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Polls of the Presidential Race

lpetrich said:
GOP senators, fearing a loss, keep distance from Trump and begin to ponder party's future - CNNPolitics
Publicly and privately, Republicans are now beginning to distance themselves from the President. And the debate over the post-Trump Republican Party is already taking shape, with some eager to emulate his populist style of America-first, slash-and-burn politics -- and others pushing to return to a more moderate, pro-business message to woo disaffected younger voters and women who have been put off by Trump.

While Republicans brace for that debate, several influential Republicans are pleading with Trump to abruptly change his tactics in the final two weeks to zero-in on an economic message, stop downplaying the coronavirus pandemic and to quit launching attacks against his public health experts -- namely Dr. Anthony Fauci.

"I would like to see in the closing days of the campaign him prosecute the argument against the Democrats and the difference in policies," said South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the Republican whip, told CNN. "Stay away from personal attacks. Quit attacking the media. Quit attacking Fauci and focus on issues. ... He's got to stay disciplined to do it, and I think that's how you're going to win over the middle people."
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With a section called "Republican fears Trump's down-ticket impact"

All I can say is: good riddance. They deserve it for toadying up to him and so shamelessly enabling him.
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There's an old saying about laying down with dogs.
 
Opinion | Trump Is Giving Up - The New York Times - "Against both the coronavirus and Joe Biden, the president’s strategy increasingly accepts defeat."

Trump could still win. 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight currently gives him a 13% chance of winning. But a Trump victory at this point would be an Electoral College squeaker of a victory.

Though Trump had a coherent message back in 2016, he doesn't seem to have one this time around.
In 2020, on the other hand, the Trump campaign has been stuck toggling back and forth between two very different narratives. One seeks to replay the last campaign, portraying Joe Biden as the embodiment of a failed establishment (hence all the references to his 47 years in Washington) who will sell out American interests to China as soon as he’s back in power (hence the attempts to elevate Hunter Biden’s influence-peddling).

But the other narrative goes after Biden as though the Democrats had actually nominated Bernie Sanders, insisting that his advancing age makes him a decrepit vessel for the radical left, a stalking horse not just for Kamala Harris but also for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and antifa.

A truly brilliant campaigner might be able to weave these two narratives together, but on the lips of Donald Trump their contradictions are evident. The resulting incoherence just feeds his tendency to return to old grudges and very online grievances, as though he’s running for the presidency of talk radio or his own Twitter feed.
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Sickening poll on MSNBC 5 min. ago: 50% of Trump supporters believe the claims of Q-Anon. Jesus, this won't go away fast.
Sidebar: 5% of Biden supporters believe!!!! Those are the people I'd like to hear from. Can't even imagine how they'd explain.
 
ideologyhunter said:
Sickening poll on MSNBC 5 min. ago: 50% of Trump supporters believe the claims of Q-Anon. Jesus, this won't go away fast.
Sidebar: 5% of Biden supporters believe!!!! Those are the people I'd like to hear from. Can't even imagine how they'd explain.
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The left-side of the spectrum has nuts, the conspiracy people that are all about homeopathic medicine, super against GMO, etc.. So I can see the allure to them of QAnon. That 50% support for Trump sounds off. I doubt 50% of total Trump voters really know what QAnon is. Of the small number of Trump supporters here, I don't recall seeing them selling citing QAnon (other than one possible poster).
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
ideologyhunter said:
Sickening poll on MSNBC 5 min. ago: 50% of Trump supporters believe the claims of Q-Anon. Jesus, this won't go away fast.
Sidebar: 5% of Biden supporters believe!!!! Those are the people I'd like to hear from. Can't even imagine how they'd explain.
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The left-side of the spectrum has nuts, the conspiracy people that are all about homeopathic medicine, super against GMO, etc.. So I can see the allure to them of QAnon. That 50% support for Trump sounds off. I doubt 50% of total Trump voters really know what QAnon is. Of the small number of Trump supporters here, I don't recall seeing them selling citing QAnon (other than one possible poster).
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I think you underestimate the average intelligence of posters here compared to the average intelligence of the general populace.

In any case, suffice it to say, QAnon is frighteningly popular. Although, I agree, 50% sounds high? But maybe that's correct. The actual number will always be too high.

Anyway, QAnon is pretty much tailor-made to appeal to people who have been primed to hate politicians. Also, there are kernels of truth in it, like the fact that there *are* disturbing instances of child sex trafficking. And there are examples of elites who *do* get away with it fragrantly, e.g. Epstein.

If you are a Trump supporter, it's a short(er) leap to "The democrats are a child sex-trafficking organization, and Trump is secretly trying to bring it down". Remember, these are the people who don't realize he is an obvious con man.
 
It looks like Trump's fall has broken on 538 and he's heading back up again. I think Trump campaign might be gaining momentum. Just like it did in 2016 in the last few weeks of October.
 
Jayjay said:
It looks like Trump's fall has broken on 538 and he's heading back up again. I think Trump campaign might be gaining momentum. Just like it did in 2016 in the last few weeks of October.
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Oh yea, it's going to be an incredibly close race.
 
Jayjay said:
It looks like Trump's fall has broken on 538 and he's heading back up again. I think Trump campaign might be gaining momentum. Just like it did in 2016 in the last few weeks of October.
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Trump's support is elastic. But PA, WI, and MI came out today and Biden's lead isn't collapsing... and it is quite healthy (50+%) in MI and PA and 49/50% in WI. And keep in mind people are already voting and have voted, so the polling doesn't mean quite as much now. However, it is impossible to say how much it matters at this point.

Meanwhile a tropical event is brewing at the moment in the south Caribbean Sea. Where it goes, how strong it gets, if it becomes a tropical depression/storm/hurricane, isn't known, but it adds a bit to the unknown for the Gulf of Mexico and SE Atlantic Coasts.

I'm reminded of 2012 when Rove was dead certain they won, and it wasn't close. We know 2016 was a rude awakening, even after the shock of Brexit, so we know everything is in doubt, but things look better now than in 2016.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
We know 2016 was a rude awakening, even after the shock of Brexit, so we know everything is in doubt, but things look better now than in 2016.
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Feels eerily similar to me. I have been in rare discussion with a friend who is a veterinarian, cattle rancher, horse trainer and good person I have known for years. She is terrified of the corrupt Bidens and what they will do to the economy, cattle prices and the cost of keeping horses. When the individual mandate was killed off, her health insurance costs went down by $500/mo. Seems to have little awareness or concern that GDP is down 35%, there are multi-trillion dollar deficits and record unemployment, or that many or most of 225,000 dead American bodies can be laid at Trump's doorstep. Her checking account balance is up, and that's that. All the better if Trump's donors have gotten billions of taxpayer dollars - that's just a helpful abstraction.

I am grateful that she has been willing to engage (most aren't), as it has helped me understand that WE ARE IN TROUBLE in this election.
Democrats are once again poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I am confident that the popular vote will break toward Biden/Harris. Less so that those votes will be counted and honored, and even less than that, that they will yield an EC victory and it won't be thrown to the (packed) courts. Least likely of all IMO, is that it will enable Dems to take the Senate along with the White House, after all the dust settles.
There may be forces of which I amunaware keeping this election on the up-and-up. But if so ... they are forces of which I am unaware.
 
At this FiveThirtyEight page I see that Pennsylvania was polled 60 times during October of the 2016 Clinton-vs-Trump campaign. Clinton's average adjusted result was +3.3, but there was variation. Fourteen of the 60 polls had Clinton at +6 or more (adjusted). Eleven had her at +1 or worse. (Google Consumer Surveys was one pollster which favored Trump. Trump+1 was their average over the six Pennsylvania polls they did in October.)

Biden is ahead +4.9 on average over the ten most recent Pennsylvania polls according to the RCP page. +4.9 is not hugely more than +3.3.

And be aware that
  • The GOP has ramped up plans to fill polling places with "monitors." (A recent Pennsylvania order, now under judicial review, would disallow the monitors from carrying firearms openly.) Recall that in 2016 the GOP, due to its malicious practices circa 1980, was still operating under a since-expired prohibition against "monitoring" precinct polling sites.
  • In 2016 Trump was not widely understood to be a sociopathic and moronic traitor. Many of his supporters are now too embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they will vote for him again.
  • PA, along with MI, WI and MN, are must-win states for Biden. If he fails to sweep this group, he must win at least one traditional red state: FL, NC or AZ.

In this hyper-close election Biden has about a 60% chance of appearing to have won by Nov. 5, but probably less than 50% of actually being sworn in on Inauguration Day.
 
Swammerdami said:
At this FiveThirtyEight page I see that Pennsylvania was polled 60 times during October of the 2016 Clinton-vs-Trump campaign. Clinton's average adjusted result was +3.3, but there was variation. Fourteen of the 60 polls had Clinton at +6 or more (adjusted). Eleven had her at +1 or worse. (Google Consumer Surveys was one pollster which favored Trump. Trump+1 was their average over the six Pennsylvania polls they did in October.)

Biden is ahead +4.9 on average over the ten most recent Pennsylvania polls according to the RCP page. +4.9 is not hugely more than +3.3.
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There is one other thing to consider.

Number crunching time!!!

In 2016 in the end of the race in Oct/Nov Clinton average a 4 point lead, BUTT!!! <--- extra T in the but for emphasis

In 2016, when you add the polling numbers of Trump, Clinton, and Johnson, there was a non-response from an average of 7 points

In 2020, the average lead as of late for Biden is 6 points, with a non-response number of 4 points.

So in 2016, Clinton had a smaller lead and more people not answering the question... and Clinton having less than 50 pts in the poll
In 2020, Biden has a larger lead, fewer people not answering... and Biden consistently getting about 50 pts.

Now, it is possible Trump won in 2016 because of turnouts, but the numbers above imply (in hindsight) that if enough unknowns bent to Trump, he had a chance to win. Right now, the polls indicate that they have to be flat out wrong for Trump to win.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Swammerdami said:
At this FiveThirtyEight page I see that Pennsylvania was polled 60 times during October of the 2016 Clinton-vs-Trump campaign. Clinton's average adjusted result was +3.3, but there was variation. Fourteen of the 60 polls had Clinton at +6 or more (adjusted). Eleven had her at +1 or worse. (Google Consumer Surveys was one pollster which favored Trump. Trump+1 was their average over the six Pennsylvania polls they did in October.)

Biden is ahead +4.9 on average over the ten most recent Pennsylvania polls according to the RCP page. +4.9 is not hugely more than +3.3.
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There is one other thing to consider.

Number crunching time!!!

In 2016 in the end of the race in Oct/Nov Clinton average a 4 point lead, BUTT!!! <--- extra T in the but for emphasis

In 2016, when you add the polling numbers of Trump, Clinton, and Johnson, there was a non-response from an average of 7 points

In 2020, the average lead as of late for Biden is 6 points, with a non-response number of 4 points.

So in 2016, Clinton had a smaller lead and more people not answering the question... and Clinton having less than 50 pts in the poll
In 2020, Biden has a larger lead, fewer people not answering... and Biden consistently getting about 50 pts.

Now, it is possible Trump won in 2016 because of turnouts, but the numbers above imply (in hindsight) that if enough unknowns bent to Trump, he had a chance to win. Right now, the polls indicate that they have to be flat out wrong for Trump to win.
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In the swing states the polls are pretty much all within the margin of error. My concern remains, shy Trump supporters, turnout and effective voter intimidation by Trump, coupled with legal challenges in very close states. It really does need to be a landslide to stop Trump.

On the plus side, Biden just isn’t hated as HRC was. For whatever reason, she just rubbed people the wrong way. Aggressive women usually do. They’re trying to be alpha dog with a bunch of competing males. Biden is everyone’s lovable grandpa. Or at least doesn’t generate such visceral hatred. I just wish he’d ran into 2016. I think he would’ve won.
 
I think if you give Trump every state Biden isn’t polling 50% or higher, Biden wins, at the moment.
 
SLD said:
...
On the plus side, Biden just isn’t hated as HRC was. For whatever reason, she just rubbed people the wrong way. Aggressive women usually do. They’re trying to be alpha dog with a bunch of competing males. Biden is everyone’s lovable grandpa. Or at least doesn’t generate such visceral hatred. I just wish he’d ran into 2016. I think he would’ve won.
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I've always said Hillary couldn't win. Of course she actually did win, almost. But if it was against any reasonable conservative Republican I think she would have lost. The reason being that the Clintons just inspire so much hate in the Republicans. And not because she's an aggressive woman. She was certainly assertive and defended herself against a lot of very aggressive Republican men. But that was an obstacle for Trump. If anything she should have had the women's vote because Trump is such a outright misogynist. Look at the despicable way he tried to humiliate Carly Fiorina! Biden knew he needed a woman as a running mate.
 
I used to get a catalogue from Hamilton Booksellers. They had a lot of books that were cut rate priced, stuff nook companies were getting rid of the clean up their ware houses. They had an amazing number of foamy lipped, far right books going ape over Hilary Clinton. Clinton's plans to take over the US and turn it socialist. raving crazy stuff that appealed the John Bircher types. For decades and years, Hillary has been a target of the unhinged right, the type who would get their only news from Rush Limbaugh, who over the years peddled conspiracy theories about Hillary with no regard for accuracy, or even sanity.

I was not surprised then at how vicious 2016 was, or that Hillary in the end lost by a very small margin in the EC.
 
6 days until election day.

538
National Polls - Biden is up by +9.4%
Michigan - Biden is up by +8.3%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up by +5.1%
Wisconsin - Biden is up by +7.1%
Florida - Biden is up by +2.3%
North Carolina - Biden is up by +2.5%

The only place Trumpo's frantic campaigning has moved the needle has been in Florida. But North Carolina seems to be slipping through his fingers. He is not making progress in Michigan,or Wisconsin. Pennsylvania, Trump is moving up but not much and he is still in trouble there. Apparently in parts of these states, there have been a lot of last minute massive door to door get out the vote campaigns by Democrats and disgruntled ex-GOP voters for Biden.

The new toss up states, Texas, Iowa and Ohio are still about tied, though Iowa now has Biden up +1.2%
 
War, huh (whoa, whoa whoa Lord)
What is it good for?
Winning an election!
Say it again!
 
Polls in PA, MI, and WI still show Biden 50 or higher. Biden's leads here are about double what Clinton's were.

Again, those states with VA, NH, NV, and CO provide the White House. CO, NH, VA seem like sure things. FL, IA, OH, AZ, GA, NC simply don't matter in the end. We want them all, but I'm not guessing on the under 50 pt polling.
 
The wagering site Betfair.com takes bets on the Presidential election state-by-state.
Here are their derived odds of Dems winning the state; 1st number is from 11 October; 2nd from 19 Oct; 3rd from 28 Oct.

TX 27.6% 24 26.0
OH 43.5% 35 31.8
IA 40.8% - 42.2
GA 44.0% 42 42.3
FL 57.3% 51 45.6
NC 54.1% 53 52.1
AZ 60.2% 59 56.0
PA 74.7% 70 67.1
WI 76.1% 70 70.3
NV 74.7% 70 73.2
MI 79.5% 72 73.7
MN 81.7% 75 78.1
NH 79.5% 80 79.5
VA 92.7% 93 92.4

Biden has gained ground in some states, but has lost quite a bit in Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. (I wonder if riots in Philly play a role.)

If Biden wins all the states shown as 70% chance or higher, he'll also want PA for the victory. (In that case he still wins without one of the little states [NV or NH] but can't lose both.)

If Biden gets AZ instead of PA, he'll need Omaha and rural Maine to win; or just one of those single-EV districts to tie. A 269-269 split is still a real possibility.
 
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