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2020 Election Results

Jayjay said:
Wait what? Based on what do you think Biden's winning? He is far behind in every state that's still in play, except Maine and Arizona.
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Sure; But he needs any two of the five states still in serious doubt (while Trump needs four); And in four of them, the majority of votes to be counted are early and postal votes from urban and suburban counties.

It's difficult to see how Biden can fail to win at least two from MI, WI and PA (which is enough); He could also still win GA and/or NC, though those are less likely - it depends on just how strongly the yet to be counted pre-election day ballots skew towards the Dems.

It's difficult to see how Trump can hold onto his lead in four of those five, other than by resorting to attempts to stop those largely Democratic ballots from being counted.

AZ is not likely to go to Trump at this point (Fox News have called it for Biden). It's perhaps more plausible that TX could go to Biden, though that too seems unlikely.
 
Biden will win by just a few electoral votes if he doesn't get at least 2 of those other states (now that he has MI).

Then the whining about the stolen election starts.
 
abaddon said:
Biden will win by just a few electoral votes if he doesn't get at least 2 of those other states (now that he has MI).

Then the whining about the stolen election starts.
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It's started.

Trump knows he's lost, and he's right.

And, as predicted by everyone, he's declaring that his loss is due to fraud.
 
Please tell me there's just going to be one more fucking day of this.
 
bilby said:
Jayjay said:
Wait what? Based on what do you think Biden's winning? He is far behind in every state that's still in play, except Maine and Arizona.
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Sure; But he needs any two of the five states still in serious doubt (while Trump needs four); And in four of them, the majority of votes to be counted are early and postal votes from urban and suburban counties.

It's difficult to see how Biden can fail to win at least two from MI, WI and PA (which is enough); He could also still win GA and/or NC, though those are less likely - it depends on just how strongly the yet to be counted pre-election day ballots skew towards the Dems.
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I know I'm relying almost two hours in the future, with benefit of hindsight, but I just don't see what you are seeing. PA is definitely going to Trump, there is no way for postal votes to gap the difference. Trump also has an eight point lead in MI at the time I'm writing this. WI is closer, but it also has most votes counted by this time. I think Trump has won, and he doesn't even have to go to the courts to do it.

abaddon said:
Biden will win by just a few electoral votes if he doesn't get at least 2 of those other states (now that he has MI).

Then the whining about the stolen election starts.
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"Now that he has MI". I just wonder, what sources everyone else is using for following this election, to make this kind of conclusions. I have ABC, Fox and Google (AP) results in three tabs. They all seem to confirm the same thing, that Trump is on his way to victory with a clear margin.
 
I'm looking at Teh Grauniad's map and most of the in-doubt states - with the exception of Nevada - have Trump in front. How is Trump not the favourite to win this?
 
I look at https://electoral-vote.com/.
It says 90% reported for Wisconsin, Do they mean only 10% is left to count?
If that's the case WI is lost. And I don't see Biden winning remaining PA+MI.

Looks like POS is going to win again.

I have a suspicion that mail-in are not yet in the total count so 90% number may not be accurate.
 
It's not about what proportion of votes are yet to be counted; It's about where those votes come from.

In PA, for example, Trump has a fairly solid lead - if you assume that the votes still to be counted will roughly be distributed as the votes counted so far have been, the Trump would surely win. But that's not the case.

The rural counties have been almost completely counted. The uncounted votes yet to be tallied are from the cities - mostly from Philadelphia. And they will likely be 70-90% for Biden. Even the lower end of that range would be enough to eliminate Trump's lead, and give the state to Biden.

The story is similar in MI and WI, and particularly in GA, where a burst water pipe caused the early votes not to be counted at all - almost all of the un-counted votes are urban, and almost almost all the votes already counted are rural.

To observers used to fairly homogeneous voting districts, a candidate being ahead by 4% with 20% left to count has almost certainly won. But that's just not the case in these undecided states, where the 20% left to count are almost all for the candidate who is currently trailing.
 
Senate seems to stay in Mitch's necrotic hands also. Dems gain two seats, AZ & GA, but probably lose MI. Either way falling short of 51.
 
bilby said:
It's not about what proportion of votes are yet to be counted; It's about where those votes come from.

In PA, for example, Trump has a fairly solid lead - if you assume that the votes still to be counted will roughly be distributed as the votes counted so far have been, the Trump would surely win. But that's not the case.

The rural counties have been almost completely counted. The uncounted votes yet to be tallied are from the cities - mostly from Philadelphia. And they will likely be 70-90% for Biden. Even the lower end of that range would be enough to eliminate Trump's lead, and give the state to Biden.

The story is similar in MI and WI, and particularly in GA, where a burst water pipe caused the early votes not to be counted at all - almost all of the un-counted votes are urban, and almost almost all the votes already counted are rural.

To observers used to fairly homogeneous voting districts, a candidate being ahead by 4% with 20% left to count has almost certainly won. But that's just not the case in these undecided states, where the 20% left to count are almost all for the candidate who is currently trailing.
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PA and MI have 30% to count. But deficit in PA is way too large.
MI alone is not enough. The only hope now it to get both MI and NC
 
bilby said:
It's not about what proportion of votes are yet to be counted; It's about where those votes come from.

In PA, for example, Trump has a fairly solid lead - if you assume that the votes still to be counted will roughly be distributed as the votes counted so far have been, the Trump would surely win. But that's not the case.

The rural counties have been almost completely counted. The uncounted votes yet to be tallied are from the cities - mostly from Philadelphia. And they will likely be 70-90% for Biden. Even the lower end of that range would be enough to eliminate Trump's lead, and give the state to Biden.

The story is similar in MI and WI, and particularly in GA, where a burst water pipe caused the early votes not to be counted at all - almost all of the un-counted votes are urban, and almost almost all the votes already counted are rural.

To observers used to fairly homogeneous voting districts, a candidate being ahead by 4% with 20% left to count has almost certainly won. But that's just not the case in these undecided states, where the 20% left to count are almost all for the candidate who is currently trailing.
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Looking at PA counties, Philadelphia shows about half the votes are counted, and Biden leading that county only by 190k votes. So in the final count it'll probably just gain another 190k from Philly. Other unfinished counties have Biden leading with much smaller margins. Trump is leading the state by almost 700k votes at the time, with 12 point lead and 65-75% of votes counted (depending on source). Even in the most generous scenario I can imagine, Trump will still win PA.
 
I guess all the election desks should have called it for Trump already then. Why do you think they haven't?
 
Jayjay said:
abaddon said:
Biden will win by just a few electoral votes if he doesn't get at least 2 of those other states (now that he has MI).

Then the whining about the stolen election starts.
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"Now that he has MI". I just wonder, what sources everyone else is using for following this election, to make this kind of conclusions. I have ABC, Fox and Google (AP) results in three tabs. They all seem to confirm the same thing, that Trump is on his way to victory with a clear margin.
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Ok, I goofed and put MI and meant MN. He appears to have NV and AZ and ME in the bag also.

I'm looking at nypost's map and relying (possibly too much) on comments from news folk at their screens going on about projections.
 
So, what I'm reading is that 93% of Republicans voted for Trump, up from 90% from 2016.

I'm sure working with the Lincoln Project grifters was worth it in the long term...
 
blastula said:
I guess all the election desks should have called it for Trump already then. Why do you think they haven't?
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Because they got burned in 2016. Also, it's better entertainment to drag this as long as possible.
 
They didn't get burned calling races.
 
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