How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

bilby said:

Nuclear war would be a total disaster, even for survivors on the "winning" side.

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If they are about similarly armed, like India and Pakistan. Otherwise the results can be different.

aupmanyav said:

barbos said:

.. don't invite NATO scambags and you will have your country safe from russian "invasion".

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That is correct. There was no need for a tilt and no need for a war.

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Barbos has never justified his clams that Nuland ordered, demanded, or even suggested anything provocative regarding Ukraine with any evidence. I have asked him to show a shred of evidence many a time but His Nuland conspiracy theories exist purely outside the realm of physical reality. Ukraine kicked out a Putin puppet all by themselves. And they have the right to do that. And you think that justifies Russia murdering Ukraine's people and pillaging her resources. Why do you keep saying this?

A wife has a conversation with another man in the market and you defend the (ex-)husband for abusing her and breaking her arm? Because it is right to break the arm of a woman who dares to speak to someone other than her (ex-)husband? Because she should have expected this battery and abuse? She is condemned to remain perpetually subserviant to her abusive (ex-)husband if she wants her limbs to remain intact? And you want to shift all the blame to her and the guy she met in the market? WTF?

aupmanyav said:

bilby said:

Nuclear war would be a total disaster, even for survivors on the "winning" side.

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If they are about similarly armed, like India and Pakistan. Otherwise the results can be different.

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Different how?

If New Delhi were hit by a nuclear weapon, how different would your experience be if it were a Chinese, Russian, American or French weapon, compared with a Pakistani one?

Are you hoping to catch a glimpse of the flag painted on the warhead just before it detonates?

Dead is dead. Burned is burned. Radiation sickness is radiation sickness. A pile of rubble is not a home, no matter how it became rubble.

You won't feel any better about watching your family die, even if you believe that some Pakistanis are simultaneously experiencing the same horror.

bilby said:

Other nations do not have that strength, and must seek alliances.

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That is where Ukraine made a mistake. After removing Yukowych, they could have elected a moderate, and not someone like Poroshenko who started with the mantra "armiia, mova, vira (English: military, language, faith)" (Poroshenko). Then, they erred in electing Zelensky who embroiled them in this long war. The world is still divided into 'spheres of influence'.
May be Putin has heard Modi's call, but Ukraine also has to come around it. Otherwise the war will continue, and I do not know how will it finally end.

zorq said:

Barbos has never justified his clams that Nuland ordered, demanded,

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Sure, and Biden never promised to blow up Nord Stream.

aupmanyav said:

bilby said:

Other nations do not have that strength, and must seek alliances.

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That is where Ukraine made a mistake. After removing Yukowych, they could have elected a moderate, and not someone like Poroshenko who started with the mantra "armiia, mova, vira (English: military, language, faith)" (Poroshenko).

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Anyone they elected would either have triggered war, or invited Russia to take over without a fight.

Putting Quisling in charge didn't protect Norway from the Nazis; It is obviously ideal to remain free without a fight, but that option was never on the table.

The choices for Ukraine were (and remain): Fight, and hope to win, but risk defeat; Or don't fight, and be defeated for certain.

aupmanyav said:

Then, they erred in electing Zelensky who embroiled them in this long war.

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When the alternatives were to lose a short war, or to lose without even fighting back, that was a smart move.

aupmanyav said:

The world is still divided into 'spheres of influence'.

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But not at the sole discretion of the imperial powers.

aupmanyav said:

May be Putin has heard Modi's call, but Ukraine also has to come around it.

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Ukraine didn't want to fight at all. They didn't invade Russia, Russia invaded them. So what would them "hearing Modi's call" look like, that isn't capitulation?

aupmanyav said:

Otherwise the war will continue, and I do not know how will it finally end.

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Mate, you say you are in your eighties. You seriously don't have time to start listing all the things you don't know about this situation.

zorq said:

I have asked him to show a shred of evidence

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That's rich coming from someone who failed to provide a shred of evidence for his theories, like Putin will invade Europe if he wins in Ukraine.
And yes, I have provided plenty of evidence for my theories, latest one being conference in Poland where they openly discussed splitting Russia into 5 parts and then pillaging its resources.

bilby said:

If New Delhi were hit by a nuclear weapon, how different would your experience be if it were a Chinese, Russian, American or French weapon, compared with a Pakistani one?

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A hit in Delhi will not hurt India as much as a hit in Kyiv in Ukraine with no power to retaliate. India will regroup and retaliate more easily.
Although I do not like concentration of all government offices and policy-makers in Delhi within a distance of 5 kms. They should distribute them all around India, so that one hit does not destroy everything. I do not know if government of India keeps this in view or not.
My living or dying does not matter. I am just one of the 1442+ million in India.

bilby said:

Ukraine didn't want to fight at all. They didn't invade Russia, Russia invaded them.

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Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Panama, Grenada, Cuba invaded US?
Your "Russia invaded Ukraine" is getting tiresome. Yes, we invaded these motherfuckers and I am proud of it!
We should have invaded that scum country long time ago.
I don't give a shit what EU and US nazi regimes think about Russia. EU/US started this war.

Regarding India and China, they both need Russia to deal with each other. And they both need Russia the way it is now, not the way US neocon fascists want it.
China especially does not want US land forces on its northern border. And India needs counterweight to China in BRICS.
However, Russia-India trade is a mess, they need to solve it, cause right now Russia sends oil to India essentially for free.
India simply does not have anything to sell to Russia. I think BRICS currency is a necessity now. Indian rupee is not convertible.

LOL, I checked it's rate. It's pretty much equal to russian ruble. 1 indian rupee = 1.06 Russian Ruble.
That can not be a coincidence
I think India and Russia as well should try to be more like China economy wise.
Russia should actively reduce gas-oil dependency way more than it is now. I mean it's been reducing but it should be pretty much insignificant in my view.

Even Ukro-regime is seeing writing on the wall. I recently watched an ukrainian political show.
Doom and gloom is apparent.

barbos said:

zorq said:

Barbos has never justified his clams that Nuland ordered, demanded,

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Sure,

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I'm glad we agree. You have never given any evidence.

and Biden never promised to blow up Nord Stream.

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True. Yes. He never promised to "BLOW UP" Nord Stream. Biden promised to "Put an end to it." We completely agree here. Good job! Thanks for agreeing that your conspiracy theories are completely unsupported by physical evidence.

zorq said:

True. Yes. He never promised to "BLOW UP" Nord Stream. Biden promised to "Put an end to it."

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Cool, show me Putin promising to invade other EU countries after Ukraine?
And Biden did promise to promise to commit and an act of war and then commited it.
I am not a lawyer but I think it's against US laws where US Congress is the one who declares wars.

Speaking of doom and gloom in Ukraine. One thing I noticed watching these ukrainian shows is a confirmation of ukrainian stereotypes. Ukrainians have this reputation in Russia as people who are "short-sighted" and unsophisticated who are, nevertheless, clever. But overall, they are not interested in anything beyond stuff which directly affects them. If you want US analogy they are republicans or better trumpers as opposed to russians who are democrats.
They themselves even have a word for it "selyuk". It's like "redneck" but still more negative. Its literal meaning is "villager".

Anyway, that's a trait which does not serve them well. They can be easily manipulated into doing shit like what we have now.
And historically, it's not the first time they do that. They have been doing that shit for a long time.s. Compare them to Georgians. They learned their lesson pretty quickly.
Ukrainians can not govern themselves, it's better for them to be in Russia again.

aupmanyav said:

Loren Pechtel said:

You have had wars with China because you dared defy them. Why is the Ukraine situation any different?

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We are not lead by our nose by Western powers. China understands that we have an independent policy. We will decide relations with China by what policy it has for India. At the moment, it extends to restrictions on business and participation in Quad.

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You're missing a whole dimension here. Ideology.

In the west, at least, nominally, the people have power. As they do in India. China is not democratic. The Chinese government does not represent the Chinese people. The Chinese government represents the communist nobility. The Russian government represents Putin and his closest oligarch chronies. Not the Russian people.

A big problem with hating USA is that, as far as super powers go, USA is extremely benign. There is no other example in human history of a super power not exploiting it to the max (at everyone else's expense). The world's most successful super power, Great Britain, was an absolute catastrophe for everyone, including Great Brittain itself. As I am sure you.... an Indian... are aware of.

The world is always going to have one country that is the most powerful. If I had to pick one, I'd go with USA, every day of the week. Yes, they've done a lot of questionable things. But not as much as the rest.

aupmanyav said:

DrZoidberg said:

That's why I find Aupanyav position so baffling. It doesn't seem to belong to any camp.

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Yeah, I am in no camp. I am independent, like my government. I do not think my government's policy is any different.

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I am aware of that westerners tend to be a bit locked into the western perspective and blind for the real politik realities of non-western countries. India has every reason to be friendly with China and Russia. I'm not holding that against India. But that doesn't mean Indians need to find justifications for Putin's war of aggression.

You seem to conflate being friendly with Putin as justifying Putin's actions. India is a huge country with a lot of people. Many of which aren't doing so well. They don't really have the luxury to have higher ideals. Modi knows that what really counts is having a strong Indian economy. The rest of bonus. That's not the same thing as agreeing with Putin.

aupmanyav said:

Loren Pechtel said:

Encircle or invade, basically the same objective.

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Yes, the objective was the same - Remove NATO influence on Ukraine.

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But why? NATO is a defensive pact. NATO will only have influence in Ukraine if, and only if, Russia choses to attack it. Russia did attack Ukraine. So obviously NATO needs to defend it. Or Ukraine will fall. Your position sounds so confused

DrZoidberg said:

But why? NATO is a defensive pact.

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Tell that to Yugoslavians, Libyans and Iraqi.
NATO is a terrorist organization bent on world domination.

DrZoidberg said:

NATO will only have influence in Ukraine if, and only if, Russia choses to attack it. Russia did attack Ukraine. So obviously NATO needs to defend it

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NATO (US) conducted a coup overthrowing democratically elected president and installed nazi regime in Kiev which then started murdering russian population in East Ukraine trying to provoke Russian response.
NATO is a terrorist organization bent on world domination.

This day 80 years ago. "Parade" of germans in Moscow.

barbos said:

DrZoidberg said:

NATO will only have influence in Ukraine if, and only if, Russia choses to attack it. Russia did attack Ukraine. So obviously NATO needs to defend it

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NATO (US) conducted a coup overthrowing democratically elected president and installed nazi regime in Kiev which then started murdering russian population in East Ukraine trying to provoke Russian response.
NATO is a terrorist organization bent on world domination.

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Nonsense. Of course the US meddles in Ukraine as we meddle in every country in the world. As do the Russians. Yanko was legally impeached by Ukraine when he wouldn't follow Ukranian laws. He was impeached by their congress by a vote of 232 to 0! He also had more than 100 peaceful protestors killed.

aupmanyav said:

Harry Bosch said:

? And you want Ukraine to be defenseless?

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No. I want the war to end with mutually agreed terms between Russia and Ukraine (meaning not the terms that NATO may have in mind).

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Russia has laid out their terms: give up land, give up arms, give up future alliances, give up autonomy, give up nazis (how does a country give up people that don't exist?); pay back reparations. Sure, this will stop the hostilities now. But then once Russia rebuilds, it will invade and take the rest of Ukraine. Then the gulags will come. Do you understand why this scenario is not very appealing to the Ukrainians?