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"Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

We don't know the covid numbers to anything close to the individual number. It's just a typical case of spurious accuracy.

When worldometers declare 12,132 deaths one day and 11,921 the next, it's reasonable to infer that there were about 12,000 deaths each day, and that the number is fairly steady. It's probably more reasonable to say that between 10,000 and 15,000 died on both days.

The idea that the correct number can be known to five significant digits is absurd - but people do love to pretend that statistics are precise.
Very true about statistics. Statistics are very good for indicating averages and trends. Individual measurements such as daily deaths are not giving you the precise value for that point in time. There are simply too many sources of variation happening in the process.

Yup. It's like the high school chemistry student who reports that they added 17g of solute to 14l of solvent, giving a solution with a concentration of 1.2142857g/l. Sure, we all believe that you measured everything to the nearest tenth of a microgram. :rolleyes:
 
More about blood clotting:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-04/r-bca043020.php
"Our novel findings demonstrate that COVID-19 is associated with a unique type of blood clotting disorder that is primarily focussed within the lungs and which undoubtedly contributes to the high levels of mortality being seen in patients with COVID-19," said Professor James O'Donnell, Director of the Irish Centre for Vascular Biology, RCSI and Consultant Haematologist in the National Coagulation Centre in St James's Hospital, Dublin.

"In addition to pneumonia affecting the small air sacs within the lungs, we are also finding hundreds of small blood clots throughout the lungs. This scenario is not seen with other types of lung infection, and explains why blood oxygen levels fall dramatically in severe COVID-19 infection.

"Understanding how these micro-clots are being formed within the lung is critical so that we can develop more effective treatments for our patients, particularly those in high risk groups.
 
China study suggests outdoor transmission of COVID-19 may be rare - SFGate
noting
Indoor transmission of SARS-CoV-2 | medRxiv

I'll quote the article's abstract:
Background: By early April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected nearly one million people and had spread to nearly all countries worldwide. It is essential to understand where and how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted.

Methods: Case reports were extracted from the local Municipal Health Commissions of 320 prefectural cities (municipalities) in China, not including Hubei province, between 4 January and 11 February 2020. We identified all outbreaks involving three or more cases and reviewed the major characteristics of the enclosed spaces in which the outbreaks were reported and associated indoor environmental issues.

Results: Three hundred and eighteen outbreaks with three or more cases were identified, involving 1245 confirmed cases in 120 prefectural cities. We divided the venues in which the outbreaks occurred into six categories: homes, transport, food, entertainment, shopping, and miscellaneous. Among the identified outbreaks, 53.8% involved three cases, 26.4% involved four cases, and only 1.6% involved ten or more cases. Home outbreaks were the dominant category (254 of 318 outbreaks; 79.9%), followed by transport (108; 34.0%; note that many outbreaks involved more than one venue category). Most home outbreaks involved three to five cases. We identified only a single outbreak in an outdoor environment, which involved two cases.

Conclusions: All identified outbreaks of three or more cases occurred in an indoor environment, which confirms that sharing indoor space is a major SARS-CoV-2 infection risk.
Out of 318 identified outbreaks, only one occurred in an outdoor environment, and that one involved only 2 cases.

I think that this is a major breakthrough in the epidemiology of the disease. It may also explain why flu is more common in winter months than in summer months. It's because in summer months, people are out in the open much more, and the disease gets transmitted much less easily.

It also points to which economic activities are relatively safe and which are not -- outdoor > indoor.

Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter: "New: Study of 318 outbreaks in China found transmission occurred out-of-doors in only one, involving just 2 cases. Most occurred in home or public transport. Raises key chance for states to move services outdoors (religious, gym classes, restaurants, etc). [url]https://t.co/Isg5DGxRWa https://t.co/Z5n1b52h8V" / Twitter[/url]
His tweet showed a restaurant with outdoor seating.
then
David States on Twitter: "This is a really key point. Avg wind speed in the US is ~6.5 M/sec. Indoor air exchange takes 5 to 10 minutes in most buildings. The risk of aerosol/droplet exposure is vastly greater indoors than out https://t.co/aqrk9k7V2o" / Twitter
 
Stay at home, morans on Twitter: "@Plubius5 @Zigmanfreud @ScottGottliebMD Might want to look at what's happening in Ecuador, Brazil, and Indonesia" / Twitter

Plubius on Twitter: "@WhiskeyFDC @Zigmanfreud @ScottGottliebMD Densely populated, poor air quality, diet, medicine, corrupt govts ...
let me guess Poorly to worse than most places?" / Twitter


John Ziegler on Twitter: "@WhiskeyFDC @Plubius5 @ScottGottliebMD That is pure speculation at this point and there are plenty of other more sensical explanations." / Twitter

Ecuador's death rate soars as fears grow over scale of coronavirus crisis | Ecuador | The Guardian
Mortalities in one province leap from 3,000 to 11,000 in six weeks, with health and mortuary services overwhelmed

New data suggests that Ecuador’s coronavirus toll may be much higher than previously indicated, after figures revealed a massive jump in deaths in the province at the centre of the country’s devastating outbreak.

Since the beginning of March six weeks ago, 10,939 people have died in Guayas province, which includes Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil, according to figures released late on Thursday.

The region would usually see about 3,000 deaths in a six-week period, with the new figures suggesting that the local death rate has almost quadrupled.

Stay at home, morans on Twitter: "@Plubius5 @Zigmanfreud @ScottGottliebMD Yes, with a clear and massive jump in deaths above their normal baseline" / Twitter

Brazilian city of Manaus fighting 'horror movie' pandemic conditions - France 24
Bodies are piling up in refrigerated trucks outside overwhelmed hospitals. Doctors are in short supply. Bulldozers are digging mass graves at cemeteries. And the worst of the pandemic is yet to come.

Welcome to Manaus, the now chaotic and desperate riverside capital of vast Amazonas state as it grapples with the highest coronavirus mortality rate of any such city in Brazil.

The daily death rate here has shot up from 20 or 30 pre-pandemic to 100 a day in a matter of weeks after the city recorded its first case on March 13. And an already weak health care system has simply collapsed.
 
What these researchers found:
Strikingly, only one instance of outdoor transmission — involving two men talking together in the village of Shangqiu, Henan province — was found “among our 7,324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions.”

The study would appear to underline the importance of identifying and segregating infected individuals before they spread the virus to family members, relatives or others with whom they live.

The researchers acknowledged limitations in the report. Only outbreaks in China, where strict intervention measures were imposed, were studied. They also could not pinpoint transmission routes (droplets, aerosol or contacting contaminated surfaces) in the outbreaks.
So outdoors with low density will be relatively safe. Wearing a mask will be a good precaution for cases like that conversation.
 
What these researchers found:
Strikingly, only one instance of outdoor transmission — involving two men talking together in the village of Shangqiu, Henan province — was found “among our 7,324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions.”

The study would appear to underline the importance of identifying and segregating infected individuals before they spread the virus to family members, relatives or others with whom they live.

The researchers acknowledged limitations in the report. Only outbreaks in China, where strict intervention measures were imposed, were studied. They also could not pinpoint transmission routes (droplets, aerosol or contacting contaminated surfaces) in the outbreaks.
So outdoors with low density will be relatively safe. Wearing a mask will be a good precaution for cases like that conversation.

Or people are more likely to have formal or routine meetings indoors, and so are far less likely to be able to provide "sufficient descriptions" of outdoor interactions, which are less likely to be planned or structured.
 
What these researchers found:
Strikingly, only one instance of outdoor transmission — involving two men talking together in the village of Shangqiu, Henan province — was found “among our 7,324 identified cases in China with sufficient descriptions.”

The study would appear to underline the importance of identifying and segregating infected individuals before they spread the virus to family members, relatives or others with whom they live.

The researchers acknowledged limitations in the report. Only outbreaks in China, where strict intervention measures were imposed, were studied. They also could not pinpoint transmission routes (droplets, aerosol or contacting contaminated surfaces) in the outbreaks.
So outdoors with low density will be relatively safe. Wearing a mask will be a good precaution for cases like that conversation.
Two questions, aerosols in windy locations like a beach? Can the wind carry it farther. What about fog? The air is denser, making the aerosol more likely to float?

Construction work would seemingly be a possible avenue to check for outdoor transmission. Maybe not via aerosol, but it is better than probably other ways of checking.
 
Or people are more likely to have formal or routine meetings indoors, and so are far less likely to be able to provide "sufficient descriptions" of outdoor interactions, which are less likely to be planned or structured.

Trying to think of situations where one would have reasonably close, traceable contact outdoors seems to me to be mostly hiking (there's not exactly a lot of hiking territory in most of China, it's too developed), boating (which requires someplace to boat, not exactly that common) or playing on the same team in volleyball or tennis.
 
Or people are more likely to have formal or routine meetings indoors, and so are far less likely to be able to provide "sufficient descriptions" of outdoor interactions, which are less likely to be planned or structured.

Trying to think of situations where one would have reasonably close, traceable contact outdoors seems to me to be mostly hiking (there's not exactly a lot of hiking territory in most of China, it's too developed), boating (which requires someplace to boat, not exactly that common) or playing on the same team in volleyball or tennis.

Football? The one with the ball you play with your foot, not the one that should ne called handegg.
 
Prophylaxis
While there is very limited data (and none specific for COVID-19), the following “cocktail” may have a role in the prevention/mitigation of COVID-19 disease. While there is no high-level evidence that this cocktail is effective; it is cheap, safe and widely available.
• Vitamin C 500 mg BID and Quercetin 250-500 mg BID
• Zinc 75-100 mg/day (acetate, gluconate or picolinate). Zinc lozenges are preferred. After 1 month, reduce the dose to 30-50 mg/day.
• Melatonin (slow release): Begin with 0.3mg and increase as tolerated to 2 mg at night
• Vitamin D3 1000-4000 u/day

Advice from Eastern Virginia Medical School: https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_pub...cine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf
 
Or people are more likely to have formal or routine meetings indoors, and so are far less likely to be able to provide "sufficient descriptions" of outdoor interactions, which are less likely to be planned or structured.

Trying to think of situations where one would have reasonably close, traceable contact outdoors seems to me to be mostly hiking (there's not exactly a lot of hiking territory in most of China, it's too developed), boating (which requires someplace to boat, not exactly that common) or playing on the same team in volleyball or tennis.

Football? The one with the ball you play with your foot, not the one that should ne called handegg.

Good point, although I've never seen anyone playing it over there.
 
Prophylaxis
While there is very limited data (and none specific for COVID-19), the following “cocktail” may have a role in the prevention/mitigation of COVID-19 disease. While there is no high-level evidence that this cocktail is effective; it is cheap, safe and widely available.
• Vitamin C 500 mg BID and Quercetin 250-500 mg BID
• Zinc 75-100 mg/day (acetate, gluconate or picolinate). Zinc lozenges are preferred. After 1 month, reduce the dose to 30-50 mg/day.
• Melatonin (slow release): Begin with 0.3mg and increase as tolerated to 2 mg at night
• Vitamin D3 1000-4000 u/day

Advice from Eastern Virginia Medical School: https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_pub...cine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf

This is probably fairly harmless.

It also probably isn't effective.

It's no better than any other placebo. It makes the patient feel like something is being done; and better still, it makes the doctors and dispensers feel like they can do something other than cross their fingers.

There's medication that has been demonstrated to work, and medication that you shouldn't take (outside the context of a well managed clinical trial). There are no other categories of medication, and this falls into the latter. Unless you are recruiting people for a clinical trial of this regime, it is morally dubious for you to promote it at all; If you are a medical professional, then it's certainly unethical for you to do so, and if you are not, then nobody should be listening to you.
 
Prophylaxis
While there is very limited data (and none specific for COVID-19), the following “cocktail” may have a role in the prevention/mitigation of COVID-19 disease. While there is no high-level evidence that this cocktail is effective; it is cheap, safe and widely available.
• Vitamin C 500 mg BID and Quercetin 250-500 mg BID
• Zinc 75-100 mg/day (acetate, gluconate or picolinate). Zinc lozenges are preferred. After 1 month, reduce the dose to 30-50 mg/day.
• Melatonin (slow release): Begin with 0.3mg and increase as tolerated to 2 mg at night
• Vitamin D3 1000-4000 u/day

Advice from Eastern Virginia Medical School: https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_pub...cine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf

This is probably fairly harmless.

It also probably isn't effective.

It's no better than any other placebo. It makes the patient feel like something is being done; and better still, it makes the doctors and dispensers feel like they can do something other than cross their fingers.

There's medication that has been demonstrated to work, and medication that you shouldn't take (outside the context of a well managed clinical trial). There are no other categories of medication, and this falls into the latter. Unless you are recruiting people for a clinical trial of this regime, it is morally dubious for you to promote it at all; If you are a medical professional, then it's certainly unethical for you to do so, and if you are not, then nobody should be listening to you.

Ah, but your local homeopath is probably on it.... :D
https://www.homeopathyusa.org/

American Institute of Homeopathy Launches Comprehensive Database of COVID-19 Cases

The American Institute of Homeopathy (AIH) has launched an ambitious effort to collect COVID-19 cases (homeopathic) from around the world. This project is part of a larger collaborative effort with homeopathic colleagues around the world. We will be issuing reports on findings from the data at least weekly for the forseeable future. The database can only be accessed by practitioners with the security clearance to do so.

Interesting that a security clearance is required to see what they are doing.
 
Ah, but your local homeopath is probably on it.... :D
https://www.homeopathyusa.org/

American Institute of Homeopathy Launches Comprehensive Database of COVID-19 Cases

The American Institute of Homeopathy (AIH) has launched an ambitious effort to collect COVID-19 cases (homeopathic) from around the world. This project is part of a larger collaborative effort with homeopathic colleagues around the world. We will be issuing reports on findings from the data at least weekly for the forseeable future. The database can only be accessed by practitioners with the security clearance to do so.

Interesting that a security clearance is required to see what they are doing.
I presume they'll be watering down some hydroxychloroquine and then doing some double blinds.
 
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