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The Race For 2024

RFK Jr. campaign fires staffer who said defeating Biden was her 'No. 1 priority'
In a Wednesday night post to X, Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, RFK Jr.’s campaign manager and daughter-in-law, said the campaign had fired New York-based staffer Rita Palma’s contract “for misrepresentation immediately upon seeing the longer video in which she gave an inaccurate job title and described a conversation that did not happen.”

Palma confirmed her termination from the campaign in a text message to NBC News, saying her time with RFK Jr.'s campaign "has been one of the best political adventures of my life filled with some of the finest people I’ve encountered, and I have encountered many."

"I hold no ill will and look forward to the next seven months of watching Bobby shine," she said.
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A fired staffer is just the start of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s problems - "There’s one major aspect lacking from Kennedy’s presidential campaign — any rational reason as to why he should be president."

He has never held elected office, and his campaign has stumbled, like having a staffer who made defeating Joe Biden her “No. 1 priority.”
I’m not even talking about his devotion to tin foil-hatted conspiracy theories, including claims that vaccines cause autism, that Covid was “targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people,” that China is developing bioweapons “to attack people of certain racial types” or that 5G wireless technology is part of a government plot to “to harvest our data and control our behavior.”

It’s that in intellect and demeanor, he’s remarkably unqualified for the job he is seeking. It would be bad enough if Kennedy were running for the House or Senate, but there’s only so much harm he could do in Congress. But unfit presidents can do real and enduring damage.

What defines Kennedy’s views on practically every public policy issue is a childlike aversion to generally accepted truths. If the world zigs, then Kennedy must zag.
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A fired staffer is just the start of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s problems
  • Is excessively easy access to guns the cause of gun violence? No, antidepressants and video games.
  • Are the COVID-19 vaccines safe? No, "it’s the deadliest vaccine ever made."
  • Gender dysphoria? Chemicals in drinking water.
  • Wi-fi? It causes cancer.
  • AIDS? Not caused by HIV.
  • The 2021 Jan 6 failed coup? He says that it's a “polarizing topic”, one that he wants “to hear every side” of.

RFK Jr. says he would order investigation of 'harsh treatment' of Jan. 6 defendants
“I have not examined the evidence in detail, but reasonable people, including Trump opponents, tell me there is little evidence of a true insurrection. They observe that the protestors carried no weapons, had no plans or ability to seize the reins of government, and that Trump himself had urged them to protest ‘peacefully.'"

He also stated such falsehoods as that the "protesters carried no weapons." He later attempted to backtrack.
Even that follow-up was muddled, though, as Kennedy argued that “there were people who were there who wanted to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power,” but that did not meet the criteria for insurrection.
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noting
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Somehow Makes His Stance on January 6 Even Worse | The New Republic

Some will argue that he is an iconoclastic thinker willing to challenge conventional wisdom. Certainly, there is nothing wrong with challenging authority and accepted truths. It can often be a laudable pursuit. But as is the case with another know-nothing presidential candidate, in Kennedy’s hands, it’s little more than oppositional hardheadedness with which the parents of young children are all too familiar.
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Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates - The New York Times - "The more candidates in the race, the better for Donald J. Trump, supporters say. And in a tight presidential contest, a small share of voters could change the result."

This reminds me of
Montana Republicans bankrolled Green Party ballot access | AP News
The Montana Republican Party bankrolled the signature-gathering effort to get the Montana Green Party certified for the 2020 election ballot, an official for a political committee said Tuesday.

Democrats — who last week asked the state commissioner of political practices to find out who paid for the signature gathering effort — immediately accused the GOP of election fraud and of propping up a leftist political party as a means to siphon votes from Democratic candidates this fall.
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Back to that NYT article.

They plan to promote the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as a “champion for choice” to give voters for whom abortion is a top issue — and who also don’t like Mr. Biden — another option on the ballot, according to one person who is involved in the effort and who, like several others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the plans.

Trump allies also plan to amplify the progressive environmental records of Mr. Kennedy and the expected Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, in key states — contrasting their policies against the record-high oil production under Mr. Biden that has disappointed some climate activists.

A third parallel effort in Michigan is meant to diminish Democratic turnout in November by amplifying Muslim voters’ concerns about Mr. Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Trump allies are discussing running ads in Dearborn, Mich., and other parts of the state with large Muslim populations that would thank Mr. Biden for standing with Israel, according to three people familiar with the effort, which is expected to be led by an outside group unaffiliated with the Trump campaign.
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Then noting "Republican donors are pouring funds into Mr. Kennedy’s independent bid for the presidency."
Mr. Trump has been worried about the Libertarian Party pulling conservative voters away from him in November. But Richard Grenell, who is the former acting director of national intelligence, has been using his connections with Libertarian activists and donors to try to persuade them to attack Mr. Biden more than Mr. Trump, according to people familiar with his efforts.

Other Trump supporters are trying to help third-party and independent candidates with the expensive and arduous process of gathering the signatures needed to get on state ballots. Scott Presler, the conservative activist whom Lara Trump said she wanted as an early hire at the Republican National Committee, publicly reached out on social media to Ms. Stein and Cornel West, a left-wing academic who is running for president as an independent, to offer his help in collecting signatures to get them on the ballot.
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The Democrats' response?
Democrats Prepare Aggressive Counter to Third-Party Threats - The New York Times - "An army of lawyers aims to challenge the steadily advancing ballot-access efforts of independent candidates, who Democrats fear could peel votes away in swing states."

Back to
Trump Allies Have a Plan to Hurt Biden’s Chances: Elevate Outsider Candidates - The New York Times

Noting
3/27/24 - Is Democracy In The U.S. Working? It's A Toss-Up, But Voters Don't See It Ending In Their Lifetimes, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 51% Support House Bill That Could Lead To TikTok Ban, 2024 Race: Biden vs. Trump Too-Close-To-Call | Quinnipiac University Poll
In a head-to-head presidential election matchup, 48 percent of voters support President Joe Biden and 45 percent support former President Donald Trump. This is virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac University's February 21 poll.

When the matchup is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, Trump receives 39 percent support, Biden receives 38 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 13 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 3 percent support.
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Back to the NYT.
“The path to victory here is clearly maximizing the reach of these left-wing alternatives,” said Stephen K. Bannon, the former White House chief strategist who also served as Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman in 2016.

“No Republican knows that oil production under Biden is higher than ever. But Jill Stein’s people do,” added Mr. Bannon. “Stein is furious about the oil drilling. The college kids are furious about it. The more exposure these guys get, the better it is for us.”
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He's confessing that he wants to split the Democratic vote.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
Politesse said:
The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state
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Right. No US law is involved here below the Constitution.
What matters anyhow is the forced outcome. The 1864 territorial law could/should have been taken off the books when Roe was decided, but it wasn't because, Arizona.
🤷
Maybe next month they’ll find one from early Puritan times that mandates the death penalty for even mentioning abortion. Then they can withdraw the 1864 law …
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Laws rendered moot because they're unconstitutional are frequently not taken off the books. IIRC about half of states had old abortion laws still on the books. Nothing unusual about Arizona here.
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Yup. Last time I checked it was illegal in Massachusetts to shave on Sunday. But nobody was threatening to arrest anyone for it. It’s stupid, whether or not it is enforced.
Republicans killed Dems’ efforts to strike the 1864 law. Dems wanted to repeal it, not because it was stupid, but because the malevolent forces in government were (are?) using it as a tool of power.
 
Elixir said:
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
Politesse said:
The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state
Click to expand...
Right. No US law is involved here below the Constitution.
What matters anyhow is the forced outcome. The 1864 territorial law could/should have been taken off the books when Roe was decided, but it wasn't because, Arizona.
🤷
Maybe next month they’ll find one from early Puritan times that mandates the death penalty for even mentioning abortion. Then they can withdraw the 1864 law …
Click to expand...
Laws rendered moot because they're unconstitutional are frequently not taken off the books. IIRC about half of states had old abortion laws still on the books. Nothing unusual about Arizona here.
Click to expand...

Yup. Last time I checked it was illegal in Massachusetts to shave on Sunday. But nobody was threatening to arrest anyone for it. It’s stupid, whether or not it is enforced.
Republicans killed Dems’ efforts to strike the 1864 law. Dems wanted to repeal it, not because it was stupid, but because the malevolent forces in government were (are?) using it as a tool of power.
Click to expand...
It is a bit different when it's intentional; plenty of states fully intended to recommence enforcement of anti-abortion laws should the decision ever be overturned.
 
Donald Trump Puts Outrageous Condition On Potential Debate With Joe Biden - April 5, 2024
Donald Trump on Thursday accused President Joe Biden of being “higher than a kite,” and insisted that any debate with him “should be drug-tested.” (Check out the clip below.)

In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump revived his baseless insinuation that Biden used cocaine, this time during his fiery State of the Union speech last month.
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:eek:
 
lpetrich said:
Donald Trump Puts Outrageous Condition On Potential Debate With Joe Biden - April 5, 2024
Donald Trump on Thursday accused President Joe Biden of being “higher than a kite,” and insisted that any debate with him “should be drug-tested.” (Check out the clip below.)

In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump revived his baseless insinuation that Biden used cocaine, this time during his fiery State of the Union speech last month.
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:eek:
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Every accusation so far has turned out to be a confession.

Just sayin'.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
Politesse said:
The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state
Click to expand...
Right. No US law is involved here below the Constitution.
What matters anyhow is the forced outcome. The 1864 territorial law could/should have been taken off the books when Roe was decided, but it wasn't because, Arizona.
🤷
Maybe next month they’ll find one from early Puritan times that mandates the death penalty for even mentioning abortion. Then they can withdraw the 1864 law …
Click to expand...
Laws rendered moot because they're unconstitutional are frequently not taken off the books. IIRC about half of states had old abortion laws still on the books. Nothing unusual about Arizona here.
Click to expand...
Frankly laws are never taken off the books. They are simply revoked by newer laws.
 
lpetrich said:
Donald Trump Puts Outrageous Condition On Potential Debate With Joe Biden - April 5, 2024
Donald Trump on Thursday accused President Joe Biden of being “higher than a kite,” and insisted that any debate with him “should be drug-tested.” (Check out the clip below.)

In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump revived his baseless insinuation that Biden used cocaine, this time during his fiery State of the Union speech last month.
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:eek:
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For shits and giggles I've been watching some clips of Don Jnr's show on youtube. TSwizzle would shit an aneurysm if he saw how Don Jnr acts whilst knowingly standing in front of a camera.
 
From the Truth-Is-Stranger-Than-Fiction desk:

RFK Jr's candidacy reminds me of the Connor Roy character in the excellent TV series Succession. Connor is an idle billionaire who's never held a job but decides to run for President on the Crackpot ticket. His call-girl/fiancee isn't happy about that -- publicity might focus attention on her past. Anyway, he never polls above 1%.

But Truth is stranger than fiction: RFK is polling at 8.4% and some punters apparently envision some scenario where the multi-millionaire (he's not even a billionaire, having to split the family fortune with a huge number of siblings and cousins) somehow wins the brass ring in November!

That seems unlikely, but scenarios where RFK's candidacy moves Trump first past the posts (as Nader did for GWB in 2000) seem unfortunately very likely.

The same Polymarket that shows the electoral chance as 46-44 Trump's favor, shows Biden (62% over 27%) to win the popular vote. (This is a rigging that arises NOT from any GOP cheating, but by demographic happenstance.) Be prepared to be VERY disappointed in the November result.
 
bilby said:
lpetrich said:
Donald Trump Puts Outrageous Condition On Potential Debate With Joe Biden - April 5, 2024
Donald Trump on Thursday accused President Joe Biden of being “higher than a kite,” and insisted that any debate with him “should be drug-tested.” (Check out the clip below.)

In an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, Trump revived his baseless insinuation that Biden used cocaine, this time during his fiery State of the Union speech last month.
Click to expand...
:eek:
Click to expand...
Every accusation so far has turned out to be a confession.

Just sayin'.
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I've been saying that one from the start. His speeches have "adderall essay" written all over them, and I should know.
 
Swammerdami said:
That seems unlikely, but scenarios where RFK's candidacy moves Trump first past the posts (as Nader did for GWB in 2000) seem unfortunately very likely.
The same Polymarket that shows the electoral chance as 46-44 Trump's favor, shows Biden (62% over 27%) to win the popular vote. (This is a rigging that arises NOT from any GOP cheating, but by demographic happenstance.) Be prepared to be VERY disappointed in the November result.
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RFK Jr. I think would take from both Biden and Trump. Cornel West and Jill Stein might not poll nearly as highly, but they are firmly on the far left, like Ralph Nader - or Jill Stein herself - were, and they will take from Biden only.
West's new running mate is a real peach though.

Cornel West’s running mate defends calling police ‘same’ as KKK
 
I suppose it is useless to point out, once again, that polls at this point are pretty meaningless. Despite breathless assurances to the contrary by the bit-chomping news media, the general election has not started. We know who the Democratic candidates will be, but we only have Donald Trump on the Republican side. He has not picked a VP yet, and that will make a difference in how people vote. If he picks someone who is just as wacky as he is, but without the Trump "charm", that could knock off a lot of points. The media will hang on every word, especially if Trump's running mate steps outside the brand and says something sane. It seems pretty likely that Trump will choose from among his sycophants, but he will have a hard time finding someone who he is compatible with. For some reason, the field may be narrowed down a bit among those who realize they will need to be fitted for the same choke collar that Mike Pence had to wear.
 
Copernicus said:
I suppose it is useless to point out, once again, that polls at this point are pretty meaningless.
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Polls aren't meaningless, if taken in context, both generalized and historical. No President since Reagan (?) has polled well mid-term. Out of those five, only two have lost, and one of them was a remarkable failure and one of the biggest asterisks in Presidential history. Biden's numbers don't look bad. They look like Obama's and W's.
Copernicus said:
Despite breathless assurances to the contrary by the bit-chomping news media, the general election has not started. We know who the Democratic candidates will be, but we only have Donald Trump on the Republican side. He has not picked a VP yet, and that will make a difference in how people vote. If he picks someone who is just as wacky as he is, but without the Trump "charm", that could knock off a lot of points. The media will hang on every word, especially if Trump's running mate steps outside the brand and says something sane. It seems pretty likely that Trump will choose from among his sycophants, but he will have a hard time finding someone who he is compatible with. For some reason, the field may be narrowed down a bit among those who realize they will need to be fitted for the same choke collar that Mike Pence had to wear.
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I'm uncertain who Trump could name to his ticket that would make a difference. Trump's draw is Trump and only Trump. Pence was just a name added to help sooth the conscience of evangelicals that weren't racists mofos. This time around, the right-wing seems nearly at ease with this abomination.

So that leaves us with where is the economy in The Fall, are there any big surprises (the Middle East isn't helping at the moment), if RFK Jr actually going to be a thing, and how is that economy thing again? The Electoral College is a bit friendlier to Trump in 2024, but with referendums in FL and a susceptible Senate seat, a ton of money is needed there, money that won't be easy to come by. As that money is required in the north, where Trump is going to need to break through again. With recent races trending as they are, Trump is going to have to spend a ton in the North. And with Trump in charge of the RNC, it is going to be hard to actually manage the money well.

As things stand, it looks positive for Biden. The polls that is and the winds that will influence the election outcome.
 
Copernicus said:
I suppose it is useless to point out, once again, that polls at this point are pretty meaningless. Despite breathless assurances to the contrary by the bit-chomping news media, the general election has not started. We know who the Democratic candidates will be, but we only have Donald Trump on the Republican side. He has not picked a VP yet, and that will make a difference in how people vote. If he picks someone who is just as wacky as he is, but without the Trump "charm", that could knock off a lot of points. The media will hang on every word, especially if Trump's running mate steps outside the brand and says something sane. It seems pretty likely that Trump will choose from among his sycophants, but he will have a hard time finding someone who he is compatible with. For some reason, the field may be narrowed down a bit among those who realize they will need to be fitted for the same choke collar that Mike Pence had to wear.
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I think Trump will probably pick himself to be his own VP. He knows more about being his own VP than anyone, including Mike Pence. Nobody knows more about being VP than Donald. It’s about time we have a VP who is on the same page as The President. The Trump-Trump ticket is a sure winner.
 
Elixir said:
Copernicus said:
I suppose it is useless to point out, once again, that polls at this point are pretty meaningless. Despite breathless assurances to the contrary by the bit-chomping news media, the general election has not started. We know who the Democratic candidates will be, but we only have Donald Trump on the Republican side. He has not picked a VP yet, and that will make a difference in how people vote. If he picks someone who is just as wacky as he is, but without the Trump "charm", that could knock off a lot of points. The media will hang on every word, especially if Trump's running mate steps outside the brand and says something sane. It seems pretty likely that Trump will choose from among his sycophants, but he will have a hard time finding someone who he is compatible with. For some reason, the field may be narrowed down a bit among those who realize they will need to be fitted for the same choke collar that Mike Pence had to wear.
Click to expand...
I think Trump will probably pick himself to be his own VP. He knows more about being his own VP than anyone, including Mike Pence. Nobody knows more about being VP than Donald. It’s about time we have a VP who is on the same page as The President. The Trump-Trump ticket is a sure winner.
Click to expand...
Seriously, though, Trump's VP pick is bound to be disturbing. Not only because that person has a very good chance of taking over if he finally succumbs to the hamberders and taco bowl diet, but that they are almost guaranteed to be a wildly unqualified sycophant. Trump went with the "Heritage Foundation would like you to pick this one" VP, and he will never do that again. He will pick the person who fawns over him sufficiently, or - and this is a real possibility - someone he thinks is "hot."

Something like the Alina Habba of Vice Presidents. If he wins and keels over, we could be stuck with...President Kayleigh McEnany? President Kari Lake?
 
Ford said:
Elixir said:
Copernicus said:
I suppose it is useless to point out, once again, that polls at this point are pretty meaningless. Despite breathless assurances to the contrary by the bit-chomping news media, the general election has not started. We know who the Democratic candidates will be, but we only have Donald Trump on the Republican side. He has not picked a VP yet, and that will make a difference in how people vote. If he picks someone who is just as wacky as he is, but without the Trump "charm", that could knock off a lot of points. The media will hang on every word, especially if Trump's running mate steps outside the brand and says something sane. It seems pretty likely that Trump will choose from among his sycophants, but he will have a hard time finding someone who he is compatible with. For some reason, the field may be narrowed down a bit among those who realize they will need to be fitted for the same choke collar that Mike Pence had to wear.
Click to expand...
I think Trump will probably pick himself to be his own VP. He knows more about being his own VP than anyone, including Mike Pence. Nobody knows more about being VP than Donald. It’s about time we have a VP who is on the same page as The President. The Trump-Trump ticket is a sure winner.
Click to expand...
Seriously, though, Trump's VP pick is bound to be disturbing. Not only because that person has a very good chance of taking over if he finally succumbs to the hamberders and taco bowl diet, but that they are almost guaranteed to be a wildly unqualified sycophant. Trump went with the "Heritage Foundation would like you to pick this one" VP, and he will never do that again. He will pick the person who fawns over him sufficiently, or - and this is a real possibility - someone he thinks is "hot."

Something like the Alina Habba of Vice Presidents. If he wins and keels over, we could be stuck with...President Kayleigh McEnany? President Kari Lake?
Click to expand...

Trump is not going to win. I look forward to Swizzle showing up here after election day.
 
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