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2020 Election Results

Elixir said:
Angry Floof said:
I'm sure Jason is busy out collecting evidence of election tampering and voter fraud. Give him time, people. He's going to come back with mind blowing and credible information proving Democrat shenanigans.
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Maybe Trausti has teamed up with him? Haven't seen him here since election day. :D
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I have full confidence they will blow this thing wide open and return victorious.
 
I'm now able to extend my work on the Democratic Swing 32 to the entire Democratic House delegation.

I've found some recent vote counts in The Guardian, though they are a bit out of date. Tom Suozzi (D-NY-03) was losing in that one, though he is recently winning, though by a small margin in both cases.

I've also been using the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index, GovTrack.US's Liberal - Conservative Ideology Score, and sponsorship of a Medicare for All bill and a Green New Deal resolution.

I checked on whether supporting M4A and GND were electoral poison in the recent election, and I found out that they *helped* about 2%. To make the candidates as evenly matched as possible, I split the candidates into two groups: supporters of at least one of M4A and GND, and supporters of none of these. I then selected which candidates are the range of the other's data points, so I don't have the complication of points outside the other kind's range.

I had plenty of candidates, 118 for and 89 against before this culling, and 76 for and 62 against after it.

I then used Mathematica's "Predict" function to try to predict the margins of each kind of candidate from their Cook-PVI and GT-Ideo scores. Mathematica picked linear regression for that purpose, fitting to a straight line.

Fitting to "for" and checking on "against" reveals that "for" does about 2% better on average than "against". That was also true of fitting to "against" and checking on "for". The fits had standard-deviation scatters of about 8%. Doing the fits on the complete sets of points, without this region selection, reveals the same offset and the same stdev.

That means of the 13 fallen D incumbents from recent count values, 5 of them could have survived if they had embraced M4A and/or GND.
 
lpetrich said:
That means of the 13 fallen D incumbents from recent count values, 5 of them could have survived if they had embraced M4A and/or GND.
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This is good. Think about where M4A was two elections ago - all but non existent. Before that, just a crazy joke that few if any candidates would utter. I actually like the trajectory of M4A so far. It's fairly fast compared to other progressive changes that have taken decade after decade after decade to come to pass. And this during an unprecedented right wing effort to undermine democracy and ruin everything progressive or helpful to anyone other than rich white people.
 
AOC Is Standing Up for the Left
About centrist attacks on the left,
In the face of these attacks, AOC has proven herself a tireless and astute spokesperson for the Left. Instead of slinking into the background, hoping the attacks might subside, she’s hit back at centrist attempts to muddy the waters and squelch the Left.

Her strategy in responding to detractors has been threefold. First, she’s setting the record straight politically. ...

Secondly, AOC has argued that the electoral organization and campaign infrastructure of the Democratic Party is outmoded and that she knows how to do it better. ...

The third piece of AOC’s argument is that Democrats shouldn’t be pointing fingers and blaming each other right now, calling her detractors “irresponsible” for attacking their colleagues. ...
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Lawsuits that tried to disrupt Biden's wins in four states are withdrawn - CNNPolitics
Voters in four states who had brought longshot lawsuits to disrupt President-elect Joe Biden's win and went nowhere in court dropped their cases Monday morning.

The cases were short-lived in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania federal courts, and fed into a pro-Donald Trump legal strategy to block Biden's presidential win before the Electoral College formalizes it.

That effort is almost certain to fail -- even more so now. Cases seeking to block battleground states' popular vote wins for Biden are getting fewer by the day, with two from the Trump campaign before federal judges in Michigan and Pennsylvania, one from an elector in Georgia, and one from pollwatchers in Michigan.
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For good reason - lack of evidence in many cases.
The lawsuits admitted they didn't have evidence of voter fraud -- and instead believed "expert" reports might later show illegal votes. "This evidence will be shortly forthcoming when the relevant official documents are final and available," each of the lawsuits said in their initial filings last week. The expert reports apparently never materialized.
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Admitting that they don't have anything to point to?
 
Opinion | Trump, the Absolute Worst Loser - The New York Times - "He has spent his life gaming the system, so it’s no surprise that he can’t accept defeat."

He hopes to get a Supreme Court victory, it seems.

Failing that, he hopes to attack the election process itself.
His Twitter feed since the election — he has made precious few appearances or official statements during this time — has been an unprecedented attack on election integrity and the voting franchise as a whole.

He keeps complaining that the election was rigged, that it was stolen from him, that computer software switched millions of votes from him to Joe Biden.
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Donald J. Trump on Twitter: "He only won in the eyes of the FAKE NEWS MEDIA. I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go. This was a RIGGED ELECTION!" / Twitter

That's the original text, complete with all-caps shouting.

Charles Blow also noted the Republican politicians who have been remarkably willing to enable him.
 
lpetrich said:
Lawsuits that tried to disrupt Biden's wins in four states are withdrawn - CNNPolitics
Voters in four states who had brought longshot lawsuits to disrupt President-elect Joe Biden's win and went nowhere in court dropped their cases Monday morning.

The cases were short-lived in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania federal courts, and fed into a pro-Donald Trump legal strategy to block Biden's presidential win before the Electoral College formalizes it.

That effort is almost certain to fail -- even more so now. Cases seeking to block battleground states' popular vote wins for Biden are getting fewer by the day, with two from the Trump campaign before federal judges in Michigan and Pennsylvania, one from an elector in Georgia, and one from pollwatchers in Michigan.
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For good reason - lack of evidence in many cases.
The lawsuits admitted they didn't have evidence of voter fraud -- and instead believed "expert" reports might later show illegal votes. "This evidence will be shortly forthcoming when the relevant official documents are final and available," each of the lawsuits said in their initial filings last week. The expert reports apparently never materialized.
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Admitting that they don't have anything to point to?
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"We don't have evidence now but we believe we will later on." :rofl: So trumpish.
 
Ga. secretary of state says fellow Republicans are pressuring him to find ways to exclude legal ballots - The Washington Post
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Monday that he has come under increasing pressure in recent days from fellow Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.), to question the validity of legally cast absentee ballots in an effort to reverse President Trump’s narrow loss in the state.

...
The pressure on Raffensperger, who has bucked his party in defending the state’s voting process, comes as Georgia is in the midst of a laborious hand recount of about 5 million ballots. President-elect Joe Biden has a 14,000-vote lead in the initial count.
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Somehow, Trump keeps making his obvious electoral loss even more obvious - The Washington Post

"In Arizona, he has no route to overturning the results. The state does not allow candidates to call for recounts, and recounts are done only if the results are within one-tenth of 1 percent." Biden is ahead there by three times that margin.

"In Georgia, a recount is underway as mandated by law. A Bloomberg News review of the proceedings published Sunday afternoon found that 48 of 159 counties in the state had completed their reviews of the votes cast. In most cases, only a handful of additional votes were added."

So it looks like the initial count will not have much change.

"In Wisconsin, the Trump campaign can request a recount after votes are finalized in each county, the deadline for which is Tuesday. If it chooses to do so, the results are likely to mirror those in Georgia. Unlike in Georgia, the campaign itself will have to foot the bill."

I can imagine Trump bellowing with rage as he learns of that.

In Pennsylvania, Trump's legal efforts were scaled back, and "the suit now focuses on whether voters were allowed to fix rejected absentee ballots. If this argument is upheld, the effect would be limited to a small fraction of votes cast."

So his nearly 1% loss in PA will stand.

Trump's election legal team has shrunk down to 5 loyalists.
In other words, Trump’s core legal team is now mostly made up of lawyers known more for their engagement with conservative media and public advocacy than for winning well-honed arguments challenging election results. It’s a team of lawyers focused on bolstering Trump more than on overturning any election results. It’s less a legal dream team than it is a @realDonaldTrump Twitter list named “good lawyers."
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Just like their boss, with his evidence-free claims about the election process.
 
Georgia recount: Newly found votes in Floyd County could benefit Trump
A recount in Georgia’s presidential race found more than 2,600 ballots in Floyd County that hadn’t originally been tallied, likely helping President Donald Trump reduce his 14,000-vote deficit to Joe Biden.

Trump could gain about 800 net votes from the newly discovered ballots.

The problem occurred because county election officials didn’t upload votes from a memory card in an ballot scanning machine, said Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager.
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He called it "an amazing blunder" and he stated that the county's director of elections ought to resign.
The uncounted ballots in Floyd County is the most significant issue found so far during Georgia’s recount. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has said that other counties' recounted figures closely match their original numbers.
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So Biden will still win Georgia, even if by a somewhat smaller margin.
 
lpetrich said:
AOC Is Standing Up for the Left
About centrist attacks on the left,
In the face of these attacks, AOC has proven herself a tireless and astute spokesperson for the Left. Instead of slinking into the background, hoping the attacks might subside, she’s hit back at centrist attempts to muddy the waters and squelch the Left.

Her strategy in responding to detractors has been threefold. First, she’s setting the record straight politically. ...

Secondly, AOC has argued that the electoral organization and campaign infrastructure of the Democratic Party is outmoded and that she knows how to do it better. ...

The third piece of AOC’s argument is that Democrats shouldn’t be pointing fingers and blaming each other right now, calling her detractors “irresponsible” for attacking their colleagues. ...
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I wish sometimes Ocasio-Cortez would kind of remember she isn't a prophet and that winning a heavily Democratic district in the Bronx doesn't make her an expert on this nationally..

Now if Stacey Abrams wants to lecture us about how to modify electioneering for the Democrats, I am all ears! Abrams was behind the machine that made Georgia blue! She gets what many of the others don't.
 
lpetrich said:
Georgia recount: Newly found votes in Floyd County could benefit Trump
A recount in Georgia’s presidential race found more than 2,600 ballots in Floyd County that hadn’t originally been tallied, likely helping President Donald Trump reduce his 14,000-vote deficit to Joe Biden.

Trump could gain about 800 net votes from the newly discovered ballots.

The problem occurred because county election officials didn’t upload votes from a memory card in an ballot scanning machine, said Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager.
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He called it "an amazing blunder" and he stated that the county's director of elections ought to resign.
The uncounted ballots in Floyd County is the most significant issue found so far during Georgia’s recount. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has said that other counties' recounted figures closely match their original numbers.
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So Biden will still win Georgia, even if by a somewhat smaller margin.
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Mistakes happen, but 2,600... that's a lot of votes. I wonder how that affected smaller races.
 
This is a long video by Stand-Up Maths, a dissection of another poorly thought out straw clutching of normal election results



I will say this, if there was voter fraud (I am NOT saying there was) by any group that was successful on a multistate level, it would be done by people like the CIA who don't want a crazy guy who can fly off the handle at any time for pitifully trivial reasons and cock up larger long term geopolitical plans. This kind of thing would not be able to be traced at all.

In a way, this very unlikely scenario of a CIA etc... coup like the 1955 and 1960s US led Vietnam sham elections would be Trump's own fault for being a narcissistic wacko.

One could say that if Trump won the 2016 election through election meddling by Russia that it would be the CIA/NSA and so on's responsibility to make sure that he would not be reelected.

 
As a G.O.P. Playbook on Voter Fraud Falls Flat, Some Ask: What’s Next? - The New York Times - "In dozens of lawsuits, Republicans tried to make voting and counting votes harder. After a record turnout and a Democratic presidential win, some wonder if that’s the party’s best strategy."
It was an election where Republican charges of fictitious voter fraud took center stage before, during and after the count, backed by a barrage of lawsuits intent on making it harder to cast or tally votes.

Yet by its end, Americans had cast ballots at a rate not seen in a century. A Democrat was elected president. And Republicans drew surprising support from Black and Latino voters — the very groups the party historically targeted with restrictive voting laws in state after state.

That a strategy Republicans long relied on largely fell flat, experts say, can be explained by the partisan divisions that drove record turnout, by self-inflicted wounds on the part of President Trump and by a pandemic that turned a gradual trend toward voting early — by mail or in person — into a stampede.
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Claims of massive voter fraud, while baseless, are nevertheless politically convenient.
“As long as the Republican Party is going to depend on whiter, older and more rural electorate,” said Richard L. Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California, Irvine, “they’re going to make it harder for some people to register and vote.” Assertions of fraud, he said, fire up loyalists, increase political contributions and delegitimize Democratic victories.

“Already,” Dr. Hasen said, “Biden is going to come into office with millions of people believing falsely that he cheated his way into the presidency.”

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Mr. Trump’s fact-challenged crusade against voting by mail, which he variously labeled “a scam,” “corrupt” and “dangerous,” “was a real head-scratcher to me,” Mr. Straus said. “Many Republicans, including myself, benefited from mail-in voting over the years.”
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Republicans are split.
Legal efforts to restrict mail balloting gained little traction this fall, but that could be temporary. Speaking on a podcast this past week, the former Republican governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, said falsely that all major industrialized nations have “gotten rid of or don’t have ballots by mail.” Citing unspecified “shenanigans” in mail ballots this fall, he called for the United States to outlaw absentee voting in all but limited circumstances.

...
And some Republicans even suggested that the party might do better competing for Democratic-leaning voters than trying to discourage them.

“We saw with Joe Biden’s nomination that African-Americans are not exactly lefties, and we saw with the Latino vote in South Florida that an argument against socialism can be very persuasive,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican campaign strategist. “So there are avenues to expand the Republican coalition if we are savvy enough to take advantage of them.”
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What about all the GOP vote suppression and confusion efforts before the election? The fake ballot drop off boxes, the removal of polling places, the misinformation and scare tactics, the opposition to mail in ballots, etc.? Any lawsuits there?
 
Angry Floof said:
What about all the GOP vote suppression and confusion efforts before the election? The fake ballot drop off boxes, the removal of polling places, the misinformation and scare tactics, the opposition to mail in ballots, etc.? Any lawsuits there?
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All true, and it shows that the Republican Party is not likely to change anytime soon. Consider Scott Walker in the article, saying that he wants to outlaw most absentee voting.

Trump campaign drops key request in Pennsylvania lawsuit - another story on that

Sahil Kapur on Twitter: "Republican infighting in Georgia intensifies as Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger goes after Doug Collins, who leads Trump’s recount efforts in the state: “Failed candidate Doug Collins is a liar— but what’s new?” he writes on Facebook. https://t.co/Earo0Fff9L" / Twitter


GOP senators shrug off Trump's conspiracies over election results: 'He can say whatever he wants' - CNNPolitics
How convenient.
 
Angry Floof said:
What about all the GOP vote suppression and confusion efforts before the election? The fake ballot drop off boxes, the removal of polling places, the misinformation and scare tactics, the opposition to mail in ballots, etc.? Any lawsuits there?
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Most of that stuff isn't illegal.

IMG_5422.JPG

And for those things that are possibly illegal, the Democrats have this bizarre disinclination to persue lawsuits when they don't think there's sufficient evidence to win in court.
 
barbos said:
You can't make this shit up:
https://buffalochronicle.com/2020/1...he-election-and-why-he-may-flip-on-joe-biden/

EXCLUSIVE: How a Philly mob boss stole the election — and why he may flip on Joe Biden
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Is it even technically possible?
Aren't ballots have serial numbers or something to help to prevent this kind of shit?
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The precinct where the extra ballots were delivered might possibly notice that they counted 300,000 more ballots than people who actually voted. Just sayin... :rolleyes:
 
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