How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Also among ex-Soviet republics,

Armenians throng center of the capital to demand the prime minister's resignation | AP News
and
Protests shut streets in Armenia's capital, roads in other parts to demand the prime minister resign | AP News

Because of Armenia and Azerbaijan move closer to normalizing ties as the first border marker goes up | AP News

Armenia and Azerbaijan on Tuesday came a step closer toward normalizing relations after a bitter conflict over territory, as experts in both countries worked to demarcate their boundaries and the first border marker was placed.

The two nations are working toward a peace treaty after Azerbaijan regained full control of the Karabakh province that had been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces since the 1990s. A six-week war in 2020 resulted in Azerbaijan retaking large parts of the breakaway region, and in September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a lighting blitz that forced Karabakh’s Armenian authorities to capitulate in negotiations mediated by Russian forces.

Several days ago, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached an agreement over a stretch of border that would cut though four Armenian villages in the Tavush province, meaning that Armenia would cede some territory to Azerbaijan.

Some 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Nagorno-Karabakh / Artsakh, going to Armenia.

Earlier,
Pashinian Says Armenia Freezes Membership In Russian-Led Security Alliance

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has said his country has frozen its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as Yerevan continues to distance itself from Moscow amid a souring of bilateral relations.

 

[aupmanyav]

Do you really think that Russia would honor any cease fire? You really think that Russia would be satisfied by only the land that they currently occupy in Ukraine? Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe. The world's best chance to stop Russian imperialism is in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are willing to fight (they have no choice really). I'm sure that Ukraine and Russia have been unofficially talking for many months about a peace agreement. But Russia does not really want peace. Just ask Barbos.

I do not know Putin's mind, other than the fact that Ukraine sided with West and NATO. That rankled him.

To what degree do you think China will support Russia? The more China supports Russia the more economic pressure will be put on it by Western nations and the more foreign companies will be reluctant to invest further in China. To a certain degree this is happening now, many companies are skittish about further investments in China. Unless Xi isn't looking at this through an economic lens. But its been my observation that China's dealing with other countries has been largely transactional. I don't see where China openly and militarily supporting Russia taking any part of Ukraine is in its interest.
Right now Chinese companies are taking advantage and getting away with selling dual purpose products to Russia. Most major Chinese banks will not process Russian transactions for fear of sanctions from the West.

I do not know Xi's mind as well. But his intent about Taiwan and his support to North Korea means that he is a dangerous guy. Like a spider, he is spreading his net everywhere.

 

[aupmanyav]

But WADR, your government is one of the primary supporters of Putin and his war machine. You are funding death and destruction in Ukraine.

And being non aligned at a time like this is absurd. It was the failure of nation states to stand up to blatant international aggression that led to WWII and will lead to WWIII.

Well, we need petrol, and we get it from Russia at somewhat lesser price. US and other developed countries recognize this. I think even western countries are buying things from Russia.
Also, we did not interfere when western countries were attacking various countries in the world - Cuba, Vietnam, Egypt, Iraq, etc. We have limited resources and capabilities. Our priority is development of our poor and we have a long way to go for that. We did not ask Ukrainians to side with West and NATO. They did it themselves without caring for the sensibilities of Russia. We have been asking both parties to come to an agreement, while west is supplying more and more weapons to Ukraine. We don't support that too. We can't do more than that.
(Now this is my thinking. Indian government will do whatever is best for India. I have full faith in Modi and his government. Modi will be happy to help if he can)

 

[Elixir]

Well, we need petrol, and we get it from Russia at somewhat lesser price.

Less of an immediate price, you mean.
Shortsightedness is not unique to Indian policy.

 

[bilby]

Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe.

Puter wants the Soviet Union back. The whole shitty mess is driven by one man's pathetic nostalgia for the 1970s and '80s.

 

[pood]

Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe.

Puter wants the Soviet Union back. The whole shitty mess is driven by one man's pathetic nostalgia for the 1970s and '80s.

I think in his paranoid dementia he wants more than the old Soviet Union back. He wants the old pre-World War I Russian empire back. That included not just Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states, but also Finland and Poland.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe.

Puter wants the Soviet Union back. The whole shitty mess is driven by one man's pathetic nostalgia for the 1970s and '80s.

Yep. Barbos (and other Russians that I know) are super conflicted on this. He has admitted Putler goals many times. But then he sometimes will say that Russians only want Ukraine. Then other times, Russians would be content with the land that they've conquered as of today, then they'll stop.

 

[SLD]

But WADR, your government is one of the primary supporters of Putin and his war machine. You are funding death and destruction in Ukraine.

And being non aligned at a time like this is absurd. It was the failure of nation states to stand up to blatant international aggression that led to WWII and will lead to WWIII.

Well, we need petrol, and we get it from Russia at somewhat lesser price. US and other developed countries recognize this. I think even western countries are buying things from Russia.
Also, we did not interfere when western countries were attacking various countries in the world - Cuba, Vietnam, Egypt, Iraq, etc. We have limited resources and capabilities. Our priority is development of our poor and we have a long way to go for that. We did not ask Ukrainians to side with West and NATO. They did it themselves without caring for the sensibilities of Russia. We have been asking both parties to come to an agreement, while west is supplying more and more weapons to Ukraine. We don't support that too. We can't do more than that.
(Now this is my thinking. Indian government will do whatever is best for India. I have full faith in Modi and his government. Modi will be happy to help if he can)

I’m sorry but you were not explicitly funding any of these wars that the United States managed to get themselves into. We are not a single resource country relying on foreign trade to pay for our wars. You are not being neutral here. You are supporting putler and his war machine. You are one of the primary sources of revenue that is keeping Russia’s attack going. You have no claim to high minded neutrality here whatsoever. Every gallon of gas you buy goes to killing Ukrainians.

 

[bilby]

Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe.

Puter wants the Soviet Union back. The whole shitty mess is driven by one man's pathetic nostalgia for the 1970s and '80s.

I think in his paranoid dementia he wants more than the old Soviet Union back. He wants the old pre-World War I Russian empire back. That included not just Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states, but also Finland and Poland.

The Soviet Union he wants back is the one that completely dominated everything to the East of the Inner German Border, with the exception of West Berlin.

 

[pood]

Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe.

Puter wants the Soviet Union back. The whole shitty mess is driven by one man's pathetic nostalgia for the 1970s and '80s.

I think in his paranoid dementia he wants more than the old Soviet Union back. He wants the old pre-World War I Russian empire back. That included not just Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic states, but also Finland and Poland.

The Soviet Union he wants back is the one that completely dominated everything to the East of the Inner German Border, with the exception of West Berlin.

Yes, that’s probably correct. I was thinking of actual land that literally was part of the old Russian empire. Finland and Poland were never part of the Soviet Union. But Poland and the other Eastern bloc countries, while ostensibly independent, were under full sway of the Soviets.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

But WADR, your government is one of the primary supporters of Putin and his war machine. You are funding death and destruction in Ukraine.

And being non aligned at a time like this is absurd. It was the failure of nation states to stand up to blatant international aggression that led to WWII and will lead to WWIII.

Well, we need petrol, and we get it from Russia at somewhat lesser price. US and other developed countries recognize this. I think even western countries are buying things from Russia.
Also, we did not interfere when western countries were attacking various countries in the world - Cuba, Vietnam, Egypt, Iraq, etc. We have limited resources and capabilities. Our priority is development of our poor and we have a long way to go for that. We did not ask Ukrainians to side with West and NATO. They did it themselves without caring for the sensibilities of Russia. We have been asking both parties to come to an agreement, while west is supplying more and more weapons to Ukraine. We don't support that too. We can't do more than that.
(Now this is my thinking. Indian government will do whatever is best for India. I have full faith in Modi and his government. Modi will be happy to help if he can)

If you were being bombed and invaded I doubt you would be so unaligned and accommodating.

 

[ZiprHead]

Do you really think that Russia would honor any cease fire? You really think that Russia would be satisfied by only the land that they currently occupy in Ukraine? Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe. The world's best chance to stop Russian imperialism is in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are willing to fight (they have no choice really). I'm sure that Ukraine and Russia have been unofficially talking for many months about a peace agreement. But Russia does not really want peace. Just ask Barbos.

I do not know Putin's mind, other than the fact that Ukraine sided with West and NATO. That rankled him.

So... ? What Ukraine does is none of Russia's business.

To what degree do you think China will support Russia? The more China supports Russia the more economic pressure will be put on it by Western nations and the more foreign companies will be reluctant to invest further in China. To a certain degree this is happening now, many companies are skittish about further investments in China. Unless Xi isn't looking at this through an economic lens. But its been my observation that China's dealing with other countries has been largely transactional. I don't see where China openly and militarily supporting Russia taking any part of Ukraine is in its interest.
Right now Chinese companies are taking advantage and getting away with selling dual purpose products to Russia. Most major Chinese banks will not process Russian transactions for fear of sanctions from the West.

I do not know Xi's mind as well. But his intent about Taiwan and his support to North Korea means that he is a dangerous guy. Like a spider, he is spreading his net everywhere.

Not nearly as far as Russia.

 

[aupmanyav]

Less of an immediate price, you mean.
Shortsightedness is not unique to Indian policy.

We also get some military hardware from Russia, like S-400 missiles. Indian Airforce has 260 Sukhoi 30 MK1 as of now.

If you were being bombed and invaded I doubt you would be so unaligned and accommodating.

We try to keep away from such situations. If we are bombed, it will hurt the interests of some other countries too.

 

[aupmanyav]

Every gallon of gas you buy goes to killing Ukrainians.

EU countries Austria, Slovakia and Hungary buy gas from Gazprom.

So... ? What Ukraine does is none of Russia's business.

So... ? How is what Russia doing in Ukraine is the business of NATO countries? NATO has refused membership to Ukraine. Then why are they interfering?
Nobody has bathed in milk (Indian proverb).

 

[Elixir]

We also get some military hardware from Russia,

MIght want to re-think that.

why are they interfering?

The Ukranians are begging for what you call interference, and we call helping them defend democracy against tyranny AT THEIR DESPERATE REQUEST because they are being subjected to genocide.
See the difference?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You realize Russia would by far fare the worst in WWIII?

Was that what Hitler said before invading USSR?

You realize you have little of importance beyond Tomahawk range? An invasion would neither be needed nor desirable.

 

[barbos]

Ukrainian Regime started putting mines on their border with Romania and Hungary.

 

[barbos]

You realize Russia would by far fare the worst in WWIII?

Was that what Hitler said before invading USSR?

You realize you have little of importance beyond Tomahawk range? An invasion would neither be needed nor desirable.

Speak human language.

 

[barbos]

So... ? What Ukraine does is none of Russia's business.

What Yugoslavia does is none of your business. What Syria does is none of your business. What Cuba does is none of your business. What Russia does is none of your business. What Georgia does is none of your business. What Vietnam does none is of your business. Should I continue?

 

[barbos]

Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe.

Puter wants the Soviet Union back. The whole shitty mess is driven by one man's pathetic nostalgia for the 1970s and '80s.

Yep. Barbos (and other Russians that I know) are super conflicted on this. He has admitted Putler goals many times. But then he sometimes will say that Russians only want Ukraine. Then other times, Russians would be content with the land that they've conquered as of today, then they'll stop.

That's bullshit. Nobody wanted Ukraine even after Nazi revolt of 2014. People were saying "We have oil-gas and growing economy, what do we need this dead weight for?" Reintegration of these regions would have been difficult. Their coal in particular is not needed in Russia because it's more expensive. Plus ukro-nazis, Eastern Ukraine is majority russian but unlike Crimea they have noticeable number of ukro-nazis. So sentiment was let see and wait for Ukraine coming to their senses. They did not and sentiment now is we need to end this experiment and take whole Ukraine.

Having said that, what is wrong with having better verison of Soviet Union now?
How is that YOUR business that some of the former USSR republics want to have something back?