Are ALL historical facts really based on one "logical fallacy" or another?
Lumpenproletariat's arguments use a combination of bandwagon fallacy, . . .
bandwagon: everyone believes it so it must be true.
It is normal to grant greater credibility to reports if there are extra sources for the same report, or indications that those who believe the report are a large number rather than a small number.
The basic bandwagon fallacy, or Argmentum ad populum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum , applies only to claims of
certainty or PROOF of one's claim. However, if the appeal to popular acceptance of the belief is only used as further evidence of the truth,
without claiming certainty, then it is a legitimate basis for belief, or increased credibility, or higher likelihood of truth, for the claim being made.
So this "bandwagon" argument is not a fallacy but is legitimate for indicating a
higher level of credibility of the Jesus miracle acts as opposed to some other miracle claims, such as for Hanina ben dosa, contemporary of Jesus and yet for whom there is no recorded evidence of his miracle acts until at least 150 years later, in Talmud sources from 200 AD and later.
We clearly have written accounts of the Jesus miracle acts within 30-50 years of the reputed events, and it's clear that a new explosion of fictitious miracle stories began soon after, from about 100 AD and later. So clearly the later explosion of miracle stories indicates the increasing belief in such stories after 100 AD, while much earlier the Jesus stories appeared abruptly and obviously became popular much nearer to the time of the alleged events, and not as part of some new explosion of such stories. What made these early Jesus miracle stories spread so fast, while those of his contemporary Hanina ben dosa don't appear until after 200?
And a similar comparison applies to the other miracle-worker legends appearing after the gospel accounts about Jesus. And the early Jesus stories are obviously copied by the later fictitious accounts, for which a popularity begins appearing in the later centuries but for which there is no indication of any belief or popularity near to the time the events allegedly happened.
If no one really believed those stories -- of
Simon Magus, or
Hanina ben dosa, or
Apollonius of Tyana -- near to the time they allegedly happened, but only centuries later, while we have evidence of the Jesus miracle events from multiple accounts within the first century, and the new religion, or Christ cult(s) spreading the word of him and pronouncing him a deity or Messiah, etc., this indicates that there were vast numbers who believed these reports, long before 100 AD, some writing it down, so there are multiple accounts, some which were copied and spread throughout the region.
Whereas for Apollonius of Tyana there is no account of any miracle he allegedly did until after 200 AD. Doesn't this add credibility to the Jesus miracle claims by comparison? with such a vast number of those spreading these claims within such a short time span after it allegedly happened? while for Apollonius there is total silence until after 200 AD?
Even if you dismiss all miracle claims as fiction, based on the premise that there can be no such events, don't you have to admit that in the case of Jesus there is a greater element of credibility, i.e., of likelihood -- not PROOF -- but of a higher probability of it being true than in the case of Apollonius? Doesn't the Jesus case cast some extra doubt on the premise that there can be no such event, because of this extra evidence, in comparison to the lack of evidence for the case of Apollonius?
If such extra evidence is so easy to appear, because "people make up shit," then
why isn't there any other example of a case which is documented so early after the date of the alleged event(s)?
For normal historical events -- those routinely believed -- a greater amount of written evidence or attestation to the event, claiming it happened, increases the possibility that it did actually happen and reduces the doubt, even if one still does doubt. That much greater numbers believed it or wrote about it or attested to it undermines the doubt and undermines the premise that such an event could not have happened.
. . . sharpshooter fallacy, . . .
An archer shoots the arrow anywhere, then wherever it hits he draws a target around that point and declares "Bullseye!" -- Sneaky.
This seems to mean false correlations, or correlations which really prove nothing but are just coincidental, and one can always find apparent correlations in anything. One first looks for and identifies some kind of "correlation" (which can always be found) and then insists that this correlation is somehow proof of one's belief, but without knowing at the outset what the correlation would be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
But to prove that this fallacy has been committed you have to show how the same kind of false correlation could also be used to prove a contradictory conclusion, or a competing theory/scenario. If you cannot demonstrate that the same arguing process leads to that contrary conclusion, then you've not shown that this fallacy was committed. E.g., you have to shoot another arrow randomly, then paint a target where that arrow struck and declare, "See, this is the real Bullseye," or "this Bullseye is just as legitimate as that one."
I.e., one must show that any miracle-worker legend taken at random can be shown to be just as credible as the Jesus miracle-worker legend, based on the evidence. It should be possible to use ANY miracle-worker legend to make this point, thus showing that the Jesus legend has no more credibility than any of the others.
And yet, those making this argument keep using Joseph Smith as the only example of a miracle-worker analogous to the Jesus case, rather than citing other examples for which an equally strong case should be possible. They keep seizing on the Joseph Smith example (only because of the widespread publishing in modern times and thus the accounts from eye witnesses who were all his direct disciples, copying the Jesus miracle stories and pretending to make their Prophet equally credible to the Jesus case).
But this makes it clear that it's not a "sharpshooter" fallacy taking place here, but rather a real example of a possible higher degree of evidence, and the real question is on the amount of evidence or the quality of the evidence, and not about any logical fallacy.
For it to be a "sharpshooter" fallacy, you have to show that there is equal evidence for ANY claimed miracle legend. You have to prove that there is equal evidence for St. George or Perseus or Hercules or Sai Baba or Zoroaster and so on, because the same kind of reasoning would lead to the same conclusion that this one hero alone is clearly the only true Real McCoy miracle-worker far out-shining all the others.
So, shoot your Perseus arrow, e.g., and draw your bulls-eye to show how this logic proves that Perseus is the real superhuman hero. Or Simon Magus or Bacchus or Horus etc. -- the same argument works equally well for all of them, if this is really a "sharpshooter" fallacy.
. . . false dilemma fallacy . . .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma or the false dichotomy -- it's either this or that. Black and white, you must choose A or B, no in-between, choose one and reject the other.
Here's the closest to a hard choice: EITHER Jesus had superhuman power, a life-giving power, which he demonstrated in the miracle acts -- OR you have to assume he is the only miracle hero fiction character which cannot be explained as a product of normal mythologizing.
I.e., we can explain how all other miracle myth heroes were produced or popularized through the normal mythologizing process, but this one case alone, Jesus of Galilee/Judea in about 30 AD, stands out as the only one which cannot be explained, i.e., which originated somehow without the help of the normal mythologizing process which explains ALL the other known miracle myth heroes.
I.e., we have one miracle myth hero for which there is no explanation as to the origin of the legend or fictional account, and ONLY this one, so that the origin of this legend is either unknown, or the origin is simply that the miracle events described in the gospel accounts actually did happen.
So either there is no explanation known, or the explanation is that the miracle events really happened. Take your pick -- one or the other -- either this or that.
Saying we don't know the explanation is not unreasonable. Much is not known. There might still be an explanation which is unknown. Is it so difficult to just say that in this one case we cannot explain the origin of the miracle myth legend, whereas we can recognize the origin in all the other cases? i.e., in EACH case taken one by one?
And it's no explanation to just bellow, "Aw, people make shit up!" This outburst simply obliterates every miracle claim per se with no explanation or further elaboration on how this particular miracle story originated and was believed. But we can take each one individually and explain it as a product of normal mythologizing. -- i.e., there were several generations which passed during which the myths developed, or the hero figure had been a famous celebrity, etc.
So the explanation has to say something specific about the individual case, not something that applies to every imaginable example of a miracle claim. Is this a "false dilemma" fallacy? What is fallacious about this dichotomy?
. . . and a sprinkling of baseless assertion.
The most important assertions are that the gospel accounts and Paul epistles were written from 30 to 70 years after the alleged events, while there were no other cases of miracle events recorded in more than one document less than 100 years after the alleged events, and the closest to any exception might be an occasional celebrity figure who was famous enough to be popularized early and benefit from his widespread reputation after a long colorful career, i.e., becoming a "legend in his own time" which led to him being credited with a supernatural act of some kind.
If this assertion is true, then we have the Jesus case as the only one which cannot be explained as a product of normal mythologizing.
What's another example of a mythic miracle legend which cannot be explained as a product of normal mythologizing? "Normal" = the mythic hero, if he began as a real person, was a popular celebrity in his time who did something of distinction, and/or there was a long period of time or many generations during which the myths evolved.
Isn't this how legends emerge? The real person was someone special and widely recognized, and/or it required many generations for the legend to acquire the miracle or superhuman element.
A great deal of the walls of text have to do with painting a bulls-eye around his favorite fairy tale that excludes all the other similar tales, . . .
But what similar bulls-eye could just as easily be painted around any other "fairy tale" example of a miracle-worker hero? Presumably if this fallacy is at work, then the same trick can be played of painting the bulls-eye around any of the "fairy tale" heroes. So take any other example and paint the bulls-eye around it in order to show how this is fallacious.
. . . along with rationalizing evidence that doesn't fit his intended conclusion.
Many comparisons have been made. One recent post about Jesus-like miracle-worker parallels gave Honi the Circle-Drawer and Hanina ben dosa as examples of other miracle-workers who are supposed to be just as credible as the Jesus case. My "rationalizing evidence" is that the only evidence we have for these cases are from at least 150 years after the alleged events happened, so that there was a long time for normal mythologizing to take place, as we see it in many other examples, whereas for the Jesus case the time span was much too short for this to be the explanation. How does this not support the intended conclusion that the evidence for the Jesus miracles is more credible?
Where is the evidence that the Jesus case is in the same category as all these other examples and can be explained just as easily as they can be? Where is the evidence for the Perseus and Asclepius and Hercules miracles which makes those legends just as credible as the Jesus legend for which we have evidence in multiple sources dated within 30-70 years after the alleged events? How does the shorter time span from the events to the reports about them not fit the intended conclusion that these reported events are more credible?
What explanation is there, other than the knee-jerk emotional outburst, "Aw people fuckin' make up shit! . . . . etc."? You can do better than this to explain the origin of the Simon Magus and Perseus etc. legends. You can say there was a long time in which the stories could evolve. We see the mythologizing process at work in these other cases, because of particular facts about them. But for the Jesus case, all you can come up with is "Aw, people make up shit!" Why is this the only example where you have to fall back on this slogan?
The short version is that Jeezus is the only one true god-man because his story is the only one that is really popular that is . . .
No, get the chronology correct -- "his story" is the only one that WAS popular near to the time the events happened. Popularity 500+ years later is irrelevant. So, within 50 years or so after the alleged events we have multiple reports of them, which was not so in the other cases.
. . . the only one . . . built around a hero who was so obscure during his lifetime that he went completely unnoticed by contemporary historians, yet made such a big splash with his miracles that everyone over a 1500 mile radius knew he was for real.
His local reputation could have spread beyond just Galilee and Judea (not "a 1500 mile radius") during his time without any notice from mainline historians, as 99.9999999% of humans were ignored by them, while this case finally became noticed as the oral and written reports increased and were copied.
All this fits exactly with what we have. He had to have done something highly irregular to have received the attention eventually paid to him in the written accounts. The irregularity and impact of it resulted in the reports being spread further and being written and copied. The actual occurrence of the miracle events explains everything perfectly, whereas if it is fiction, there is no explanation yet that fits these facts or this written evidence that has been transmitted to later generations.
That we know anything whatever of this 1st-century person, whose public career was only 3 years at most, requires that something extremely irregular must have happened in this case.
He's unlike Joseph Smith because his own disciples weren't the ones telling about miracles he worked but instead it was completely anonymous onlookers that did so.
In addition to this, we can easily explain the Smith miracle stories as copycat stories patterned after the Jesus healing stories. This is another factor which enables the mythologizing process, where the guru falls back on a longstanding earlier religious tradition as a basis for his acts, which adds credibility and persuades the disciples.
This can be seen as part of the mythologizing process with many miracle myth heroes, explaining how the stories were believed and the legend could get started. Unlike the Jesus example where there is no earlier religious healer whose name he invoked to support his claim to power.
Also Joseph Smith had a printing press to work with, . . .
No, there were thousands of publishers printing stories in one form or another, making Joseph Smith into a widely-known and notorious public figure and propagating his radical claims, while if he had been a 1st-century figure, nothing would have been published and today there'd be no record of him whatever. In fact there probably were some "Joseph Smiths" running around back then.
. . . which everyone knows you had to have a printing press before folks could make up stories.
No, millions of folks made up stories, but today's widespread publishing industry made it possible to propagate one's stories in a way that was impossible a few centuries earlier. (You're not too dumb to figure this out.)
So either Jesus worked all these miracles for real or he's the only obscure person anyone ever made up miracle stories about within decades of his disappearance.
Close, but not just "made up miracle stories about . . ." etc., but also recruited converts who
believed the stories. If the stories had been invented by the storyteller and were not real events, then the number of believers would be vastly smaller. I.e., there's no way to explain how so many came to believe the stories in such a short time if they were simply invented. It's because they were credible that more believed them. The reports must have come from enough different directions, from different persons or witnesses, that people became convinced, unlike in all the other cases where such stories were summarily dismissed, or received only a lukewarm response.
And even though there is absolutely not one whit of physical evidence he ever actually existed . . .
That's the case for virtually every person who lived before 1000 or 1500 AD. There's virtually no "physical evidence" that any such person you can name actually existed. (You might claim a dozen or so such persons, depending on the meaning of "one whit of physical evidence.")
. . . we can be certain he existed for the exact same reasons we can be certain that George Washington existed.
No, this kind of exaggeration is totally unnecessary.
There are easily thousands of historical figures -- maybe millions -- for whom there is less evidence than we have for the existence of Jesus Christ. I.e., historical figures who are routinely believed to have existed because they are mentioned in written accounts.
Oh, and being skeptical of miracles means you're just being dogmatic.
No it's NOT being skeptical that is dogmatic. Skepticism or doubt is a legitimate part of believing. The dogmatic premise that miracle events cannot have ever happened and must be ruled out despite any evidence is based on dogmatism, not skepticism.
Being skeptical means leaving open the possibility that some miracle events may have happened, which leaves open the possibility of believing in Christ, or the possibility that the miracle stories could be true and that he had power.
The insistence that science has disproved miracles, or has proved them to be impossible, and that such events can never happen is based on dogmatism and a rejection of skepticism, which leaves open the possibility by acknowledging that we don't know for sure.
Jeezus also has 3-5 independent and anonymous sources, drawn from the common Q source, which Joseph Smith doesn’t have. . . . with the Jeezus miracle stories clearly coming from these mysterious and curious onlookers, wouldn’t that make it 30-40 independent sources?
The "sources" as our evidence refers to the documents we have today, i.e., OUR sources. But these in turn drew upon earlier "sources."
The origin of the stories was earlier than the eventual writers/editors who provided the N.T. accounts. The gospel writers and Paul did not make up the stories but got them from earlier reports. If they were "made up," it had to be by someone earlier than the final writers of the accounts we now have.