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The Race For 2024

Ford said:
Elixir said:
I think Trump will probably pick himself to be his own VP. He knows more about being his own VP than anyone, including Mike Pence. Nobody knows more about being VP than Donald. It’s about time we have a VP who is on the same page as The President. The Trump-Trump ticket is a sure winner.
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Seriously, though...
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I AM serious. Nobody is as good as The Donald, and The Donald knows it!
Why wouldn't The Donald pick the person who is The Best, and The Best for The Donald?
If one title for The Donald is good, two titles has to be twice as good. And you want to talk about disturbing?
MAGA!
 
TomC said:
pood said:
Trump is not going to win. I look forward to Swizzle showing up here after election day.
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I remember people expressing that level of confidence 8 years ago today.
It's kinda etched into my psyche.
Tom
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+1
Swiz may well be gloating... for the moment. We have a lot of morons.
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Shadowy Man said:
pood said:
Trump is not going to win. I look forward to Swizzle showing up here after election day.
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that’s pretty optimistic to think this will be over after Election Day.
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Trump won by razor wire thin margins, but we knew late on Election Day that America dun scored an own goal. Biden's election took so long due to the massive mail-in vote in light of the pandemic. So all things being equal, it would seem likely we'd have a winner on election day. As long as Biden wins PA, MI, WI and the rest of the solid blue states and that one straggling vote in Nebraska, he wins. Wisconsin and Michigan are trending blue, not red.

As long as the far left doesn't score an own-goal in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. I think Iran did Biden a solid in their brazen attack of Israel to quell some of that threat.

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Too many contingencies to say in mid-April.
1 - A Trump conviction. Who knows?
2- More infantile Trump rants and attacks on opponents' families. But that never hurt him before. Everyone knows he's a lout.
3- A Joe Biden health scare or McTurtle moment at the mic. Devastating.
4- Inflation uptick, chaos in Mideast. Trump would jump at these as exploitable issues.
5- Campaign budget. Clear positive for Biden.

Tums are on sale where I shop. Time to stock up.
 
A 270-268 “win” by Democrats would be a disaster, and probably result in a Trump dictatorship.
Any margin of defeat for the insurrectionist party will result in tumult, but it is unlikely that an electoral defeat of 100+ would get overturned.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Copernicus said:
I suppose it is useless to point out, once again, that polls at this point are pretty meaningless.
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Polls aren't meaningless, if taken in context, both generalized and historical. No President since Reagan (?) has polled well mid-term. Out of those five, only two have lost, and one of them was a remarkable failure and one of the biggest asterisks in Presidential history. Biden's numbers don't look bad. They look like Obama's and W's.
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I think they are meaningless now as predictors of the likely voting pattern we will see in November. The country is fairly evenly split politically, but we still only have half of the Republican ticket. And it is likely that there will be significant events between now and the election to affect those voting patterns.


Jimmy Higgins said:
Copernicus said:
Despite breathless assurances to the contrary by the bit-chomping news media, the general election has not started. We know who the Democratic candidates will be, but we only have Donald Trump on the Republican side. He has not picked a VP yet, and that will make a difference in how people vote. If he picks someone who is just as wacky as he is, but without the Trump "charm", that could knock off a lot of points. The media will hang on every word, especially if Trump's running mate steps outside the brand and says something sane. It seems pretty likely that Trump will choose from among his sycophants, but he will have a hard time finding someone who he is compatible with. For some reason, the field may be narrowed down a bit among those who realize they will need to be fitted for the same choke collar that Mike Pence had to wear.
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I'm uncertain who Trump could name to his ticket that would make a difference. Trump's draw is Trump and only Trump. Pence was just a name added to help sooth the conscience of evangelicals that weren't racists mofos. This time around, the right-wing seems nearly at ease with this abomination.
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Whoever he picks, that person will be the subject of intense public scrutiny. There will likely be press interviews with that candidate and public statements that make headlines. People will want to know the VP's opinion of every statement that Trump makes. Given Trump's increasingly erratic behavior and famous inability to get along with those he chooses to work for him, we might even see them undercutting each other.


Jimmy Higgins said:
So that leaves us with where is the economy in The Fall, are there any big surprises (the Middle East isn't helping at the moment), if RFK Jr actually going to be a thing, and how is that economy thing again? The Electoral College is a bit friendlier to Trump in 2024, but with referendums in FL and a susceptible Senate seat, a ton of money is needed there, money that won't be easy to come by. As that money is required in the north, where Trump is going to need to break through again. With recent races trending as they are, Trump is going to have to spend a ton in the North. And with Trump in charge of the RNC, it is going to be hard to actually manage the money well.

As things stand, it looks positive for Biden. The polls that is and the winds that will influence the election outcome.
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I think that Biden's standing in the polls is shaky and volatile. He is running as the "not Trump" candidate, because he isn't a very good campaigner. He never has been. Harris has been a traditional VP--quiet and inconsequential in the background. Trump himself only needs money for his legal expenses, since he gets as much publicity as he wants for free from the press. He is tabloid newsworthy. It remains to be seen how the public will view his VP candidate.
 
Elixir said:
Loren Pechtel said:
Elixir said:
Politesse said:
The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state
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Right. No US law is involved here below the Constitution.
What matters anyhow is the forced outcome. The 1864 territorial law could/should have been taken off the books when Roe was decided, but it wasn't because, Arizona.
🤷
Maybe next month they’ll find one from early Puritan times that mandates the death penalty for even mentioning abortion. Then they can withdraw the 1864 law …
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Laws rendered moot because they're unconstitutional are frequently not taken off the books. IIRC about half of states had old abortion laws still on the books. Nothing unusual about Arizona here.
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Yup. Last time I checked it was illegal in Massachusetts to shave on Sunday. But nobody was threatening to arrest anyone for it. It’s stupid, whether or not it is enforced.
Republicans killed Dems’ efforts to strike the 1864 law. Dems wanted to repeal it, not because it was stupid, but because the malevolent forces in government were (are?) using it as a tool of power.
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So I'm guessing there are a lot of 'separate but equal' laws on the books across the south that will be legal again when SCOTUS reinstitutes segregation.
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
So I'm guessing there are a lot of 'separate but equal' laws on the books across the south that will be legal again when SCOTUS reinstitutes segregation.
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Right?
But it will be “reinstating freedom and asserting rights by getting rid of racist laws against segregation”.
 
Elixir said:
T.G.G. Moogly said:
So I'm guessing there are a lot of 'separate but equal' laws on the books across the south that will be legal again when SCOTUS reinstitutes segregation.
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Right?
But it will be “reinstating freedom and asserting rights by getting rid of racist laws against segregation”.
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Correct. We musn't infringe on states' rights.
 
If you saw the interview with Gov. Sununu, it is clear that they do not care about right or wrong. They just want to win, no matter what. Party ideology is more important than country or the law. If tRump is the path so be it.
 
This might be Trump’s most inflationary, economically destructive idea yet

Remind me again why Americans think Donald Trump would be so much better on inflation and the economy?

Trump’s policy team is reportedly scheming to devalue the U.S. dollar. This might well be Trump’s most inflationary and economically destructive idea yet. That’s quite an achievement, considering everything else he and his advisers have cooked up (universal tariff hikes, deficit-financed tax cuts, huge reductions in the labor force, etc.).

Trump’s objective, Politico reports, is to boost U.S. exports and reduce imports. Basically, if a dollar buys, say, fewer euros or Japanese yen than it currently does, that makes U.S.-made products look a little cheaper and potentially more attractive to European and Japanese customers (among others). So, hey, maybe this could help some U.S. companies trying to sell products abroad.

That is, until you consider everything else that might happen if we deliberately tried to weaken our currency, which would open a Pandora’s shipping container of disastrous consequences.
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