's a waste of western money.
I mean few guys with showels and some concrete will fix it in one day.
Ukraine has nothing to show for their counter-offensive, so they do this shit which is pointless. They have no chance.