Brexit has happened

[Rhea]

Here’s a link to the split.

https://talkfreethought.org/showthread.php?24592-Now-US-Afgan-and-post-Trump-Was-Brexit-derail

Also, iIf you want the attention of mods, pls report the post using the “!” triangle beneath any post. ASking for help in-thread may not be seen quickly.

 

[Patooka]

Again, let me say.
I don't know much about GB or the political landscape. I'm just asking.

Is it possible for Labour to campaign on a promise to hold another referendum?

I suspect it's highly unlikely. The EU will probably say, "Stop fucking us about. It's been five years - hard Brexit it is".

The EU has no incentive to accommodate the UK's stupidity and pretty much every reason to make this as difficult as possible.

 

[bilby]

Again, let me say.
I don't know much about GB or the political landscape. I'm just asking.

Is it possible for Labour to campaign on a promise to hold another referendum?

I suspect it's highly unlikely. The EU will probably say, "Stop fucking us about. It's been five years - hard Brexit it is".

The EU has no incentive to accommodate the UK's stupidity and pretty much every reason to make this as difficult as possible.

Both major parties went to the last election with 'Leave' as part of their platform; Labour is highly unlikely to switch to a 'Rejoin' position unless that becomes massively and undeniably popular with the voters (at which point both major parties would likely adopt it as policy).

Brexit is a good example of the major problem of two-party politics, which depends for its utility on the parties taking opposing positions on major issues. The Liberal Democrats were the biggest 'Remain' party, but had little clout under the First Past the Post electoral system in the UK.

Regardless of what the parties and the voters might want, the fact remains that (despite not yet being fully implemented), Brexit is now irreversible by the unilateral action of any future UK government - to rejoin now would require agreement and unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states, any of whom could veto any application for membership from the UK.

And even if all 27 EU members were to agree to allow the UK to rejoin, the application would require compliance with the rules for new members, which are considerably more restrictive than the terms of the UK's membership before Brexit. The special status of the UK within the EU, which previously allowed them considerable freedom to opt out of EU laws and regulations, is gone forever, and can never be recovered. Rejoining would, for one very significant example, require the adoption of the euro and the end of the Pound (and of the fiscal control and economic independence of which the UK was previously very protective).

That's the real killer. The thing that makes Brexit such a hideous error. The very things that the 'Leave' campaign lied about - the idea that the UK needed to leave the EU in order to have full control of her destiny, and to avoid loss of sovereignty, are things that the UK already had as an EU member, but almost certainly cannot have as a new applicant should she rejoin the EU at some future date.

These morons voted for something that damaged the country, in return for things they already had - and that they are now for the first time in history at genuine and real risk of having to give up at some future time. Brexit not only didn't gain any freedom or sovereignty for the UK; It actually puts their freedom and sovereignty (that they always had) under threat, should any attempt be made to reverse the massive economic damage done.

They've broken it; And no amount of apology or contrition will ever put it back as good as it was. Even in the unlikely event that the fuckwits who broke it could be persuaded to understand that they owe the rest of their country an apology, it can never be restored to what it was before.

 

[Tigers!]

Again, let me say.
I don't know much about GB or the political landscape. I'm just asking.

Is it possible for Labour to campaign on a promise to hold another referendum?

I suspect it's highly unlikely. The EU will probably say, "Stop fucking us about. It's been five years - hard Brexit it is".

The EU has no incentive to accommodate the UK's stupidity and pretty much every reason to make this as difficult as possible.

Both major parties went to the last election with 'Leave' as part of their platform; Labour is highly unlikely to switch to a 'Rejoin' position unless that becomes massively and undeniably popular with the voters (at which point both major parties would likely adopt it as policy).

Brexit is a good example of the major problem of two-party politics, which depends for its utility on the parties taking opposing positions on major issues. The Liberal Democrats were the biggest 'Remain' party, but had little clout under the First Past the Post electoral system in the UK.

Regardless of what the parties and the voters might want, the fact remains that (despite not yet being fully implemented), Brexit is now irreversible by the unilateral action of any future UK government - to rejoin now would require agreement and unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states, any of whom could veto any application for membership from the UK.

And even if all 27 EU members were to agree to allow the UK to rejoin, the application would require compliance with the rules for new members, which are considerably more restrictive than the terms of the UK's membership before Brexit. The special status of the UK within the EU, which previously allowed them considerable freedom to opt out of EU laws and regulations, is gone forever, and can never be recovered. Rejoining would, for one very significant example, require the adoption of the euro and the end of the Pound (and of the fiscal control and economic independence of which the UK was previously very protective).

That's the real killer. The thing that makes Brexit such a hideous error. The very things that the 'Leave' campaign lied about - the idea that the UK needed to leave the EU in order to have full control of her destiny, and to avoid loss of sovereignty, are things that the UK already had as an EU member, but almost certainly cannot have as a new applicant should she rejoin the EU at some future date.

These morons voted for something that damaged the country, in return for things they already had - and that they are now for the first time in history at genuine and real risk of having to give up at some future time. Brexit not only didn't gain any freedom or sovereignty for the UK; It actually puts their freedom and sovereignty (that they always had) under threat, should any attempt be made to reverse the massive economic damage done.

They've broken it; And no amount of apology or contrition will ever put it back as good as it was. Even in the unlikely event that the fuckwits who broke it could be persuaded to understand that they owe the rest of their country an apology, it can never be restored to what it was before.

What i still cannot comprehend is why ~1/3 of the voting population did not bother voting in 2016?
Best ad for compulsory voting ever devised.

 

[bilby]

Both major parties went to the last election with 'Leave' as part of their platform; Labour is highly unlikely to switch to a 'Rejoin' position unless that becomes massively and undeniably popular with the voters (at which point both major parties would likely adopt it as policy).

Brexit is a good example of the major problem of two-party politics, which depends for its utility on the parties taking opposing positions on major issues. The Liberal Democrats were the biggest 'Remain' party, but had little clout under the First Past the Post electoral system in the UK.

Regardless of what the parties and the voters might want, the fact remains that (despite not yet being fully implemented), Brexit is now irreversible by the unilateral action of any future UK government - to rejoin now would require agreement and unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states, any of whom could veto any application for membership from the UK.

And even if all 27 EU members were to agree to allow the UK to rejoin, the application would require compliance with the rules for new members, which are considerably more restrictive than the terms of the UK's membership before Brexit. The special status of the UK within the EU, which previously allowed them considerable freedom to opt out of EU laws and regulations, is gone forever, and can never be recovered. Rejoining would, for one very significant example, require the adoption of the euro and the end of the Pound (and of the fiscal control and economic independence of which the UK was previously very protective).

That's the real killer. The thing that makes Brexit such a hideous error. The very things that the 'Leave' campaign lied about - the idea that the UK needed to leave the EU in order to have full control of her destiny, and to avoid loss of sovereignty, are things that the UK already had as an EU member, but almost certainly cannot have as a new applicant should she rejoin the EU at some future date.

These morons voted for something that damaged the country, in return for things they already had - and that they are now for the first time in history at genuine and real risk of having to give up at some future time. Brexit not only didn't gain any freedom or sovereignty for the UK; It actually puts their freedom and sovereignty (that they always had) under threat, should any attempt be made to reverse the massive economic damage done.

They've broken it; And no amount of apology or contrition will ever put it back as good as it was. Even in the unlikely event that the fuckwits who broke it could be persuaded to understand that they owe the rest of their country an apology, it can never be restored to what it was before.

What i still cannot comprehend is why ~1/3 of the voting population did not bother voting in 2016?
Best ad for compulsory voting ever devised.

I agree. They didn't care, because it was obvious that 'Remain' would win regardless.

If it hadn't rained in London (or had rained more elsewhere) on the day of the vote, they'd have been right, too.

 

[TomC]

What i still cannot comprehend is why ~1/3 of the voting population did not bother voting in 2016?

I suspect that something similar to what got Clinton and the Democrats. Over confidence.

Polls showed both Clinton and Remain way in the lead. People who wanted those outcomes found it easy to just stay home, while the opposition were motivated to vote.

Tom

 

[marc]

Fast food is starting to feel the pinch.. McDonalds is no longer serving milkshakes in the UK.

Other chains are feeling it too, like Nando's has closed 50 locations because they ran out of chicken. KFC says they might not have everything on their menu available.

 

[TomC]

Fast food is starting to feel the pinch.. McDonalds is no longer serving milkshakes in the UK.

Other chains are feeling it too, like Nando's has closed 50 locations because they ran out of chicken. KFC says they might not have everything on their menu available.

OMG! The horror!

Corporatists selling crappy food are being inconvenienced by Brexit and C19?

One would think God isn't on His heavenly Throne.
Tom

 

[bilby]

Fast food is starting to feel the pinch.. McDonalds is no longer serving milkshakes in the UK.

Other chains are feeling it too, like Nando's has closed 50 locations because they ran out of chicken. KFC says they might not have everything on their menu available.

OMG! The horror!

Corporatists selling crappy food are being inconvenienced by Brexit and C19?

One would think God isn't on His heavenly Throne.
Tom

Corporatists selling crappy food are the canary in the coalmine. Their business model is built on very low cost, high reliability transportation of perishable materials; And their businesses are luxuries - people can easily live without them, as your dismissive tone clearly recognises.

When logistics networks break down, these are the places where we should expect the problems to first become apparent. Higher margin businesses can afford to poach drivers with higher wages, or to carry larger inventories of non-perishables so that fewer, larger, deliveries lead to similar customer service levels. Both of these strategies imply higher costs, which high margin businesses can simply absorb, and which essential businesses can pass on to consumers. But low margin, low priority fast food businesses rely on the high volume, low cost model - increasing prices kill their volume, and increasing costs eliminate their profitability even at higher volumes.

Cheap fast food is a feature of modern high efficiency, low cost, economies. What we are seeing in the UK is the economy regressing to a level of efficiency too low to support such businesses - and this is just the beginning, with more inefficiency already lined up to hit the UK economy in three more waves, the first of which is due on October 1st.

Fast food and certain specific supermarket items (particularly perishables and high volume, low value items) are already showing the strain. And as things get worse, we can expect to see the directly visible problems expand into ever more areas of the economy. They are already having an impact there, but so far not one sufficient to produce visible shortages (though visible price increases are a thing, particularly in construction materials and supplies).

 

[bilby]

For anyone who thinks that Brexit 'has happened', and that the current problems are as bad as it's going to get, please note that on October 1st, the UK plans to (finally) introduce full border controls for imported animal products; And on January 1st, on all other imported goods, except 'phytosanitary' imports (essentially live animals and low risk plant products), which remain uncontrolled until March 1st, 2022. That's assuming that all of this isn't postponed again; However the legal and trade consequences of further delays could be even more damaging as the EU can refuse incoming UK goods if the UK doesn't apply these restrictions which are required by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

So, at the earliest, Brexit will have happened on March 1st, 2022. Because the UK government keep pushing back the date on which they "Take Back Control" of their borders from the EU.

Presumably these repeated postponements are to prevent excessive winning and jubilation, and to avoid embarrassing the rest of the world by showing what a huge success Brexit has been. Because nobody could possibly imagine that imposing controls on imports, in a nation that is completely dependent on them for survival, would be a disaster.

So far, the supply issues for British shops have been caused only by the changes to immigration and movement of workers, and changes to export regulations - Import regulations for goods traveling to the UK from the EU have yet to be affected.

Here is the official Dutch government advice (in English) for exporters who ship goods to the UK from the Netherlands: https://www.getreadyforbrexit.eu/en/at-the-uk-border-2/

Note that as of August 2021, the advice regarding the Mandatory Security Declarations (to be introduced on January 1st, 2022) is:

The exact requirements for these security declarations will be announced by the UK at a later date.

So that's reassuring.

...and with less than three weeks to go before the October 1st deadline (already thrice postponed), the government is starting to make noises about a possible further postponement, with customs and inspection facilities incomplete or unavailable, and shortages already evident on supermarket shelves.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-border-checks-eu-shortages-b1917250.html

 

[blastula]

It has happened, it is now a thing. The clock struck, and Britain became the last part of the British Empire to finally declare its independence.

Aged well, this did.

 

[TomC]

For anyone who thinks that Brexit 'has happened', and that the current problems are as bad as it's going to get, please note that on October 1st, the UK plans to (finally) introduce full border controls for imported animal products; And on January 1st, on all other imported goods, except 'phytosanitary' imports (essentially live animals and low risk plant products), which remain uncontrolled until March 1st, 2022. That's assuming that all of this isn't postponed again; However the legal and trade consequences of further delays could be even more damaging as the EU can refuse incoming UK goods if the UK doesn't apply these restrictions which are required by the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

So, at the earliest, Brexit will have happened on March 1st, 2022. Because the UK government keep pushing back the date on which they "Take Back Control" of their borders from the EU.

Presumably these repeated postponements are to prevent excessive winning and jubilation, and to avoid embarrassing the rest of the world by showing what a huge success Brexit has been. Because nobody could possibly imagine that imposing controls on imports, in a nation that is completely dependent on them for survival, would be a disaster.

So far, the supply issues for British shops have been caused only by the changes to immigration and movement of workers, and changes to export regulations - Import regulations for goods traveling to the UK from the EU have yet to be affected.

Here is the official Dutch government advice (in English) for exporters who ship goods to the UK from the Netherlands: https://www.getreadyforbrexit.eu/en/at-the-uk-border-2/

Note that as of August 2021, the advice regarding the Mandatory Security Declarations (to be introduced on January 1st, 2022) is:

The exact requirements for these security declarations will be announced by the UK at a later date.

So that's reassuring.

...and with less than three weeks to go before the October 1st deadline (already thrice postponed), the government is starting to make noises about a possible further postponement, with customs and inspection facilities incomplete or unavailable, and shortages already evident on supermarket shelves.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-border-checks-eu-shortages-b1917250.html

Can someone give me a reasonable estimate of how long the British government can keep putting off Brexit?
I don't understand how they've gotten away with it this long.

Didn't the people vote, clearly, 6 years ago, for Brexit? Why do their elected representatives keep putting off the Will of The People"?

Tom

 

[bilby]

...and with less than three weeks to go before the October 1st deadline (already thrice postponed), the government is starting to make noises about a possible further postponement, with customs and inspection facilities incomplete or unavailable, and shortages already evident on supermarket shelves.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-border-checks-eu-shortages-b1917250.html

Can someone give me a reasonable estimate of how long the British government can keep putting off Brexit?
I don't understand how they've gotten away with it this long.

Didn't the people vote, clearly, 6 years ago, for Brexit? Why do their elected representatives keep putting off the Will of The People"?

Tom

There are two fundamental problems. One is that it's inevitably going to be a massive disaster (which even the current 'Brexit lite' version has already been), and they dare not make it even worse.

The other is that it was never the will of the people; The people voted very narrowly for a basket of mutually exclusive possibilities, none of which had significant popular support, and few of which looked anything like what they're actually getting.

Most 'Leave' voters didn't want any changes to trade, or to travel for British Citizens; They wanted fewer immigrants to enter the UK (mostly from outside the EU) but without any reduction in the number of people who were prepared to do shit, low wage jobs, like fruit picking and abattoir work. That this desire was both physically impossible, and unrelated to the UK's membership of the EU, was not considered when casting their ballots.

 

[TomC]

...and with less than three weeks to go before the October 1st deadline (already thrice postponed), the government is starting to make noises about a possible further postponement, with customs and inspection facilities incomplete or unavailable, and shortages already evident on supermarket shelves.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-border-checks-eu-shortages-b1917250.html

Can someone give me a reasonable estimate of how long the British government can keep putting off Brexit?
I don't understand how they've gotten away with it this long.

Didn't the people vote, clearly, 6 years ago, for Brexit? Why do their elected representatives keep putting off the Will of The People"?

Tom

There are two fundamental problems. One is that it's inevitably going to be a massive disaster (which even the current 'Brexit lite' version has already been), and they dare not make it even worse.

The other is that it was never the will of the people; The people voted very narrowly for a basket of mutually exclusive possibilities, none of which had significant popular support, and few of which looked anything like what they're actually getting.

Most 'Leave' voters didn't want any changes to trade, or to travel for British Citizens; They wanted fewer immigrants to enter the UK (mostly from outside the EU) but without any reduction in the number of people who were prepared to do shit, low wage jobs, like fruit picking and abattoir work. That this desire was both physically impossible, and unrelated to the UK's membership of the EU, was not considered when casting their ballots.

Part of what I'm confused about is "Why doesn't the EU start enforcement of Brexit"?

There's lots of economic opportunity there. Like "GB can import fish products, like they used to. Exporting fish products will require certain, more stringent, licensing."

Or,
"The Pound is now worth .8 €". Suck it."

Why is the EU being so nice to GB, given everything? It seems they are, to an Irish Yankee colonist who doesn't much care how badly the Brits shot themselves in the economy.
Tom

 

[bilby]

There are two fundamental problems. One is that it's inevitably going to be a massive disaster (which even the current 'Brexit lite' version has already been), and they dare not make it even worse.

The other is that it was never the will of the people; The people voted very narrowly for a basket of mutually exclusive possibilities, none of which had significant popular support, and few of which looked anything like what they're actually getting.

Most 'Leave' voters didn't want any changes to trade, or to travel for British Citizens; They wanted fewer immigrants to enter the UK (mostly from outside the EU) but without any reduction in the number of people who were prepared to do shit, low wage jobs, like fruit picking and abattoir work. That this desire was both physically impossible, and unrelated to the UK's membership of the EU, was not considered when casting their ballots.

Part of what I'm confused about is "Why doesn't the EU start enforcement of Brexit"?

There's lots of economic opportunity there. Like "GB can import fish products, like they used to. Exporting fish products will require certain, more stringent, licensing."

That's pretty much what is happening right now. The problem for the EU is that British exports to Ireland are uncontrolled, creating a back door into Europe for UK trade. This is unlawful under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement, but as long as the UK avoids putting any controls on imports from the EU, they can pretend that the lack of controls on imports from Great Britain to Northern Ireland are part of a wider, temporary, teething troubles, and not the deliberate flouting of international law.

Or,
"The Pound is now worth .8 €". Suck it."

The value of the pound is set by international currency markets. The EU has no direct influence on the value of the pound, and little indirect influence.

Why is the EU being so nice to GB, given everything? It seems they are, to an Irish Yankee colonist who doesn't much care how badly the Brits shot themselves in the economy.
Tom

I don't see the EU being 'nice'. They're just sticking to the agreements they've made, without regard for being 'nice' or 'nasty' (though the British press are adamant that they're being evil and mean, and that all of the UK's woes are the result of EU malice).

The only lever they could pull would be to impose sanctions over the failure of the UK to comply with her obligations under the Northern Ireland protocol of the Withdrawal Agreement; But while the UK continues to at least claim to be working towards compliance, and to be ever so sorry about the unfortunate and unavoidable delays, there's not much to be gained by doing that.

 

[bilby]

And they're currently planning to leave in 2022.

Maybe.

It seems that the UK government plan is to finalise Brexit in about six months time. And that's what their plan will continue to be for the indefinite future.

 

[bilby]

The imposition of full import controls is currently slated for July 1st this year, but the government are discussing a fourth postponement. It's almost as though they realise it will be a further hardship on top of the existing awful disaster.

Vast harm has been done to vast numbers of people by Brexit. More is on the way. There are no offsetting benefits, unless you consider resurgent nationalism and self-centred racism to be somehow beneficial (the UK government and tabloid press appear to, though they prefer 'patriotism' and 'freedom', which seem to carry much the same basic meaning).

 

[TomC]

Vast harm has been done to vast numbers of people by Brexit. More is on the way. There are no offsetting benefits, unless you consider resurgent nationalism and self-centred racism to be somehow beneficial (the UK government and tabloid press appear to, though they prefer 'patriotism' and 'freedom', which seem to carry much the same basic meaning).

I saw a fun political cartoon.

It showed a typical British pub with a sign over the door.
The sign said " The British Goose". Underneath was a goose with a gun shooting it's foot off.
Tom

 

[Gospel]

Man look, I'm at work right now but really wanna dive into this. First off I think most people against Brexit are using all the obvious upfront costs of Brexit as proof of its failure. NO shit Trade is going to suck. No shit costs will go up as they'll need to make some costly adjustments to their borders in order to trade (stuff that other unnamed nations demand btw). No shit the filthy rich who can't enjoy the usual benefits are going to bitch and moan on Pay to Play media networks. Sure there is going to be all sorts of other stuff running foul as anything connected to the EU clearly should after the breakup. Of Course, the EU is going to do everything it can to make an example out of them which will draw out their glorious rebound longer than it should. No shit there is going to be political turmoil amongst themselves because the UK was split down the middle over Brexit. So yeah, all this bad stuff is a given. What is not a given is the UK just sitting down and indefinitely taking tomatoes to the face. Now that's a real pipe dream.

Once the radiation from all the fallout clears the UK will do just fine. It's not like they don't have a list of talents the world abroad doesn't already benefit from.

I also think it was a good shakeup for the powers that be. Folks act like the EU is this angelic force of God that does all things good on earth (Ptooey)

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The imposition of full import controls is currently slated for July 1st this year, but the government are discussing a fourth postponement. It's almost as though they realise it will be a further hardship on top of the existing awful disaster.

Vast harm has been done to vast numbers of people by Brexit. More is on the way. There are no offsetting benefits, unless you consider resurgent nationalism and self-centred racism to be somehow beneficial (the UK government and tabloid press appear to, though they prefer 'patriotism' and 'freedom', which seem to carry much the same basic meaning).

Must... hold... out... until... labor... party... gets... majority.

Man look, I'm at work right now but really wanna dive into this. First off I think most people against Brexit are using all the obvious upfront costs of Brexit as proof of its failure. NO shit Trade is going to suck. No shit costs will go up as they'll need to make some costly adjustments to their borders in order to trade (stuff that other unnamed nations demand btw). No shit the filthy rich who can't enjoy the usual benefits are going to bitch and moan on Pay to Play media networks. Sure there is going to be all sorts of other stuff running foul as anything connected to the EU clearly should after the breakup. Of Course, the EU is going to do everything it can to make an example out of them which will draw out their glorious rebound longer than it should. No shit there is going to be political turmoil amongst themselves because the UK was split down the middle over Brexit. So yeah, all this bad stuff is a given. What is not a given is the UK just sitting down and indefinitely taking tomatoes to the face. Now that's a real pipe dream.

Once the radiation from all the fallout clears the UK will do just fine. It's not like they don't have a list of talents the world abroad doesn't already benefit from.

I also think it was a good shakeup for the powers that be. Folks act like the EU is this angelic force of God that does all things good on earth (Ptooey)

EU is like democracy, a pain in the ass. But we are much better off with it, than the alternative. Putin loves Brexit. It weakens Europe. Boris Johnson and company sold so many lies about the money they'd save, how the UK would have the upper hand in negotiations. None of it was true. They began hedging those statements the second they won the Brexit vote. Britain isn't dying over this, but they will be weaker for it.