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Democrats trying to unseat each other III

"Indypendent"[sic] is a far left rag.

Latimerism #10: He is “confident” in the Biden Administration’s approach to the crisis in Gaza.
If anything, it is too critical of Israel.
Latimerism #9: Although he has received a record high $14.5 million in AIPAC support, Latimer wants to make sure voters know he’s not alone.
And Firemarshal Jamaal did not receive support from fauxgressive groups?
Latimerism #7: As county exec, Latimer placed the same mistress, retired New Rochelle judge Susan Kettner, on the county payroll with a $136,000 per year job.
Didn't the Ilk defend Willie Brown when he gave his mistress, one Kamala Harris, positions on state boards?
Latimerism #5: During his 2017 bid for county exec, Latimer got in an accident in New Rochelle. ... According to independent journalist Robert Cox, such an account contradicted “basic trigonometry.”
There is a British journalist named Robert Cox who is 90. I doubt they mean him.
Latimerism #2: Latimer asserted that Bowman’s “constituency is in Dearborn, Michigan,” the nation’s largest city with a majority Arab-American population.
Given JB's hostility toward Israel, how is that wrong?
 
This shows a lack of focus. What does "end to [so-called] genocide" have to do with the "mf Green New Deal"?

A Sunrise Movement campaigner talked about what it was like to campaign for Jamaal Bowman. The people she contacted agreed with many of his positions, but AIPAC's huge blast of negative ads made many people doubtful about him.
I am sure a "Sunrise Movement campaigner" contacted were hardly a representative sample of the NY16 electorate.

This is a good argument for more multicandidate-friendly voting systems like ranked-choice voting and proportional representation.
With proportional representation, lists are made by the parties. There is no chance at an insurgency like when JB ousted Elliott Engel. Or when AOC ousted Crowley for that matter. I am not sure how ranked choice would have helped the fire marshal because it was a two-horse race.

The campaigner was also critical of the Democratic party for having "utterly failed young people and working-class people", and that she hopes that by 2028, the party can have a Presidential candidate that she can support.
I hope not. Or we will probably get President JD Vance.
 
"Indypendent"[sic] is a far left rag.
A far left rag rated high for factual reporting.
By whom?
What lpetrich posted is not "factual reporting" but an opinion piece anyway. The hit piece was written by one Theodore Hamm, who also writes for the Marxist rag "Jacobin".
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This is a good argument for more multicandidate-friendly voting systems like ranked-choice voting and proportional representation.
With proportional representation, lists are made by the parties. There is no chance at an insurgency like when JB ousted Elliott Engel. Or when AOC ousted Crowley for that matter.
Politics under PR is very different from what Americans are accustomed to. It's about parties rather than individuals, though some politicians still become celebrities. So what would have happened instead is that AOC and JB would be members of some Progressive Party and EE and JC members of some Democratic Center Party. So EE and JC would lose their seats and AOC and JB gain their seats if the PP got an increased number of votes and the DCP a decreased number. If the DCP got an increased number again, then EE and JC might get their seats back.
I am not sure how ranked choice would have helped the fire marshal because it was a two-horse race.
That's because JB's opponents decided to consolidate around one candidate. They didn't do that in 2022, and with RCV, JB would likely have had a squeaker of a victory back then.
 
Politics under PR is very different from what Americans are accustomed to. It's about parties rather than individuals, though some politicians still become celebrities.
I am familiar with PR systems, most closely the German system even though that is technically a mixed member system. Half the MdBs are elected directly from districts, but there is an adjustment so that the overall composition closely matches the proportions of the Zweitstimmen (or "second votes" where the party lists are voted for) minus the parties that failed the 5% threshold that was implemented to avoid excessive fragmentation of the parliament that would make governing coalitions unstable.
So what would have happened instead is that AOC and JB would be members of some Progressive Party and EE and JC members of some Democratic Center Party.
Most likely. But is it questionable if the bartender and the middle school principal, respectively, would have been placed high enough on their party list to be elected given the percentage of votes it was likely to get. After all, these two only became well known after they took out incumbents in their low turnout, partisan primaries that would not exist under PR.
That's because JB's opponents decided to consolidate around one candidate. They didn't do that in 2022, and with RCV, JB would likely have had a squeaker of a victory back then.
It would still not have helped him in 2024 nor in 2022 - a squeaker is not better than a clear victory.
 
Seems like they were repeating an old poll from some months back.

New poll shows close race for Squad member Cori Bush - 9:37 a.m. ET June 26, 2024
The poll, conducted by The Mellman Group between June 18 and June 22, found that St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell overcame a double-digit deficit in January to lead Bush 43% to 42%. Four percent of the survey respondents supported other candidates on the ballot while 11% were undecided.
This is more plausible, considering the margin that she won by back in 2022.
 
AOC has this eulogy for Jamaal Bowman's Congressional career:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on X: ".@JamaalBowman. ..." / X
.@JamaalBowman.
Son of a single mother.
Grew up in public housing.
Dedicated his life to teaching.
Became a school principal.
Founded a prized school to serve Bronx youth.
Elected as the 1st Black Congressman for NY16.
Never took a dime in corporate money.

A true public servant.
with a picture of the two together.
 
Full picture of funding & spending between Wesley Bell & Cori Bush : r/StLouis - "A thread I found on Reddit yesterday inspired me to write this because I do not believe people understand just how unprecedented this amount of spending is."

Then explaining campaign financing in gory detail, like mentioning funding mediators like ActBlue for Democrats and WinRed for Republicans.
In addition, American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) endorsed candidates are also listed on the AIPAC website as a separate way to raise money for their candidates. There are a lot of AIPAC endorsed candidates, but they list their highest priorities at the top of the page. Currently that’s Wesley Bell. As of July 25th, Bell has received $2,526,337 directly through AIPAC. This counts for 61% of the total $4,077,744 that he has raised in this election.

In comparison, as of March 20th 2024, the politician who has received the most ever from pro-Israel donations ever (mostly AIPAC, but others as well) in his career is Joe Biden with $4,223,143. With the exception of Biden, Bell has received more through AIPAC donations than every single candidate in their history.
Then noting that Bob Mendenez ($2,510,505), Hillary Clinton ($2,357,122), Joe Lieberman($1,998,774), Mitch McConnell ($1,953,910), Chuck Schumer ($1,725,324), John McCain ($1,493,816), and Ted Cruz ($1,401,335) have all received less money from AIPAC than a certain candidate for a certain House seat.
If we look back at Bush’s victory over Lacy Clay in 2020, Clay raised $813,390 and Bush raised $1,418,014. So for Bell to raise over $4,000,000 in a campaign only 4 years later is truly eye popping, and the majority of the funding is coming a pro-Israel lobby due to Bush’s criticism of how Israel is handling its war. However, that only scratches the surface of the amount of money spent benefitting Bell’s campaign.
 
Then noting the "independent expenditure" loophole, where one can get around campaign-contribution limits by denoting to some PAC that claims to be independent of the candidate. AIPAC created the UDP to be such a PAC.
Some of the top donors to UDP are WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum ($5,000,000), finance capitalist Jonathan Jacobson ($2,500,000), CEO of GreenSky David Zalik ($2,000,000), president of Elliott Management Paul Singer ($2,000,000), Home Depot co-founder Bernard Marcus ($2,000,000), the widow of someone considered one of the original “Mad Men” Helaine Lerner ($1,000,000), Israeli-American businessman Haim Saban ($1,000,000), businessman Paul Levy ($1,000,0000), and New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft ($500,000).
Then noting what seems to be this article: AIPAC is the biggest source of Republican donors giving to Democratic primaries - POLITICO
As of July 25th, UDP has spent $7 million in this election with about 40% of it in favor of Bell and 60% of it against Bush. UDP is the largest spender by far, but there are other PACs supporting Bell and opposing Bush. The cryptocurrency super PAC Fairshake spent over $1 million against Bush. Mainstream Democrats PAC, an anti-progressive group funded by the co-founder of LinkedIn, has spent almost $900k. Democratic Majority For Israel (DMFI) has spent almost $500k support of Bell. Resist Reclaim Rebuild PAC spent $97k against Bush. Empowering Black Americans PAC, which is led by executives with prior connections to Michael Bloomberg and AIPAC, has spent $83k in support of Bell. Finally, the National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee has spent $46k in support of Bell. There has been a total of $9,649,007 in independent expenditures spent in support of Bell or against Bush. None of these super PACs are running ads on what their primary issue is though, instead they talk about Bell as a “progressive champion” and Bush as “ineffective.”
The same thing that they did with other candidates. They don't brag about how much their favorite candidate loves Israel, they bring in other issues, like saying that a candidate is incompetent or opposed to President Biden or progressive goals or whatever. They are even willing to deny their own values, like presenting Wesley Bell as a "progressive champion"
 
By comparison, Cori Bush's supporters are puny.
Some grassroots independent expenditures have come in to defend Bush from this onslaught of spending, but they cannot come close to matching the money of the super PACs spending against her. The biggest one is the Justice Democrats PAC, which put in just over $1,000,000 in support of Bush and $520,005 against Bell. ... The other PACs who have supported Bush are the Working Families Party PAC with almost $400k spent, National Nurses United with $121k spent, Congressional Progressive Caucus with $85k spent, Medicare For All with $57k spent, Planned Parenthood Votes with about $50k spent, and Black Voters Matter Action PAC with about $8k spent. These are all much more grassroots and smaller organizations without the backing of billionaires, but they are throwing in everything they can to help Bush from this spending spree. They have spent a total of $2,241,160 helping Bush (against the $9,649,007 spending in Bell’s favor).

In total, there have already been about $14 million spent in support of Bell and against Bush. Bush has raised an impressive $2,642,789 in direct donations through ActBlue, and combined with independent expenditures there have been close to $5 million in support of her.
A nearly 3:1 ratio.

How can we trust Bell to fight for St. Louis when he is relying on billionaires and super PACs to win his election? How can he be a progressive champion if he has to answer to those donors? He will know better than anyone what happens if you cross the wealthy donor class as he sees what happened to Bush.
He will be an obedient lackey who meekly asks his AIPAC babysitter about how he should vote on this and that.

If he offers the Francis Bacon defense, sure I took those bribes but I didn't let them influence me, then he should demonstrate that.
[/quote]
Then saying that such lobbies ought to state what their real reason is, like support of Israel or support of cryptocurrency.

Finally, if AIPAC and UDP gets away with this, do you think it will end there? Why would large and wealthy oil lobbies or weapons manufacturers or tobacco companies or whoever also not follow this blueprint? This is a big concern for our democracy and we need to fight against it now and not leave it up to lobbies to decide who gets to represent us in Congress.
I agree.

What would be a great sight to see is if some rival lobby decides to spend enormous sums of money on campaigns, like Saudi Arabia or Qatar or the UAE. Imagine a Saudi-funded PAC spending millions to support candidates opposed by AIPAC.
 
Some commenters snickered about Cori Bush's claimed successes in faith healing.

Another commenter mentioned one of Wesley Bell's previous campaign efforts: Rep. Cori Bush’s Democratic Challenger Has A Hidden GOP Past | HuffPost Latest News - back in 2006
The candidate, Mark J. Byrne, ran as a fierce abortion opponent and gun rights crusader. “I intend to protect the rights of the unborn,” his campaign website read. “I believe that there is no greater job for elected representatives.”

...
“Nearly 20 years ago, Wesley helped a longtime friend by volunteering with his campaign, in spite of their differences in political affiliations and positions on many issues,” said Anjan Mukherjee, a spokesperson for Bell’s campaign. “Wesley has been a progressive prosecutor, working to overturn wrongful convictions and refusing to prosecute women for abortions, and he will be a progressive member of Congress who works with President Biden.”

Byrne, who is now a municipal judge in a neighboring county, said Bell ran his campaign as a friendly favor. The two met as young lawyers in St. Louis County, he recalled, and became friends over years of poker nights.

“He didn’t run a Republican’s campaign, he ran a friend’s campaign,” Byrne said in an interview this week with HuffPost. “He and I didn’t see eye to eye on political issues, but he did the best that he could to try to help me get elected.”

...
“Bell’s willingness to defend abortion rights depends solely on how it helps his own political career,” said Usamah Andrabi, the spokesperson for Justice Democrats, a grassroots group supporting Bush. “There is no excuse that can justify leading the campaign to elect a Republican extremist.”
 
More commenters:
LostVanguard • 6d ago

Thank you for this post. People need to realize that none of the talking points matter. Follow the money. The money tells the story and it doesn't lie.
He might to deny it with the Francis Bacon defense, however.
THENHAUS 6d ago

They came for Bowman, now they're coming for Bush. Picking off the progressives one by one. Unlimited right-wing campaign cash will be the death of this democracy.

DeadbeatHero- • 6d ago

Bell was supposed to run against Hawley, instead he chose to run against another Democrat using obscene amounts of money from AIPAC. That should tell you all you need to know.

Establishment dems are hellbent on kneecapping any kind of progressive movement from within the party and it's fucking disgusting. These are the same people that would literally rather have a Trump presidency over a Bernie one. They don't want to do anything that will help working class folks, they just virtue signal to stay in power. To me they are no better than republicans.

Cori hasn't been as effective as I'd hoped but I feel like can trust her to be straight with her constituents. Bell has "generic corporate politician" written all over him. I'm voting against him in August and if he wins he will not have my vote in November.
 
Butchering_it 6d ago

There's lots of people saying bell is bad for money raised for him. Maybe also try some introspection. It shouldn't be that easy for someone to challenge an incumbent if they are doing their job well.
then
Useful_Permit1162 • 6d ago

Try telling that to Andy Levin, a pro-Israel Democrat, leader of his synagogue, popular in his district, who AIPAC donated to, until he made a comment that he believed a two state solution was best. AIPAC found a primary opponent, flooded the district with money and got Levin out. They literally used the same tactics they are using here, flooding the airwaves and mail with ads that called him disloyal to Biden and criticizing his alleged "Republican tactics".




don't know that people quite understand just how effective these strategies are with low information voters, which are the vast majority of voters. Negative ads stay in people's minds easier than positive ones and right now people are seeing near constant negative ads on Bush. What happens is that you see an ad over and over again or get a flyer over and over again and you certainly believe that thing to be true, you can't remember where it came from, but you can feel it in your gut that it is. There is effectively no way to compete with that if you aren't similarly funded and AIPAC funded candidates have been outspending their challengers by 5-10x. Even candidates with goodwill in their district can't overcome that.


https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/why-negative-campaigning-works-and-how-fight-it https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/03/aipac-israel-spending-democratic-primaries-00144552
They did that with Nina Turner, Summer Lee, Donna Edwards, Andy Levin, Susheela Jayapal, ... and they only lost once: Summer Lee.
 
Another comment:
blartuc • 5d ago

I live in NY. The attack ads against Bowman were relentless and extremely often. Misleading at best, and at times, just pure bullshit. Bottom line is, it works. Unfortunately, the majority of Democratic politicians are not looking to change a thing
Because they aren't being bitten in their rear ends.

Cori Bush Primary Race Is Flooded With AIPAC Money Over Her Support for Ceasefire | Teen Vogue
“My daughter, who is 23 now, has less rights to her own body than I had when I was her age,” Bush tells Teen Vogue. “And I have to fight to make sure she has what she needs and every other person that would need those services.”

“Fighting for something is how we lead,” says Bush. “We lead by showing up. If we really believe in an issue, we put ourselves on the line for that issue. St. Louis means that much to me. I don't want St. Louis and the people across this country harmed. That is the difference between being someone who supports something and someone who will fight for it. I'm fighting to actually see change.”

In Bush’s two terms in Congress, she’s become known for her leadership on reproductive justice and abortion rights. The former activist is one of the most visible, consistent, progressive voices on Capitol Hill, pushing for student debt forgiveness and arguing for the protest rights of young pro-Palestine demonstrators. And that visibility has made her a target.
Then about her activism.
Many of those fights are risky, especially for a congresswoman still early in her political career. Bush says she’s okay with going against the grain and occasionally ruffling feathers. Opposing legislation and risking backlash is worth the risk if it’s in service of the communities she represents. The challenges she has faced in her personal life including poverty, homelessness, and living paycheck to paycheck — alongside finding her political footing protesting with her fellow St. Louisans during the Ferguson Uprising — have given her a different approach to electoral politics. For example, sleeping on the steps of the U.S. Capitol to pressure President Biden and congressional Democrats into extending the eviction moratorium was unconventional, but it worked. The stakes are always present, so for Bush, the fight for resources, rights, visibility, and access is always on.

“I've never forgotten what it felt like to be hungry, those days when I only fed my kids [and] I didn't eat,” Bush explains. “I've never forgotten what it felt like to be evicted from my home and have to put all of our belongings in trash bags because I couldn't afford boxes….That's how I approach legislation. That's how I approach being an elected official, doing the work for everybody in this district, but starting with those who have the greatest need, starting with those that people don't talk about or they don't see.”
 
Democrats groan at AIPAC 's$14.5 million "overkill" against Jamaal Bowman
Why it matters: Even some lawmakers who are generally supportive of Israel say the money is meant to intimidate Democrats away from criticism of the Jewish state.

"It might change how they talk about [Israel]," one moderate House Democrat said of their colleagues, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

...
AIPAC's record-shattering spending has some House Democrats rattled. "The number is gross ... I don't like it," one told Axios, calling the figure "overkill."
  • "If anything that much money could backfire, because then you get people that are like, 'This is just wrong,'" the lawmaker added.
  • Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said it was "not necessary for AIPAC to spend so much money," arguing that Bowman was "sufficiently out of step with the district" that Latimer would have won with "a lot less" financial support.
  • A senior House Democrat said spending at this volume inevitably has a chilling effect on lawmakers, saying of AIPAC: "They do that a lot.
Then noting that JB and CB have some vulnerabilities.
  • Both had unique scandals that made them particularly weak: Bowman pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge and was censured for pulling a Capitol Hill fire alarm, while Bush faces multiple investigations into her campaign finances.
  • AIPAC sat out Rep. Summer Lee's (D-Pa.) primary challenge — in which she handily beat a novice pro-Israel opponent — and hasn't fielded challengers to several "Squad" members without glaring vulnerabilities.

JB and CB are both 48 years old. This suggests that they could have plenty of career ahead of them in activism, even if not in elected office.

Missouri has a sore-loser law, but New York doesn't, though I doubt that JB will want to run in the general election. As to future electoral politics, CB could have a career in the St. Louis area, but JB will have to move further south. Will he challenge Ritchie Torres (D-AIPAC) in 2026?
 
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