DrZoidberg
Contributor
If the election would be today, who do you think would win?
Not, who you would vote for, but who you think will win.
Not, who you would vote for, but who you think will win.
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Does Trump has a chance in hell?
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Nice Squirrel
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The American People.
Jimmy Higgins
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I believe that Vermin Supreme ran in the Democrat Primary, I don't think he is on the ballot.
Data on new voter registrations came out today for Ohio. If you look at the map and the intensity of new registrations, you'll think you were looking at the Election map. Trump areas, mid to high single digits, Clinton areas, high teens to the twenties for percentages.
The polls have to be historically off for Trump to be the winner.
Data on new voter registrations came out today for Ohio. If you look at the map and the intensity of new registrations, you'll think you were looking at the Election map. Trump areas, mid to high single digits, Clinton areas, high teens to the twenties for percentages.
The polls have to be historically off for Trump to be the winner.
laughing dog
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Hell is the only place Trump has a chance.
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Nitpick: VS ran as a Libertarian. He was at their convention, the one where the one candidate stripped down to his skivvies while addressing the audience.
funinspace
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Trump has a small, but ever diminishing chance of winning (aka what Nate Silver says).
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"... in Hell"? Yes.
It's all over with, except for the crying. Trump is going to lose for all the reasons his campaign was doomed from the beginning. He did well in the beginning, when only people who felt they had some kind of stake in the election were concerned. As time went on, Trump gave more and more people a stake. Unfortunately for him, he lacks the ability to win over anyone who isn't already biased toward him.
Jimmy Higgins
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I ran some numbers and right now the victory looks to be between 6.8 and 8.2 million or about 5 to 6%. I'm thinking 7 million may be the difference. There would need to monster victories in CA, IL, NY, and the remainder of NE US to get Clinton up to 10%. Based on the Electoral College map, I think 6 or 7% may be wall.
That isn't a nitpick, that is a reasonable correction. I thought I had read somewhere he ran as a Democrat.
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Donald Trump does have a chance. It's not looking good for him, but it's not completely out of the realm of possibility. It all comes down to turnout at this point, since I don't think that there will be very much to sway the voters' minds this late in the game. Clinton has invested more in her ground game, so that's a huge point in her favour, but Trump generates a lot of enthusiasm in his supporters, so it can't be discounted that the polling models don't accurately reflect that.
Jimmy Higgins
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Trump generates a lot of enthusiasm among a fraction of the Republican party, which is a fraction of the US population. His fans love him, but they simply don't represent enough people.
ideologyhunter
Contributor
Them Wilford Brimley types (the real WB is 82) are a dying breed. In retrospect, in Presidential politics, 2004 may have been the High Water Mark of the G.O.P. In 25 years, bye-bye Caucasian majority, and they're already losing the college-eds. I have my fingers crossed.
Elixir
Made in America
I have a gut feeling that his rabid supporters who show up drunk and angry at his rallies are a lot more fond of screaming and yelling at rallies than of standing in line at a polling station and making careful, well thought-out choices on a ballot sheet. Turnout may not match the enthusiasm inferred by the raucousness of those rally parties.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG3u1cDublo
Jason Harvestdancer
Contributor
That he never intended to win, and that the only reason he ran was to make Hillary look reasonable. Yes, that is why it's all over and why Trump will lose.
JonA
Senior Member
Brexit
The thing I find the oddest about this election is that for all of Hillary Clinton's intelligence, guile, cunning and ability to play 4-D chess against the entire nation while solving a Rubix Cube blindfolded, she still can't manage to come up with a decent answer about her damn emails.
Jason Harvestdancer
Contributor
The uber-feminist Hillary needed Bill and Donald to come up with this plan for her. They're not the ones at the congressional hearing answering the questions about her emails, she is. Without the team of woman-abusing-men that support her, she really can't stand on her own.
Elixir
Made in America
So "I fucked up, I'm sorry and it won't happen again." doesn't cut it for you?