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Is Georgia on your mind?

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536?s=20[/TWEET]

I do wonder though whether more Republicans voted by mail this time and it's going to screw up the projections.
 
blastula said:
[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536?s=20[/TWEET]

I do wonder though whether more Republicans voted by mail this time and it's going to screw up the projections.
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Most of that should be in. Purdue doesn't have a lot of votes left. 100k to 150k. The Dems are looking to take in at least 100,000 more net votes in DeKalb alone.

ETA: To be clear, I meant NET votes, not just flat out votes, for Purdue.
 
I wanna believe. All the data guys I'm reading are saying both Dems should win now.
 
Georgia Senate Election Results: Live Map - The New York Times - as I write this, it's saying that Perdue is ahead by 1.8 and Loeffler by 1.1

While its estimator has Warnock ahead by 1.8 (-1.3 to +5; 85%) and Ossoff ahead by 1.0 (-2 to +4; 71%).


I've been getting YouTube ads from both sides, and activists have been pushing heavily to get out the vote.

Anna Bahr on Twitter: "NEWS: @ConMijente has officially contacted **every Latino voter** in Georgia in just 8 weeks.

- 310,000 doors
- 257,000 calls
- 376,000 texts

This is the biggest Latino voter turnout operation in GA's history. And it happened in 2 months. Very big deal." / Twitter

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Wow: ConMijente has contacted EVERY Latino voter in GA! ☎️

We’ve been telling y’all: @ConMijente no juegan. This is the power of organizing, and why we’ve been proud to support them along w/ @NewGAProject, @fairfightaction & many others.

GEORGIA: tomorrow’s the day!
VOTE 🗳" / Twitter

ConMijente no juegan - "Con Mi Gente" "With My People" is not playing
 
Lots of votes left in DeKalb County. It's a populous county in Metro Atlanta and very, very lopsided.
 
So should we be calling her Governor to Be Abrams or DNC Chairman Abrams?
 
Georgia Senate Election Results: Live Map - The New York Times

Warnock +0.47
Ossoff -0.37

Estimated margins of victory:

Warnock +1.9 (+1.1 to +3, >95%)
Ossoff +1.1 (<+0.5 to +1.9, >95%)

Danny Hakim: Time to begin the search for the Warnock-Perdue voters.

Finding who split the ticket, voting for a Democrat and a Republican.

Shaila Dewan: Ossoff trails while Warnock leads. In the campaign, Warnock went out of his way to offer Ossoff his coattails, calling him “my brother from another mother.”

Nice sentiment.
 
Still at 95% -- Warnock +0.81%, Purdue <0.01% (384 out of 2.15 million votes)


It looks like Trump scored an own goal for his party by denouncing the recent Georgia general election as fraudulent. Since he has only 15 days left in office, his lame-duck status may help Republicans show some willingness to say things that he doesn't want to hear.


Matt Flegenheimer: “If they win, I’ll get no credit,” Trump predicted of Republicans last night. “If they lose, they’re gonna blame Trump.” Given Georgia’s political shift in the Trump era, he’s probably onto something.

Jennifer Medina: Trump tweeted a false suggestion that Democrats were “waiting to see how many votes they need.” His claim was particularly baffling since he pressed Georgia officials for just enough votes to overturn his loss.

Matt Flegenheimer: Bearish G.O.P. strategist texts: “This jump-starts the debate we’ll see through the ’24 election: Is Trump the problem or the solution?” Given suburban tallies, strategist says, it’s plainly the former.

Jeremy Peters: Republicans pleaded with Trump to care about this race. And as the runoff approached, they worried he had become more disengaged because he didn’t want to help in a state he’d lost.

Trip Gabriel: Both Republicans ran on exaggerated fears of their opponents — “extremists,” “socialists” — and banked on hugging Trump. But Trump left them out to dry, talking mostly of bogus claims of a “stolen” election.

Jeremy Peters: Fox News is reporting now on an issue that Republicans have been concerned about since November: The vote in rural Georgia tonight seems soft because the Trump base is depressed.
 
NY Times should win an award for their site. Those stats are out of this world!

I would also like to express my appreciation for the Libertarian in the General Election. Without them, this wouldn't have been possible. Always nice to have a spoiler hurt the other side every once in a long while.
 
[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346681326934650880?s=20[/TWEET]

Wasserman is with the Cook Report. I'm satisfied it's over.
 
I was hoping for DeKalb to finish off early voting reports to put Ossoff in the red, but that doesn't look likely and I need to work tomorrow. Ossoff should win by well over 10,000 votes, which makes any attempt at an extended legal fight on the election impossible... unless the GOP decides to completely go all in on unethical obstruction of democracy.
 
Warnock +0.83%, Purdue +0.03%

This is fun.

Stephanie Saul: Gov. Brian Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to the Senate in 2019, surmising that she would appeal to moderates. But she moved to the right, becoming a major Trump supporter.

Me: Only to be hung out to dry by him. She's now losing by 0.83%. Will she call up her husband and say, "Hubby dear, I have some very bad news for you. I won't have an inside track on what's happening to the companies in our stock portfolios. That Commie beat me."


Jennifer Medina: A win for Warnock would represent a win for the religious left, a group that has tried mightily to assert itself as the religious right has consolidated power in the Trump era.

Me: I remember an article several years back about the Religious Left mourning its lost political clout. I suspect that its day is past. It isn't as unified and coherent as the "Social Gospel" movement was a century ago. That movement flourished inside of mainline Protestantism, and that branch of Xianity isn't as big as it used to be.


Jennifer Medina: Other questions: what would a 50-50 split in the Senate mean for policy in a Biden-Harris administration? Could it mean $2,000 pandemic checks in the near future?

Me: Having seen Clinton and Obama wimp out as Presidents, there is a big danger of Biden doing that also. Biden will need to do some *very* visible things, like cancel a lot of student debt. I think that many activists remember what a disappointment Obama was, and they won't want a repeat of that experience.


Adam Nagourney: Tonight’s close races and Trump’s doomed attempt to block the Electoral College ratification in Congress seem likely to make him a weakened figure — even within the G.O.P.

Jim Rutenberg: A dual loss for Republicans in Georgia would deliver a verdict not only on Trump’s post-election political power but also on the politics of his false voter fraud narrative.

Let's see how the Republicans take their defeat. They didn't gloat about their victories in Congress, even though they performed several pct points better than expected. As to who might be doing the expecting, I consulted 538, a source I consider an excellent predictor of election results. 538's method is to use others' polls and estimate how reliable they are.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
NY Times should win an award for their site. Those stats are out of this world!
Click to expand...
I agree.
I would also like to express my appreciation for the Libertarian in the General Election. Without them, this wouldn't have been possible. Always nice to have a spoiler hurt the other side every once in a long while.
Click to expand...
I agree. We can also thank Jo Jorgensen for helping Biden win WI and GA and AZ. She was the Libertarian Presidential candidate.

I find it curious that right-wing commentators have not taken aim at the Libertarian Party for depriving their side of victories.
Jennifer Medina: Warnock invokes M.L.K.’s “beloved community” in a speech that sounds very much like a preacher’s sermon. “We have a choice to make,” he said. “Will we continue to play political games as people suffer?”

Mike Baker: “I am going to the Senate to work for all of Georgia, no matter who you cast your vote for in this election,” Warnock says.

Reid Epstein: Speaking on a livestream in front of a sign that read “Thank you, Georgia,” the Rev. Raphael Warnock, who’s leading Kelly Loeffler, stopped just short of declaring outright victory.
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Ossoff noses ahead with 98% in. MSNBC projects Warnock the winner.
 
Now Warnock +0.92, Ossoff +0.08 with 97% counted.

From Jon Ossoff - Ballotpedia
  • David Perdue (R) - 49.7% - 2,462,617
  • Jon Ossoff (D) - 47.9% - 2,374,519
  • Shane Hazel (L) - 2.3% - 115,039
So the Libertarian, SH, kept DP from winning by forcing the race into a runoff.
 
Treedbear said:
Ossoff noses ahead with 98% in. MSNBC projects Warnock the winner.
Click to expand...
The Associated Press has now done so,

Mike Baker: When Raphael Warnock was born, his senators were the segregationists Herman Talmadge and Richard Russell. He will now be the first Black Senator from Georgia.

I remember the name Talmadge from my childhood - that would likely have been the one.

Jennifer Medina: Warnock’s win comes after Republicans relentlessly attacked him as a radical and Marxist. But his win could ultimately give more power to Democratic moderates in a divided Senate.

I don't know if he ever responded. He could have responded that Karl Marx believed that religion is the opium of the people and that he isn't a drug dealer.
 
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