How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

You are absolutely right. But Ukraine doesn't have enough leverage to force Russia to make that kind of concession. It could in theory continue a war of attrition until Russia is bankrupt, but the cost of human lives and time would be too great. At some point Ukraine has to decide whether Crimea is worth it, even if it does send a wrong message.

There is a third option. Ukraine's proposals during the peace talks are reasonable from the point of view of third party observers. Putin, being Putin, rejects them out of hand. A static front is formed in the Donbass region with a significantly reduced amount of contact between the two armies. Putin wilfully lives in fantasy world and ignores all the signs that Russia is facing economic ruin from sanctions. Putin then has to give up Crimea just so he can consolidate (reconsolidate?) his hold on the average Russian citizen.

Just so we're clear, I'm classifying this scenario as, "possible, but I wouldn't bet any more than I'm prepared to lose that it would happen"

We don't yet know where the line will be drawn, but Crimea will probably lay solidly on the Russian side of that line.

Absolutely. However, conventional wisdom stated that Ukraine shouldn't have had a standing conventional military this far into the conflict. My default response to everything going on at the moment is I have no fucking clue, with the exception of whether this invasion was justified. Clearly it wasn't.

One thing of interest is this, had Ukraine not had any semblance of a military, Ukraine would have been annexed by Russia already at this point. And currently, Ukraine doesn't have a significant military. It just turned out, neither did Russia (when it came to boots on the ground).

Putin has been stalling negotiations since they started. And any progress is solely up to him (or the Oligarchs if they so choose).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I agree with Trump. If the elections in Russia were open and fair, it is very likely that Putin would either lose or be held to a more reserved position on these sorts of actions.

 

[TV and credit cards]

You are absolutely right. But Ukraine doesn't have enough leverage to force Russia to make that kind of concession. It could in theory continue a war of attrition until Russia is bankrupt, but the cost of human lives and time would be too great. At some point Ukraine has to decide whether Crimea is worth it, even if it does send a wrong message.

There is a third option. Ukraine's proposals during the peace talks are reasonable from the point of view of third party observers. Putin, being Putin, rejects them out of hand. A static front is formed in the Donbass region with a significantly reduced amount of contact between the two armies. Putin wilfully lives in fantasy world and ignores all the signs that Russia is facing economic ruin from sanctions. Putin then has to give up Crimea just so he can consolidate (reconsolidate?) his hold on the average Russian citizen.

Just so we're clear, I'm classifying this scenario as, "possible, but I wouldn't bet any more than I'm prepared to lose that it would happen"

We don't yet know where the line will be drawn, but Crimea will probably lay solidly on the Russian side of that line.

Absolutely. However, conventional wisdom stated that Ukraine shouldn't have had a standing conventional military this far into the conflict. My default response to everything going on at the moment is I have no fucking clue, with the exception of whether this invasion was justified. Clearly it wasn't.

One thing of interest is this, had Ukraine not had any semblance of a military, Ukraine would have been annexed by Russia already at this point. And currently, Ukraine doesn't have a significant military. It just turned out, neither did Russia (when it came to boots on the ground).

Putin has been stalling negotiations since they started. And any progress is solely up to him (or the Oligarchs if they so choose).

I don't think they're going to be stalling much longer. While every day means more Ukrainian deaths, the tide is turning against the Russian military and their economy is quickly getting trashed.
Russia is going through a brain drain and it looks like they are reverting to a Soviet style economy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin cost a lot of rich people in Russia a great deal of money. He is possibly trying to figure out how he can come out of this still in power. The propaganda can work on the people, but the Oligarchs know their bottom lines.

 

[SLD]

Throughout history wars have always started out with the idea that they will be short and sweet. We will kick their asses and be back home by Christmas. US Civil War, Napoleonic wars, WWI, Operation Barbarossa.

such optimism seldom lasts past the initial shocks of losses.

The West must be prepared for a long and bloody war in Ukraine. Like several years. And it will be extremely expensive too. We just voted a $13 billion aid package for Ukraine. Russia might partly get their shit together, and the war will settle down into a stalemate with excessive daily bombardments of cities and towns. Neither side advancing particularly far from where they are now.

It’s possible that Ukrainian counterattacks will work. But they could also face significantly stiffer resistance in the south and East.

Regardless, Putin cannot settle for anything short of total victory. Anything less shatters his myth and destroys his power. Thus he must continue to plow on despite the losses. But with Western support Ukraine can fend off such attacks. Thus we could see a stalemate and a long war.

The issue is money for both sides. How long and how much can the west sustain aid to Ukraine? Can the Russian economy repair itself and go on a war footing to replace their losses? Or do the people of Moscow and Saint Petersburg revolt at some point?

The key may turn out to be China. They may not like paying so much for oil for too long. They are the world’s biggest importer of oil. If they start to withdraw their support for Russia, what happens? But Putin simply won’t give up. He’s in a fight to the death quite literally. I think the only way this ends is with a bullet to his skull, either by a popular uprising or military coup. I just don’t know when that will happen. Everything I read about such indicates that he has long been preparing for both events and ensuring that none can happen. Maybe. But sometimes autocrats fall unexpectedly. Let’s hope it’s soon, but I think we have to be prepared for a long war in the meantime. If Ukraine and the west prevail, it will bring about a far better world!

 

[Jayjay]

I might let Crimea go. It was Russian originally anyway. Elsewhere I would not give an inch, not even Donbas.

But if the people there don’t want to be part of Ukraine, why force them? That just guarantees future conflict.

I say let Crimea go, but Russia has to pay for it, but not Donbas or any other area. If the people don’t want to be part of Ukraine, let them emigrate to Russia.

Russia also has to pay reparations for the damage they’ve done.

What seems fair to an outside observer is not the same as what is achievable.

Russia's initial plans of a quick victory were foiled, but it is still very much in position to hold Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukraine lacks the offensive weapons to take back the territory, and East of Dnipro river the logistics favor Russia; it can attack from north, east, and now south, and all that Russia needs to do to stop Ukraine from advancing is to destroy the bridges.

And who's going to force Russia to pay reparations? Historically, only countries who've been utterly defeated and captured in wars have ever had to do it. Russia is merely being inconvenienced a bit. I think something akin to USSR vs. Finland will happen... Ukraine "wins" by avoiding occupation, but has to give up huge tracts of land and access to Sea of Azov and maybe Black Sea.

I hope that I'm wrong and that somehow NATO can provide Ukraine with enough defensive and offensive weapons to continue the fight, and that the state of Russian army is even worse than it seems, but right now, all I'm seeing is that Russia is refocusing its war effort and trying to get their shit together, and Ukraine has not made much progress except in the outskirts of Kyiv.

 

[Jayjay]

Putin has been stalling negotiations since they started. And any progress is solely up to him (or the Oligarchs if they so choose).

As a side note, it's a common misconception that the "oligarchs" would somehow be able to tell Putin what to do. Maybe 20 years ago. But now, they are mere servants of the system. They were not informed of the war and nobody asked their opinion, and they are not in a position to protest. The real power in Russia is in the hands of "Siloviks", i.e. the various heads of military and intelligence agencies close to Putin, and even among them, there is an inner circle consisting of Putin's old KGB pals that share his worldview and ideology.

 

[SLD]

An interesting aside, the Economist is reporting that Chinese firms are refusing to provide aviation parts to Russia because of links to the United States. They don’t want to deal with the sanctions. This leaves Russia, which imported over $800M in parts from the US alone last year, in a serious lurch. Perhaps that explains their failure to dominate the air over Ukraine. They just don’t have the logistical support necessary to sustain the air campaign long enough. Maybe. Russia really shot themselves in the foot on this one.

 

[Jayjay]

The key may turn out to be China. They may not like paying so much for oil for too long. They are the world’s biggest importer of oil. If they start to withdraw their support for Russia, what happens? But Putin simply won’t give up. He’s in a fight to the death quite literally. I think the only way this ends is with a bullet to his skull, either by a popular uprising or military coup. I just don’t know when that will happen. Everything I read about such indicates that he has long been preparing for both events and ensuring that none can happen. Maybe. But sometimes autocrats fall unexpectedly. Let’s hope it’s soon, but I think we have to be prepared for a long war in the meantime. If Ukraine and the west prevail, it will bring about a far better world!

One can always dream!

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

An interesting aside, the Economist is reporting that Chinese firms are refusing to provide aviation parts to Russia because of links to the United States. They don’t want to deal with the sanctions. This leaves Russia, which imported over $800M in parts from the US alone last year, in a serious lurch. Perhaps that explains their failure to dominate the air over Ukraine. They just don’t have the logistical support necessary to sustain the air campaign long enough. Maybe. Russia really shot themselves in the foot on this one.

Their pilots in Ukraine continue to use dumb bombs instead of guided missiles. The whole system is rotten. They're supposed to be developing a new fighter since 2010 but it's still on the drawing board. But they sure know how to get their superyachts! Woot!

This is what happens when you don't have a diversity of input but instead surround yourself with yes men and silence any opposition. Not to mention stealing from the state to enrich yourself and your buddies personally. Lots of bright, intelligent, smart people just up and leave the sinking ship. What could be more obvious? We're finding out that the depth and breath of corruption in Putinstan is far greater than what we had supposed. That corruption is evident in every sector of their military effort.

 

[steve_bank]

China sees the US as an interfering foe. Russia is also a market for China.

Chinese and Russian communists never got along. It has been reported in Russia there is a 'yellow peril; view of China analogous to the Noath American fear of Chinese immigrants.There was a Cold War ear incident. Russian soldiers crossed tye borfer, dropped their pants, and crapped in a railroad station.

I think the China Russia relationship today is a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

China has been involved in land grabs. They can't overly condemn Russia in a serious way.

If the govt wanted it I think any goods would be shipped to Russia.

Neither China nor Russia has 'friends'. From all I have heard China makes decisions based solely on its own long term starter interests. The interests of anyone else is irrelevant. The term for both Russia and China may be Jingoism.

Ukrain shows Russia woud be no match for NATO. A short air campaign would probably decimate Russian tanks and artillery if NATO chose to do so.

 

[bilby]

Chinese and Russian communists never got along.

The caption on this poster reads "Always Together!", which rather suggests that you are wrong.

Certainly they had significant differences, but "never got along" is nonsense.

 

[Tigers!]

Chinese and Russian communists never got along.

The caption on this poster reads "Always Together!", which rather suggests that you are wrong.
View attachment 37910
Certainly they had significant differences, but "never got along" is nonsense.

Where is the Russian's right hand? With a bayonet pointed at the Chinese back?

 

[steve_bank]

Looks like old War propaganda.

 

[Jayjay]

Yes, gently caressing your top assassins mouth, face and crotch with something that looks like a miniature dildo isn't weird at all.

 

[Hermit]

Chinese and Russian communists never got along.

The Soviet Union was a strong supporter of China's fight against the Kuomintang, and its support continued for years after the communists won. Ideological differences between the two countries emerged after Stalin's death, but the final break did not happen until 1961, when their

ideological differences provoked the PRC's formal denunciation of Soviet communism as the work of "revisionist traitors" in the USSR. The PRC also declared the Soviet Union social imperialist.

Details of the Sino-Soviet split here.

 

[Copernicus]

Also, consider the  Sino-Soviet border conflict in 1969. Note that the Uighurs at that time were part of the mix. They participated in pogroms against the Han Chinese population.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The damage is not to Russia it is to our entire existence once the nukes start flying like that bugs bunny cartoon where they keep bringing out bigger and bigger weapons…
Russia is saying to Ukraine do not attempt to control our economy or we are prepared to blow you to smithereenies

Ukraine wasn't trying to control Russia's economy in the first place. They were just refusing to kowtow to Moscow.

And we have seen the majority of Russian missiles fail when someone pulled the trigger. I expect it to be much worse with their nukes. Their boomers are hardly able to patrol and would most likely be sunk before they could even try to fire their birds.

I can assure you that any military that has created nuclear weapons knows how to use them.. even if their fodder peons do not.

Recent reports from Ukraine seem to tell us that as many as 60% of Russian rockets fired in Ukraine fail to launch or fail to explode. Search Youtube, unexploded Russian rockets for images. It may well be that Russia's tactical nuclear armed rockets will likewise be duds.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Throughout history wars have always started out with the idea that they will be short and sweet. We will kick their asses and be back home by Christmas. US Civil War, Napoleonic wars, WWI, Operation Barbarossa.

such optimism seldom lasts past the initial shocks of losses.

The West must be prepared for a long and bloody war in Ukraine. Like several years. And it will be extremely expensive too. We just voted a $13 billion aid package for Ukraine. Russia might partly get their shit together, and the war will settle down into a stalemate with excessive daily bombardments of cities and towns. Neither side advancing particularly far from where they are now.

It’s possible that Ukrainian counterattacks will work. But they could also face significantly stiffer resistance in the south and East.

Regardless, Putin cannot settle for anything short of total victory. Anything less shatters his myth and destroys his power. Thus he must continue to plow on despite the losses. But with Western support Ukraine can fend off such attacks. Thus we could see a stalemate and a long war.

The issue is money for both sides. How long and how much can the west sustain aid to Ukraine? Can the Russian economy repair itself and go on a war footing to replace their losses? Or do the people of Moscow and Saint Petersburg revolt at some point?

The key may turn out to be China. They may not like paying so much for oil for too long. They are the world’s biggest importer of oil. If they start to withdraw their support for Russia, what happens? But Putin simply won’t give up. He’s in a fight to the death quite literally. I think the only way this ends is with a bullet to his skull, either by a popular uprising or military coup. I just don’t know when that will happen. Everything I read about such indicates that he has long been preparing for both events and ensuring that none can happen. Maybe. But sometimes autocrats fall unexpectedly. Let’s hope it’s soon, but I think we have to be prepared for a long war in the meantime. If Ukraine and the west prevail, it will bring about a far better world!

What may matter most is time. Russia has not been a major economic power for some years now. It has a GDP about that of Italy or Canada. And now it is going to get worse. Much worse. Tough sanctions are going to drag Russia down to failed state status. Long term, It cannot hold Ukraine. Putin has woken up a sleeping giant, NATO, and other possible Russian victims. UIS politics will in the future make going soft on Russia a political third rail.

It may take a decade of all of this for the average Russian to grasp just how big a mistake Putin and his crew were. And to demand changes that cannot be easily suppressed.

 

[steve_bank]

Are you conjuring up Yamamoto who allegedly said the same thing in Japn at the time of Pearl Harbor, we have woken a sleeping giant.

An appropriate reference.

I wonder if Putin is actually in control of the military. He may not be able to stop it even if he wanted to. The usual military coup if he tried?

From analysis I heard Russians have the sane kind of view on Chinese as North America had, the Yellow Peril. North Korean workers in Russia have low status.

It was resorted in the past Russia has a health problem, part of it being nutrition. They have a albor problem. Decling birth rate and nobody who wantss to move there. Except maybe Snowden. I hope Russia is everything he hoped it woud]l be.

That is probably one reason Ptuin demanded that foreign business not move out. They can't loose workers.