Jimmy Higgins
Contributor
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2001
- Messages
- 44,254
- Basic Beliefs
- Calvinistic Atheist
One thing of interest is this, had Ukraine not had any semblance of a military, Ukraine would have been annexed by Russia already at this point. And currently, Ukraine doesn't have a significant military. It just turned out, neither did Russia (when it came to boots on the ground).There is a third option. Ukraine's proposals during the peace talks are reasonable from the point of view of third party observers. Putin, being Putin, rejects them out of hand. A static front is formed in the Donbass region with a significantly reduced amount of contact between the two armies. Putin wilfully lives in fantasy world and ignores all the signs that Russia is facing economic ruin from sanctions. Putin then has to give up Crimea just so he can consolidate (reconsolidate?) his hold on the average Russian citizen.You are absolutely right. But Ukraine doesn't have enough leverage to force Russia to make that kind of concession. It could in theory continue a war of attrition until Russia is bankrupt, but the cost of human lives and time would be too great. At some point Ukraine has to decide whether Crimea is worth it, even if it does send a wrong message.
Just so we're clear, I'm classifying this scenario as, "possible, but I wouldn't bet any more than I'm prepared to lose that it would happen"
Absolutely. However, conventional wisdom stated that Ukraine shouldn't have had a standing conventional military this far into the conflict. My default response to everything going on at the moment is I have no fucking clue, with the exception of whether this invasion was justified. Clearly it wasn't.We don't yet know where the line will be drawn, but Crimea will probably lay solidly on the Russian side of that line.
Putin has been stalling negotiations since they started. And any progress is solely up to him (or the Oligarchs if they so choose).