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New Hampshire Primaries

 
 
 
Tulsi is done, Yang is done (officially).

Amy is showing strongly, a very close to second performance. This from out of nowhere. I think Warren supporters will split to Sanders and Klobuchar, maybe more towards Klobuchar.

I’m thinking Klobuchar - Abrams ‘20.
 
I think a lot of both Yang and Warren supporters are going to shift to Bernie. Bernie won Iowa. He's going to win New Hampshire. He's the favourite to win the whole thing. Question remains, what do the Clintoncrats do once Bernie takes the nomination of the party that they have held control of for decades?
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
I think a lot of both Yang and Warren supporters are going to shift to Bernie. Bernie won Iowa. He's going to win New Hampshire. He's the favourite to win the whole thing. Question remains, what do the Clintoncrats do once Bernie takes the nomination of the party that they have held control of for decades?
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Oh, don't count the chickens before they squawk. If Bernie starts honestly looking like the candidate, powerful alliances will mount to knock him out of the Super Tuesday conversation with unending torrents of cash. Nothing motivates the sleeping Plutocracy like paranoid fear of a commie in the White House.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Derec said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
For Biden and Warren, not getting at least third will basically be the end of the campaign. They might not drop out after NH, they might wait until Super Tuesday, but if they don't make third they are effectively over.
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I think that is very accurate for Klob and Warren. Third or bust. But Biden can survive because he has SC, a state where he has been leading. Neither Warren nor Klob have that kind of hope in the two remaining early states.
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Klobuchar needs second or extremely close to second to make up her big national deficit.
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Yea, but she has a lot of momentum.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Klobuchar needs second or extremely close to second to make up her big national deficit.
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Yea, but she has a lot of momentum.
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A weak showing would have ended that. But she got a strong finish in NH and is making with Nevada. She is the experienced Buttigieg candidate. And hopefully Warren supporters flock to her.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
I think a lot of both Yang and Warren supporters are going to shift to Bernie. Bernie won Iowa. He's going to win New Hampshire. He's the favourite to win the whole thing. Question remains, what do the Clintoncrats do once Bernie takes the nomination of the party that they have held control of for decades?
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Yeah, you also thought Yang was going to stay in the race. Where Yang supporters go will likely be out the door to third parties. Warren supporters will go Sanders and Klobuchar.
 
Politesse said:
Jolly_Penguin said:
I think a lot of both Yang and Warren supporters are going to shift to Bernie. Bernie won Iowa. He's going to win New Hampshire. He's the favourite to win the whole thing. Question remains, what do the Clintoncrats do once Bernie takes the nomination of the party that they have held control of for decades?
Click to expand...

Oh, don't count the chickens before they squawk. If Bernie starts honestly looking like the candidate, powerful alliances will mount to knock him out of the Super Tuesday conversation with unending torrents of cash. Nothing motivates the sleeping Plutocracy like paranoid fear of a commie in the White House.
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In other news, anonymous White House sources chimed in after the primary to say "yeah, sure we're still 'investigating' Joe Biden, but it's not like...the most important thing. By the way, have you heard the latest scandals about Bernie and Mayor Pete? I hear AG Barr is going to be investigating both of them, and not to worry...Rudy is on the case!"
 
Is it too much to hope that Sanders supporters don't get angry tomorrow morning?
 
Politesse said:
Oh, don't count the chickens before they squawk. If Bernie starts honestly looking like the candidate, powerful alliances will mount to knock him out of the Super Tuesday conversation with unending torrents of cash. Nothing motivates the sleeping Plutocracy like paranoid fear of a commie in the White House.
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I agree that DNC wants nothing less than a Sanders nomination. But to effectively counter him, they need to consolidate the moderate lane. Right now you have Buttigieg, Klobuchar surging, Biden still hanging on hoping for being the comeback kid in SC and Bloomberg lying in wait. If all four are still in for Super Tuesday they will just end up taking each other's votes and helping Bernie build a delegate lead. His lane is clear because of the Warren crash and I think she will drop out after Nevada at the latest. I can't see her raising any money after this performance either.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
I’m thinking Klobuchar - Abrams ‘20.
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It's quite premature to predict a Klob nomination from one 5th place and one 3rd place. '
And I don't see Abrams being the running mate for any Dem nominee despite the hype. A failed gubernatorial candidate and other than that only a state rep in a safe urban district. So I don't see it.
And certainly not for Klob - she would pick a man.

Also, Warren is done. I do not see a path for her going forward and I think her fundraising will dry up pretty quickly.
Biden still has the hope of SC, but Warren has no early state she is really strong. She had been leading in Massachusetts, her home state, but those polls are pretty old too. And MA doesn't vote until Super Tuesday.
 
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Electoral politics and blacks are proud to be racially tribal while whites are shamed for it.
 
Trausti said:
Hurrah! Bernie won! 25% in his next-door state. Still good though. I guess.
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Well Thin Lizzy is from a neighboring state, Massachusetts, and she only managed 9%. Far cry from her fellow Massachusite Tsongas.

So Bernie's 26% in a crowded field is more than solid. If he gets top two in Nevada and SC as well, he will be hard to stop. Not that DNC will not try.
 
Derec said:
Trausti said:
Hurrah! Bernie won! 25% in his next-door state. Still good though. I guess.
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Well Thin Lizzy is from a neighboring state, Massachusetts, and she only managed 9%. Far cry from her fellow Massachusite Tsongas.

So Bernie's 26% in a crowded field is more than solid. If he gets top two in Nevada and SC as well, he will be hard to stop. Not that DNC will not try.
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Whoopsie

I don't really care whether its competitive on no. When democratic primary receives twice as many votes as the Republican primary when the Republicans held a Trump rally the night before the election things are not looking good for the Republicans.

As for hype and fear about democratic party nominating someone who can't attract across party lines I have really bad news for you. When one looks at moderate candidates vote versus liberal candidate votes in democratic primary one finds moderates received over 160,000 votes while liberals received less than 100,000 votes. And the liberals were from adjacent states.

Seems to me that glove has been thrown down. Moderates are voting in significantly larger numbers than are liberals. Now when Bloomberg comes online on Super Tuesday moderates will assume control of democratic nomination.

Oh yes and democrats have superdelegates which tend very much to be moderate. Things are looking good for democratic modratewing this year.

Taking off rose colored glasses and looking for liberal arguments that make sense.
 
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