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Is N Korea really a threat?

I think we often make the mistake of assigning our point of view to others.

In 1941 it seemed to us that it would be insane for Japan to attack the two most powerful naval powers in the world when their military was already dangerously overextended in China. There was absolutely no way they could win. However to the Japanese way of thinking at the time if they gave up their gains in China, due to the sanctions imposed by the west, the Yamato Nation would cease to exist. They saw that fighting was their only hope, no matter how impossible.

Sadam Hussein tried to make us think he had WMD thinking that it would deter us from attacking him. We bought it because it made no sense to us that he'd be lying about it.

Who really understands the thinking of NK? They are reckless, the thinking may be that they would be able to make further attacks on South Korea thinking that the US would not intervene because of their nuclear ability.
 
I think we often make the mistake of assigning our point of view to others.

In 1941 it seemed to us that it would be insane for Japan to attack the two most powerful naval powers in the world when their military was already dangerously overextended in China. There was absolutely no way they could win. However to the Japanese way of thinking at the time if they gave up their gains in China, due to the sanctions imposed by the west, the Yamato Nation would cease to exist. They saw that fighting was their only hope, no matter how impossible.

Sadam Hussein tried to make us think he had WMD thinking that it would deter us from attacking him. We bought it because it made no sense to us that he'd be lying about it.

Who really understands the thinking of NK? They are reckless, the thinking may be that they would be able to make further attacks on South Korea thinking that the US would not intervene because of their nuclear ability.

Yeah, it is a possibility that the little fat boy is unhinged and ignorant enough to harbor such ambitions. Still, I think the best course would be to simply let him know that he and his minions will be obliterated if he tries any such thing. He might also understand that the totality of his country's obliteration will be proportioned to the perceived level of threat that he poses to others.
 
I think not, unless that little fat kid is suicidal.

Why would he EVER launch a nuke against anyone, let alone the US, when the retaliation would be swift and certain, rendering his entire territory an uninhabitable wasteland for generations to come?
This is much ado about very little - other than political posturing.

Of course he's not going to start a nuclear war. What happens if he starts a conventional war to conquer South Korea and uses his nukes to tell us to stay out of it, though?
 
So if North Korea gets the ICBM nuke set up, at what point are we at Cuba status... where the past 60 years of policy failed at containing nuclear weapons, but succeeded in not getting a lot of people outside of North Korea killed. A lot of North Koreans are suffering because of our sanctions. At what point do you give up, but try to get some sort of limit or agreement, such as making them shut up about nuclear secrets and not assist others?

Cuba is nowhere near the issue that North Korea is.

The Russians have always approached it pretty rationally--they want to take what they can but they also understand reality and nuclear diplomacy 101. The lunatics in North Korea understand neither. They're basically spoiled children. (I use the plural because the problem persists across generations.)
 
The dictator is a narcissist and so very dangerous. The same thing is true about the North Korean leader. As a result of tantrums they both could have at each other, half the civilized world could suffer for decades.
 
So if North Korea gets the ICBM nuke set up, at what point are we at Cuba status... where the past 60 years of policy failed at containing nuclear weapons, but succeeded in not getting a lot of people outside of North Korea killed. A lot of North Koreans are suffering because of our sanctions. At what point do you give up, but try to get some sort of limit or agreement, such as making them shut up about nuclear secrets and not assist others?

Cuba is nowhere near the issue that North Korea is.

The Russians have always approached it pretty rationally--they want to take what they can but they also understand reality and nuclear diplomacy 101. The lunatics in North Korea understand neither. They're basically spoiled children. (I use the plural because the problem persists across generations.)

Russia supplied NK with much of its nuke weapon technology.
 
I think we often make the mistake of assigning our point of view to others.

In 1941 it seemed to us that it would be insane for Japan to attack the two most powerful naval powers in the world when their military was already dangerously overextended in China. There was absolutely no way they could win. However to the Japanese way of thinking at the time if they gave up their gains in China, due to the sanctions imposed by the west, the Yamato Nation would cease to exist. They saw that fighting was their only hope, no matter how impossible.

Sadam Hussein tried to make us think he had WMD thinking that it would deter us from attacking him. We bought it because it made no sense to us that he'd be lying about it.

Who really understands the thinking of NK? They are reckless, the thinking may be that they would be able to make further attacks on South Korea thinking that the US would not intervene because of their nuclear ability.

This is what is rarely considered. We do not understand the culture and the position they are in from their perspective.

Lil Kim does as daddy did. He uses controlled provocations to get what he wants from the US. With these latest sanctions and seemingly with China actually on board this time, I think the question is, will it strain the North Korean economy enough to affect the morale of their army? Well, things aren't so bad that we are reading about thousands dying of malnutrition in the north. I think that will be one key sign. I don't think that at this time we have to worry much about nukes coming out of North Korea. The concern is a conventional war with North Korea. If the army's morale is likely to be affected, he might feel pressured to strike first. And beyond that, giving Lil Kim an out. He's got to be given a way out of the corner he may be painting himself into, if not, it's gets a lot uglier.
Trumpbrain is the wildcard.
 
Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

That answer is not a definite no, which is the heart of the problem. You can't say what crazy people are going to do and when those crazy people have nuclear weapons, they actually become a legitimate threat. You can't even say that he would view launching a nuke as a suicidal move on his part, since it's not a definite that his thought processes end in logical conclusions.

Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.

What evidence is there that he is insane? We are repeatedly told he is by the media, but I'm not sure what the evidence is

One could argue he is sane. America carpet bombed North Korea and killed at least 20% of the population in relatively recent history. America has continued to commit war crimes by launching wars of aggression around the globe.

Kim says he wants nuclear weapons as self defense. Sounds reasonable when you are being threatened to have some option to deter an attack.

I think that if the shoe was on the other foot Americans would be claiming they need nuclear weapons for self defense, don't you?
 
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Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.
A much better play would be to abandon the dictatorship and "hermit kingdom" routine and give his citizens basic freedoms.
What evidence is there that he is insane? We are repeatedly told he is by the media, but I'm not sure what the evidence is
His actions speak for themselves.
One could argue he is sane. America carpet bombed North Korea and killed at least 20% of the population in relatively recent history.
If you are talking about the Korean War of 1950-53, that was a UN sanctioned action because North Korea invaded South Korea.
America has continued to commit war crimes by launching wars of aggression around the globe.
:rolleyes:
Kim says he wants nuclear weapons as self defense.
He wants nuclear weapons for blackmail.

What US should do is develop more advanced missile defense. In particular, given that NK is fairly small and lacks SLBM capability, it would be prime target for boost phase ICBM defense. I.e. shooting the missiles shortly after they are launched.
 
Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

A better question is, are the people around him suicidal?

I'm guessing that he's got at least a few generals around who know that there's probably a US missile sub cruising the Pacific which contains more warheads than they'll ever have, and that there's absolutely nothing they could do if we decided to park it off their coast. Would they stand around while the fat kid sealed their fate?

Mutually Assured Destruction worked in part because of rational actors on both sides. With North Korea, there's no "mutually" about it, so what remains to be seen is if there are people in the regime who know that and will act rationally as a result.
 
We have to strike NK now, with everything short of nuclear weapons. It might cost 10 million lives now, but

the alternative is 20 or 40 (or 100) million lives lost later.


Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

That answer is not a definite no, which is the heart of the problem. You can't say what crazy people are going to do and when those crazy people have nuclear weapons, they actually become a legitimate threat. You can't even say that he would view launching a nuke as a suicidal move on his part, since it's not a definite that his thought processes end in logical conclusions.

Being able to say that he has a nuclear deterrent is his only play and the fact that he might actually use that deterrent means that the threat is actually a real one.

What evidence is there that he is insane? We are repeatedly told he is by the media, but I'm not sure what the evidence is

Either way, we should strike NK now and put an end to this threat.

If he's NOT insane, then he's playing a smart game of developing nukes for use as a future threat to intimidate other countries (mainly U.S.) to gain concessions. In which case we either have to put him down now, to prove that this doesn't work, or we have to recognize that all other small countries, and even some non-nations (terrorist groups, corporations) will use this same tactic some time in the future -- because if it worked for NK, it will work for them too.

Or, if he's wacked-out, we have to put him down before he starts a nuclear war. So, insane or not, he has to be crushed.


One could argue he is sane. America carpet bombed North Korea and killed at least 20% of the population in relatively recent history. America has continued to commit war crimes by launching wars of aggression around the globe.

Past history -- or lies about past history -- are irrelevant here. What matters now is preventing dozens of small countries from developing nuclear weapons. If NK is allowed to continue this, then in 50 years from now we'll have several more small countries threatening us with nukes and threatening to blow up L.A. or Chicago or New York if the U.S. doesn't meet some demand they make.


Kim says he wants nuclear weapons as self defense.

We must not allow every other country to have nuclear weapons for "self defense" or whatever jargon they use. The world will not be safe if Myanmar and Cuba and Venezuela and Taiwan and Yemen and Sudan and Libya etc. etc. etc. all have nuclear weapons ready to fire at Miami and Houston and Atlanta to protect their "self defense" -- that kind of "self defense" cannot be allowed to them. They will forego this if we make an example out of NK and show them that nukes are not the solution for them.


Sounds reasonable when you are being threatened to have some option to deter an attack.

This means giving every small country nuclear weapons to threaten every other country with, claiming it's for deterrence only, and trusting that all of them will use it for deterrence only. We are already trusting Russia and Pakistan and China etc. to use their nuclear weapons for deterrence only. Are we obligated to give nuclear weapons to every small country, so we have to trust 100 of them, or 200? Each additional nation having these weapons is one higher degree of risk. Isn't it best to keep that number as low as possible?

If we let NK do this, the number we have to trust will multiply probably without limit.


I think that if the shoe was on the other foot Americans would be claiming they need nuclear weapons for self defense, don't you?

translation: every country must have nuclear weapons -- Egypt, Sierra Leone, Uzbekistan, Philippines, Honduras -- and not only nations, but also organized crime syndicates and corporations and terror groups. They're all entitled to "self defense" against their perceived aggressors.
 
We have to destroy the NK regime, to serve as an example to all other small countries contemplating nuclear weapons.

Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

A better question is, are the people around him suicidal?

We can't take the gamble of hoping they will stop him. If we take that gamble, we also have to gamble that Guatemala and Argentina and Vietnam and Thailand and Kazakhstan and Malaysia etc. etc. etc. will have non-suicidal leaders running their nuclear arsenals, which will surely exist if we let NK profit from its nuclear program. How long will the world be safe as the nuclear weapons programs expand to every big and small country and all are trusted to have no one suicidal in charge?


I'm guessing that he's got at least a few generals around who know . . .

We can't rely on guessing. You have to extend this same guesswork to all the other countries who will also follow this strategy if it's allowed to work for North Korea.

So it's better to eliminate this expanding risk and prevent them having the capability at all. By showing them now that this strategy will not work.


. . . that there's probably a US missile sub cruising the Pacific which contains more warheads than they'll ever have, and that there's absolutely nothing they could do if we decided to park it off their coast. Would they stand around while the fat kid sealed their fate?

Maybe they'd stop him -- but then what? Since the nuclear threat worked for them, 50 or 100 other countries will adopt the same strategy, and eventually some other country's "fat kid" will start a nuclear war. We can't assume that every small country will have the checks on their "fat kid" to prevent him from going too far. Each time they succeed in using their nuclear threat to gain a small concession, they'll come back again with another demand for bigger concessions. Eventually it'll all blow up, one way or another.


Mutually Assured Destruction worked in part because of rational actors on both sides. With North Korea, there's no "mutually" about it, so what remains to be seen is if there are people in the regime who know that and will act rationally as a result.

We can't throw the dice to find out. And then have to do the same again and again, as more and more tiny nations adopt the nuclear weapons strategy.

It has to be demonstrated to all of them that this strategy will not work. We must make NK an object lesson for them.

We cannot let the threat continue to increase, and just hope there will never be a crazy "fat kid" in control. There could easily be another "fat kid" some time in the future who'll be even worse than the current one.
 
I think it is unlikely NK would actually launch a bomb at a US base but he might do something daft to SK. Kim will continue to provoke until he gets whatever he is adter or he is slapped down.
 
I think it is unlikely NK would actually launch a bomb at a US base but he might do something daft to SK. Kim will continue to provoke until he gets whatever he is adter or he is slapped down.
The Kim Dynasty is after the Kim Dynasty. The currently have it, they want to keep it. Attacking anywhere will put it at great risk.

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Wouldn't an easier solution be to take this " fat Kid " out?
Gee, why hasn't anyone else thought of that!? You should work in Intelligence.
 
Well, that's the question. Is the little fat kid suicidal?

A better question is, are the people around him suicidal?

I'm guessing that he's got at least a few generals around who know that there's probably a US missile sub cruising the Pacific which contains more warheads than they'll ever have, and that there's absolutely nothing they could do if we decided to park it off their coast. Would they stand around while the fat kid sealed their fate?

Mutually Assured Destruction worked in part because of rational actors on both sides. With North Korea, there's no "mutually" about it, so what remains to be seen is if there are people in the regime who know that and will act rationally as a result.

They're not going to park one off his coast.

1) Boomers hide. That means the open ocean, not near somebody's coast.

2) When you fire a missile you give everyone within many miles your location. Get too close to the enemy and you risk them nuking the ocean where you are.

3) Getting too close decreases your accuracy--the missiles are solid fueled which means you can't just shut them down when you've built up enough velocity. All you can do is either burn a stage or not burn it. That limits your trajectory options and it also means less time for the tracker to do midcourse corrections. Depressed trajectory shots are only used in a first strike role and are mostly a Russian option. (Washington is by the ocean. A sub could get in fairly close and lob missiles with a very short flight time. Moscow is far from the ocean, that option does not exist for us.)
 
I think it is unlikely NK would actually launch a bomb at a US base but he might do something daft to SK. Kim will continue to provoke until he gets whatever he is adter or he is slapped down.

When he gets what he wants he backs down for a bit and then starts a new scheme to get more.
 
I think it is unlikely NK would actually launch a bomb at a US base but he might do something daft to SK. Kim will continue to provoke until he gets whatever he is adter or he is slapped down.

When he gets what he wants he backs down for a bit and then starts a new scheme to get more.

Nah that's so ridiculous! Appeasement has a long historic track record of ensuring lasting peace throughout the world!
 
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