dannyk
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Woo hoo! Go Wisconsin!
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2020 Election Results
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Jayjay
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Wisconsin isn't enough. Biden has to win Michigan, or he loses. Currently Trump is leading by 4.6 points, with 5/6th of votes counted. That means that in the remaining votes, Biden has to lead by more than 5 x 4.6 = 23 points. In other words 62% vs 38% or better for Biden. I find that very, very unlikely, even if the remaining votes were from urban areas and mail-in ballots.
dannyk
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If he pulls off Wisconsin I'd say he will pull of Michigan and Pennsylvania.
bilby
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In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 66.8% of the vote in Wayne County (which includes Detroit, and is by FAR the most populous county in Michigan).
It's perfectly plausible that Biden could poll more than 62% of the remaining votes, which are not only mostly from Wayne county, but are also mail-in and early votes, both of which classes of ballot skew heavily towards Biden.
Indeed, it would be surprising if Biden didn't win MI, given the types of votes yet to be counted, and the counties in which they were cast.
Jayjay
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Currently, Wayne County is only 59% to Biden, with about half the votes counted so far (though Fox says 60%, but that's even worse). If rest of the county goes the same way, it's not enough.
dannyk
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The remaining ballots are predominantly mail in ballots. Extrapolating existing percentages isn't appropriate
bilby
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What part of "both of which classes of ballot skew heavily towards Biden" is giving you a problem here?
The Republicans have been counted, because they almost all chose to vote 'on the day'. The Democrat voters chose to vote early or by mail, and are the voters who have not yet been counted. This isn't just a subtle bias, it's practically an exact mirror of the ideological division between the two parties.
About three quarters of the ballots yet to be counted in MI are likely to be for Biden. Which puts the final result very much in doubt. Which is why the non-partisan experts are refusing to call the state.
Jimmy Higgins
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Wake up, and everything about where it seemed it'd be before going to sleep. PA is a bit more of a question mark. GA and NC? Look close, but is there enough remaining? MI, WI, AZ go(ing) Biden. The US Senate? WTF?! Susan Collins is going to win? She is carrying Bangor!
And of course, Trump and his syncophant brownshirts want to kill our democracy.
And of course, Trump and his syncophant brownshirts want to kill our democracy.
southernhybrid
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Before we all freak out, remember that a large number of votes that haven't been counted yet in the closest races are mail in ballots, which highly favor Democrats. For example, in Georgia, the that haven't reported all of their votes yet are Dekalb county, metro Atlanta and Albany. These are all extremely Democratic areas, so even in Georgia, there is hope. It's a nail biter, but it still looks better for Biden than it does for Trump at this point. It might be tomorrow before we know the results.
GenesisNemesis
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If Trump didn't want the election to be stolen why didn't he do anything about it? He had 4 years!
barbos
Contributor
Wow, I could not watch this shit and went for a walk. Came back and Biden is ahead in WI and very close in MI 0.5%
I now think Biden is going to win!
I now think Biden is going to win!
Harry Bosch
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Yes, that is good news. But Biden would still need Nevada, and that state is tightening.
dannyk
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Agreed
Elixir
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Jimmy Higgins
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Of course, "winning" is an odd term in US Presidential elections.
Biden has won the majority of the popular vote, but 3 to 4 million.
Biden has likely won the Electoral College with at least 270 electoral votes, and that is without PA. Maine is slow as fuck, so we have no idea on their wooden District EV.
Jimmy Higgins
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Biden won Michigan. The states to be refreshing are PA and GA. Fulton County starts counting again at 8 AM.
barbos
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True, But MI and WI is a done deal for Biden I think. Now he has to win one of the NV,PA,NC,GA.
And PA will be close.
Jimmy Higgins
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So Maine Senate race is tightening up. From what I can tell Lisa Savage, teacher / anti-war activist, votes could head to Gideon with their vote set up. But Gideon needs to pick up votes across the state!