Polls of the Presidential Race

[ideologyhunter]

And news flash to bewildered righties, who swallow all the Fox News hoopla that Biden is (a) mentally afflicted and (b) a toy of the extreme left, so how can sensible Dems support him:
> Yes, he garbles words ('senate' for 'the Presidency', which I've had Trumpies throw at me with triumph in their tone.) But that's nothing like the idiocy and delusion that Trump spouts while meaning it. Global warming? Things will cool down, just watch.
> Toy of the extremists: This is a never-ending trope of the right. Somehow, in every election, the guy running for the Dems is the most radical leftie -- except they turn out to be accomodationist on many an issue, like Bill Clinton especially and Obama on occasion.
> Few of us LOVE Biden. We don't! He's not exciting. But he's sane, and we have a chance to maybe, maybe, win back the good graces of our allies, those folks who right now loathe us. We have a chance, hopefully, to start to restore some balance to the judiciary. To push back on Russian election hacking. To work out some better arrangements for voting. To kick the lying, racist, corrupt quack from Queens back to his golf course, or better yet, to the clutches of NY's southern district.,
I suspect that Dems will vote like the clannish Republicans do every time out: standing shoulder to shoulder (er...forget that, that's what raving Trumpies do), standing united to get our leader elected.

 

[Gospel]

Trump may still pull an upset. I mean Biden is essentially Hillary 2.0 considering some things about him the left shouldn't like.

Supported laws that mostly impacted monitory groups: Check
Bad Gun rights history: Check
Tried to overturn Row Vs Wade: Check

I think that's a little bit dishonest, not to mention that is was in 1981 that Biden considered allowing the individuals states to decide whether or not to support Roe v. Wade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html

t was a new era in Washington in 1981, and abortion rights activists were terrified.

With an anti-abortion president, Ronald Reagan, in power and Republicans controlling the Senate for the first time in decades, social conservatives pushed for a constitutional amendment to allow individual states to overturn Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court ruling that had made abortion legal nationwide several years earlier.

The amendment — which the National Abortion Rights Action League called “the most devastating attack yet on abortion rights” — cleared a key hurdle in the Senate Judiciary Committee in March 1982. Support came not only from Republicans but from a 39-year-old, second-term Democrat: Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“I’m probably a victim, or a product, however you want to phrase it, of my background,” Mr. Biden, a Roman Catholic, said at the time. The decision, he said, was “the single most difficult vote I’ve cast as a U.S. senator.”

The bill never made it to the full Senate, and when it came back up the following year, Mr. Biden voted against it. His back-and-forth over abortion would become a hallmark of his political career.

He apparently doesn't feel conflicted about Roe V Wade now, so the fact that he was conflicted about it in 1981 isn't applicable to now.

As far as guns go, perhaps you don't understand that in most of the country there are lots of gun toting liberals. I'm married to one. ( actually he gave up his carry permit several years ago, but he used to carry concealed ) In fact, the last time I went to a gun show, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity, there were a very high number of Black folks there buying and selling guns. Yes. Do you have evidence that Biden doesn't support laws that would promote gun safety, like requiring registration, training and things like that? I really am not aware of Biden's current feelings on guns, but it's wrong to assume that liberals aren't gun owners. They just tend to take gun safety more seriously and they usually support good regulation regarding gun ownership etc.

If you are referring to the laws regarding increasing prison time, the Congressional Black Caucus also supported those laws. I would call those laws wrong, but I seriously doubt that anyone realized that they would lead to a huge increase in the incarceration of Black men. Hindsight is always 20/20.. Those who supported the laws at that time have come to accept that they made a mistake.

But, the important thing is that most open minded, intelligent people do tend to change and learn from their mistakes. I feel that Biden is an example of this, while Trump has never learned or even admitted his mistakes. Biden didn't always support gay marriage but he came out in support of it before many other Democrats did. As I said, decent people will grow and learn as time goes on.

And, in this particular election, it's not so much about being enthusiastic about Biden, as it is ridding the country of the most incompetent, corrupt, autocratic president in our life times, if not in the history of the country. If people expect purity, then they are idiots. There will never be a perfect candidate. There will always be times that a decent person has to vote for someone who they don't fully support. I've been voting since I turned 21. The voting age was 21 when I was 18, and there have been only a couple of times that I was enthusiastic about the person who got my vote.

I've known people who voted third party last time because, "we don't like Hillary". I really wanted to smack some sense into them, and I hope they have learned their lesson.

If people who feel Biden isn't far left enough for them fail to vote or vote third party out of spite, then they are harming themselves and others. Better to get part of what you want, then have everything important to you taken away.

Just my thoughts

1) The people I'm talking about that would help Trump pull off an upset (for the second time) don't care how long ago Biden was against Row Vs Wade.
2) I am indeed talking about gun loving liberals that aren't motivated to vote because criminals neither care nor need to care about back ground checks.
3) Trump's "policies" (if he has any), having a negative impact on minority groups are relatively new in comparison to Biden's records during his long political carrier. As such there are more people Biden could potentially have hurt & not every person from minority groups forget nor do they see Biden as the greater good vote.

I personally don't see Trump as this supervillain folks make him out to be. He's just not smart like he demands we all believe he is. As such, there is the potential for a second upset. I don't think there will be. I think trump will loose, otherwise I would not have purchased this projector and screen from Amazon and have popcorn at the ready.

 

[fromderinside]

Damn!. Taking over the signature of the repellican poopie, Onward Christian Soldiers

​

1 Onward, Christian soldiers,
marching as to war,
With the cross of Biden
going on before!
Biden, the royal Master,
leads against the foe;
Forward into battle,
see his banner go!
:
Onward, Christian soldiers,
marching as to war,
With the cross of Biden
going on before!

2 At the sign of triumph
Republican's host doth flee;
On, then, Christian soldiers,
on to victory!
Trump's foundations quiver
at the shout of praise;
Brothers, lift your voices,
loud your anthems raise!

3 Like a mighty army
moves the church of Democrats
Brothers, we are treading
where the saints have trod;
We are not divided;
all one body we,
One in hope and doctrine,
one in charity.

4 Onward, then, ye people,
join our happy throng,
Blend with ours your voices
in the triumph song;
Glory, laud, and honor,
unto Biden the President
This thro' countless ages
men and angels sing.

Just substitute: Biden for Jesus, Christ and Lord and Democrats for God, Republicans for Hell and Trump for Satan


And blasphemy to you too ....

 

[Elixir]

It's terrible knowing that the fate of the Nation may well rely on the fickle finger of Florida.

Florida doesn't matter. It didn't matter in 2016. Had Clinton secured the blue wall, she would have won. But the Trump campaign targeted the block vote successfully and helped lower black turnout, and a lot of increased turnout in urban Michigan voted third party (?). Again, the battleground is VA, CO, NH, which don't appear close again. Then add WI, MI, and PA, and Biden wins. If Biden takes NC, FL, AZ, IA, TX, that is all gravy. The more the merrier, and a complete and utter ass-whipping would be great, granted, that'd be assumed by Trump Red Hat's as a stolen election and they'd probably rise to violence. Then our Libertarians would talk about how stealing the Presidency is cool.

Let’s not pretend this will be anything like fair. Dems need an overwhelming show of force on election night, or Cheato will declare victory then and there. He might do it anyway, but the greater the showing on 11/3 the less chance he will be able to pull off a coup.

 

[bilby]

I think that's a little bit dishonest, not to mention that is was in 1981 that Biden considered allowing the individuals states to decide whether or not to support Roe v. Wade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html



He apparently doesn't feel conflicted about Roe V Wade now, so the fact that he was conflicted about it in 1981 isn't applicable to now.

As far as guns go, perhaps you don't understand that in most of the country there are lots of gun toting liberals. I'm married to one. ( actually he gave up his carry permit several years ago, but he used to carry concealed ) In fact, the last time I went to a gun show, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity, there were a very high number of Black folks there buying and selling guns. Yes. Do you have evidence that Biden doesn't support laws that would promote gun safety, like requiring registration, training and things like that? I really am not aware of Biden's current feelings on guns, but it's wrong to assume that liberals aren't gun owners. They just tend to take gun safety more seriously and they usually support good regulation regarding gun ownership etc.

If you are referring to the laws regarding increasing prison time, the Congressional Black Caucus also supported those laws. I would call those laws wrong, but I seriously doubt that anyone realized that they would lead to a huge increase in the incarceration of Black men. Hindsight is always 20/20.. Those who supported the laws at that time have come to accept that they made a mistake.

But, the important thing is that most open minded, intelligent people do tend to change and learn from their mistakes. I feel that Biden is an example of this, while Trump has never learned or even admitted his mistakes. Biden didn't always support gay marriage but he came out in support of it before many other Democrats did. As I said, decent people will grow and learn as time goes on.

And, in this particular election, it's not so much about being enthusiastic about Biden, as it is ridding the country of the most incompetent, corrupt, autocratic president in our life times, if not in the history of the country. If people expect purity, then they are idiots. There will never be a perfect candidate. There will always be times that a decent person has to vote for someone who they don't fully support. I've been voting since I turned 21. The voting age was 21 when I was 18, and there have been only a couple of times that I was enthusiastic about the person who got my vote.

I've known people who voted third party last time because, "we don't like Hillary". I really wanted to smack some sense into them, and I hope they have learned their lesson.

If people who feel Biden isn't far left enough for them fail to vote or vote third party out of spite, then they are harming themselves and others. Better to get part of what you want, then have everything important to you taken away.

Just my thoughts

1) The people I'm talking about that would help Trump pull off an upset (for the second time) don't care how long ago Biden was against Row Vs Wade.
2) I am indeed talking about gun loving liberals that aren't motivated to vote because criminals neither care nor need to care about back ground checks.
3) Trump's "policies" (if he has any), having a negative impact on minority groups are relatively new in comparison to Biden's records during his long political carrier. As such there are more people Biden could potentially have hurt & not every person from minority groups forget nor do they see Biden as the greater good vote.

I personally don't see Trump as this supervillain folks make him out to be. He's just not smart like he demands we all believe he is. As such, there is the potential for a second upset. I don't think there will be. I think trump will loose, otherwise I would not have purchased this projector and screen from Amazon and have popcorn at the ready.

It's Roe (as in fish), not Row (as in line).

Row vs Wade is the choice you make when crossing a river.

Roe vs Wade is the legal precedent that makes abortion legal in the USA.

 

[Gospel]

I think that's a little bit dishonest, not to mention that is was in 1981 that Biden considered allowing the individuals states to decide whether or not to support Roe v. Wade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html



He apparently doesn't feel conflicted about Roe V Wade now, so the fact that he was conflicted about it in 1981 isn't applicable to now.

As far as guns go, perhaps you don't understand that in most of the country there are lots of gun toting liberals. I'm married to one. ( actually he gave up his carry permit several years ago, but he used to carry concealed ) In fact, the last time I went to a gun show, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity, there were a very high number of Black folks there buying and selling guns. Yes. Do you have evidence that Biden doesn't support laws that would promote gun safety, like requiring registration, training and things like that? I really am not aware of Biden's current feelings on guns, but it's wrong to assume that liberals aren't gun owners. They just tend to take gun safety more seriously and they usually support good regulation regarding gun ownership etc.

If you are referring to the laws regarding increasing prison time, the Congressional Black Caucus also supported those laws. I would call those laws wrong, but I seriously doubt that anyone realized that they would lead to a huge increase in the incarceration of Black men. Hindsight is always 20/20.. Those who supported the laws at that time have come to accept that they made a mistake.

But, the important thing is that most open minded, intelligent people do tend to change and learn from their mistakes. I feel that Biden is an example of this, while Trump has never learned or even admitted his mistakes. Biden didn't always support gay marriage but he came out in support of it before many other Democrats did. As I said, decent people will grow and learn as time goes on.

And, in this particular election, it's not so much about being enthusiastic about Biden, as it is ridding the country of the most incompetent, corrupt, autocratic president in our life times, if not in the history of the country. If people expect purity, then they are idiots. There will never be a perfect candidate. There will always be times that a decent person has to vote for someone who they don't fully support. I've been voting since I turned 21. The voting age was 21 when I was 18, and there have been only a couple of times that I was enthusiastic about the person who got my vote.

I've known people who voted third party last time because, "we don't like Hillary". I really wanted to smack some sense into them, and I hope they have learned their lesson.

If people who feel Biden isn't far left enough for them fail to vote or vote third party out of spite, then they are harming themselves and others. Better to get part of what you want, then have everything important to you taken away.

Just my thoughts

1) The people I'm talking about that would help Trump pull off an upset (for the second time) don't care how long ago Biden was against Row Vs Wade.
2) I am indeed talking about gun loving liberals that aren't motivated to vote because criminals neither care nor need to care about back ground checks.
3) Trump's "policies" (if he has any), having a negative impact on minority groups are relatively new in comparison to Biden's records during his long political carrier. As such there are more people Biden could potentially have hurt & not every person from minority groups forget nor do they see Biden as the greater good vote.

I personally don't see Trump as this supervillain folks make him out to be. He's just not smart like he demands we all believe he is. As such, there is the potential for a second upset. I don't think there will be. I think trump will loose, otherwise I would not have purchased this projector and screen from Amazon and have popcorn at the ready.

It's Roe (as in fish), not Row (as in line).

Row vs Wade is the choice you make when crossing a river.

Roe vs Wade is the legal precedent that makes abortion legal in the USA.

Thanks bud. I had no idea! I always through it was Row Vs Wade! I would have never been able to spell it correctly without your assistance. It's people like you that can save the world from spelling errors. Thanks for your service.

 

[TV and credit cards]

https://twitter.com/TheRickyDavila/status/1314051953790345219?s=20

https://twitter.com/i/status/1314212949255319556

Pete out there doing the dirty work. Going into the enemy camp and encouraging defections.
He should be rewarded with Chief of Staff.

 

[southernhybrid]

I think that's a little bit dishonest, not to mention that is was in 1981 that Biden considered allowing the individuals states to decide whether or not to support Roe v. Wade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/us/politics/biden-abortion-rights.html



He apparently doesn't feel conflicted about Roe V Wade now, so the fact that he was conflicted about it in 1981 isn't applicable to now.

As far as guns go, perhaps you don't understand that in most of the country there are lots of gun toting liberals. I'm married to one. ( actually he gave up his carry permit several years ago, but he used to carry concealed ) In fact, the last time I went to a gun show, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity, there were a very high number of Black folks there buying and selling guns. Yes. Do you have evidence that Biden doesn't support laws that would promote gun safety, like requiring registration, training and things like that? I really am not aware of Biden's current feelings on guns, but it's wrong to assume that liberals aren't gun owners. They just tend to take gun safety more seriously and they usually support good regulation regarding gun ownership etc.

If you are referring to the laws regarding increasing prison time, the Congressional Black Caucus also supported those laws. I would call those laws wrong, but I seriously doubt that anyone realized that they would lead to a huge increase in the incarceration of Black men. Hindsight is always 20/20.. Those who supported the laws at that time have come to accept that they made a mistake.

But, the important thing is that most open minded, intelligent people do tend to change and learn from their mistakes. I feel that Biden is an example of this, while Trump has never learned or even admitted his mistakes. Biden didn't always support gay marriage but he came out in support of it before many other Democrats did. As I said, decent people will grow and learn as time goes on.

And, in this particular election, it's not so much about being enthusiastic about Biden, as it is ridding the country of the most incompetent, corrupt, autocratic president in our life times, if not in the history of the country. If people expect purity, then they are idiots. There will never be a perfect candidate. There will always be times that a decent person has to vote for someone who they don't fully support. I've been voting since I turned 21. The voting age was 21 when I was 18, and there have been only a couple of times that I was enthusiastic about the person who got my vote.

I've known people who voted third party last time because, "we don't like Hillary". I really wanted to smack some sense into them, and I hope they have learned their lesson.

If people who feel Biden isn't far left enough for them fail to vote or vote third party out of spite, then they are harming themselves and others. Better to get part of what you want, then have everything important to you taken away.

Just my thoughts

1) The people I'm talking about that would help Trump pull off an upset (for the second time) don't care how long ago Biden was against Row Vs Wade.
2) I am indeed talking about gun loving liberals that aren't motivated to vote because criminals neither care nor need to care about back ground checks.
3) Trump's "policies" (if he has any), having a negative impact on minority groups are relatively new in comparison to Biden's records during his long political carrier. As such there are more people Biden could potentially have hurt & not every person from minority groups forget nor do they see Biden as the greater good vote.

I personally don't see Trump as this supervillain folks make him out to be. He's just not smart like he demands we all believe he is. As such, there is the potential for a second upset. I don't think there will be. I think trump will loose, otherwise I would not have purchased this projector and screen from Amazon and have popcorn at the ready.

Well, I don't know anyone who thinks like that. Most of then Democrats I know are Black folks. Some of them voted for Biden in the primaries. Those who didn't still support him in the general.

I live in a Black majority city and it's mostly White people who are conservatives here. But, lately, I've even seen signs that say, "Republicans for Biden". I actually have friends who have convinced family members who have never voted in their lives to vote in this election to help rid the country of Trump. Too many people were complacent last time. Too many people didn't vote because, "We don't like Hillary".

I don't see that happening this time.

Biden isn't perfect. No candidates have ever pleased everyone who has voted for them. Only an immature person whines because the candidate isn't liberal or conservative enough to fit their worldview. You have two candidates and one of them is always better than the other. In this case, the choice should be very easy.


I assume that the people who you know are very different in their perspective than the ones who I know, but I have had many discussions with friends about this election and they all support Biden, some enthusiastically, while others just want to get rid of Trump.

I also have no idea what you mean by your comment about guns owners, but every gun owner I know votes one way or the other.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

This morning 538 has Biden up to +10.5%

Florida - Biden is up +4.2%
North Carolina - Biden +3.3%
Pennsylvania - Biden +6.9%
Michigan - Biden +7.8%
Wisconsin - Biden +7.6%
Georgia - Biden +1.3%
Arizona - Biden +3.8%
Texas - Trump +1.4%

Pennsylvania was for some time only barely Biden's but he has made big gains there in the last few weeks. South Carolina is sliding out of Trump's grip. Texas is Trumps, but well within error margins. Houston, has had record breaking early voting, a big blue city. It is all down to turn out now. Georgia, it should be Trumps but it is within margins or error. Iowa and Ohio are basically tied. In Iowa, Joni Ernst is in trouble. 538 gives Greenfield a 53% chance of winning.

I mailed my ballot in and checking my vote status online, it has been received and accepted. I am over the hump now.

538 gives Trump a 13% chance to win. And gives the Democrats an 73% chance to retake the Senate.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Just had a pollster call me. I expressed enthusiastic support for Biden.

Was it a Trump pollster? Are you actually voting for Biden or were you trolling him/her? It's cool if you are. The Democratic Party is a big tent party.

I'm voting third party. Is the Democratic Party big tent enough to endorse anti-war? Or do anti-war candidates face some pretty despicable accusations?

So you're making a half-vote for His Flatulence.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The GOP will then start pushing to change the winner take all electoral college system.

I strongly doubt that will happen. They know that they've only won the popular vote in 1 of the last 5 (soon to be 6) elections. Their only chance is the winner-take-all electoral college.

I think the plan is to win it in the courts.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Hence why Trump returned to the bargaining table regarding COVID stimulus round 2.

He's never been at the bargaining table. He thinks bargaining is accept my offer, period.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Today's Happy Fun Time Polls.

538
National polls - Biden is up 10.7%
Florida polls - Biden is up 4.0%
Michigan - Biden is up +7.9%
Pennsylvania - Biden is up +6.8%
Wisconsin - Biden is up +7.8%
North Carolina - Biden is up +3.2%
Georgia - Biden is up +1.3%

16 days to go.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Caught a few moments of Trumpo the Clown in Minnesota. Telling the crowd (many now are actually wearing masks) that he was going to take Minnesota. The crowd roared its approval.

538 says Biden is leading in Minnesota by +9.1%. Nice to see him wasting time and money in a state where he is getting creamed.

 

[lpetrich]

Donald Trump continues bizarre appeals to suburban women as he campaigns in Covid hotspots - CNNPolitics

If President Donald Trump loses his reelection bid in November, it will be in part because of his fundamental misunderstanding of the beliefs of "suburban women," whom he has tried to win back with a series of bizarre and racist appeals that seem more targeted to a stereotype from the 1950s and 1960s than the American women who actually live in those areas today.

Many of the female voters who have abandoned Trump recoil from his divisive language and disapprove of both his handling of race relations and the pandemic. But he has tried to convince them to support him through a campaign of fear and xenophobia, with claims about the Democratic agenda that plunge deep into the realm of the ridiculous and would be believed only by the most naïve, low-information voters.

...
"Would you like a nice low-income housing project next to your suburban beautiful ranch style house? Generally speaking, no," Trump said in Muskegon, Michigan. "I saved your suburbs -- women -- suburban women, you're supposed to love Trump," he said.

Whining that he doesn't get the love that he thinks that he deserves. What a spoiled brat.

The President went on to make the ludicrous claim that Biden and Democrats want to overwhelm Michigan neighborhoods with refugees from Syria, Somalia and Yemen, and "poorly vetted migrants from jihadist regions."

Then the plot against MI Gov Gretchen Whitmer.

Rather than condemning the derailed plot — which led to terrorism, conspiracy and weapons charges against more than a dozen men — or discouraging that kind of divisive language, Trump essentially endorsed the cheer with his authoritarian rhetoric about jailing his political opponents by adding Clinton and the Biden family into the mix.

"Lock them all up," Trump replied to the crowd.

However,

Trump campaign adviser Lara Trump, who is the President's daughter-in-law, told CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday that his "Lock them all up" comment was made in jest.

"He wasn't doing anything, I don't think, to provoke people to threaten this woman at all. He was having fun at a Trump rally," she told Tapper Sunday on "State of the Union." "Look, the President was at a rally. It's a fun, light atmosphere. Of course, he wasn't encouraging people to threaten this woman. That's ridiculous."

Would she say that about someone who proposed gang-raping Trump's family?

It remains unclear if the President simply does not understand how those attacks on women could backfire at a time when millions of female voters are deciding whether to give him a second chance, or whether he simply can't resist engaging in those tactics because they rev up his crowds.

...
"This election will decide whether we preserve our magnificent heritage or whether we let far left radicals wipe it all away," he said. "They constantly smear America as a racist country. ... America is the most magnificent, most virtuous nation that has ever existed."

...
Trump campaigns as if the pandemic is over

He needs a big defeat. Otherwise he will be insufferable.

 

[Swammerdami]

The optimism I see in threads like this is not shared by punters at the Betfair prediction market. They now show the chances at 60/40 in favor of Biden, about where it was in Summer. Noting that BetFair may call the contract based on early news, but post-election cheating will favor the GOP, we should consider this race to still be an exact 50-50 tossup. Optimistic polls ignore that many of those polled will be effectively denied suffrage on Election Day by intimidation, suppression, deliberately long queues, or criminal discarding of ballots.

Betfair also allows votes on the Presidential election state-by-state; the latest numbers here are also discouraging. Michigan is shown as a 72% Biden chance, down from almost 80% just 8 days ago. Biden has lost ground across the Rust Belt, according to Betfair punters; he's at 75% in Minnesota down from 82%, 70% in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, down from 76% and 75%, Biden has a 51% chance to win Florida, down from 57% 8 days ago.

This election is still very much up in the air. There's a fair chance the winner will not be known before December. Don't be surprised to see the election decided, as it was in 2000, by a 5-4 Scotus decision.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is Trump's elastic support. It never breaks and whenever his idiotic stupidity causes his support to drop... it always snaps back to that 42 to 45% threshold. Most recently, it was his disastrous debate. Who knows if Covid helped or hurt. There is also a concern on mail-in ballot spoilage, I think. Mail-in ballots usually have a much higher rate of discard than in person voting. The math is pretty simple, which again could indicate that Biden could win with intent, but lose the election. So there are those worries probably entering the betting system.

Some races are tightening, but some aren't. In MI and WI, Biden is at or above 50% (Clinton never was). Biden is above 50% in PA, but Trump could be increasing. We are somewhat at the market test point. Trump recovers, but does he continue to increase in the polls. Trump is doing better in FL, NC, and OH. But those are states he absolutely has to win.

States like NH and CO and VA seem to be absolute lost causes for Trump. NV continues to show consistent leads.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump launches a frenzied effort to save his brand - POLITICO

“‘I am not a sick person, ever’ is how he sees himself,” said one longtime Trump chronicler. “He has always defined every outcome as a victory even when it wasn’t.”

President Donald Trump is racing to close a yawning gap in the polls in his final, frantic sprint to Election Day — and also rushing to restore a key element of his personal brand.

Two weeks since exiting a hospital after being pumped with experimental drugs, Trump is attempting to regain a carefully cultivated persona of the businessman-turned-politician who can travel more than anyone, work (or tweet) at all hours and deliver roaring rally speeches for more than 90 minutes on his feet.

It’s an image of vitality and stamina Trump has promoted throughout his real estate career, his reality show and his presidency, suddenly upended by his Covid-19 diagnosis in the final month of the 2020 race. Now, in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic and searing recession, Trump is closing out his campaign with this attitude of fighting, dominance and aggression rather than empathy and compassion many undecided voters may want in a moment of national uncertainty.

“He sees his ability to make calls late at night, function on little sleep and work no matter where he is as part of his appeal,” said one White House official. Covid “threatened to change that projected image.”

“Portraying weakness or vulnerability is not a comfortable spot for him,” the official added. “He thinks his supporters like seeing him as a fighter.”

Joe Biden is projecting the image of a kindly elder, someone who is willing to listen to people's concerns, and someone who at least seems humble. Trump seems unable or unwilling to do any such thing.

What Trump most fears and denies is weakness,” said Tony Schwartz, the author who ghost-wrote “Trump: The Art of the Deal” and just published a memoir titled “Dealing with the Devil: My Mother, Trump and Me.” “I can only imagine he found it virtually intolerable to be in a hospital. ‘I am not a sick person, ever’ is how he sees himself.”

“He has always defined every outcome as a victory even when it wasn’t,” Schwartz added, saying half of the business transactions mentioned in “The Art of the Deal” actually were failures. “Trump’s advantage in promoting himself is that a victory is a victory, but he also declares victory in defeat.”

Doesn't seem like he has ever had to reassess himself. He has counted on others to bail him out, and he is hoping that the Republican Party apparat will bail him out in this election, it seems.

 

[lpetrich]

The hidden factors that could produce a surprise Trump victory - POLITICO

By almost every measure that political operatives, academics and handicappers use to forecast elections, the likely outcome is that Joe Biden will win the White House.

Yet two weeks before Election Day, the unfolding reality of 2020 is that it’s harder than ever to be sure. And Democrats are scrambling to account for the hidden variables that could still sink their nominee — or what you might call the known unknowns.

Like in 2016, with Trump's surprise victory. But Clinton and Trump were neck-and-neck in the polls, with Clinton never being very far ahead. Biden is farther ahead this time, but even that could possibly be overcome.

“There are more known unknowns than we’ve ever had at any point,” said Tom Bonier, CEO of the Democratic data firm TargetSmart. “The instruments we have to gauge this race, the polling, our predictive models … the problem is all those tools are built around quote-unquote normal elections. And this is anything but a normal election.”

...
Of all the reasons for Democrats to be uncertain, the most worrisome for the party is the one that — for now — is going very well for them: Turnout. More than 27 million people had already voted nationwide as of Sunday, some after standing in line for hours, according to data compiled by the United States Elections Project. In states that report returns by party, Democrats are returning more ballots than Republicans. Republicans and Democrats alike believe early voters in other states lean Democratic, as well.


... But Biden abandoned a door-knocking campaign due to concerns about the coronavirus until the final month of the election, ceding traditional field operations to Trump.

The effect that decision will have on the outcome will be impossible to fully quantify until the election is over. But it is one likely reason that Republicans have been able to make registration gains in several states, including Florida, where the GOP has significantly narrowed the party’s voter registration gap with Democrats.

... Pollsters of both parties say they are more carefully accounting for white, noncollege educated voters some surveys missed in 2016.

Yet many Democrats continue to suspect so-called quiet or shy Trump voters still exist — those who refuse to tell pollsters they support a deeply polarizing president. Many Republican Party leaders, especially at the local level, are convinced of it.

Like "shy Tories" in Britain.

 

[lpetrich]

GOP senators, fearing a loss, keep distance from Trump and begin to ponder party's future - CNNPolitics

Publicly and privately, Republicans are now beginning to distance themselves from the President. And the debate over the post-Trump Republican Party is already taking shape, with some eager to emulate his populist style of America-first, slash-and-burn politics -- and others pushing to return to a more moderate, pro-business message to woo disaffected younger voters and women who have been put off by Trump.

While Republicans brace for that debate, several influential Republicans are pleading with Trump to abruptly change his tactics in the final two weeks to zero-in on an economic message, stop downplaying the coronavirus pandemic and to quit launching attacks against his public health experts -- namely Dr. Anthony Fauci.

"I would like to see in the closing days of the campaign him prosecute the argument against the Democrats and the difference in policies," said South Dakota Sen. John Thune, the Republican whip, told CNN. "Stay away from personal attacks. Quit attacking the media. Quit attacking Fauci and focus on issues. ... He's got to stay disciplined to do it, and I think that's how you're going to win over the middle people."

With a section called "Republican fears Trump's down-ticket impact"

All I can say is: good riddance. They deserve it for toadying up to him and so shamelessly enabling him.