Polls of the Presidential Race

[Cheerful Charlie]

538
In Florida today, Biden is ahead by +2.0%. But has a 48.9%, near the magic 50% mark.
Nationally Biden is up +9.2%. Biden is leading with 51.9% of the total vote.
The only real big change I see is Arizona where Trump has cut Biden's lead to +3.0% Biden is at 48.8%.

5 days to go, then the screaming starts.

 

[Gospel]

A few things to consider 2016 verse 2020 for those concerned about a repeat.

In 2016 - Nobody took Trump Seriously/They do now
In 2016 - Independents didn't like Hillary/They like Biden
in 2016 - Trump was an outsider/He's an insider now
In 2016 - Hillary ran (mostly) on credentials/Biden runs (mostly) on policy
In 2016 - No one knew what Trump would do/They still don't

 

[Harry Bosch]

A few things to consider 2016 verse 2020 for those concerned about a repeat.

In 2016 - Nobody took Trump Seriously/They do now
In 2016 - Independents didn't like Hillary/They like Biden
in 2016 - Trump was an outsider/He's an insider now
In 2016 - Hillary ran (mostly) on credentials/Biden runs (mostly) on policy
In 2016 - No one knew what Trump would do/They still don't

Good point. I'd also say that independents were a little stronger then (remember the crystal lady!). Bernie Bros were also louder (although I don't blame Bernie for that). Having said that, I'm still worried that 2020 will be a repeat of 2016!

 

[Gospel]

I'll also like to add that the Supreme Court pick (withheld from Obama) played a role in getting conservatives off the fence. This time those conservatives already have Amy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Texas is over 85% of their 2016 vote total in early voting! Most of which is in-person voting. Trump losing Texas wouldn't be the first thing I'd expect in this election... nor the 43rd. But, who knows. Trump has done a lot to anger Hispanics in Texas and the Southwest. With so many being in-person, those votes will tally quickly. Needless to say, Trump losing Texas would less make it a harder road to victory and more make it an embarrassing failure. Imagine Trump pulling off AZ, PA, MI, and WI... but losing Texas and the election!

I don't think that'd be possible, but being Texas, it would be such a 2020 end. Of course, the other way is Trump loses Texas, but phucks his way in the courts to win all the other battlegrounds. He'd have to win AZ and VA or AZ and CO, in addition to the Blue Wall states "within reach" to win.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The wagering site Betfair.com takes bets on the Presidential election state-by-state.
Here are their derived odds of Dems winning the state; 1st number is from 11 October; 2nd from 19 Oct; 3rd from 28 Oct.

TX 27.6% 24 26.0
OH 43.5% 35 31.8
IA 40.8% - 42.2
GA 44.0% 42 42.3
FL 57.3% 51 45.6
NC 54.1% 53 52.1
AZ 60.2% 59 56.0
PA 74.7% 70 67.1
WI 76.1% 70 70.3
NV 74.7% 70 73.2
MI 79.5% 72 73.7
MN 81.7% 75 78.1
NH 79.5% 80 79.5
VA 92.7% 93 92.4

Biden has gained ground in some states, but has lost quite a bit in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. (I wonder if riots in Philly play a role.)

Ohio, Florida, Iowa have never been solidly in Biden's column. Meanwhile, Biden is polling 50+ in PA. Arizona is odd, as Biden is more likely to win in Arizona because of Kelly than the other way around. Also, the demographics out there are not Trump friendly. If Hispanics swing harder to the left, there is little maneuvering room for Trump.

If Biden wins all the states shown as 70% chance or higher, he'll also want PA for the victory. (In that case he still wins without one of the little states [NV or NH] but can't lose both.)

These numbers are meaningless. Look at the actual polls and set a cutoff.

If Biden gets AZ instead of PA, he'll need Omaha and rural Maine to win; or just one of those single-EV districts to tie. A 269-269 split is still a real possibility.

It is, But PA is no where near as close in the polls as they were in 2016. In a Muhlenberg College poll, Clinton was up 45 to 39, with Johnson at 8. That means 16% were Lib or undecided! PPP has Biden at 51 to 46, which leaves 3% left.

Polls mean nothing in the end, but the hindsight says the polls underweighted stupid in 2016... as 16% of those polled either had the Libertarian or no one selected, meaning there was a large unknown and that Clinton wasn't winning at all. Stupid then went hard for Trump. The polls in 2020 say Biden is leading with >50%. Trump has gradually tightened it, but not at the expense of Biden's 50% polling number. .

 

[Harry Bosch]

Texas is over 85% of their 2016 vote total in early voting! Most of which is in-person voting. Trump losing Texas wouldn't be the first thing I'd expect in this election... nor the 43rd. But, who knows. Trump has done a lot to anger Hispanics in Texas and the Southwest. With so many being in-person, those votes will tally quickly. Needless to say, Trump losing Texas would less make it a harder road to victory and more make it an embarrassing failure. Imagine Trump pulling off AZ, PA, MI, and WI... but losing Texas and the election!

I don't think that'd be possible, but being Texas, it would be such a 2020 end. Of course, the other way is Trump loses Texas, but phucks his way in the courts to win all the other battlegrounds. He'd have to win AZ and VA or AZ and CO, in addition to the Blue Wall states "within reach" to win.

View attachment 29974

It's very scary to count on Texas to go democratic. I'd feel better about Florida or Ohio.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Texas is over 85% of their 2016 vote total in early voting! Most of which is in-person voting. Trump losing Texas wouldn't be the first thing I'd expect in this election... nor the 43rd. But, who knows. Trump has done a lot to anger Hispanics in Texas and the Southwest. With so many being in-person, those votes will tally quickly. Needless to say, Trump losing Texas would less make it a harder road to victory and more make it an embarrassing failure. Imagine Trump pulling off AZ, PA, MI, and WI... but losing Texas and the election!

I don't think that'd be possible, but being Texas, it would be such a 2020 end. Of course, the other way is Trump loses Texas, but phucks his way in the courts to win all the other battlegrounds. He'd have to win AZ and VA or AZ and CO, in addition to the Blue Wall states "within reach" to win.

It's very scary to count on Texas to go democratic. I'd feel better about Florida or Ohio.

We aren't counting on Texas. That map above would seemingly be impossible to occur in reality. A Texas swing would almost assuredly include WI, MI, and likely AZ... with PA behind them. FL, OH, NC, and IA would follow. I still feel, with NH polling so high, that PA has to go Biden.

Looking at Arizona, 1.8 million ballots have been submitted. 2.6 million voted in 2016! Arizona will easily out vote 2016, for a turnout of nearing 80% it seems.

 

[southernhybrid]

Biden is currently up 17 points in Wisconsin so I seriously doubt that state is going to Trump. Georgia. has a better chance of going to Biden than Texas does. Biden has been tied or up about 2 percent in Georgia for weeks. Biden has a fairly healthy lead in Michigan too. I'm still far more worried about the attempts by the Repugs to throw out ballots, or insist that electors in red states vote for Trump, regardless of who actually won the popular vote. In other words, it's the Republicans who are trying to rig the election, not the Democrats. Hopefully, I'm being overly anxious about this, but our system is insane and we've never had a president as corrupt as Trump.

Another concern is the enormous amount of disinformation put out by Trump and company. Too many people are gullible enough to belief the constant lies that Trump and his cronies put out constantly.

 

[Elixir]

Biden is currently up 17 points in Wisconsin so I seriously doubt that state is going to Trump. Georgia. has a better chance of going to Biden than Texas does. Biden has been tied or up about 2 percent in Georgia for weeks. Biden has a fairly healthy lead in Michigan too. I'm still far more worried about the attempts by the Repugs to throw out ballots, or insist that electors in red states vote for Trump, regardless of who actually won the popular vote. In other words, it's the Republicans who are trying to rig the election, not the Democrats. Hopefully, I'm being overly anxious about this, but our system is insane and we've never had a president as corrupt as Trump.

Another concern is the enormous amount of disinformation put out by Trump and company. Too many people are gullible enough to belief the constant lies that Trump and his cronies put out constantly.

Yes. Lying and cheating are all that remains of the Republican party. Might be enough to keep them in power, given that their perversion now reaches deep into the judiciary.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Biden is currently up 17 points in Wisconsin so I seriously doubt that state is going to Trump. Georgia. has a better chance of going to Biden than Texas does.

Depends. Blacks need to be both increase their percent share of the vote and they need to be near Obama level 98% to 2% for Biden. Texas... that needs to swing very heavy for Biden among Hispanics, but I'd say there is more room for such a swing, compared to Georgia where we are talking 85 to 10 verses 98 to 2... Hispanics are more like 2 to 1ish, which provides more room for more votes towards Biden. Turnout in Texas is incredible, already about 85% of 2016, as of yesterday.

Biden has been tied or up about 2 percent in Georgia for weeks.

Simply look at Exit Polling in 2016 and 2018 with Clinton and Abrams. That tells you how hard it'll be in Georgia. A 2 pt lead with Biden below 50 means nothing to me. That is well within the margin of error and Georgia has shown purplish poll numbers before, but almost always goes red. Texas, not the same thing, as I think we might be seeing Trump's politics biting him in the ass (or not... and it is a red wave), there are definitely song tea leaves that point to an insane and improbable Biden win.

Biden has a fairly healthy lead in Michigan too. I'm still far more worried about the attempts by the Repugs to throw out ballots, or insist that electors in red states vote for Trump, regardless of who actually won the popular vote. In other words, it's the Republicans who are trying to rig the election, not the Democrats. Hopefully, I'm being overly anxious about this, but our system is insane and we've never had a president as corrupt as Trump.

Exactly! Will the vote matter? If Biden wins in Florida and Ohio on election night... is that it? Do the lawyers start suing this week? On election day? Day after? Winning Texas would be nice because of all the in-person voting. It'd be convenient. Of course, the Trump Admin would say the loss of Texas is proof of a scandal, "of the likes we've never seen before".

 

[lpetrich]

Bloomberg Funds Last-Minute 2020 Election Ad Blitz for Biden in Texas and Ohio - The New York Times - "The billionaire former New York City mayor has concentrated largely on Florida in the general election. But his private polling found President Trump vulnerable in two of the country’s biggest red states."

But Bloomberg's campaigners won't be forgetting Florida, a place where Bloomberg has pledged to spend $100 million.

But other Republicans have been alarmed for many weeks that Texas — the most populous red state in the country — is even competitive. Senator John Cornyn, a Republican up for re-election there, has told allies that the president’s unpopularity is holding down other members of his party in the state.

Mr. Wolfson said the Bloomberg advertising campaign in both states would focus chiefly on the coronavirus, highlighting the new spike in cases across the country under Mr. Trump’s watch. The Texas advertising will include a heavy Spanish-language component.

In Ohio, Independence USA also plans to air advertising about the economy and Mr. Biden’s “build back better” message.

 

[Trausti]

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

 

[southernhybrid]

Depends. Blacks need to be both increase their percent share of the vote and they need to be near Obama level 98% to 2% for Biden. Texas... that needs to swing very heavy for Biden among Hispanics, but I'd say there is more room for such a swing, compared to Georgia where we are talking 85 to 10 verses 98 to 2... Hispanics are more like 2 to 1ish, which provides more room for more votes towards Biden. Turnout in Texas is incredible, already about 85% of 2016, as of yesterday.

Simply look at Exit Polling in 2016 and 2018 with Clinton and Abrams. That tells you how hard it'll be in Georgia. A 2 pt lead with Biden below 50 means nothing to me. That is well within the margin of error and Georgia has shown purplish poll numbers before, but almost always goes red. Texas, not the same thing, as I think we might be seeing Trump's politics biting him in the ass (or not... and it is a red wave), there are definitely song tea leaves that point to an insane and improbable Biden win.

Biden has a fairly healthy lead in Michigan too. I'm still far more worried about the attempts by the Repugs to throw out ballots, or insist that electors in red states vote for Trump, regardless of who actually won the popular vote. In other words, it's the Republicans who are trying to rig the election, not the Democrats. Hopefully, I'm being overly anxious about this, but our system is insane and we've never had a president as corrupt as Trump.

Exactly! Will the vote matter? If Biden wins in Florida and Ohio on election night... is that it? Do the lawyers start suing this week? On election day? Day after? Winning Texas would be nice because of all the in-person voting. It'd be convenient. Of course, the Trump Admin would say the loss of Texas is proof of a scandal, "of the likes we've never seen before".

Georgia has had a massive turnout in early voting as well as mail in ballots. Plus, Georgia is only about 59% white and a lot of us White folks are supporting Biden, especially in the more urban areas. Most of the minority population support Biden as well. This morning a poll came out that had Biden leading Trump by 4 points in Georgia. Of course, these polls could be wrong, but Georgia has been turning back to blue for several years and my hope is that this will be the year that we make it, despite the attempts at voter suppression and disinformation.


https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/georgia-population

According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of Georgia was:

White: 59.04%
Black or African American: 31.46%
Asian: 3.91%
Other race: 2.75%
Two or more races: 2.45%
Native American: 0.33%
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander: 0.06%

 

[cycomiko]

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

sooo......a poll of people that can't vote? is your logic that they'll just poll for whoever they think their parents are voting for?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Georgia has had a massive turnout in early voting as well as mail in ballots. Plus, Georgia is only about 59% white and a lot of us White folks are supporting Biden, especially in the more urban areas. Most of the minority population support Biden as well. This morning a poll came out that had Biden leading Trump by 4 points in Georgia. Of course, these polls could be wrong, but Georgia has been turning back to blue for several years and my hope is that this will be the year that we make it, despite the attempts at voter suppression and disinformation.

I'm all for it... but the math is the math. Whites are 60% and vote 3 to 1 for GOP (in 2018, 2016 it was worse for the Dem about 3.5 to 1), Blacks are 30% and vote 95 to 5 for Dem.

That leads us to
White: .45 GOP to .15 Dem
Black: .01 GOP to .29 Dem

That gives us 46% GOP to 44% Dem and the remaining 10 or so percent sets up the rest. If the remaining minorities vote in a block, then there is trouble. But if Whites vote more than 3 to 1, it becomes extraordinarily hard to overcome the math.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

sooo......a poll of people that can't vote? is your logic that they'll just poll for whoever they think their parents are voting for?

Remember, all the polls are wrong, except a youth poll in Iowa!

For Iowa, I look for Ann Selzer as the exclusive poll that matters.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

sooo......a poll of people that can't vote? is your logic that they'll just poll for whoever they think their parents are voting for?

I remember participating in those votes as a kid, you know, civic duty and all. Without any stake in the outcome I usually voted for the loser because I didn't have a grasp of the issues. It was like voting for the middle school class candidate who promised free candy and extra recess.

 

[Elixir]

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

sooo......a poll of people that can't vote? is your logic that they'll just poll for whoever they think their parents are voting for?

I think a poll of North Koreans would probably yield a similar result. Whatever ya gotta do to make Cheato look like a legit contender.

 

[cycomiko]

Iowa Youth Straw Poll winners include Trump, Ernst

sooo......a poll of people that can't vote? is your logic that they'll just poll for whoever they think their parents are voting for?

I remember participating in those votes as a kid, you know, civic duty and all. Without any stake in the outcome I usually voted for the loser because I didn't have a grasp of the issues. It was like voting for the middle school class candidate who promised free candy and extra recess.

civics lessons must've been totally gone by the time i got to junior high in 1990 or so. i don't recall ever doing such things. of course i was stoned from 1994-2003 so maybe it's just lost in that cloud.