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2020 Election Results

Biden leads in PA !
by 5587 votes.

We were talking about this yesterday, how sooooooooooo many of us voted early by mail, mostly democrats who were affected by Covid-19 concerns. It's showing! And it's so easy to check to make sure your ballot was counted. If it wasn't you can respond.

This represents a tiny bit of sophistication in voting but Trumpsters typically aren't so motivated to do this.
 
W00t!

It was inevitable, but you still need to pass the threshold. Need what, 50,000 vote lead to call it?

Also, I believe Georgia is now reporting at 100% for Absentee Ballots. Now, they move onto provisional ballots and the deadline is today for overseas ballots arriving. WWSB has the lead at 1,097. I have no idea if provisional ballots will sway in any direction or how many there even are. Or how many overseas and military ballots.

I suppose Trump could still win Georgia by over 10,000 if there are enough of all of these.
 
Biden is so close to victory he can smell its hair. /colbert

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1324574406727925761?s=20[/TWEET]

The freak Kornacki is still on air, been at it all night till now.
 
Biden is now ahead in Georgia by 1,097 votes, or 0.022% of the vote.

Vote counters continued to work overnight in Clayton County, just south of Atlanta, and they should be finishing up this morning in Gwinnett County just northeast of Atlanta. That county is likely to deliver more votes to Biden. The final margin will likely be less than GA's threshold for a recount: 0.5%.

They just reported a count of some 30,000 votes in Pennsylvania. Biden is now ahead by 5,587 votes or 0.084%. The remaining votes are areas that are likely to have large fractions of votes for Biden, and he might end up a few percent ahead.

If Biden's lead in PA holds up, then he will win the electoral vote even if he loses GA, AZ, and NV. If it holds up in GA but not PA, then he will need one of AZ and NV to win.

Leader McConnell on Twitter: "Here’s how this must work in our great country: Every legal vote should be counted. Any illegally-submitted ballots must not. All sides must get to observe the process. And the courts are here to apply the laws & resolve disputes.

That's how Americans' votes decide the result." / Twitter

However, MMC did not repeat Trump's conspiracy theories of massive fraud. Compared to Trump, he is a model of sanity, sobriety, and responsibility.
 
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "People need to really look at the communities who delivered these miraculous victories in AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc. ..." / Twitter
People need to really look at the communities who delivered these miraculous victories in AZ, GA, MI, MN, etc. They are rarely a focus of traditional political investment or electoral strategy,& are often sacrificed in policy negotiations.

One “thank you” would be changing that.

What they have done - from @staceyabrams & @fairfightaction to @ConMijente and the whole underrecognized legion of organizers- is nothing short of remarkable. Give them their flowers 💐
That's Stacey Abrams. Despite losing by a hair in the Georgia Governor race, she has continued to be an activist.

I like this response:
™️➐ on Twitter: "@AOC
TRUMP WOKE UP FEELING DANGEROUS 😈😳😪
0 States won 😭😭😭😭😭😭
0 Solutions created 😬😬😬😬😬
0 successful bribes 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
14x Lawsuits Flushed 🥵🥵🥵🥵
300k spent on haircuts 😩😩😩
1 claim that it was rigged😾😾😾
" / Twitter
 
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "There are folks running around on TV blaming progressivism for Dem underperformance. ..." / Twitter
There are folks running around on TV blaming progressivism for Dem underperformance. I was curious, so I decided to open the hood on struggling campaigns of candidates who are blaming progressives for their problems. Almost all had awful execution on digital. DURING A PANDEMIC.

Underinvestment across the board. Some campaigns spent $0 on digital the week before the election. Others who spent did so in very poor ways. If I spent only $12k on TV the week before an election & then blamed others after, you’d ask questions. That’s how it looks seeing this.

Ideology + messaging are the spicy convos a lot of people jump to but sometimes it’s about execution and technical capacity. Digital execution was not good, polls were off, ironically DCCC banned the firms who are the best in the country at Facebook bc they work w progressives! Also, the decision to stop knocking doors is one people need to grapple with and analyze.

@IlhanMN and @RashidaTlaib never stopped and may very well have helped delivered a Biden Presidency bc of it

There are swing seat Dem incumbents who cosponsored the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, etc and if I’m not mistaken every single one won re-election. So the whole “progressivism is bad” argument just doesn’t have any compelling evidence that I’ve seen.

When it comes to “Defund” & “Socialism” attacks, people need to realize these are racial resentment attacks. You’re not gonna make that go away. You can make it less effective. How do you make it less effective? Invest in year-round deep canvassing. Data shows that this kind of work helps blunt the force of racial resentment at the polls. If you’re always running away from convos about race, then the only ppl owning it are GOP. You’ll lose. And on this hand-wringing about slight POC increases for GOP in some areas - this is also an area w answers. But honestly when it comes to Latinos the party’s just never seriously made an effort. Mexicans, Central Am, Caribbean, Chicanos - Cubans are not the only impt community.

By the way if white communities are getting more comfortable w overt racism or “cultural resentment” (if that’s what they’re rebranding it now) it’s only gonna get harder for POC turnout to save everyone. Real organizing & strategy is needed that disarms bigotry, not avoids it.

You can’t just tell the Black, Brown, & youth organizers riding in to save us every election to be quiet or not have their reps champion them when they need us. Or wonder why they don’t show up for midterms when they’re scolded for existing. Esp when they’re delivering victories.

And btw I’m happy to cede ground on things that aren’t working in some areas! But finger pointing is not gonna help. There’s real workable & productive paths here if the party is open to us. (After all, I got here by beating a Dem who outspent me 10-1 who I knew had bad polling)
(several tweets edited by me to make paragraphs)
 
Biden is so close to victory he can smell its hair. /colbert

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1324574406727925761?s=20[/TWEET]

The freak Kornacki is still on air, been at it all night till now.

Mrs. Elixir calls him "Cracky". Says he never changes his pants. I think she's right on both counts.
 
Aren't provisional ballots normally not included in many state's votes?

Unless they could make a difference, yes, this is true. Not actually counting them when things are this close, however, would mean that they never were "provisional" in the first place; it would mean that they are make-believe fake ballots, if there were no situation for them to be counted.

Provisional ballots are normally included in a state vote count specifically when the race is close.

It comes down to game theory: provisional ballots are ALWAYS supposed to be counted when the difference between the candidates does not exceed the sum of provisional ballots. If it does by any appreciable margin, counting them is absolutely pointless; they can't actually impact the election so it isn't worth wasting the time.

What "usually" happens is people "follow the rules for when to count ballots".
 
From the NYT:
Nick Corasaniti, in Philadelphia

The votes being counted in Pennsylvania do not include any mail ballots arriving after Nov. 3. Those are being kept segregated. This count is for votes in by Election Day.

Biden gained 27,396 votes in the latest update from Philadelphia, and Trump 3,760, putting Biden in the lead. There are still roughly 20,000 ballots to count in the city

There are 130,000 ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, many from Democratic-leaning areas. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has at least 37,000, and the Philadelphia suburbs have about 20,000.

ven the recent tallies of mail ballots from red counties in Pennsylvania have favored Biden, since many Democrats voted by mail. He netted 2,500 votes from Mercer County last night.
That means 77,000 likely Dem-leaning ones and 53,000 others. If the others are Rep-leaning, then there will likely be a difference of 24,000 ballots. That would give Biden a roughly 0.2% lead. But if they are all mostly Dems, then that means a lead of 1.6%

The late arrivals are being kept separate because they have been the subject of litigation. But it looks like Biden will win PA without them, and given how mail-in ballots have favored Dems, they would only help Biden.
 
GOP looking to steal the election? They've been sending signals of this for a couple days now. Sen. Graham suggests Republican Legislature in PA sending Republican elector slate should be on the table... over concerns regarding the election that are utterly false.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/user/status/1324545135015809026[/TWEET]
 
One would hope that the close race in GA and the loss of Arizona would shock the GOP closer to sanity.
 
From the NYT:
Nick Corasaniti, in Philadelphia

The votes being counted in Pennsylvania do not include any mail ballots arriving after Nov. 3. Those are being kept segregated. This count is for votes in by Election Day.

Biden gained 27,396 votes in the latest update from Philadelphia, and Trump 3,760, putting Biden in the lead. There are still roughly 20,000 ballots to count in the city

There are 130,000 ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, many from Democratic-leaning areas. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has at least 37,000, and the Philadelphia suburbs have about 20,000.

ven the recent tallies of mail ballots from red counties in Pennsylvania have favored Biden, since many Democrats voted by mail. He netted 2,500 votes from Mercer County last night.
That means 77,000 likely Dem-leaning ones and 53,000 others. If the others are Rep-leaning, then there will likely be a difference of 24,000 ballots. That would give Biden a roughly 0.2% lead. But if they are all mostly Dems, then that means a lead of 1.6%
As the article noted, red Mercer County net'd Biden votes. 77,000 votes will net Biden around 40% of that count (70 to 30). The other counties, Trump likely can't break 55 to 45 for a 10% gain. So math leads up to no fewer than 35,000 net votes for Biden. But it could very well average 70% across the board like it has since Wednesday. In fact, it increased to 75% yesterday, which would mean about 80k net.
 
I know that you Americans still have to tolerate another couple of months of this shitshow, but I'm looking forward to Inauguration Day.

Whether Trump decides to show up or not, there will be schadenfreude.
 
Nebraskan Sandernista 🌹 on Twitter: "@AnnAnnChe @jlrindahl @AOC Lauren Underwood isn’t a progressive.

She was a fauxgressive, just like Kamala Harris. She didn’t support M4A or GND. Stop lying." / Twitter


Logan 'Fall Out Boy' Sigler on Twitter: "@Jennifro1 @AOC @RepKatiePorter lives in a deep red district yet cruises to re-election every time running on m4a and a Green New Deal. Not to mention this. So maybe stop trying to silence progressive latino women? https://t.co/EX9W3Ew3tV" / Twitter

Theresa Kump Leghorn on Twitter: "@AOC @IlhanMN @RashidaTlaib Also, "defund the police" is catchy but misleading and scares people. Also gives GOP a way to frame Dems negatively. We need another way to say "reallocate budgets to prioritize community centered policing."" / Twitter
I agree.


RBG_IS_QUEEN on Twitter: "@AOC Katie Porter is a great example of how to run as a no BS progressive in a conservative district. The Democratic Party needs to take its cues from her. I genuinely think her consistency likes her because they know she will fight for them. Moderates don’t do that." / Twitter

KBB on Twitter: "@powerto48130156 @AOC She also knows how to destroy people with a whiteboard unlike anyone else to walk this earth @RepKatiePorter" / Twitter


Jack Marchese on Twitter: "@AOC I do think normies are scared by “defund the police” but I also didn’t see moderates actually try and co-opt and improve the phrasing either. That’s on them." / Twitter

Matt Plotner 🦃 Voted 🗳️ on Twitter: "@MarcheseJack @AOC The marketing of the phrase "defund the police" was a terrible idea. Idk who's idea it was to push that but it should been reform the police or something like that. Defund leads people to believe we want to abolish the police which is not what the phrase means (at least most)." / Twitter
 
I know that you Americans still have to tolerate another couple of months of this shitshow, but I'm looking forward to Inauguration Day.

Whether Trump decides to show up or not, there will be schadenfreude.
America doesn't like making it easy. After this vote is certified, that just sets up the Electoral College vote, which apparently isn't set in stone according to Sen. Graham.
 
GOP looking to steal the election? They've been sending signals of this for a couple days now. Sen. Graham suggests Republican Legislature in PA sending Republican elector slate should be on the table... over concerns regarding the election that are utterly false.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/user/status/1324545135015809026[/TWEET]

Jeezus, do they realize what the American people would do if the try to pull these kinds of shenanigans? There's no wall around the senate.
 
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