Polls of the Presidential Race

[ideologyhunter]

The South Lawn must now be presumed to be a covid hot spot and Trump a vector. Honestly, in most of America you can't have that size of public gathering, but that sort of 'legalism' is what the Pres wipes his bum with.
I could be way wrong, because I have never understood this repellent man's cult, but I saw nothing in their convention that wasn't pitched to the shrill idiocy of the fan base.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

...
It’s hard to imagine how anyone could’ve had their mind changed by the extended Zoom meeting that was the DNC, but the RNC is changing hearts and minds – or at least some.

Changing hearts and minds? If there is one this the Trump base isn't using, it's the heart... and brain.

 

[Trausti]

...
It’s hard to imagine how anyone could’ve had their mind changed by the extended Zoom meeting that was the DNC, but the RNC is changing hearts and minds – or at least some.

Changing hearts and minds? If there is one this the Trump base isn't using, it's the heart... and brain.

Ironically, it's your very condensation and insult which is a motivator for people to vote for Trump. Keep it up, I guess.

 

[Elixir]

Ironically, it's your very condensation and insult which is a motivator for people to vote for Trump. Keep it up, I guess.

Yeah, that condensation is a real bummer. You probably need to dry out.

 

[Treedbear]

...
It’s hard to imagine how anyone could’ve had their mind changed by the extended Zoom meeting that was the DNC, but the RNC is changing hearts and minds – or at least some.

Changing hearts and minds? If there is one this the Trump base isn't using, it's the heart... and brain.

Ironically, it's your very condensation and insult which is a motivator for people to vote for Trump. Keep it up, I guess.

Spurred on by Trump himself knowing his mindless followers will obey him:

President Trump arrived at the Republican National Convention in Charlotte to the chant by delegates of “Four more years!”

Said Trump: “Now, if you really want to drive them crazy, you say 12 more years.”

The crowd began chanting: “12 more years!”

But it says less about the Trump's detractors and more about his supporters and how far they can be pushed to compromise on their principles.

 

[Trausti]

Ironically, it's your very condensation and insult which is a motivator for people to vote for Trump. Keep it up, I guess.

Yeah, that condensation is a real bummer. You probably need to dry out.

Biden voters vs. Trump voters. This is an easy choice.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nieto_phillip/status/1299207662043828224

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538
Biden is up over Trump by +9.1%. Not much of a convention bump for Trumpo.

66 days until election day.

 

[Elixir]

538
Biden is up over Trump by +9.1%. Not much of a convention bump for Trumpo.

66 days until election day.

You sound a little complacent...
All Trump needs to do is to propagandize or cheat in a few key counties in a few key states, and convince his base that the election was rigged if that doesn't give him the electoral victory.
I am sensing a willingness on the part of his followers as well as some fence-sitters, to accept a new form of government - dictatorship or similar autocracy. Trump has made the "current system" (the one he is trying his best to break) so unappealing and confusing to the average voter, that they actually prefer something they can understand; one guy is the boss and that's that. Most Americans have little or no understanding of how this government works, and certainly no concept of what the founders intended for it or why. All this "balance of powers" shit just makes their heads hurt. Their perception is that there are more laws than you can shake a stick at, it takes forever to resolve legal disputes, everyone in government fights everyone else and nothing gets done. Plus, the rich guys always win so why not just let them take it all without putting up with a big hassle?

This election isn't going to be a landslide, IMHO.
This country is ripe for a takeover.

 

[Elixir]

Ironically, it's your very condensation and insult which is a motivator for people to vote for Trump. Keep it up, I guess.

Yeah, that condensation is a real bummer. You probably need to dry out.

Biden voters vs. Trump voters. This is an easy choice.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nieto_phillip/status/1299207662043828224

So compelling... lol!

View attachment 29142

View attachment 29143

 

[Trausti]

Biden voters vs. Trump voters. This is an easy choice.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nieto_phillip/status/1299207662043828224

So compelling... lol!

View attachment 29142

View attachment 29143

Well, you messed up the picture post. Do it again. (Don't use the attach function, just the url link.) And, yes, compelling. Easy choice.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I got a bit worried a few days ago when it looked like Trump was gaining on Biden, but a week later, Biden is back up again on Orango. It is obvious now that a lot of voters are not going to be coming out for the orange buffoon. In 2016, a lot of people were angry and took it out on Clinton. But now a lot of ex-Trump voters are angry and Trump and are going to take it out on him. I am not complacent at all. But I am hopeful. It is just a matter of how big Trump's defeat will be and how big this election cycle's blue wave will be.

Trump has been counting on harsh rhetoric to get his base in a mean, nasty, hateful mood. But that is a double edged sword. 65 days to go. Mass evictions are about to start while Moscow Mitch and Trumpo twiddle their thumbs.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Hardly. Even in a First-past-the-post, your candidate would have to do something to make me want to vote for him. And you would have to assume that my vote would be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state.

Not being a serial sexual predator and career Mob Boss who is fucking away American power and money, torturing children, causing tens of thousands of American deaths, promoting racism, undermining elections and flouting all laws - that should suffice for a rational person.

1. I cannot tell which of the two you are talking about.
2. This is important - pay attention - you have given me a reason to vote against one (both) of them. You have not given me a reason to vote for either of them. You give me negative reasons, when I asked for positive reasons. There are plenty of choices on the ballot, even if you want to limit it to two of them. I can easily find one that gives me positive reasons. When I vote for one of the ones who gives me positive reasons, I am not voting for the person you described.

The only way your stand that it has to be one of the two could possibly make sense is if you actually think that my individual vote will be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state. Do you actually honestly think that?



Forest Gump had you pegged.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Hardly. Even in a First-past-the-post, your candidate would have to do something to make me want to vote for him. And you would have to assume that my vote would be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state.

Not being a serial sexual predator and career Mob Boss who is fucking away American power and money, torturing children, causing tens of thousands of American deaths, promoting racism, undermining elections and flouting all laws - that should suffice for a rational person.

1. I cannot tell which of the two you are talking about.
2. This is important - pay attention - you have given me a reason to vote against one (both) of them. You have not given me a reason to vote for either of them. You give me negative reasons, when I asked for positive reasons. There are plenty of choices on the ballot, even if you want to limit it to two of them. I can easily find one that gives me positive reasons. When I vote for one of the ones who gives me positive reasons, I am not voting for the person you described.

The only way your stand that it has to be one of the two could possibly make sense is if you actually think that my individual vote will be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state. Do you actually honestly think that?



Forest Gump had you pegged.

With respect (second time I've used this phrase today!): if someone can't be convinced to vote for a guy who would preserve abortion rights, fight for the environment, better protect SSN and medicare, enact reasonable measures to fight covid, protecting DACA, and etc: I can't help you.

Hell the fact that Biden, who supports environmental regulation and diplomacy to tackle climate change, against Trump, who is determined to dismantle such policies: is easily enough for me.

 

[Elixir]

Not being a serial sexual predator and career Mob Boss who is fucking away American power and money, torturing children, causing tens of thousands of American deaths, promoting racism, undermining elections and flouting all laws - that should suffice for a rational person.

1. I cannot tell which of the two you are talking about.

That level of uninformedness and stupidity is how we allowed Cheato to be installed in the first place.

if someone can't be convinced to vote for a guy who would preserve abortion rights, fight for the environment, better protect SSN and medicare, enact reasonable measures to fight covid, protecting DACA, and etc: I can't help you.

He can't tell which of the two you are talking about

... with respect, of course.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

With respect (second time I've used this phrase today!): if someone can't be convinced to vote for a guy who would preserve abortion rights, fight for the environment, better protect SSN and medicare, enact reasonable measures to fight covid, protecting DACA, and etc: I can't help you.

Okay, three positive reasons.

1. Preserve abortion rights - several candidates have that.
2. Fight for the environment - although we agree this is important we disagree severely on how to do this. I found a candidate that I think does this, do you actually think your candidate does this?
3. Protect SSN and medicare - well, you consider that positive
4. Enact reasonable measure to fight covid - your candidate is going to end all this mask and shutdown nonsense? Seriously?
5. Protecting DACA - that's a big issue to some people.

You forgot one.

WAR and other foreign policy. Perhaps because you know your candidate fails on my biggest selling point.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Hardly. Even in a First-past-the-post, your candidate would have to do something to make me want to vote for him. And you would have to assume that my vote would be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state.

Not being a serial sexual predator and career Mob Boss who is fucking away American power and money, torturing children, causing tens of thousands of American deaths, promoting racism, undermining elections and flouting all laws - that should suffice for a rational person.

1. I cannot tell which of the two you are talking about.
2. This is important - pay attention - you have given me a reason to vote against one (both) of them. You have not given me a reason to vote for either of them. You give me negative reasons, when I asked for positive reasons. There are plenty of choices on the ballot, even if you want to limit it to two of them. I can easily find one that gives me positive reasons. When I vote for one of the ones who gives me positive reasons, I am not voting for the person you described.

The only way your stand that it has to be one of the two could possibly make sense is if you actually think that my individual vote will be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state. Do you actually honestly think that?



Forest Gump had you pegged.

That level of uninformedness and stupidity is how we allowed Cheato to be installed in the first place.

So you admit you cannot give me a positive reason to support your fascist over the other fascist? All you can do is tell me the other guy is bad? The whole reason you support Trump is because of how bad you think Biden is? And you want to convince me on that basis when there are good candidates on the ballot AND you somehow think that my individual vote will be the tie-breaker vote in a tie-breaker district in a tie-breaker state.

 

[Swammerdami]

Call me Cassandra, but there is cause for great concern. We didn't heed the warning signs in 2016; let us do not make the same mistake.

... Prediction markets can be used as a quick and surprisingly accurate summary of trends. The picture painted at Betfair.com is a little disturbing:

On July 17, the chances for November winner inferred from Betfair were
Biden 60.4%
Trump 34.6%

This was up sharply from May, when Trump was still in the lead.

However, Trump has risen over the past month:
August 17
Biden 56.7%
Trump 41.2%
Harris 1.1%

$76 million has been wagered just on this one Betfair market, enough to make the result useful as a predictor.

Seven days later (and with $80.3 million wagered), we see Trump continuing to rise. Did the D's get too small a "bump" from their convention?
Biden 55.1%
Trump 42.9%
Harris 0.8%

And now, less than six days later (and with $89+ million wagered) the election is essentially a 50-50 coin toss according to BetFair punters:

Biden (incl. Harris) 52.0%.
Trump (incl. Pence) 47.2%.

(If this seems incompatible with present polling, recall that many who respond to polls will be presented with obstacles to voting, whether in-person or by-mail.)

 

[ideologyhunter]

Call me Cassandra,

You're no Cassandra. Trump lost the popular vote in '16 by more votes than the total votes cast in Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Add another 300,000 votes to that, and you're looking at Hillary's "victory" margin. That's the mess our Founding Fathers left us, with this Electoral College disaster. Will of the people be damned. Trump's team thinks he can do it again if they pull every string, including the bizarre Kanye tactic. Of course they'll cripple the post office as much as they can. They'll try to scare the bejesus out of every Caucasian of my generation. Trump's lunatic announcement that "the only way they can take this away from us is to rig the election" tells us that he will never concede, no matter how the vote comes out. He and his enablers will pull every loose nail out of democracy's superstructure -- which is looking frail after the abuse it's suffered for four years. If he prevails, we are in a world of hurt.

 

[Elixir]

From FB... a rare gem:

My biggest issue with Trump is probably the fact that he has had no prior political experience, went bankrupt 6 times and has many failed businesses, paid off a porn star to keep quiet, has over 24 harassment allegations, has had 2 articles of impeachment drafted against him, illegally contacted Ukraine to help him win re-election, has the most hours of golfing over any president, has done nothing to help our dying climate, botched the coronavirus response because he called it a hoax by the democrats instead of acting quicker, has never had an approval rating of over 45 percent, the whole Central Park 5 incident, thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax, told POC to go back to where they came from, throws meltdowns on Twitter, constantly retweets himself agreeing with himself, has had tweets flagged for misinformation, signed an executive bill regarding Twitter after his feelings got hurt, has increased our debt, hasn’t pulled out of any wars, adbandoned the Kurds, is really fat with a spray tan, has US pride at an all time low, has 10 cases of obstruction of justice per the mueller report, used George Floyd as an excuse to brag about job numbers, wanted to use violence against peaceful protestors, has done nothing to solve the wealth gap or poverty rate, has increased our debt, is fat and has an ugly spray tan, said he would date his own daughter, talked about fake treatments during a corona press conference, used to be an anti vaxxer, violated an official weather map with a fucking sharpie, all the shit in john Bolton’s book, said that cases would disappear if testing stopped, has a Vice President that can’t say “black lives matter” only “all lives matter”, falsely claimed there’s an AIDS vaccine, loves himself but has little empathy for others, is a complete asshole to reporters, made fun of someone disabled, the “grab by the pussy” thing, wanted to nuke a hurricane, thinks windmills cause cancer, has told over 19,000 false claims, talked more about him on a ramp than George Floyd, wants burning the flag to be a crime, called the coronavirus the kung flu, and has done nothing to help the average American.
Also the fact that he’s a lying, unqualified, draft dodging, gold star family disrespecting, POW attacking, US General insulting, racist, sexist, vulgar, confirmed sexual assaulting, trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, own daughter creeping, wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, $413 million dollar inheritance getting, teen pageant dressing room invading, baby and mother separating, breast feeding mother shaming, fat-shaming while being fat, 17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, university student defrauding, bankrupt casino causing, kids cancer charity stealing, taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, wife-beating, popular vote losing, anti-vaxxing, Christianity-faking, publicist impersonating, tax dodging, friends’ wives pursuing, impeached, foreign aid bribing, 1/3 of the presidency golf playing, free press assaulting, Hannity coordinating, Cambridge Analytica using, Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, loan application asset inflating, historically low polling, college achievement faking, unqualified judge appointing, unqualified cabinet member appointing, foreign influence on our election welcoming, tax release avoiding, birther conspiracy spreading, Ukraine ambassador targeting, Russian money taking, Kurdish ally abandoning, soldier brain injury downplaying, full morning “executive time” taking, Epstein befriending, Putin bowing, Kim Jong Un praising, North Korean general saluting, US intelligence denying, tallest building in lower Manhattan after 9/11 boasting, congress obstructing, nuclear non-proliferation deal ending, Justice obstructing, unqualified daughter and son-in-law appointing, healthcare cut targeting, pedophile candidate supporting, trump tower Moscow denying, mail-bomber inspiring, 4 out of top 5 largest protests in US history causing, green energy stifling, clean water regulation destroying, healthy school lunch ending, climate change denying, congressional and judicial branch attacking, economy does better under democrats saying, Goldman Sachs appointing, food stamp removing, emissions standards lowering, press conference avoiding, emoluments clause breaking, longest govt shutdown record holding, Saudi Arabia nuclear tech selling, golf cheating, time magazine cover faking, El Paso mass shooter inspiring, paying legal bills for roughing up protestors promising, killed soldier “knew what he signed up for” saying, pardon abusing, scumbag.
Sources:​

• ⁠lying, https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...as-made-false-or-misleading-claims-over-days/
• ⁠unqualified, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/11/13587532/donald-trump-no-experience
• ⁠draft dodging, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...p-vietnam-war-bone-spur-diagnosis/2420475002/
• ⁠gold star family disrespecting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-khizr-khan-wife-ghazala.html
• ⁠POW attacking, https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...t-at-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured
• ⁠US General insulting, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...ch-of-dopes-and-babies-according-to-new-book/
• ⁠racist, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/06/trump-racism-comments/588067/
• ⁠sexist, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50563106
• ⁠vulgar, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
• ⁠confirmed sexual assaulting, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/us/donald-trump-tape-transcript.html
• ⁠trillion dollars to the rich tax cutting, https://budget.house.gov/publicatio...benefits-wealthy-and-large-corporations-while
• ⁠own daughter creeping, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...t-unsettling-comments-a-roundup-a7353876.html
• ⁠wife cheating with a pornstar after birth of son and paying her off to influence a presidential election, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43334326
• ⁠$413 million dollar inheritance getting, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...son-donald-will-that-change-american-opinion/
• ⁠teen pageant dressing room invading, https://www.politifact.com/wisconsi...tions-about-donald-trump-and-miss-teen-usa-c/
• ⁠baby and mother separating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/14/the-weekly/trump-immigration-border-separation-family.html
• ⁠breast feeding mother shaming, https://www.parents.com/baby/all-ab...-trump-called-a-breastfeeding-mom-disgusting/
• ⁠fat-shaming while being fat, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019...pporter-frank-dawson-new-hampshire-rally.html
• ⁠17 women accusing him of sexual assaulting, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/list-trumps-accusers-allegations-sexual-misconduct/story?id=51956410
• ⁠accusers are not attractive enough for him to assault implying, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/donald-trump-insults-accusers-ugly
• ⁠university student defrauding, https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-fin...ement-victims-donald-trumps/story?id=54347237
• ⁠bankrupt casino causing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-trump-declared-bankruptcy-four-or-six-times/
• ⁠kids cancer charity stealing, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danale...-kids-cancer-charity-money-into-his-business/
• ⁠taped detailed accusation of rape of a minor having, https://www.snopes.com/news/2016/06/23/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit/
• ⁠wife-beating, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/24/documenting-trumps-abuse-of-women
• ⁠popular vote losing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...n-us-election-president-history-a7470116.html
• ⁠anti-vaxxing, https://mobile.twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/449525268529815552?lang=en
• ⁠Christianity-faking, https://www.kentucky.com/opinion/op-ed/article216494035.html
• ⁠publicist impersonating, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ld-trump-people-magazine-washington/84333614/
• ⁠tax dodging, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...d-trump-tax-evasion-fred-trump-new-york-times
• ⁠friends’ wives pursuing, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ff-fire-fury-white-house-bannon-a8142011.html
• ⁠impeached, https://time.com/5552679/impeached-presidents/
• ⁠foreign aid bribing, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181
• ⁠1/3 of the presidency golf playing, https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...sident-trumps-visited-trump-branded-property/
• ⁠free press assaulting, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...4/donald-trump-twitter-media-enemy-pittsburgh
• ⁠Hannity coordinating, https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/emmaloop/sean-hannity-trump-allies-mueller-memos-fox-news
• ⁠Cambridge Analytica using, https://www.wired.com/story/what-did-cambridge-analytica-really-do-for-trumps-campaign/
• ⁠Ivanka is a “piece of ass” approving, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-ivanka-piece-of-ass-howard-stern-229376
• ⁠loan application asset inflating, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/business/donald-trump-buffalo-bills-deutsche-bank.html
• ⁠historically low polling, https://theweek.com/speedreads/8906...est-ever-among-independents-gallup-poll-shows
• ⁠college achievement faking, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christ...want-anyone-to-know-his-grades-or-sat-scores/
• ⁠unqualified judge appointing, https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-la...cted-for-another-unqualified-trump-judge-pick
• ⁠unqualified cabinet member appointing, https://www.latimes.com/local/education/la-me-eli-broad-opposes-devos-20170201-story.html

...But not as bad as Bush?

 

[Swammerdami]

I noticed this post because it was at the top of the page.

Groper hasn't really climbed out of his basement yet. When he does emerge and people have a better look at the creep, those who are thinking of voting for him and Camel[a] ...

@ angelo — Question: Do you have trouble remembering how to spell Kamala's name? Are you a Trump supporter and are imitating your idol?

Or do you think misspelling her name provides useful insight, or negates her opinions? Should we call you Anne Jello to reflect our assessment of your intellectual strengths?