Brexit has happened

[Bronzeage]

Back to the Germans sitting around the table. One guy asks "What if we had something like that? I mean, suppose Europeans stopped trying to kill each once every 30 or 40 years and we just worked and made stuff to sell to each other?"

The other Germans looked at him in amazement. It was a crazy idea, but it just might work.

...and that German was called Winston Churchill.

True story.

Give some credit to Harry Truman and his Marshall Plan. (BTW, Truman's gt-gt-grandfather Hans Michael Gutknecht was born in Prussia.)

One of the more depressing things about Brexit is I have yet to meet anyone in favor of Brexit who has any grasp of economics. The idea that Britain could maintain their economy after leaving the European Union and the Common Market is silly to the point of lunacy.

Didn't I learn at this very board that Boris Johnson based his stance on Brexit solely on what would garner him more votes? And that the Government went along with the referendum only because they thought that even the hoi polloi wouldn't be stupid enough to vote Leave?

Success has a thousand fathers and failure is an orphan.

It's never good to assume someone took a particular action because they are stupid. There are many unknown factors in play and the smartest move doesn't always work out as expected.

In the case of Brexit, it's all pretty fucking stupid.

 

[Gospel]

In the case of Brexit, it's all pretty fucking stupid.

Seems that way. You won't be alive to see the results so I'll make sure my kid's kids remind your kid's kids of what you said here.

 

[steve_bank]

Hmmm... I always thought the big Irish migration to the US had something to do with the potato famine.

Oh that was definitely a factor. But there were lots of other ones. It didn't take place in a vacuum.
Brits would rather talk about that factor mainly because they can disavow responsibility for that at least.
Tom

FWIW, my ancestors from Ireland were Presbyterians who came to the New World a century before your Catholic ancestors. They left the Emerald Isle because they were at risk of violence from your papists!

Protestants 1
Catholics 0

 

[TomC]

I apologize for starting a derail with a flippant response. It was simplistic and sarcastic.

I still don't know how well the Brexiteers are handling the Irish border situation. Nor do I trust much of any media reporting on the big issues there. Too many axes to grind. Too many agendas to support.
Tom

 

[steve_bank]

I don't remember deatils from reporting. I rember it quickly affected some towns. There was 'buyer's remorse'.

Part of it was having a unique currency. Part of it was something about weights and measures units and requiremnts. Somebody can correct me. It may have been about an EU requirement that sales by weights even locally had to be transacted in EU standard units. Kilograms instead of pounds or anything else.

And there was an issue of open borders and migration.

 

[Gospel]

Nor do I trust much of any media reporting on the big issues there. Too many axes to grind. Too many agendas to support.

The fact that all the major outlets are for-profit news corporations is enough to warrant distrust in unbias coverage. Every time I see a talking head I treat them similar to a bookmark leading to actual literature in a book. They have a history of sturring the pot &/or flat out fear-mongering for profit. It's just what they do. In short, they are good for telling you that something happened, but the why something happened (or is happening) is largely a projection of what their owners want you to think.

 

[Gospel]

I don't remember deatils from reporting. I rember it quickly affected some towns. There was 'buyer's remorse'.

Part of it was having a unique currency. Part of it was something about weights and measures units and requiremnts. Somebody can correct me. It may have been about an EU requirement that sales by weights even locally had to be transacted in EU standard units. Kilograms instead of pounds or anything else.

And there was an issue of open borders and migration.

First off I must say I recognize that Brexit was essentially doing something you don't fully understand and desperately trying to find a way to deal with the after-effects later. With that said, the EU has no intention of making good deals with the UK as there is no incentive, in fact, it runs against the principles of having a union in the first place.

No surprise Pikachu required.

 

[Bronzeage]

In the case of Brexit, it's all pretty fucking stupid.

Seems that way. You won't be alive to see the results so I'll make sure my kid's kids remind your kid's kids of what you said here.

Stupid has a poor shelf life and doesn't age well. Only a despotic tyrannical government can sustain economic misery on it's population for multiple generations. Who would vote for the candidate who promises, "Vote for me and be hungry and cold for the next 30 winters and I'll make sure your grandchildren can live better."

As for future generation's thoughts about what we say today, I'm reminded that the succession of the Confederate States from the Union was sold to the people on the basis of control, sovereignty, and free trade. That was a stupid idea then, no matter how well received, and in hindsight, an incredibly stupid idea.

At least the people who sold Brexit to the public weren't stupid enough to tell everyone it would take a generation of suffering before it finally paid off. I imagine there was a closed door meeting where they all agreed to act as if everything would be rosy until it couldn't be denied and then deal with the hardship of waiting for the benefits by telling everyone, "This is what you voted for, deal with it."

 

[TomC]

The fact that all the major outlets are for-profit news corporations is enough to warrant distrust in unbias coverage. Every time I see a talking head I treat them similar to a bookmark leading to actual literature in a book. They have a history of sturring the pot &/or flat out fear-mongering for profit. It's just what they do. In short, they are good for telling you that something happened, but the why something happened (or is happening) is largely a projection of what their owners want you to think.

This is why I ask questions about the Irish border.

I'm 63. I've got a lot of history and understanding about the USA because I've always lived here. It's harder to get fake news past me, when it's my home country.

GB and Ireland are not home. I don't pretend to understand the political landscape there.
I know there have been Troubles. I believe that Brexit won the referendum in England and Wales, but lost handily in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If those people decide that rejoining the EU is worth breaking up Great Britain, do the English have any moral, legal, or military ability to prevent it?
Tom

 

[Gospel]

The fact that all the major outlets are for-profit news corporations is enough to warrant distrust in unbias coverage. Every time I see a talking head I treat them similar to a bookmark leading to actual literature in a book. They have a history of sturring the pot &/or flat out fear-mongering for profit. It's just what they do. In short, they are good for telling you that something happened, but the why something happened (or is happening) is largely a projection of what their owners want you to think.

This is why I ask questions about the Irish border.

I'm 63. I've got a lot of history and understanding about the USA because I've always lived here. It's harder to get fake news past me, when it's my home country.

GB and Ireland are not home. I don't pretend to understand the political landscape there.
I know there have been Troubles. I believe that Brexit won the referendum in England and Wales, but lost handily in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If those people decide that rejoining the EU is worth breaking up Great Britain, do the English have any moral, legal, or military ability to prevent it?
Tom

Yeah, My opinions on many countries (even the one I live in) is based on limited information and is mostly uninformed. However in order to be informed I have to speak so that the informed can inform me. With that said, the North Ireland and Republic of Ireland border is above my pay grade. If I were to take a guess on how it's doing, it's continuing as it was with heightened tensions. Something like how the US does while the Red Vs Blue gang wars carry on.

 

[Gospel]

Just picked this up for the weekend. I'll keep the Irish people in mind.

 

[TomC]

Just picked this up for the weekend. I'll keep the Irish people in mind.
View attachment 38047

I know you well enough to anticipate your posts.
Tom

 

[steve_bank]

Of corse most media is biased in some way, the humans presenting news have thepr own views.The idea of an unrestricted free press is that in the long run truth does come out.

If yiu sit at home watching news with little intweraction with the world around you then you will be limited. The onus is on the indivudual to have sufficient understanding to be able to understand and differentiate fact form fiction.

A free press requires a suffient level of knowledge and intelligemce among citizens.

I listen to BBC radio and watch BBC world news on TV. on the local stations there are news shows form France and from Japan. There is also a new staion NEWSY that does decent reporting. On our public radio station there is reporting from Canada.

 

[Metaphor]

This is why I ask questions about the Irish border.

I'm 63. I've got a lot of history and understanding about the USA because I've always lived here. It's harder to get fake news past me, when it's my home country.

GB and Ireland are not home. I don't pretend to understand the political landscape there.
I know there have been Troubles. I believe that Brexit won the referendum in England and Wales, but lost handily in Northern Ireland and Scotland. If those people decide that rejoining the EU is worth breaking up Great Britain, do the English have any moral, legal, or military ability to prevent it?
Tom

I think if the Scottish people want to leave the UK, they should be allowed to quietly leave. In fact I think England should give them a gentle nudge out the door. Scotland gets more allocated in UK government spending than is raised from Scotland in taxes to the UK. And they were only united because some inbred royal married another inbred royal a few centuries ago, or something like that.

 

[bilby]

EU is like democracy, a pain in the ass. But we are much better off with it, than the alternative. Putin loves Brexit. It weakens Europe. Boris Johnson and company sold so many lies about the money they'd save, how the UK would have the upper hand in negotiations. None of it was true. They began hedging those statements the second they won the Brexit vote. Britain isn't dying over this, but they will be weaker for it.

The alternative is entirely up to the EU and UK. If they want to maintain the western world's strength against Putin and Co. they can totally do that post Brexit. It's not like the EU doesn't have great relations with Non-Member members (glares at money laundering Switzerland). As far weaker, that's yet to be seen.

Nah, it's definitely true. The UK cannot afford to maintain the pre-Brexit level of defence spending, or even her other commitments domestically, because they just took a massive cut in their abilities to make money.

Everyone is fussing about right now because they are going through drug withdrawal. Financially weaker? Temporarily.

Permanently, unless they one day rejoin the EU.

Democratically weaker? Not one bit.

Massively so, as they are currently an effective one party state. Everyone hates the Tories, but they can't be thrown out of office because the opposition is fragmented both politically and geographically.

UK population pissed off? 100%. They'll get it together cause they got shit to trade.

Except that they really don't. The UK is a tiny and fairly unproductive island. They got HUGE by having a empire that spanned the world (now gone); Then stayed huge by a combination of tradition and strong trading relationships with their immediate neighbours, that largely offset the loss of those relationships with the former empire. Brexit has irreparably smashed that trading relationship.

To my knowledge, the US and China are their most important trade partners

Then your knowledge is sadly lacking. The UK's pre Brexit trade with the rest of the EU absolutely dwarfed their trade with the US and China combined.

so the only real obstacle in the UK's way is a bitter and defensive (afraid of a succeeding UK) EU. That's just my simple-minded take.

The EU have been incredibly reasonable, and as kind as possible given the fact that the UK told them to fuck off.

The British press have spun the unavoidable and obvious consequences of Brexit as some kind of vindictiveness by the EU; But they have been very kind indeed, in allowing the UK to retain some of their privileges of membership long after their departure, and letting the UK government unilaterally extend transitional arrangements.

Making UK exporters do the same paperwork, and pay the same tariffs and taxes, that all the other non-EU exporters sending goods to the EU are required to do, isn't vindictiveness, it's the exact and obvious difference between being an EU member and not being an EU member.

It's not clear what the UK government expected would happen, but when you cancel your membership of a club, being excluded from that club's facilities and privileges isn't vindictiveness on the part of the club, it's exactly what you demanded them to do.

 

[bilby]

I don't care enough to research, so I'll ask.

How did GB resolve the issue about the border with Ireland?
Tom

They're pretending they never read the Northern Ireland Protocol before they signed it.

Who is "they"?
EU Ireland or Brexit Ireland?
Tom

The current UK government. They negotiated a deal and now want to pretend they didn't understand what it meant in real life.

Oh, that.

I'm a U.S. citizen. My country trounced those people over 200 years ago.
And my ancestors are predominantly Irish papists who were forced out of Ireland by the British in the late 19th century.

I kinda enjoy watching the Brits screw themselves, instead of everyone else. It's a hoot!
Tom

Hmmm... I always thought the big Irish migration to the US had something to do with the potato famine.

Iteland was a net exporter of food (almost entirely to the UK) throughout that famine. It was (like many famines in history and all of them in the last century) a political act of cruelty made possible by circumstances, rather than a simple consequence of circumstances outside human control. Without potatoes, Ireland still produced enough food for everyone on the island; But letting them eat it would have meant a severe lack of profits for the British absentee landlords, who were much happier to see mass starvation than to take a pay cut.

 

[bilby]

Back to the Germans sitting around the table. One guy asks "What if we had something like that? I mean, suppose Europeans stopped trying to kill each once every 30 or 40 years and we just worked and made stuff to sell to each other?"

The other Germans looked at him in amazement. It was a crazy idea, but it just might work.

...and that German was called Winston Churchill.

True story.

Give some credit to Harry Truman and his Marshall Plan. (BTW, Truman's gt-gt-grandfather Hans Michael Gutknecht was born in Prussia.)

One of the more depressing things about Brexit is I have yet to meet anyone in favor of Brexit who has any grasp of economics. The idea that Britain could maintain their economy after leaving the European Union and the Common Market is silly to the point of lunacy.

Didn't I learn at this very board that Boris Johnson based his stance on Brexit solely on what would garner him more votes? And that the Government went along with the referendum only because they thought that even the hoi polloi wouldn't be stupid enough to vote Leave?

Yup. There was no particular public demand for any kind of change, but ever since the 1970s, a small but vocal part of the Conservative Party had been a thorn in the side of Conservative Prime Ministers, calling for ties with the EU to be weakened. This was an entirely internal debate in the Tory party; Nobody much cared about it outside the party room.

Then David Cameron came up with a brilliant plan - he could silence the 1922 committee and other 'euroskeptics' in his party once and for all, by proving beyond doubt that the voters were in favour of the EU.

So he held a hastily worded and completely non-binding vote, which he knew he would win easily.

He lost by a tiny margin; And the small number of wealthy euroskeptics who had significant ownership of the media were able to spin this result as an unequivocal and unchallengable will of the people. Never once admitting that while "remain" is a single clear option that has a detailed and specific result in every area of politics and trade, "leave" is as many different options as there are voters.

Imagine a US Presidential race, in which the ballot paper asks "Should we keep Joe Biden as president, or have someone else?". Clearly, the answer depends on who that "someone else" actually is - it's not a fair choice between two possibilities. Now imagine Joe gets 48.5% of the vote. Donald Trump claims victory. After all, he's 'someone else', therefore that 51.5% obviously voted for him, right? Is that a democratic result? Of course not, but it can certainly be spun as one to the idiots.

The entire Brexit debacle is a consequence of internal party issues in one political party, that got way out of hand.

 

[Metaphor]

Back to the Germans sitting around the table. One guy asks "What if we had something like that? I mean, suppose Europeans stopped trying to kill each once every 30 or 40 years and we just worked and made stuff to sell to each other?"

The other Germans looked at him in amazement. It was a crazy idea, but it just might work.

...and that German was called Winston Churchill.

True story.

Give some credit to Harry Truman and his Marshall Plan. (BTW, Truman's gt-gt-grandfather Hans Michael Gutknecht was born in Prussia.)

One of the more depressing things about Brexit is I have yet to meet anyone in favor of Brexit who has any grasp of economics. The idea that Britain could maintain their economy after leaving the European Union and the Common Market is silly to the point of lunacy.

Didn't I learn at this very board that Boris Johnson based his stance on Brexit solely on what would garner him more votes? And that the Government went along with the referendum only because they thought that even the hoi polloi wouldn't be stupid enough to vote Leave?

Yup. There was no particular public demand for any kind of change, but ever since the 1970s, a small but vocal part of the Conservative Party had been a thorn in the side of Conservative Prime Ministers, calling for ties with the EU to be weakened. This was an entirely internal debate in the Tory party; Nobody much cared about it outside the party room.

Then David Cameron came up with a brilliant plan - he could silence the 1922 committee and other 'euroskeptics' in his party once and for all, by proving beyond doubt that the voters were in favour of the EU.

So he held a hastily worded and completely non-binding vote, which he knew he would win easily.

He lost by a tiny margin; And the small number of wealthy euroskeptics who had significant ownership of the media were able to spin this result as an unequivocal and unchallengable will of the people. Never once admitting that while "remain" is a single clear option that has a detailed and specific result in every area of politics and trade, "leave" is as many different options as there are voters.

Imagine a US Presidential race, in which the ballot paper asks "Should we keep Joe Biden as president, or have someone else?". Clearly, the answer depends on who that "someone else" actually is - it's not a fair choice between two possibilities. Now imagine Joe gets 48.5% of the vote. Donald Trump claims victory. After all, he's 'someone else', therefore that 51.5% obviously voted for him, right? Is that a democratic result? Of course not, but it can certainly be spun as one to the idiots.

The entire Brexit debacle is a consequence of internal party issues in one political party, that got way out of hand.

So, what would have been a legitimate way for Britain to leave the EU?

 

[bilby]

Somebody can correct me

OK - You are pretty much wrong about every important aspect of this topic on which you are clearly too poorly informed to have a useful opinion.

As such, you are an excellent example of why it was a monumentally bad idea to ask an important political question of a populace whose "information" derives from the news media.

You have been comprehensively lied to, and lack the engagement or curiosity to look beyond the lies.

 

[steve_bank]

The Brits, meaning England, hags onto itthe image of empire and royalty. Can't let those pesky Scots get away.