• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Polls of the Presidential Race

I remember participating in those votes as a kid, you know, civic duty and all. Without any stake in the outcome I usually voted for the loser because I didn't have a grasp of the issues. It was like voting for the middle school class candidate who promised free candy and extra recess.

civics lessons must've been totally gone by the time i got to junior high in 1990 or so. i don't recall ever doing such things. of course i was stoned from 1994-2003 so maybe it's just lost in that cloud.
We did it in 6th grade for the '88 election (Bush won, South Shore Middle School in Massachusetts). I remember there being voting in the 2nd grade at our school and we went in the booths, but I don't think we (the 2nd grade) voted. We didn't have it for '92 in High School, though it was definitely a topic, that and the Anita Hill controversy... and all of us being way too influenced by our parents to discuss it.
 
Did something happen recently in Philadelphia to make voters prefer law and order candidates?

Philadelphia firefighters union votes to uphold endorsement of President Trump

Yeah, sure, the "law and order" candidate is the one actually in power while the riots are occurring. What a bunch of fucking rubes. Go ahead vote for that asshole, put him back in power again so that he can learn that riots in the streets are benefit to him.

Whatever makes him a buck.
 
Did something happen recently in Philadelphia to make voters prefer law and order candidates?

Philadelphia firefighters union votes to uphold endorsement of President Trump

Law and order my ass. They understand Trump and Trump understands them. Trump speaks and handles his job in the same ham-fisted manner they would if they were president. They identify with Trump's lowbrow approach and similarly fall short when it comes to the end "lessons learned" phase of whatever issue is at hand.
 
Trump's flagging performance has many Republicans worried about losing the Senate. As well they might, because many Americans vote on party lines, being yellow-dog Democrats and yellow-dog Republicans.

Large Shares of Voters Plan To Vote a Straight Party Ticket for President, Senate and House | Pew Research Center

2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - Biden 89% Trump 10%

The poll margin has been going up. The race isn't tightening -- it's loosening.

2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - D 76% R 24%

That gives Biden a roughly 15% chance of having to deal with a Republican Senate, likely with Mitch McConnell as its Majority Leader.

Average # D seats: 51.8
 
Based on 2016, I'm not comfortable saying Biden has a lead in any state without a 50+% polling number. So FL, NC, not in Biden's column, and definitely not Ohio. The numbers are stable though in WI, MI, and PA.
 
Based on 2016, I'm not comfortable saying Biden has a lead in any state without a 50+% polling number. So FL, NC, not in Biden's column, and definitely not Ohio. The numbers are stable though in WI, MI, and PA.

Ya sure ya betcha.
Except that Trump's corrupt SCOTUS has reserved the right to hand him the Presidency if they don't like the choice made by the voters.
That's a problem.
A BIG problem.
And one that is made worse by the fact that most other Countries won't even allow us in, because of the shithole we come from.
 
Given the two options, Trump victory or Biden victory, what would that entail come next March.

I think a Biden victory is worse for the Democratic Party than a Trump victory.

First it will completely deflate all the motivators that the Democratic Party has used to energize their base. Their one issue, and only one issue, isn't "healthcare" or "UBI", it is "Orange Man Bad." What will they do without Orange Man? Rerun old stories? Try to paint Mitch as being as bad as Trump? And what kind of "he's the new Hitler" would leave office if he loses?

Second, Biden is an empty vessel filled by his advisors, and he is unlikely to finish his one term. The first female president would be Kamala Harris, and not because she was ever at the top of the ticket. She will be called "President Select" and no amount of saying "You're just a sexist" is going to undo that. When Biden still had his faculties intact, he knew how to do the political maneuvering to work across the aisle while being their opponent. It is the political game. He's not that man anymore, and Harris was never that woman. She couldn't even get her fellow Democrats to like her and dropped out of the primary very early.

There really is no program they can say they ran on. They can all congratulate each other on getting rid of Orange Man, but then the centrists and the radicals will both be faced with the fact that they aren't united. The corporate Wall Street Democrats aren't interested in giving the Antifa faction (except Antifa doesn't actually exist :rolleyes:) anything they want.

Given a Senate that won't cooperate unless it also flips, a candidate who probably won't last his term, and disunity within their own ranks, it looks bleak for the Democrats if they win. At least if the lose they can still rant and rave about how Trump is the worst person to ever hold any elected office anywhere.
 
Given the two options, Trump victory or Biden victory, what would that entail come next March.

I think a Biden victory is worse for the Democratic Party than a Trump victory.

A Republican victory (Senate as well as His Flatulence) probably means the Democratic party ceases to be meaningful. That would give them another 4 years to dismantle our democracy.
 
Given the two options, Trump victory or Biden victory, what would that entail come next March.

I think a Biden victory is worse for the Democratic Party than a Trump victory.

First it will completely deflate all the motivators that the Democratic Party has used to energize their base. Their one issue, and only one issue, isn't "healthcare" or "UBI", it is "Orange Man Bad." What will they do without Orange Man? Rerun old stories? Try to paint Mitch as being as bad as Trump? And what kind of "he's the new Hitler" would leave office if he loses?
There are more things in Heaven and Earth than are dreamt of in Fox News.

I think that what will happen is that there will be *big* fights. The progressive wing of the party will not want to be sidelined as had pretty much happened in the Clinton and Obama Presidencies. Look at the Working Families Party recent manifesto. A lot of left-wingers are getting ready to *fight*. They are not going to expect Joe Biden or Kamala Harris to be some political savior.
Second, Biden is an empty vessel filled by his advisors, and he is unlikely to finish his one term. The first female president would be Kamala Harris, and not because she was ever at the top of the ticket. She will be called "President Select" and no amount of saying "You're just a sexist" is going to undo that. When Biden still had his faculties intact, he knew how to do the political maneuvering to work across the aisle while being their opponent. It is the political game. He's not that man anymore, and Harris was never that woman. She couldn't even get her fellow Democrats to like her and dropped out of the primary very early.
"President Select"? Nobody ever said that about Harry Truman or LBJ or Jerry Ford.
There really is no program they can say they ran on. They can all congratulate each other on getting rid of Orange Man, but then the centrists and the radicals will both be faced with the fact that they aren't united. The corporate Wall Street Democrats aren't interested in giving the Antifa faction (except Antifa doesn't actually exist :rolleyes:) anything they want.
There is no "Antifa faction", and "Antifa" itself is not much of a movement. If anything, it's a right-wing projection of Proud Boys features onto the Left.
 
I decided to look at previous Vice Presidents who have succeeded Presidents, to see how they did in primary and nominating votes.

The first one I looked at was Teddy Roosevelt, who succeeded William McKinley in 1901. Both candidates were nominated unanimously in the 1900 Republican National Convention, with the exception of TR abstaining in the Veep vote.

WMK was re-elected in 1900, and in the 1896 Republican convention, he was nominated with nearly 2/3 of the vote. TR wasn't in that race at all.

Then Calvin Coolidge, who succeeded Warren Harding in 1923. His share of the Republican convention votes declined from a little over 1/30 on the first ballot to a bit more than 1/200 on the final ballot.

Then Harry Truman, who succeeded FDR in 1945. HT was not in the Presidential race in 1932, 1936, 1940, or 1944, when FDR was.

Then LBJ, who succeeded JFK in 1963. In the 1960 Democratic convention, JFK got 53% of the vote and LBJ 27%. All the other candidates got less of the vote. So LBJ was second in line.

Then Gerald Ford, who succeeded Richard Nixon in 1974. GF succeeded RN's first Veep, Spiro Agnew, who resigned the year before after he was being investigated for having taken bribes. GF was not in the Presidential race in 1968 or 1972, when RN was.

So in summary, in Presidential nominations,
  • Second place: LBJ
  • Far behind: Calvin Coolidge
  • Not in the running: Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Jerry Ford
So dismissing Kamala Harris as "President Select" is unjustified from the record, but then again, right-wingers are experts at inventing specious objections. Like saying that Bill Clinton was guilty of a no-no: protesting US policies while in another nation's territory, referring to his objection to the Vietnam War.
 
If people don’t understand that they are voting for both President and Vice President and that one of the primary roles of VP is to become President then that is not the VP’s problem. The VP as President is just as legitimate as the Pres. if someone doesn’t like that they can vote for a different ticket.
 
I'm voting third party. Is the Democratic Party big tent enough to endorse anti-war? Or do anti-war candidates face some pretty despicable accusations?

Libertarian (noun) [pronounced "eye-ron-ee"] : Someone who dismisses binary political structures like a two party system whilst tarring all members of a political party with the same brush.

*Answers phone* "Hello?"

"Hello, I'm a complete stranger. In these modern times people are getting assaulted and pressure is being put on their employers to fire them if they don't support Biden. Who are you planning on voting for in the upcoming election?"
 
I'm voting third party. Is the Democratic Party big tent enough to endorse anti-war? Or do anti-war candidates face some pretty despicable accusations?

Libertarian (noun) [pronounced "eye-ron-ee"] : Someone who dismisses binary political structures like a two party system whilst tarring all members of a political party with the same brush.

*Answers phone* "Hello?"

"Hello, I'm a complete stranger. In these modern times people are getting assaulted and pressure is being put on their employers to fire them if they don't support Biden. Who are you planning on voting for in the upcoming election?"

Got a link for this widespread movement of firing Trump supporters? Or is this a fox news anecdote.

I won't argue that people are getting assaulted in these "modern times"
 
Back
Top Bottom