How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[ZiprHead]

Anonymous Offers Russian Soldiers Over $50K Worth of Bitcoin for Each Surrendered Tank (Report)

The intercontinental hacker collective – Anonymous – will reportedly pay $52,000 in BTC for a surrendered tank.
The notorious hacker organization – Anonymous – has reportedly offered Russian troops payments in bitcoin to hand over their tanks. The group would pay more than $52,000 in BTC for each surrendered combat vehicle.

BTC in Exchange for a Tank​

The Ukrainian side has been trying to stop the Russian invasion not only by weapons and direct combats but also by striking them digitally. A few days ago, Mykhailo Fedorov – Ukraine’s Vice PR – announced the government will create an IT army. “We need digital talents. There will be tasks for everyone. We continue to fight on the cyber front,” he explained.
The intercontinental hacker group – Anonymous – has also conducted several cyber-attacks on Russia. In just two days, the organization breached more than 300 Russian targets collecting over RUB 1 billion (around $10 million).

 

[Gospel]

Is this really live?



Edit: I mean the Putin announcement part at the time of this post.

Edit: It ended.

 

[Gospel]

The translation was painful but Putin seemed to claimed that the Ukrainian military has tanks in civilian areas and called them fascists for doing so.

 

[Politesse]

The translation was painful but Putin seemed to claimed that the Ukrainian military has tanks in civilian areas and called them fascists for doing so.

Whereas invading civilian spaces with his own tanks is just fine and dandy? He's really gone round the twist.

 

[Elixir]

Probably hard to find shells for it.

 

[Keith&Co.]

View attachment 37520

Probably hard to find shells for it.

Just start saying, "I wish i could find shells for my T-72" where your phone or Alexa can hear, then see what ads you start to get.

 

[SLD]

Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?

www.newyorker.com

Barbos frequently quotes John Mearshimer who has been very critical of US foreign policy in Ukraine before the war, going back to 2008 when we indicated we supported Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO. We should have anticipated the Russian response but we kept pushing regardless, refusing to acknowledge legitimate Russian security concerns.

He also says that Russia is only interested in breaking off the Donbas area of Ukraine and would stop without going into Eastern Ukraine. Earlier I predicted that would be as far as he went, and I was dead wrong. So I’m not sure I agree any longer With him. I think war has a way of expanding and getting out of control, and I think we are seeing that happening right now. Putin’s failures means he has to double down. He expected some kind of quick shock and awe victory which Ukrainian resistance has stalled out. The longer the fight continues, the more violence and escalation Putin has to use, and the more the war expands into something he didn’t foresee. He may have to completely occupy all of Ukraine in order to prevail, and he definitely doesn’t have the forces to do so, nor really the time needed. This war could last years. And if it does, really bad things will happen to both Ukraine and Russia.

Any kind of perceived military failure will seriously endanger Putin’s grip on power. If the war drags on for really just months, it will be perceived as a failure. Thats why he is escalating the shelling of the cities. He wants to force them to surrender. A long siege of Kiev will be bad for the Russians. If he can’t force Zelensky to surrender completely and soon (which he might) he may find himself out of power quickly and without warning. This could end very badly for him.

Another point Mearshimer makes is that we are focusing on the wrong threat; the larger threat to US interests is China. And to counter that, we need Russia as a friend. I tend to agree, but where I disagree is that we can do so with Putin in place. Obviously not after this fiasco. Furthermore, I think we are witnessing that Russia, aside from its nukes, is not much of a military threat. It can’t invade and occupy the Baltic’s, or Poland nor the rest of Europe. It’s conventional forces suck so far. Of course it might be able to use nuclear blackmail to achieve its aims. But I think it shows that we can counter a Chinese conventional threat without having to worry about our eastern flank in Europe.

Finally, I think this whole thing will inure to our benefit in the long run. If this turns out to be a quagmire, which it is as of now, then this will be his downfall, and Russia will be severely weakened for decades to come. So again, Mearshimer is wrong. Their failures will only help our abilities to counteract any issues with China. And China will see that. I think the quagmire will make them seriously re-evaluate any operation against Taiwan. The severity of any economic sanctions will also give them pause. They may keep up their rhetoric, but they will not want to see the consequences.

 

[Politesse]

View attachment 37520

Probably hard to find shells for it.

Just start saying, "I wish i could find shells for my T-72" where your phone or Alexa can hear, then see what ads you start to get.

"Tired of wearing a mask? Concerned about your civil liberties? Consider a move to sunny IDAHO! Where there is Room To Breathe (tm). * "

*six months free ammo for new residents who commit to a lease of 2 or more winters.

 

[lpetrich]

• Ukraine reportedly foiled a Zelensky assassination plot after a tipoff from Russian authorities - The Week
• Ukraine foils alleged plot to assassinate Zelenskyy, claims official | Euronews
• President Zelensky: Russia assassination plot foiled thanks to 'information from the FSB', Ukraine claims - inews.co.uk - "A plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reportedly been thwarted by the nation’s armed forces"
• Assassination attempt against Volodymyr Zelensky is foiled, Ukraine says - The Washington Post

From The Week:

Ukraine's Oleksiy Danilov confirmed Tuesday that officials were "recently tipped off that a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen special forces, was on its way to kill Zelensky," the Post writes. Interestingly, members of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) were reportedly the ones to alert Ukraine of the possible attack.

The Chechen special forces "were killed Saturday on the outskirts of Kyiv," adds the Post.

The FSB is the Russian State Security Service, the main successor of the Soviet Union's KGB.

 

[lpetrich]

• Germany seizes Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s $600m superyacht – report | Russia | The Guardian - "amburg authorities seized the 156-metre Dilbar as yachts belonging to five other Russian billionaires headed to the non-extradition Maldives"
• Germany seizes Russian billionaire Usmanov's yacht -Forbes | Reuters
• U.S. wants to seize Russian oligarchs' yachts, homes and jets. How is that legal? - "A new task force is leading the charge to seize proceeds from "the crimes of Russian oligarchs." The action is tied to a law used as a tool against terrorists and fugitives."

From The Guardian:

At 15,917 tons, it’s the world’s largest motor yacht by gross tonnage, and is typically staffed by a crew of 96 people, with space for 24 passengers in 12 suites. It has the largest pool ever installed on a yacht as well as two helicopter pads, a sauna, a beauty salon, and a gym.

At least five other superyachts owned by Russian billionaires are now anchored or cruising in Maldives, an Indian Ocean island nation that does not have an extradition treaty with the US, ship tracking data showed.

The vessels’ arrival in the archipelago off the coast of Sri Lanka follows the imposition of severe western sanctions on Russia.

The Clio superyacht, owned by Oleg Deripaska, the founder of aluminium giant Rusal, who was sanctioned by the US in 2018, was anchored off the capital Male on Wednesday, according to shipping database MarineTraffic.

The Titan, owned by Alexander Abramov, a cofounder of steel producer Evraz, arrived on 28 February.

Three more yachts owned by Russian billionaires were seen cruising in Maldives waters on Wednesday, the data showed. They include the 88-metre (288 ft) Nirvana owned by Russia’s richest man, Vladimir Potanin. Most vessels were last seen anchored in Middle Eastern ports earlier in the year.

Vladimir Putin, however, kept his yacht from that fate: Putin's Yacht Graceful Left Germany Amid Sanction Warnings: Report

 

[blastula]

Are all these videos fake too?

Sorry, can't see them in Russia.

Try these.

video1
video2
video3

I don't deny that russian forces (like any other forces) do on occasion produce collateral damage.

Mostly direct intentional damage.

But that particular video I was talking about is fake.

Yet still no proof from you.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are all these videos fake too?

Sorry, can't see them in Russia.

Try these.

video1
video2
video3

I don't deny that russian forces (like any other forces) do on occasion produce collateral damage.

Mostly direct intentional damage.

But that particular video I was talking about is fake.

Yet still no proof from you.

Let's be blunt. barbos could put himself in danger if he saw the truth. Russia is hiding what is occurring in Ukraine for a reason.

 

[Elixir]

Given what’s going on, even admitting that one is forbidden from seeing the truth sounds possibly dangerous.
Kudos to @barbos for stepping out.

But there are probably bigger fish to fry right now for the people responsible for seeing after such things. Billionaires making grumbling noises has to be Pootey’s primary concern right now, as far as “domestic security” goes.

 

[Gospel]

I don't think there is any real cause for concern for Russian citizens yet. IMO you'll know shit got real when Putin speaks English because he always seems to do so when something is really really important to him.

 

[Copernicus]

Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?

www.newyorker.com

Barbos frequently quotes John Mearshimer who has been very critical of US foreign policy in Ukraine before the war, going back to 2008 when we indicated we supported Ukrainian and Georgian membership in NATO. We should have anticipated the Russian response but we kept pushing regardless, refusing to acknowledge legitimate Russian security concerns.

He also says that Russia is only interested in breaking off the Donbas area of Ukraine and would stop without going into Eastern Ukraine. Earlier I predicted that would be as far as he went, and I was dead wrong. So I’m not sure I agree any longer With him. I think war has a way of expanding and getting out of control, and I think we are seeing that happening right now. Putin’s failures means he has to double down. He expected some kind of quick shock and awe victory which Ukrainian resistance has stalled out. The longer the fight continues, the more violence and escalation Putin has to use, and the more the war expands into something he didn’t foresee. He may have to completely occupy all of Ukraine in order to prevail, and he definitely doesn’t have the forces to do so, nor really the time needed. This war could last years. And if it does, really bad things will happen to both Ukraine and Russia.

Any kind of perceived military failure will seriously endanger Putin’s grip on power. If the war drags on for really just months, it will be perceived as a failure. Thats why he is escalating the shelling of the cities. He wants to force them to surrender. A long siege of Kiev will be bad for the Russians. If he can’t force Zelensky to surrender completely and soon (which he might) he may find himself out of power quickly and without warning. This could end very badly for him.

Another point Mearshimer makes is that we are focusing on the wrong threat; the larger threat to US interests is China. And to counter that, we need Russia as a friend. I tend to agree, but where I disagree is that we can do so with Putin in place. Obviously not after this fiasco. Furthermore, I think we are witnessing that Russia, aside from its nukes, is not much of a military threat. It can’t invade and occupy the Baltic’s, or Poland nor the rest of Europe. It’s conventional forces suck so far. Of course it might be able to use nuclear blackmail to achieve its aims. But I think it shows that we can counter a Chinese conventional threat without having to worry about our eastern flank in Europe.

Finally, I think this whole thing will inure to our benefit in the long run. If this turns out to be a quagmire, which it is as of now, then this will be his downfall, and Russia will be severely weakened for decades to come. So again, Mearshimer is wrong. Their failures will only help our abilities to counteract any issues with China. And China will see that. I think the quagmire will make them seriously re-evaluate any operation against Taiwan. The severity of any economic sanctions will also give them pause. They may keep up their rhetoric, but they will not want to see the consequences.

That's a very interesting interview with Mearsheimer. It is regrettable that barbos mostly never wanted to discuss anything about the videos he posted unless it supported his narrative, so he just kept making minimal replies to posts about them and then kept insisting that nobody had watched the videos. But I suspect his English comprehension may not have been good enough to really follow them, and he may have only come across the videos as references in Russian media somewhere.

I agree with you about Mearsheimer's claims about Putin's intentions, and that came off to me very strongly in the interview. In fact, I found some of his remarks a bit weaselly at times towards the end. The interviewer did a good job of pressing him on his claims about Putin's intentions. Mearsheimer wanted to cling to the line that Russia was pursuing its "legitimate security concerns" and that this was all about big power politics. He pooh-poohed the claim that Putin was trying to reestablish the Russian or Soviet Empire, even when confronted with some pretty damning evidence to the contrary, including Putin's infamous historical essay. I was surprised that he seemed to be hanging on to his defense with the rather weak reference to a quote, where Putin said “Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.” I was astonished that he saw this quote as supporting his claim that Putin didn't want to conquer Kiev, just establish a neutral or friendly regime there. The Soviet Union was a Communist regime with an ideology that was entirely contrary to the one that has made Putin the wealthiest man in the world. True, he was formerly a Party member. However, he doesn't want that back. He still wants Ukraine, but not as a Soviet Socialist Republic in some kind of Union. He wants Ukraine to be transformed into "little Russia" again and the Ukrainian nationalist movement to be exterminated. Putin is more into the pre-Soviet tsarist empire, and he uses tsarist language to support that

So Mearsheimer clings to this idea that Putin will just put some quisling at the head of a much diminished, but compliant, Ukraine just because he takes Kyiv and possibly kills all the current leadership. As if Ukrainians in western Ukraine would stop fighting or supporting insurgents in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. Somehow, his handpicked quisling leader is going to be accepted as the leader of the rest of Ukraine. And then the US should work really, really hard to be friends with Russia, i.e. be practical and objective and pay no attention to the immorality of betraying Ukraine and NATO allies. Rather, the US should just turn its back on Europe. The great United States should pivot to China with its newfound friend Russia in some kind of fraternal kindred spirit. (This is the same China that is currently buying all of that oil and gas from Russia and abstained from voting to condemn Russia in the UN resolution.) Perhaps all the other little countries in Europe and Asia would fall in line with the great powerhouse USA-Russia alliance? Mearsheimer strikes me as suffering from a massive delusion of how it would be possible to reshape US foreign policy in such a way that would be so bizarre and unrealistic. And then the president that does all of this somehow manages to get reelected. How is this vision of the future objective or realistic?

 

[lpetrich]

Alisher Usmanov's yacht:
156.0m Dilbar Superyacht | Luxury Motor Yacht | Superyachts.com

At 15,917 tons, the 156-meter superyacht features entertainment and recreation spaces never before seen on a yacht. These include a 25-meter swimming pool that holds an incredible 180 m³ of water, the largest pool ever to have been installed on a yacht.

DILBAR yacht (Lurssen, 156m, 2016)

DILBAR is a 156.0 m Motor Yacht, built in Germany by Lurssen and delivered in 2016.

Her top speed is 22.5 kn and her power comes from a diesel electric engine. She can accommodate up to 24 guests in 12 staterooms, with 96 crew members. She has a gross tonnage of 15917.0 GT and a 23.5 m beam.

Dilbar: 10 facts about Alisher Usmanov's 156m Lürssen superyacht

4. Dilbar has the largest swimming pool ever installed on a superyacht

Measuring 25 metres long, the swimming pool on board Dilbar can hold an impressive amount of water – 180 cubic metres of water in fact. The swimming pool on Dilbar is reportedly the largest pool to ever be installed on board a superyacht.

5. There is a garden on board

For guests missing the shore, Dilbar is equipped with an expansive garden complete with a specially developed variety of grass that tolerates salt air. The designer of the garden, German architect and founder of Yacht-Green Axel Massmann, disclosed that plants from “Mediterranean areas” were chosen because “Dilbar tends to be between the South of France, northern Spain and sometimes Cyprus.” By choosing plants grown within EU waters, Dilbar was also spared the headache of customs regulations that forbid the import of foreign plants.

6. The yacht is powered by a 30,000KW electric diesel power plant
...

7. Over 1,100km of cables were installed on board
...

8. There are two helipads

Helipads are a key asset to helping owners and guests make smooth and swift journeys from ship to shore. Dilbar however is equipped with not one but two helipads where the H175 helicopter can land to drop off or pick up. The first is located forward at the bow of the yacht, while the second is situated aft on the top deck flybridge.

...
10. The interiors feature over 1,000 sofa cushions

The amount of living space on board meant that Winch Design had to decorate the interiors with plentiful soft furnishings. Dilbar has been outfitted with over 1,000 custom-made sofa cushions on board, with each and every one uniquely designed to fit the interior scheme.

 

[lpetrich]

Oops, duplicate.

Vessel Gross Tonnage Calculator | Delaware Business Incorporators, Inc.

A convention in ship features that one must watch out for: tonnage is a measure of volume, not mass. In particular, 1 ton of tonnage = 100 cubic feet = 2.83 cubic meters.

Thus, Alisher Usmanov's yacht has an internal volume of about 45,000 cubic meters. With a length of 156 meters and a beam (width) of 23.5 m, that means a rectangular-solid height of 12.3 m. A rule of thumb for correcting for the ship's shape is to divide by 2/3, and that gives us an estimated vertical extent of 18.4 m.

• At Least 5 Russian Billionaires' Yachts Are Now in Maldives: Report
• Yacht seized as U.S. ramps up oligarch sanctions so Putin 'feels the squeeze' | Reuters

Some Russian-oligarch yachts:

• Vladimir Putin(?) -- Russia(?) -- GRACEFUL yacht (Blohm & Voss, 82m, 2014)
• Alisher Usmanov -- Hamburg, Germany -- DILBAR yacht (Lurssen, 156m, 2016)
• Igor Sechin -- La Ciotat, France -- AMORE VERO yacht (Oceanco, 85.6m, 2013)
• Alexander Abramov -- Maldives -- TITAN yacht (Abeking & Rasmussen, 78.43m, 2010)
• Oleg Deripaska -- Maldives -- CLIO yacht (Lurssen, 72.6m, 2004)
• Vladimir Potanin -- Maldives -- NIRVANA yacht (Oceanco, 88.5m, 2012)
• Viktor Rashnikov -- Maldives -- OCEAN VICTORY yacht (Fincantieri, 140m, 2014)

Source: shipping database Marine Traffic

 

[Tigers!]

I think it's up to two options: either Putin will annex the East and South in their entirety, and cripple the rest with an unprecedented refugee crisis and economic turmoil, or it will use some of the less strategically important pro-Russian regions as a tool to "democratically" sway the Ukrainian political process. Basically some sort of veto for the Russian puppet regions in Ukrainian foreign policy.

None of the above.

Unfortunately for Russia the Russian owned Ria Novosti prematurely declared victory at 08:00 on Saturday the 26th of February 2022 and made the intentions perfectly clear: A reintegration of all of Ukraine, which along with Belorussia and Russia proper marks the return of Russia to its glorious former state as a world power.

The announcement was quickly deleted. Alas, too late. The Wayback machine had already republished it in full. You can read it here. Or rather, you can feed it into Google Translate and read it there. I did. It's worth doing.

In that announcement Russia is totally upfront about its motivation and what it thinks will happen at the imminent conclusion of the "virtual civil war" in Ukraine. It will see in a new world order, and no other country or power block will be able to do anything about it.

Oops.

 

[steve_bank]

The Ukrainian economy in prat cal terms is gone. Ukraine is gone. Even if Russia immediately withdrew It would be difficult for the Ukrainians to get back to where they were before the invasion.

At this point I am for complete and total isolation of Russia. Theridk is what an unstable Putin may do.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The Ukrainian economy in prat cal terms is gone. Ukraine is gone. Even if Russia immediately withdrew It would be difficult for the Ukrainians to get back to where they were before the invasion.

At this point I am for complete and total isolation of Russia. Theridk is what an unstable Putin may do.

Zelensky's life is pretty much the tipping point for that one.