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The Race For 2024

Elixir said:
Can you cite the US law I misunderstand?
I am eager to learn…
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The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state, but in all cases to date, states have affirmed in their constitutions that territorial law stands unless specifically contravened by the new state's constitution or subsequent legislative acts. This right of the states to define their laws is guaranteed by the first and fourth article of the US Constitution as interpreted through the 10th amendment. Your imagined distinction between state and US law is just that. US law is both the source and guarantor of the legislative rights of the states.
 
Politesse said:
The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state
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Right. No US law is involved here below the Constitution.
What matters anyhow is the forced outcome. The 1864 territorial law could/should have been taken off the books when Roe was decided, but it wasn't because, Arizona.
🤷
Maybe next month they’ll find one from early Puritan times that mandates the death penalty for even mentioning abortion. Then they can withdraw the 1864 law …
 
To get back to the 2024 race for a minute, Cornel West has chosen his running mate.
Cornel West announces fellow academic Melina Abdullah as running mate

She is a professor of pan-African studies at California State University, #BLM activist, police defunder, and an all-around nutjob.
BLM co-founder calls Taylor Swift fans ‘slightly racist’
Calgary Herald said:
A California professor and Black Lives Matter organizer suggested it’s “slightly racist” to be a Taylor Swift fan.
[...]
When one user asked her what she meant with the Swift comment, she responded, “I said FEEL, not think. Kind of like that feeling I get when there are too many American flags.”
Another person commented that “literally everything is racist,” Abdullah replied, “Indeed!”
If that wasn’t enough, Abdullah wrote a follow-up post after Swift’s boyfriend, Travis Kelce, and the Kansas City Chiefs were crowned Super Bowl champions.
“Why do I feel like this was some right-wing, white-supremacist conspiracy?!?! Booooooo!!!! #SuperBowl.”
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So, a perfect choice for West.
 
Just two weeks ago, I wrote:
Swammerdami said:
Although recent news seems to favor Biden, Betfair still shows Trump more likely to win in November, 45% vs 40%.
Polymarket is even worse, 50% vs 42%.
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Checking Polymrket just now, I see Trump 46%, Biden 45%. Almost a coin toss. At Betfair, the race shows as even closer. Could it be that sentiment is finally beginning to turn against the Party that denies Choice and nominates a criminal?

RFK is shown with 4% chance to win in November at Polymarket; Harris and Obama with 1.6% each. I assume that the Michelle Obama possibility is based on the idea that Biden might become incapacitated and Barack Obama announces for a third term to save the country, but running for First Husband to bypass the 22nd Amendment. I love the Obamas and think they're best for the job, but fear that voters would resent such a ploy.
 
Michelle Obama has stated several times that she has absolutely no interest in running for or being the president.
 
ZiprHead said:
Michelle Obama has stated several times that she has absolutely no interest in running for or being the president.
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"It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job."
~Douglas Adams
 
Yeah, but she doesn't want the job. The racist misogyny would be unbearable... and that is on top of the job being a crap job to begin with.

Heck, Trump was renewing the Hussein Obama crap, and he isn't even running. Trump is using religious and racial bigotry to rile up his base... in an election against a white guy.
 
Politesse said:
I don't think any person of good conscience would desire to rule a fundamentally unjust empire.
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Oh, I would! Give me absolute power over North Korea and I’ll force democracy down their throats like Cortez drinking molten gold!
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Politesse said:
I don't think any person of good conscience would desire to rule a fundamentally unjust empire.
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There are no just empires, just empires that strive for decency. The US has a mixed record on that.
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I'm aware of the "mixed" part, or I wouldn't be a government employee myself. But the White House is no office for an honorable person, nore would they ever attain it.
 
Swammerdami said:
Checking Polymrket just now, I see Trump 46%, Biden 45%. Almost a coin toss. At Betfair, the race shows as even closer. Could it be that sentiment is finally beginning to turn against the Party that denies Choice and nominates a criminal?
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Indictments are probably not hurting him that bad, but the fallout of Dobbs is causing a lot of consternation.
That said, Polymarket numbers seem whack ...
RFK is shown with 4% chance to win in November at Polymarket;
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RFK's chance is too high by at least one order of magnitude. What are they smoking?
I know he sees a path via nobody getting to 270 and the House picking him as a compromise candidate. However, even for that unlikely scenario to happen he would have to win a state. I just don't see him doing that.
Harris and Obama with 1.6% each. I assume that the Michelle Obama possibility is based on the idea that Biden might become incapacitated and Barack Obama announces for a third term to save the country, but running for First Husband to bypass the 22nd Amendment. I love the Obamas and think they're best for the job, but fear that voters would resent such a ploy.
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Yeah. I do not see that happening either. KH could do it, should Biden have to quit. Same goes for somebody on the Republican side. All other Rs are <1% though.
 
Politesse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Politesse said:
I don't think any person of good conscience would desire to rule a fundamentally unjust empire.
Click to expand...
There are no just empires, just empires that strive for decency. The US has a mixed record on that.
Click to expand...
I'm aware of the "mixed" part, or I wouldn't be a government employee myself. But the White House is no office for an honorable person, nore would they ever attain it.
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I consider that an overly cynical view of running for public office. I think that a lot of the behavior of someone holding public office is always going to be constrained by the exigencies of the office and also their own human weaknesses and flaws. The best leaders are those who manage to find ways to leave their office better off than they found it, but we should not expect saints. Nor should we condemn leaders for every stupid or bad decision that they make. Some administrations are relatively free of scandals (like the present one) and some are not (like the previous one). I prefer leaders who manage to bring about the former, even if they are not perfect.
 
ZiprHead said:
Michelle Obama has stated several times that she has absolutely no interest in running for or being the president.
Click to expand...
History is replete with powerful people who spent the years prior to their ascent denying furiously that they had any interest in the role.

"I don't think there will be a woman Prime Minister in my lifetime." Margaret Thatcher, UK Prime Minister 1979-1990, speaking in 1973.
 
Elixir said:
Give me absolute power over North Korea and I’ll force democracy down their throats
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I am pretty confident that if you (or anyone else) had absolute power over North Korea, it would by definition remain non-democratic. The instant democracy begins to become a reality, your absolute power to ensure that democracy continues to flourish (by definition) comes to an end.

Imposing democracy by tyrannical means is a logical contradiction, and an absurdity*.









*As well as being the cornerstone of US foreign policy since WWII
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Yeah, but she doesn't want the job. The racist misogyny would be unbearable... and that is on top of the job being a crap job to begin with.

Heck, Trump was renewing the Hussein Obama crap, and he isn't even running. Trump is using religious and racial bigotry to rile up his base... in an election against a white guy.
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"he isn't even running"

Don't tell Trump that!!
 
Elixir said:
Politesse said:
The status of territorial law is defined by the newly formed state
Click to expand...
Right. No US law is involved here below the Constitution.
What matters anyhow is the forced outcome. The 1864 territorial law could/should have been taken off the books when Roe was decided, but it wasn't because, Arizona.
🤷
Maybe next month they’ll find one from early Puritan times that mandates the death penalty for even mentioning abortion. Then they can withdraw the 1864 law …
Click to expand...
Laws rendered moot because they're unconstitutional are frequently not taken off the books. IIRC about half of states had old abortion laws still on the books. Nothing unusual about Arizona here.
 
RFK Jr. staffer notes how he could block Biden by sending the race to the House
Rita Palma, a longtime New York-based critic of vaccination mandates, appears in a recently uploaded video to be giving a presentation aimed at persuading Republican voters to help Kennedy qualify for the state’s presidential ballot this fall. She identifies herself in the video as the campaign’s New York state director, though the campaign said Monday that she is a "ballot access consultant" and that her comments don't reflect overall campaign strategy.

In those comments, Palma says that she knocked on doors for Trump's campaigns in 2016 and 2020 and has "more Trump T-shirts than I do Bobby Kennedy T-shirts" but that Trump "lost" her because of "the vaccines."

Palma goes on to declare Biden the "mutual enemy" of the Trump and Kennedy voter and says her "No. 1 priority" is depriving Biden of his re-election, not helping Kennedy win.

"Whether you support Bobby or Trump, we all oppose Biden. And my thoughts are that, you know, that’s the No. 1 priority in the country," she says in the video.
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Win big enough in some state to give RFK Jr. that state's electoral votes, and denying Joe Biden a majority. That sends the election into the House, where its members vote as state delegations. Republicans control enough state delegations to be able to elect Donald Trump.

An RFK staffer then disavowed RP. Amaryllis Fox on X: "As an Independent movement, our supporters, volunteers, and field organizers come from all sides of the political spectrum and their reasons for supporting Bobby are as disparate as their backgrounds. …" / X
 
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