Yet another war, this time with Iran

[TV and credit cards]

Roos in the paddock=Toys in the attic.

 

[Derec]

The West is clearly dying, at least they think they are dying.

Why would I care? I live at longitude 153°E. That's 20° further East than Vladivostok.

Unlike north and south, east and west does not have an ultimate extent. It just wraps around, Pacman style. You went so far east, you are west again.

 

[Derec]

Roos in the paddock=Toys in the attic.

Bats in the bellfry?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Good news. Trump is winning so much in Iran that he can also go win at golf. So much winning.

Trump’s War Story Blown Up by Jaw-Dropping New Evidence

New findings undercut the president’s claims.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[DrZoidberg]

US economy faces competition from China and India (we are projected to have a bigger economy than US by 2050). That is the reason why US or China are not very happy with India (and befriend Pakistan). Quite natural.

GDP projections from PwC: how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050

GDP projections from consultancy PwC show how the US, UK and the west will fall far behind the new economic powers like China in GDP by 2050. See what the data says

www.theguardian.com

Wait. This can't be right. Everyone knows that due to Japan's "economic miracle", they surpassed the US economy 26 years ago.

Thing about growth assumptions is they are just that, assumptions, assumptions based on current information, information that does not change going forward.

These articles are written for audiences a lot younger than you or I, audiences that have little memory of the eighties. You should know better.

Japan was a catch up economy. People were amazed by the growth. What a surprise. It had been bombed to the stone age, and had to build everything from scratch. What a surprise the growth numbers were impressive. Nobody says, "if only USA also had been bombed, they'd be so much richer now".

People often get unreasonably impressed by growth. Vietnam's and India's growth comes from the government stopping to do dumb stuff. Both Vietnam and India went socialist after indipendence. The growth started when the stopped with the socialism. China... same deal. But China is now coming out of the catch-up phase. Like Japan in the 90'ies. It's not that China is failing as an economy. It's just that all the "free" growth from when they stopped being stupid, is over.

Nigeria has no business ever being poor. On paper, they have everything to become a major power. But since indipendence they've had kleptocrats in power. They still do. They're now starting to get their act together. South Africa has now become a standard African kleptocrat economy.

People get so impressed by growth. When it most often is just evidence of countries having stopped with being dumb. That's like giving prizes to the people last in a race who only just have started to pick up the pace.

It's way more impressive to maintain growth when you're already at the top. USA is doing fine.

What a mature economy has going for it is that it's robust to sudden shocks. A catch-up economy always has all the eggs in one basket. Once they hit a bump in the road the eggs break. It's not that Japan's economy is shit now. It was just over-valued in the 1980'ies. The 90'ies "crash" was an adjustment of expectations. Not a loss in value. Japan is doing fine. Each time an strong economy hits a bust and boom cycle the robustness increases. That's a good thing. But on paper it looks like growth is bad.

Anyway... people are often impressed by bullshit numbers in economy

 

[aupmanyav]

Anyway... people are often impressed by bullshit numbers in economy

Agree with you. India came out of Covid-19 nicely. Let us see how we fare during the US-Iran war upheavals. Life is a challenge at every step.
AI - Asian Development Bank says 6.5% growth, IMF says 6.6%, World Bank says 6.5–6.8%.

 

[aupmanyav]

The real deal is that Nato scares Russia because it prevents or makes much more dangerous their desire to take more land and kill more people. .. Russia wants to conquer. And it looks like their next conquest is Armenia.

That is the success of American propaganda. US gets allegiance from other NATO countries by creating a fear that Russia will attack them. This is no different from opposition parties in India telling Muslims that BJP government wants to finish them, and that they will allow them to do whatever they want if they come to power. In US, Trump raises the fear that immigrants are destroying the US. These are political stances.

 

[aupmanyav]

It should not matter what religious belief you have to not like what the Israeli government is doing and allowing to be done to the Palestinians.

Between Israel and Muslims it is very much a religious thing. India tries to keep a balance.

 

[aupmanyav]

Sorry, but there's a crap ton of discussion going on in Austria and Switzerland on the threat of Russia. The belief that their neutrality protects them is waning.

IMHO, that is true. Why do you think it is crap? Just because it goes against your view? One fights enemies and not neutral countries.

 

[aupmanyav]

@Harry Bosch said: "
Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future.

3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since. No country in history remains on top forever. We won't stay on top forever."

Aup.: Why? Russia's relations with Europe were based on gas. Russia's relations with India are based on gas, petrol and military supplies. Much of Europe, Asia US has a government of idiots. Muslims hate them. Why does US need more military power? Don't they have enough? Does someone intends to attack them. The war is economic and China has won the war.

 

[laughing dog]

"NATO" isn't just a generic shorthand for "people who have reason to dislike Russia". You know that, right?

Ukraine had no reason to dislike Russia until US/NATO put "people who have "reason to dislike Russia" a.k.a nazis into power.

The Holomodor is not forgotten by Ukranians even if you have.

 

[aupmanyav]

The Holomodor is not forgotten by Ukranians even if you have.

No, I have not. It is history. But that was a century ago (1932). In trying to join Europe and US, they have landed up in a greater horror. They have lost much and gained nothing.

 

[barbos]

aupmanyav,
I am not sure who said what about soft power. But it is absolutely true that Russia has no soft power.
Still we need to define what "soft power" is. Because it is not what people usually think.
People think it is all the great things western world has, all the help and good will.
In reality it is a threat of sanctions on any individual politician in non-western country, who does not bend over for the western rullers.
You want to disagree with the West? Well, let's start with travel ban to EU. So no soup trip to Paris for you!
Oh, you want to behave? OK then, we are watching you and if you do well we will make sure you get a cushy post at some UN organization once you are done helping us with ruining your country.

Russia, on the other hand, has none of that, no Paris and no high couture corruption. All we have is cheap gas for population but nothing to offer to politicians long term. I mean we can try, but then EU comes and ruins it by destroying the person with their "soft" power.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, Trump just can't stop saying stuff.

After saying Iran’s navy and air force were “totally gone”, the president then commented on Iran’s “military”, telling Lara Trump: “Their military, we’ve sort of left it alone, because we think that their military is somewhat, somewhat moderate ... We’ve actually left their military alone. People would be surprised to hear that.”

He went on to claim that leaving Iran’s “military” intact was necessary to keep the country from collapsing into chaos as had occurred in areas of Iraq and Syria with the rise of the Islamic State, partially caused by the power vacuum resulting from the U.S.-led purge of Saddam Hussein’s party from Iraq’s government after the 2003 invasion.

Then some other person made these comments.

This was the first mention the president appears to have made about avoiding U.S. strikes against specific parts of Iran’s armed forces. But he seemed to contradict it only moments later, in the same interview.

“Iran is in a very bad position. They have no military, all they have is good talk and a fake press,” said the president.

Oh wait... same person, said objectively opposite things that can't both be true, in the same interview which had to be done by family because even Fox News loyalist commentators would have had to raise an objection to the blatant contradiction. And he is charge of ending the stupid ass thing he started... with no damn plan. At least we had mobilized a military in Iraq and at least planned having a transitional government.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

From Colonel Sanders:

From Colonel Sanders:

The U.S., despite so many who wish for it to be, is not in economic decline nor is its influence around the globe.


As for Austria, whatever. They're buffered from Russia by four different nations, so their concerns are nowhere near as great as the countries that directly border Russia.

And fuck Switzerland. Its geography makes it worthless in terms of hostile military occupation, which, unlike every other European nation allows it to insulate itself from the real problems in Europe all while patting itself on the back for its bullshit high-minded neutrality. It's the money laundering capital of the western world, and its hands are as bloody as any other nation with respect to turning away Jews during the Holocaust.

Oh, but they have yodeling, elaborately decorate their cows, and have a famous Disneyland ride named after a geographical feature! Yay Switzerland!

Sure, the US has the most powerful military and the largest most profitable economy in the world. But in relative terms, there are many signs of decline. I don't think that it will take long for China to overtake it. Some subtle signs that I see: 1) wall street. It's always been a rule of thumb that people invest 90% of their portfolio in the US, 10% foreign. Most experts today advise that investors only keep 75% in the US. Investors are finding better long term returns overseas. 2) We are dramatically losing our soft power. This has dire effect on foreign policy today and will be a big problem in the future. I'm trying to not be too political, as this started a little before Trump. But Trump has greatly accelerated this problem. This means that future military operations that the US undertakes to secure its interests will be very painful and expensive. For example: Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future. 3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since. No country in history remains on top forever. Our time is coming.

Paragraph breaks please.

Your wish is my command!

Sure, the US has the most powerful military and the largest most profitable economy in the world. But in relative terms, there are many signs of decline. I don't think that it will take long for China to overtake it.

Some subtle signs that I see: 1) wall street. It's always been a rule of thumb that people invest 90% of their portfolio in the US, 10% foreign. Most experts today advise that investors only keep 75% in the US. Investors are finding better long term returns overseas.

2) We are dramatically losing our soft power. This has dire effect on foreign policy today and will be a big problem in the future. I'm trying to not be too political, as this started a little before Trump. But Trump has greatly accelerated this problem. This means that future military operations that the US undertakes to secure its interests will be very painful and expensive. For example: Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future.

3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since.

No country in history remains on top forever. We won't stay on top forever.

Military: the U.S. can power project to any place in the world it wants/needs. This projection is supported and wanted by European and Asian allies. They give up a measure of autonomy in order to keep their militaries at minimum requirements although this may be changing, but not enough to change the current dynamic. There is simply no force that can compete with the U.S. in a total war setting. Also, soft power can be regained assuming Trump actually leaves office. If he doesn't then we're completely fucked and the worst projections do indeed become very real.

With respect to adaptation, the U.S is already out in front of recent developments. The new Abrams tank is going to be 20 tons lighter and provide for overhead armament in order to adapt to changing battlefield dynamics. Our technology is still second to none and despite Trump's idiocy, there is no good reason to think that's going to change.

Iran isn't a war. It's an ill-advised tantrum. In an invasion/total war scenario meant to wholly take over Iran, the only serious problem would be the potential logistical problems. However, the U.S. has the best logistics in the world.

As an effective fighting force, Iran's capabilities were destroyed in a night. The leverage they currently have in the Strait of Hormuz would evaporate upon invasion because the full weight of U.S. military might would render their ability to threaten ships moot. It would take a few weeks to get the threat controlled, but it would happen.

"Relative Decline" isn't meaningful here. China's economy is large and close to the U.S. However, early projections with respect to overtaking the U.S. have changed to it possibly occurring in the 2060s as opposed to any time soon. And these are only projections. China's economy is as vulnerable to decline as any others. In addition, the standard of overall living in China is the primary way through which it has grown i.e., workers get paid shit and children are put to work as early as 13 in all kinds of factory and farming jobs.

The numbers on investments in foreign assets range anywhere from 5% to 20% and emerging nation funds have always existed. Shareholder diversification has always existed, so an expansion of such isn't alarming. Even in that regard, American stocks are much safer because if the U.S. market tanks, the rest of the world will tank even more. The word economy is just that: an integrated, interdependent worldwide market that prospers and suffers as a whole. For example, if Germany or France were to suddenly and catastrophically fall into some kind of massive crisis, the rest of the wold markets would be negatively impacted because such a situation wouldn't be isolated to one nation. It would mean a systemic failure arising from manifold issues.

As mentioned above, if Trump decides to void the entire political structure by e.g. staying in office, then all bets are off. If he leaves there will likely be a return to norms and therefore restoration of reliable stability.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

From Colonel Sanders:

From Colonel Sanders:

The U.S., despite so many who wish for it to be, is not in economic decline nor is its influence around the globe.


As for Austria, whatever. They're buffered from Russia by four different nations, so their concerns are nowhere near as great as the countries that directly border Russia.

And fuck Switzerland. Its geography makes it worthless in terms of hostile military occupation, which, unlike every other European nation allows it to insulate itself from the real problems in Europe all while patting itself on the back for its bullshit high-minded neutrality. It's the money laundering capital of the western world, and its hands are as bloody as any other nation with respect to turning away Jews during the Holocaust.

Oh, but they have yodeling, elaborately decorate their cows, and have a famous Disneyland ride named after a geographical feature! Yay Switzerland!

Sure, the US has the most powerful military and the largest most profitable economy in the world. But in relative terms, there are many signs of decline. I don't think that it will take long for China to overtake it. Some subtle signs that I see: 1) wall street. It's always been a rule of thumb that people invest 90% of their portfolio in the US, 10% foreign. Most experts today advise that investors only keep 75% in the US. Investors are finding better long term returns overseas. 2) We are dramatically losing our soft power. This has dire effect on foreign policy today and will be a big problem in the future. I'm trying to not be too political, as this started a little before Trump. But Trump has greatly accelerated this problem. This means that future military operations that the US undertakes to secure its interests will be very painful and expensive. For example: Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future. 3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since. No country in history remains on top forever. Our time is coming.

Paragraph breaks please.

Your wish is my command!

Sure, the US has the most powerful military and the largest most profitable economy in the world. But in relative terms, there are many signs of decline. I don't think that it will take long for China to overtake it.

Some subtle signs that I see: 1) wall street. It's always been a rule of thumb that people invest 90% of their portfolio in the US, 10% foreign. Most experts today advise that investors only keep 75% in the US. Investors are finding better long term returns overseas.

2) We are dramatically losing our soft power. This has dire effect on foreign policy today and will be a big problem in the future. I'm trying to not be too political, as this started a little before Trump. But Trump has greatly accelerated this problem. This means that future military operations that the US undertakes to secure its interests will be very painful and expensive. For example: Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future.

3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since.

No country in history remains on top forever. We won't stay on top forever.

Military: the U.S. can power project to any place in the world it wants/needs. This projection is supported and wanted by European and Asian allies. They give up a measure of autonomy in order to keep their militaries at minimum requirements although this may be changing, but not enough to change the current dynamic. There is simply no force that can compete with the U.S. in a total war setting. Also, soft power can be regained assuming Trump actually leaves office. If he doesn't then we're completely fucked and the worst projections do indeed become very real.

With respect to adaptation, the U.S is already out in front of recent developments. The new Abrams tank is going to be 20 tons lighter and provide for overhead armament in order to adapt to changing battlefield dynamics. Our technology is still second to none and despite Trump's idiocy, there is no good reason to think that's going to change.

Which is why we defeating North Korea, North Vietnam, and managed quite easily in Iraq. Granted, you point is ceded that Iraq's military accepted our win as a sure thing and US military might helped take Iraq without much blood loss at all. That statement stops at the period.

Iran isn't a war. It's an ill-advised tantrum. In an invasion/total war scenario meant to wholly take over Iran, the only serious problem would be the potential logistical problems. However, the U.S. has the best logistics in the world.


As an effective fighting force, Iran's capabilities were destroyed in a night. The leverage they currently have in the Strait of Hormuz would evaporate upon invasion because the full weight of U.S. military might would render their ability to threaten ships moot. It would take a few weeks to get the threat controlled, but it would happen.**

**After 8 to 12 months of mobilizing forces where in Iran would be able to prep a little.

As mentioned above, if Trump decides to void the entire political structure by e.g. staying in office, then all bets are off. If he leaves there will likely be a return to norms and therefore restoration of reliable stability.

Trump apparently is willing to let America's economy devolve into stagflation because he is in no rush with Iran. Heck, he doesn't even seem to have a goal with Iran. The Stock Market could be at 48,000 in six months, it could be half that.

Our military might is really only suited to big war stuff. Once you start going small war or occupation, it isn't as useful.

 

[Colonel Sanders]

From Colonel Sanders:

From Colonel Sanders:

The U.S., despite so many who wish for it to be, is not in economic decline nor is its influence around the globe.


As for Austria, whatever. They're buffered from Russia by four different nations, so their concerns are nowhere near as great as the countries that directly border Russia.

And fuck Switzerland. Its geography makes it worthless in terms of hostile military occupation, which, unlike every other European nation allows it to insulate itself from the real problems in Europe all while patting itself on the back for its bullshit high-minded neutrality. It's the money laundering capital of the western world, and its hands are as bloody as any other nation with respect to turning away Jews during the Holocaust.

Oh, but they have yodeling, elaborately decorate their cows, and have a famous Disneyland ride named after a geographical feature! Yay Switzerland!

Sure, the US has the most powerful military and the largest most profitable economy in the world. But in relative terms, there are many signs of decline. I don't think that it will take long for China to overtake it. Some subtle signs that I see: 1) wall street. It's always been a rule of thumb that people invest 90% of their portfolio in the US, 10% foreign. Most experts today advise that investors only keep 75% in the US. Investors are finding better long term returns overseas. 2) We are dramatically losing our soft power. This has dire effect on foreign policy today and will be a big problem in the future. I'm trying to not be too political, as this started a little before Trump. But Trump has greatly accelerated this problem. This means that future military operations that the US undertakes to secure its interests will be very painful and expensive. For example: Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future. 3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since. No country in history remains on top forever. Our time is coming.

Paragraph breaks please.

Your wish is my command!

Sure, the US has the most powerful military and the largest most profitable economy in the world. But in relative terms, there are many signs of decline. I don't think that it will take long for China to overtake it.

Some subtle signs that I see: 1) wall street. It's always been a rule of thumb that people invest 90% of their portfolio in the US, 10% foreign. Most experts today advise that investors only keep 75% in the US. Investors are finding better long term returns overseas.

2) We are dramatically losing our soft power. This has dire effect on foreign policy today and will be a big problem in the future. I'm trying to not be too political, as this started a little before Trump. But Trump has greatly accelerated this problem. This means that future military operations that the US undertakes to secure its interests will be very painful and expensive. For example: Russia has zero soft power. The only way that they can keep friendly relations with their direct neighbors is to threaten and bully. Then they have to extend 1,000,000 troops and years' worth of armaments. We'll never have as little soft power as Russia, but it is growing problem for us. We're losing Europe. Canada hates our guts (don't blame them); they are now buying arms from other nations. Much of Asia thinks that we idiots. This is not going to be easy to reverse in the future.

3) It seems to me that our military hasn't adapted to the new military needs of today. Trump wants to build more ships?? Why. I think that we need to be more like Ukraine. Dramatically increase our drone technology. We are struggling in Iran, that should be unacceptable. 4) Our government debt and personal consumer debt is at unsustainable levels. China has problems here also. I could add a few more, but I've probably lost you anyway! We peaked at the end of WW2. IMO, there has been a steady decline ever since.

No country in history remains on top forever. We won't stay on top forever.

Military: the U.S. can power project to any place in the world it wants/needs. This projection is supported and wanted by European and Asian allies. They give up a measure of autonomy in order to keep their militaries at minimum requirements although this may be changing, but not enough to change the current dynamic. There is simply no force that can compete with the U.S. in a total war setting. Also, soft power can be regained assuming Trump actually leaves office. If he doesn't then we're completely fucked and the worst projections do indeed become very real.

With respect to adaptation, the U.S is already out in front of recent developments. The new Abrams tank is going to be 20 tons lighter and provide for overhead armament in order to adapt to changing battlefield dynamics. Our technology is still second to none and despite Trump's idiocy, there is no good reason to think that's going to change.

Which is why we defeating North Korea, North Vietnam, and managed quite easily in Iraq. Granted, you point is ceded that Iraq's military accepted our win as a sure thing and US military might helped take Iraq without much blood loss at all. That statement stops at the period.

Iran isn't a war. It's an ill-advised tantrum. In an invasion/total war scenario meant to wholly take over Iran, the only serious problem would be the potential logistical problems. However, the U.S. has the best logistics in the world.


As an effective fighting force, Iran's capabilities were destroyed in a night. The leverage they currently have in the Strait of Hormuz would evaporate upon invasion because the full weight of U.S. military might would render their ability to threaten ships moot. It would take a few weeks to get the threat controlled, but it would happen.**

**After 8 to 12 months of mobilizing forces where in Iran would be able to prep a little.

As mentioned above, if Trump decides to void the entire political structure by e.g. staying in office, then all bets are off. If he leaves there will likely be a return to norms and therefore restoration of reliable stability.

Trump apparently is willing to let America's economy devolve into stagflation because he is in no rush with Iran. Heck, he doesn't even seem to have a goal with Iran. The Stock Market could be at 48,000 in six months, it could be half that.

Our military might is really only suited to big war stuff. Once you start going small war or occupation, it isn't as useful.

I specifically used the term "total war" several times.

And it doesn't matter how long Iran would have to be prepared. They'd get rolled over in a matter of weeks, and the only reason it would take that long is due to travel time. They'd have no air power and next to no artillery. They'd have drones, but that isn't going to stop an American invasion force. Why people keep assuming that drones are a strategic asset rather than the tactical ones they are is mysterious. Also, drones can be destroyed and their sources quickly depleted.

Also, I said that Trump's actions are the wildcard. If he causes the market to tank, then the game can change dramatically.

North Korea was a limited victory and didn't just involve the U.S. There were 16 NATO countries that sent combat troops and 23 in total sent various assets, e.g. military medical personnel. Nobody wanted a WW3 that would've happened had we kept NK. It's China's buffer nation in that area and taking it further than that would've been disastrous.

The same applied in Vietnam. If the U.S. had chosen to go to Hanoi and destroy that government, it could've done so in a matter of a few months, if not less. However, doing so would have assured a much wider conflict that nobody wanted.

Iraq: same concept as above. Had we ruthlessly destroyed Baghdad and other major population centers like we did with Japan and Germany it wouldn't have taken long to pacify it. Also, the idiotic de-Baathification policy only served to make things more difficult than they needed to be.

Since WW2, U.S. military policy in relevant conflicts has been one of restraint due to changing global circumstances. We did indeed beat NK's ass until China showed up, but then we beat them back as well and could've gone all the way to the Yalu, but again, that would've meant a wider war when the Korean War by itself was already unpopular.

 

[ZiprHead]

Sorry, but there's a crap ton of discussion going on in Austria and Switzerland on the threat of Russia. The belief that their neutrality protects them is waning.

IMHO, that is true. Why do you think it is crap? Just because it goes against your view? One fights enemies and not neutral countries.

Crap ton means a lot.

 

[Derec]

Russia is better served by trade rather than war, if US would allow it.

Certainly US (and Europe) would be happy trading with Russia if they stop their war in Ukraine and stop threatening their other neighbors.

US economy faces competition from China and India (we are projected to have a bigger economy than US by 2050).

Your chart lists PPP, purchasing power parity, not real dollars. While PPP has its utility, it does not indicate India will necessarily be a bigger economy because the measuring sticks (PPP dollars) are different for each country. It is also a projection out to 2050, almost a quarter century from now and presumably ~40 years since that graph was made.
India has its own issues that may hinder economic growth. One of the chief ones being climate and heat waves.
Survival before safety for Delhi's poor as temperatures hit 45C
It was not a coincidence that the inciting incident of "The Ministry of the Future" novel was set in India.

That is the reason why US or China are not very happy with India (and befriend Pakistan). Quite natural.

In what way are we "not very happy with India"?

 

[Tigers!]

The West is clearly dying, at least they think they are dying.

Why would I care? I live at longitude 153°E. That's 20° further East than Vladivostok.

You have the better weather.