2020 Election Results

[lpetrich]

How Suburbs Decided the 2020 Election for Biden

Most of the red counties have densities of fewer than 500 people per square mile. Most of the purple counties are clustered at densities of between 400 and 1,500 people per square mile. And the blue counties are those above 1,500 people per square mile. While there are notable exceptions to this pattern, the basic trend suggests the dominant role suburban density plays in American political life.

Back to the CPR.

This Democratic headway into fast-growing exurbs represents a serious threat to the GOP grip on these sunbelt states. As Dante Chinni, a political analyst for the Wall Street Journal and NBC and expert on the geographic distribution of the vote, argued in his recent analysis of the 2020 election: "Republican candidates need big margins out of those exurb counties to help offset the Democrats big wins in the urban suburbs and big cities." And, as we've seen in states like Virginia, once these exurbs start to turn blue, they don't turn back. Northern Virginia's Loudoun County flipped red to blue in 2008, with Obama carrying this county by 8 points. In 2020, Biden carried the once rural county by 25 points.

This partisanship by density explains the "sea of red" maps, of Democratic islands surrounded by a sea of Republicans.

 

[ZiprHead]

How Suburbs Decided the 2020 Election for Biden

Most of the red counties have densities of fewer than 500 people per square mile. Most of the purple counties are clustered at densities of between 400 and 1,500 people per square mile. And the blue counties are those above 1,500 people per square mile. While there are notable exceptions to this pattern, the basic trend suggests the dominant role suburban density plays in American political life.

Back to the CPR.

This Democratic headway into fast-growing exurbs represents a serious threat to the GOP grip on these sunbelt states. As Dante Chinni, a political analyst for the Wall Street Journal and NBC and expert on the geographic distribution of the vote, argued in his recent analysis of the 2020 election: "Republican candidates need big margins out of those exurb counties to help offset the Democrats big wins in the urban suburbs and big cities." And, as we've seen in states like Virginia, once these exurbs start to turn blue, they don't turn back. Northern Virginia's Loudoun County flipped red to blue in 2008, with Obama carrying this county by 8 points. In 2020, Biden carried the once rural county by 25 points.

This partisanship by density explains the "sea of red" maps, of Democratic islands surrounded by a sea of Republicans.

That's why I like this map better.

 

[lpetrich]

Which States Have Certified Presidential Vote Totals - The New York Times - Hawaii is finally certified. That gives the Democrats 306 certified electors and the Republicans 232. The electors should vote on Monday, December 14.


After Trump’s Loss in Arizona, State Republicans Hurl Insults at One Another - The New York Times

A top Republican told the governor to “shut the hell up.” Another official described a lawmaker as a resident of “Crazytown.” All this in a state where the party recently reigned supreme.

The Republican speaker of Arizona’s House of Representatives did what he thought was right after Rudolph W. Giuliani rolled through Phoenix for maskless meetings with Republican legislators and then tested positive for the coronavirus: He shut the chamber down for a week in a bid to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

But that move is now adding fuel to the open conflict within Arizona’s Republican Party, positioning Trump loyalists intent on overturning the state’s election results against relatively moderate figures like Rusty Bowers, the House speaker, and Gov. Doug Ducey, both of whom have made it clear the results will stand.

The party this week publicly urged people to fight to the death to overturn the election in which President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. defeated President Trump by fewer than 11,000 votes, about 0.3 percentage points. That entreaty came after 28 current and incoming Republican lawmakers called for the decertification of the election as requested by Mr. Giuliani, the personal and campaign lawyer for Mr. Trump.

Arizona, long a Republican bastion, is becoming a swing state, and the Republicans there aren't taking it very well.

 

[bilby]

They don't need to make it to a judge, much less past one. The existence of a lawsuit is more than enough evidence to persuade the crazies that the election was stolen, and it's the crazies, not the judiciary, who are the intended audience.

I get that. I'm not paying attention to the crazies.

That's not going to prevent them from paying attention to you.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I keep reading people saying the Texas case is a "Hail Mary". But I really feel that Hail Mary seems way too generous. A Hail Mary is a last ditch attempt at a low percentage outcome, but something that happens every once in a while.

The Texas case is more like being down in the 0-2 in the count with 2 outs, down by 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth, no one on base... and bunting to get a grand slam. No doubt a desperation move, but certainly not going to end up with the result you want.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I keep reading people saying the Texas case is a "Hail Mary". But I really feel that Hail Mary seems way too generous. A Hail Mary is a last ditch attempt at a low percentage outcome, but something that happens every once in a while.

The Texas case is more like being down in the 0-2 in the count with 2 outs, down by 4 runs in the bottom of the ninth, no one on base... and bunting to get a grand slam. No doubt a desperation move, but certainly not going to end up with the result you want.

I think that may be too generous a comparison. The contest is over and your team lost by five runs. The lights are out at the stadium, the teams have gone home, the umpires are already asleep and you are still in your seat chanting about how your team was cheated, how the umps were paid off, how the other team all used corked bats, and that the contest is not yet decided.

 

[repoman]

 

[lpetrich]

 2020 United States presidential election - its table of results by state is now complete except for counts of some of the write-in votes.

I checked on whether the Green Party might have been a spoiler for the Democrats. Howie Hawkins's best showing relative to the Democrats' margin of loss was in North Carolina, at 0.22% relative to that margin's 1.35%.

Illinois Rep.-elect Marie Newman rejects socialism tag; tells GOP to 'get over it' | Fox News - "Progressive was backed by AOC to beat conservative Democratic incumbent in the district outside Chicago"
She primaried incumbent Dan Lipinski in IL-03

Newman said the party needs to better highlight how Democrats have a track record of expanding jobs and prosperity. She refers to a Democratic Party chart showing far better job increases, manufacturing growth and GDP gains under modern Democratic presidents compared to GOP presidents.

"That's all we do is jobs, jobs, jobs," Newman said.

"We have always been better at jobs. And we've always been better at the economy. And we're going to keep doing that."

It's good that she's mentioning that remarkable statistic, even if it is disappointing that other Democrats don't advertise it very much.

Endorsements - Marie Newman for Congress - a big range, from establishment to progressive, from EMILY's List to Justice Democrats

"I am super fortunate that all perspectives in the party supported me," Newman said. "[The Democratic Party] embraced me and found something in my platform. And I think it's because I have a very practical approach to all of my policies. And we need that right now. We desperately need someone that is really good at building bridges and building coalitions to get a practical path forward so we get something done."

Newman is a progressive who talks about using a pragmatic approach to implement big changes. She wants to phase in Medicare-for-All in chunks, starting with lowering the eligibility for Medicare to age 55 and laying out a clear timetable so Americans know what to expect. She wants universal child care, paid family leave and a minimum wage of $15 an hour.

"My platform has always been based on making life more affordable for everybody," she said.

She views the Green New Deal as a resolution with good ideas, but prefers President-elect Joe Biden's $2 trillion plan to create green energy jobs because it's a tangible proposal that can be made into law.

"Bernie pushed hard to get Biden to move on a couple of things particularly on the green stimulus package," Newman said. "And look at this package. This is the most progressive green stimulus package we've ever seen out of the Democratic Party. It's very aggressive. He understands we have less than 10 years to solve this problem."

MN calls the controversy about the Democrats' poor showing in Congress a "hearty family discussion." She also said that her fellow Democrats ought to focus more on door-knocking and phonebanking than on fundraising. "It's not all about fundraising," she said. "We need to organize." She rejects all corporate PAC's.

 

[Worldtraveller]

Law Professor: Ken Paxton’s Texas Election Lawsuit Against 4 States ‘Very Unrealistic’

That law suite asks the Supreme Court to order state legislatures in Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania to displace “tainted” election results in those States and choose their own slate of electors.

“Ken Paxton is asking that Republican state legislatures in four states be allowed to displace the will of the voters in those States and choose their own slate of electors, presumably to hand the election to Donald Trump in January,” said Carpenter. “The Supreme Court is not going to allow that to happen.”

Earlier, Paxton said states made unconstitutional changes to their laws before the 2020 election and that skewed the election results for the 2020 General Election.

“The states violated statutes enacted by their duly elected legislatures, thereby violating the Constitution,” said Paxton. “By ignoring both state and federal law, these states have not only tainted the integrity of their own citizens’ vote, but of Texas and every other state that held lawful elections,” Paxton continued.

But Carpenter said he thinks these issues have already been addressed by the states and therefor the State of Texas would not have anything unique to bring to the table.

“The state Attorney General Ken Paxton is essentially trying to litigate — or relitigate — claims that are being heard in various other lawsuits and that have already been heard to some extent, and can be heard in the Supreme Court. So, the Supreme Court doesn’t need to hear this from the State of Texas,” said Carpenter. “The second thing I would say is that state election laws quite commonly grants full discretionary authority to state election commissions to make changes as needed.”

Not to mention that Ken Paxton is under investigation for abuse of office.

This is Paxton's way of asking for a pardon without actually having to say it out loud.

 

[lpetrich]

Marie Newman on Twitter: "Wrapping up the first round of orientation, I am inspired by so many of my future colleagues who are dedicated to improving the lives of their constituents.

Can’t wait to hit the ground running to fight for a just economy, a healthy planet and so much more. See you soon, DC! https://t.co/qd2M0TdYey" / Twitter

MN worked in advertising, but after her son got bullied to where he needed hospitalization, she became an anti-bullying activist.

Newman said it was "horrifying" to see Trump in the White House because he's "the epitome of the ultimate bully."

She's looking forward to a Biden presidency that will stop the hurting, name-calling, fear-mongering and chaos, she said.

"He is a unifier and a healer. And he's a good man," Newman said. "That's what we all need right now."

Georgia Rep.-elect Carolyn Bourdeaux, only Democrat to flip seat, says party should talk to Trump supporters | Fox News - "Georgia professor campaigned on improving health care after her parents lost their savings to fight illness"

She's in GA-07, and Nabilah Islam competed in the primary, though she lost.

 

[lpetrich]

Supreme Court rejects Pennsylvania Republicans' attempt to block election results - CNNPolitics

Arizona Supreme Court rejects effort to overturn results, affirms Biden win

Nevada Supreme Court rejects Trump campaign’s appeal to overturn election results - The Washington Post

Texas AG Paxton’s lawsuit on Trump election results is silly | Fort Worth Star-Telegram

For decades, Republicans have railed against frivolous lawsuits that clog the courts with specious claims, sometimes simply to grab attention or make a political point.

Now, in the increasingly ridiculous tenure of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, such suits are apparently part of the toolkit.

Poll: Only Quarter Of Republicans Accept 2020 Election Results : NPR

With these numbers:

• Overall: 61% - 5% - 34%
• Democrats: 95% - 2% - 3%
• Republicans: 24% - 4% - 72%
• Independents: 67% - 5% - 28%

Some 2/3 of Americans think that he should concede, but only about 1/3 of Republicans.

What a sore loser Trump is.

 

[lpetrich]

Supreme Court Denies GOP Bid To Reject Pennsylvania Election Results : NPR

Biden has 306 electoral votes, Trump 232. I'm surprised that the Republicans have not tried to convince some of Biden's electors to become faithless electors by voting for someone else. Like Bernie Sanders.

The US Supreme Court's response
Its complete text:

(ORDER LIST: 592 U.S.)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2020
ORDER IN PENDING CASE
20 A98 KELLY, MIKE, ET AL. V. PENNSYLVANIA, ET AL.

The application for injunctive relief presented to Justice Alito and by him referred to the Court is denied.

 

[lpetrich]

Trump and 17 states back Texas bid to undo his election loss at Supreme Court

n a separate brief, lawyers for 17 states led by Missouri's Republican Attorney General Eric Schmitt also urged the justices to hear the case.

Election law experts have said the Texas lawsuit stands little chance of success and lacks legal merit.

The lawsuit, the latest in a series of election challenges brought by Trump's campaign and supporters that so far have failed in numerous courts, was brought by Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney general of Texas and an ally of the president.

In addition to Missouri, the states joining Texas were: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia. All of the states were represented by Republican officials in the filing. All but three of the states have Republican governors.

A grove of birch trees.

John Birch trees.

 

[lpetrich]

GOP Texas senator questions 'legal theory' behind Trump's lawsuit to challenge state's election results | TheHill
notes
Manu Raju on Twitter: "Sen. John Cornyn, the senior GOP senator from Texas, ..." / Twitter

Sen. John Cornyn, the senior GOP senator from Texas, is critical of his state’s lawsuit challenging the election results in several battleground states, telling me: "I frankly struggle to understand the legal theory of it.”

“You know, it's very unusual because when a state sues a state, the Supreme Court of the United States has original jurisdiction, so you don't have to go through the ordinary procedure. I read just the summary of it, and I frankly struggle to understand the legal theory of it.”

“Number one, why would a state, even such a great state as Texas, have a say so on how other states administer their elections,” Cornyn said. “We have a diffused and dispersed system and even though we might not like it, they may think it's unfair...

“those are decided at the state and local level and not at the national level. So it's an interesting theory, but I'm not convinced,” he told me

Republicans' devotion to Trump pits them against democracy, history – and reality | Republicans | The Guardian

In that vein, we are witnessing a GOP that has difficulty coming to terms with modernity, the country’s changing demographics, and its own failure to win the popular vote in seven of the last eight elections. Even before Monica Lewinsky, the party faithful questioned Bill Clinton’s legitimacy because he was a child of the 60s.

Similarly, Barack Obama laboured under a racism-fueled cloud of birtherism led by Trump. As for Biden, his disqualifying sin is simply that he is a Democrat.

Indeed, for some on the right politics is about relegating the civil war and its aftermath to the realm of fiction. According to an amicus brief filed by a Wisconsin NAACP affiliate in federal court: “It is no accident that Plaintiff’s focus in this case is on the voters of Milwaukee County, home to Wisconsin’s largest city and Black population.”

True to form, “the Trump Campaign and its allies have singled out alleged ‘corruption’ in other cities with large Black populations.” Against this backdrop, the supreme court’s order is best viewed as merely marking the end of a chapter. America’s underlying tectonics will continue to loudly grind. A Biden presidency should expect no let-up.

 

[lpetrich]

17 states and Trump join Texas' lawsuit. It's still a doomed Supreme Court stunt.

But the claim at the heart of the suit has nothing to do with interstate relations — like a border dispute or litigation over water rights. Nor does it have anything to do with fraud. Rather, Texas is arguing that coronavirus-related changes to election rules in each state violate the federal Constitution, never mind that most states (including Texas) made such changes this cycle.

But hypocrisy aside, the suit is also a perfect microcosm for so many of the other cases we’ve seen filed in the past month: It is lacking in actual evidence; it is deeply cynical; it evinces stunning disrespect for both the role of the courts in our constitutional system and of the states in our elections; and it is doomed to fail.

...
But it’s not enough to explain why this lawsuit is doomed to fail. After all, the goal may not be success, but rather perpetuating the evidenceless narrative that the election was somehow “stolen” from Trump. In that respect, being able to point to irrelevant procedural minutiae as evidence of sympathy for the claim may be victory enough.

...
And in the process, they are showing stunning contempt for the very idea of an independent judiciary — with everyone from the president on down taking the position that, as soon as there are enough Trump-appointed judges on the right court, all of these cases will come out the “right” way, never mind what the law actually has to say about them.

So Trump expects "his" judges to support him no matter what.

 

[lpetrich]

Published last Tuesday, Dec 8:
Jessica Levinson : 'Safe harbor day' highlights Trump's election lawsuit failures — and the judiciary's success - "The judiciary may not act as a guardrail forever and on all issues, but it did on Trump’s post-election litigation."

Why can I be so sure about what will happen next when President Donald Trump and his legal team have cried “fraud” for months? Because the judiciary has done its job. Trump’s post-election litigation strategy had and will continue to fail because the judiciary has held. State court judges and federal judges, Republican judges and Democratic judges have almost, without exception, thrown out or rejected the baseless suits filed by the Trump legal team and its allies. This has been a bad post-election period for Trump and a good month for the rule of law. According to prominent Democratic lawyer Marc Elias, Trump and his allies have won one post-election case, they have lost 49.

About Georgia,
Trump's Georgia rally contrasts with White House stimulus push. Which legacy will win out?

The president seems to want to have it both ways. Trump travelled to Georgia on Saturday for a rally to support both Republican Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, but he has also heaped scorn on Gov. Brian Kemp and insisted that he should “call off the election.” Georgia Republicans who spoke with Politico fear the president’s endorsements will be overshadowed if “all he does is whine and complain and talk bad about Kemp,” as they should be.

He does not seem like a very careful thinker.

 

[lpetrich]

Ryan Burge on Twitter: "Huge h/t to @b_schaffner ...

Huge h/t to @b_schaffner, we can do some CCES
comparisons.

For Trump (2016 vs 2020) - white only:
Evangelical: 77% -> 75%
Mainline: 55% -> 51%
Catholic: 57% -> 57%
Jews: 29% ->26%
Atheist: 15% -> 10%
Agnostic: 25% -> 18%
Nothing in particular: 46% ->39%

All races for Trump (2016 vs 2020)
Evangelical: 67% -> 67%
Mainline: 52% - 47%
Catholic: 49% -> 51%
Atheist: 14% -> 10%
Agnostic: 23% -> 16%
Nothing in particular: 38% -> 33%.

A five point shift for mainlines, but really big shifts for agnostics and nothing in particulars.

The Nones may be the Reason that Joe Biden is the President Elect – Religion in Public
noting
The Nones in 2020 - Google Slides

 

[Jarhyn]

He does not seem like a very careful thinker.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Angry Floof]

I can't express enough just how much I'm looking forward to the time when Trump no longer has any power over the GOP. Those people, no matter how cowardly or complicit they have been, are going to be writing books and doing interviews like crazy.

We've been watching a spectacular pageant of sycophancy and groveling for years, and Perdue's "speech" at Trump's rally the other night is no exception. You have to wonder what that feels like to have something to say but being drowned out by chanting cultists to the point where you just give up on what you were gonna say and just join in the worship. A lot of ideological scumbags are going to profit big from their stories once they feel safe to tell them.

 

[Worldtraveller]

I can't express enough just how much I'm looking forward to the time when Trump no longer has any power over the GOP. Those people, no matter how cowardly or complicit they have been, are going to be writing books and doing interviews like crazy.

We've been watching a spectacular pageant of sycophancy and groveling for years, and Perdue's "speech" at Trump's rally the other night is no exception. You have to wonder what that feels like to have something to say but being drowned out by chanting cultists to the point where you just give up on what you were gonna say and just join in the worship. A lot of ideological scumbags are going to profit big from their stories once they feel safe to tell them.

I wish I shared your optimism. While I don't think trump has direct access to it, I would bet that the russian intelligence system has dirt on many of the GOP reps/senators. It's been revealed at this point that they know and were told to back trump.

Where that goes from here, though, I can't predict. I think putin will continue to try to destabilize the US through the GOP and their mouthbreathing knuckledragging minions.