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2022 Midterm Elections - Results and Post Mortem

The interview continued in
AOC on Political Mistakes and the Left’s Growing Pains - "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on political mistakes, the discourse, and the left’s growing pains."
At the start of her career, Twitter was a place where Ocasio-Cortez could be seen to be leading an army of supporters, but often today it seems more like she’s fighting off an army of critics from the left. Others in the progressive ecosystem who still support Ocasio-Cortez complain that she isn’t invested heavily enough in building infrastructure or supporting candidates early enough for it to matter.
Interviewer Ryan Grim then mentioned how big-money groups and their candidates seem well-coordinated, but that progressives are often less coordinated, like sometimes endorsing candidates late in their campaigns.

Sometimes even endorsing different candidates in the same race, I must note. Sometimes producing devastating vote splitting, like in NY-10 earlier this year.
Well, I think some of it just has to do with resources. I think the ability to do that with big money is very different than the ability to do that with not big money. But I also think that the left in this country, like we’ve just been in this — in a big way — for just a couple of years. And so I think that the left is really going through a lot of growth. And I do think that, and I hope that over time, this degree of collaboration gets even better and gets even stronger.
After noting some successes by the Working Families Party, like electing 17 candidates to the New York City Council, and supporting Kathy Hochul for Governor, she concedes that one must learn from experience. I agree on that part, learning from what works and what doesn't work.
But I do think that we’re growing, and I do think that the left is growing and maturing. I think that for a very long time, the left of the United States, until very, very recently, is not used to power, not used to being in power, not used to wielding power. And I think sometimes the immediate reaction to making gains is being suspicious of it, because then you can, after so long in the wilderness, eventually — I think sometimes people make the mistake of associating losing with virtue, and winning with a lack of virtue, like you must have done something wrong. And I think that we’re starting to shake that a little bit as a movement and learning to wield some of these wins, especially as we’ve made gains in the last two cycles.
From her, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, and Ayanna Pressley in 2018, adding Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush in 2020, and now Greg Casar, Summer Lee, and Delia Ramirez. Pity that Marie Newman lost, though at least she lost to a middle-of-the-road Democrat and not a very conservative one like Dan Lipinski.
 
Then about wielding power,
If someone makes a mistake, it’s not the same thing as someone selling out. There needs to be a differentiation between an individual decision and a record and a pattern.
AOC seems very thoughtful.

Then she was interviewed in the New York Times.
Ocasio-Cortez: ‘Calcified’ Machine Politics Cost Democrats in New York - The New York Times
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said Democrats should not have adopted “Republican narratives on crime and safety,” and need to abandon “pure moderate” approaches.
As to why Democrats did so poorly,
It’s no secret that an enormous amount of party leadership in New York State is based on big money and old-school, calcified machine-style politics that creates a very anemic voting base that is disengaged and disenfranchised.
Then she criticized Democrats for imitating the Republicans too much about crime and public safety. She praised Gov. Hochul for doing otherwise, like bringing up the proliferation of guns and gun safety, but she said that campaigning is a "team sport".
Not once has the New York State Democratic chair ever called me. All he has done is antagonize myself and any progressive candidates. We need to get together as a team. This idea of pure moderate politics that seeks to defeat both a progressive grass roots and a Republican Party at the same time very often isolates itself and makes itself smaller.
Clintonite "Third Way" centrism. But she says that the NY State Gov't can be different.
We can be a state like California that puts things like public banking on the ballot. We have bills in the State Legislature right now like the Build Public Renewables Act that is profoundly motivating.
"New York politics especially in New York City is going through a very strong generational upheaval." then "We should rebuild the New York State Democratic Party and if that is a structure that refuses to be reformed, we rebuild and replace."
 
There are two possibilities:

1: This is all Biden's fault
2: Something is going on that's not within Biden's direct control.

When you put it like that, sheesh - of COURSE it's all Biden's fault! He heads up the GLOBAL conspiracy committee that controls GLOBAL inflation.
Oh please. That’s ridiculous. Biden’s not Jewish.
 
Alessandra Biaggi on Twitter: "If you are a Democrat anywhere in America who is frustrated that we’ll lose the House by so few seats:
NY House losses were the reason & the man who theoretically could have averted this is named Jay Jacobs.
And now we’re going to have him replaced, for proper accountability." / Twitter

That's one reason. Also not going to bat for JMLS in OR-05.


Sean Patrick Maloney on His Loss, the Media and A.O.C. - The New York Times - "Mr. Maloney said that he and other New York Democrats were unable to overcome suburban fears of crime. He also had some harsh words for Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez."

He was the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and he ought to have been an expert on campaigning. Though he defeated challenger Alessandra Biaggi 70.0% - 29.7% in the primary, he lost, 49.4% - 50.6% in the general election.

Why so poorly?
I don’t know the answer to that question. But look, voters in New York have been told by the News Corporation machine, principally The New York Post, that crime is the No. 1 issue. In the suburbs, it certainly had an effect. In my own race, of course, $10 million was spent echoing those themes. But it may not just be that. I don’t know.
Then on AOC:
The last time I ran into A.O.C., we were beating her endorsed candidate two to one in a primary, and I didn’t see her one minute of these midterms helping our House majority. So, I’m not sure what kind of advice she has, but I’m sure she’ll be generous with it.
But if she stumps for other candidates, she neglects her district, right? That aside, she did go to California and stump for Katie Porter. Who, happy to say, squeaked through.
 
Sean Patrick Maloney: how the DCCC chair bungled his own New York race.
In many states, House Democratic candidates are doing much better than expected—a turn of events that Maloney can share credit for as DCCC chair.

But in his home state of New York, four House seats were ceded to Republicans, including Maloney’s. He lost to Republican Mike Lawler in a district that in 2020 Biden carried by more than 10 points. Of the races that have been called, only Long Island Democrat Laura Gillen managed to lose in a more Biden-friendly district; she, unlike Maloney, is not a sitting member of Congress.
SBF was the first DCCC head to lose an election in over 40 years.

His idea of campaigning:
In the weeks before Election Day, Maloney set off on a Europe trip, where he hung out on a balcony overlooking the Seine, and turned up in London, Paris, and Geneva, often alongside congressman Adam Schiff, for gatherings billed as DCCC fundraising events. (The DCCC said in a statement that its total efforts in Europe, of which Maloney’s trip was part, raised $1 million.)

Prior to that October sojourn, Maloney’s 7,000-square-foot Cold Spring estate, the residence that was just barely drawn into the 17th Congressional District earlier this year, was listed as a vacation rental on Expedia with the disclaimer “Minimum 2 month rental from July 1–August 31.” (The Maloney campaign said the house was not rented and that the listing was a “ghost post” left over from a previous time.)
The Republicans were pumping $10 million into his opponent Mike Lawler's campaign, and SPM ended up taking money from others' campaigns for his campaign, like for OR-05.
Snubbing the Grassroots

In a midterm election where a major enthusiasm gap (and low approval ratings for the president) looked likely to benefit Republicans, the support of grassroots groups was important for Democrats to gin up voter turnout.

This would have been especially true for Maloney, given the demands of his DCCC post.

But according to conversations with many local grassroots organizations, Maloney made no effort to secure their support.
The Working Families Party helped Kathy Hochul win, and also endorsed SPM, but SPM's campaign did not coordinate with the WFP. He also did not coordinate with another such group, Indivisible.

What a flub.
 
Then about SPM moving from NY-18 to NY-17 after redistricting, and Mondaire Jones fleeing to NY-10 and placing 3rd there.

"Then, Maloney had a bruising primary against a well-liked state senator, Alessandra Biaggi. He won by a comfortable margin, but the race proved surprisingly bitter and, for some, made the bad taste from the Jones saga linger."

Snubbing His New District

Maloney’s primary was a harbinger of his coming troubles. To beat Biaggi, a progressive, he accepted nearly half a million dollars in support from the Police Benevolent Association, the New York City police union, which put that money toward vicious attack ads that denounced the state senator as “a radical anti-police extremist” who “voted to release criminals without bail.” In the general, Lawler attacked Maloney using a similar tactic, portraying him as soft on crime.

But Maloney should have been worried about a larger hurdle to winning over his new district. Campaign strategists repeatedly mentioned that Maloney’s treatment of Jones—who grew up in the district that Maloney pushed him out of—was a serious issue for potential voters they talked to. “I was surprised at just how much people brought that up canvassing in the general,” said Wisner, of the Rockland County WFP. “Lower voter information folks, average voters, even they were kind of disgusted.”

She said that when activists were door-knocking, “people would say, ‘Isn’t he the guy that pushed Mondaire out of this district?’ Folks had a really tough time getting past that. And he didn’t do much work past saying, ‘Well, I live here.’ ”
Some local environmentalists didn't like SPM. They were at loggerheads with him about a natural-gas powerplant expansion; he supported it and they opposed it.
Next door, in the neighboring 18th District that Maloney vacated, the Democrat ran successfully on environmental issues, one of the few congressional victory stories for New York Democrats in the midterms. “The district Maloney was scared to run in was won by Rep. Pat Ryan, who has a sterling environmental record,” Beauchamp said. “It’s remarkable that that was a winning campaign right issue next door, in mostly his old district.”

...
But the fact remains that the DCCC chair didn’t cultivate support in his own district and was forced, at the end of his campaign, to absorb millions of dollars of limited Democratic campaign money that could have gone elsewhere. His loss not only cost Democrats the eminently winnable 17th District—it almost cost them the district he vacated as well. Will it now cost them the House?
It did.
 
A Controversial Decision in Oregon Could Cost Democrats the House - "Progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner trails by 2 points in a race the national Democratic super PACs preemptively deemed unwinnable. She’s not the only one."
She ran in OR-05, and she lost that race by that margin.

Describing the Democratic leadership's unwillingness to support her candidacy in OR-05, especially after she defeated Blue Dog Kurt Schrader, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.
Schrader had been a member of the so-called Unbreakable Nine who organized against President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better agenda, and said in a private call with the dark-money sponsors of their operation, No Labels, that he hoped to kill it. National progressive groups as well as most of the local Democratic Party operations rallied behind McLeod-Skinner to knock out Schrader in May.

...
“While they pumped last-minute money into the DCCC chair’s losing race in New York,” Indivisible national political director Dani Negrete told The Intercept, “Jamie has been holding on entirely based on her strength as a candidate and her grassroots support.”
It wasn't enough to win the general election, even though she won the primary by 14%.
The party’s underinvestment in McLeod-Skinner is reminiscent of Democrats’ decision to abandon progressive nominee Kara Eastman during her 2018 run against Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon. After Eastman won a stunning upset against the national party’s handpicked nominee, former representative Brad Ashford, Democrats’ national committees declined to spend significant money to help her in the general election, which she lost by just under 5,000 votes.
She ran again in 2020, and the party supported her, but that wasn't enough.
 
Elected Democrats have heaped praise on outgoing DCCC Chair Maloney for the unexpectedly strong performance despite the steep losses the party suffered in Maloney’s own backyard. In a twist, the loss of Maloney’s own seat, in the suburban 17th District in New York, is being heralded as an act of self-sacrifice rather than evidence of a severe lapse in judgment.
Sarah Ferris on Twitter: "Pelosi speaking on DCCC call to members now, minutes after chair Sean Patrick Maloney concedes his own race.
"Our chairman took an arrow for us," Pelosi told members, per source. She called it as "a Pyrrhic victory." / Twitter

and
Seth Moulton on Twitter: "Our DCCC Chairman put himself at risk to support other congressional Democrats. Service before self— that’s leadership. Mark me first on the list of @spmaloney fans.
Thank you, Sean, for a decade of service and two years in the political trenches." / Twitter

Several of the Democratic seats that Republicans managed to pick up — including the Long Island-based 3rd and 4th districts, which Biden won by 8 and 15 points respectively — saw less than $3 million in investments by the DCCC and House Majority PAC. Those figures greatly lag the over $4 million in spending Maloney was able to marshal from new outside PACs in his ill-fated quest to hold a seat Biden won by over 10 points, according to a DailyKos calculation. In Long Island, Democrats were also hurt by the retirement of Rep. Tom Suozzi, and the redistricting process ordered by the Court of Appeals, which pushed the primary back to September, giving Democrats only two months to campaign for the general election.
 
Some races in California, where key elections hang in the balance, also saw Democrats outspent. In two particularly glaring examples, the party’s national committees invested a measly $23,000 in Christy Smith and an underwhelming $204,000 in Jay Chen: two Democratic nominees who challenged Republican incumbents in Democratic-leaning districts.

Smith said she has a “very narrow” path remaining, as ballots continued to be counted, but had no kind words for Washington Democrats. “They did more than give up on me,” she said, noting that the DCCC recruited a candidate to run against her in the primary, despite her having lost in 2020 by fewer than 350 votes. With the party machinery behind John Quaye Quartey, Smith’s fundraising capacity was suppressed, and she blew through her million dollars to win the primary, entering the general broke. The national party’s preferred candidate won just 4,037 votes in the primary. “That was also a waste of the $1 million in donor money he raised to get a single digit result. Two million dollars in Dem donor money wasted on a primary that they created,” Smith said. After that, the party walked away from the race.
Christy Smith - Ballotpedia
  • Primary: Mike Garcia (R) 49.6%, Christy Smith (D) 35.4%, John Quaye Quartey (D) 5.9%, Ruth Luevanos (D) 5.3%, two others (both R) 2.5%, 1.3%
  • General: Mike Garcia (R) 54.2%, Christy Smith (D) 45.8%
Seems like the Democratic leadership was irked at CS winning there also.

Julia Rosen (mastadon: union.place/@juliarosen) on Twitter: "You should read this whole thread from @ChristySmithCA. She talks about how badly we got outspent in a tight race.
This is how bad. (pic link)" / Twitter

then
Christy Smith on Twitter: "I’m going to start this very long 🧵 by saying how absolutely thrilled I am that we’ve held the Senate and a House hold is still likely. Grateful to every American voter who leaned into the responsibility to protect our democracy and freedom! 1/" / Twitter
stating in the long Twitter thread that
"I’ve been massively outspent here for a few cycles now."


And in neighboring Arizona, Democrat Kirsten Engel is defying expectations in her bid for the Tucson-based 6th Congressional District after receiving just over $70,000 in support from Democrats’ national committees — a paltry sum against an opponent who received nearly $5 million in support from equivalent Republican groups.
What happened there? Was it the Democratic leadership being irked yet again? Or simple neglect?
 
Edward-Isaac Dovere on Twitter: ".@RepSeanMaloney on soon to be former colleague @AOC:
“The last time I ran into A.O.C., we were beating her endorsed candidate two to one in a primary, and I didn’t see her one minute of these midterms helping our House majority.” (link)" / Twitter

noting
Sean Patrick Maloney on His Loss, the Media and A.O.C. - The New York Times
AOC had a lot to say about that.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Let’s make something crystal clear: ..." / Twitter
Let’s make something crystal clear:
- SPM courted me for donations to swing races & it was the 1st thing I did this term. Over a quarter million for Dems this cycle, DCCC facilitated some & now he denies it.
- If he isn’t aware of my visit to CA & efforts we put in, that’s on him

- Because of Dem party abandonment in key areas, statewide victories depended HEAVILY on driving up numbers in progressive areas like mine & @nywfp

- To our knowledge, I was the only NYC House Dem in a safe seat to run a full-throated heavy field operation for GOTV

What I love about his claim that we gave frontline members “donations they didn’t want”:

a) the VAST majority were good w/ early financial support to position themselves early

b) for the few who didn’t want our help + got it, where do you think we got the $ info to give? DCCC!

As for him “not seeing me” - perhaps it’s because he as a party leader chose not to see nor value prominent members of his party for years.

Either way, we will continue to organize & turn out undervalued + unseen communities in this country - whether the powerful like it or not.

Lastly, many moderate dems + leaders made it very clear that our help was not welcome nor wanted. Despite our many, many offers. Yet found ways to try to help from afar. So for them to blame us for respecting their approach in their districts is laughable.

Take some ownership.

Yet we*
I remember when AOC donated some money to D's in vulnerable seats, and many of them returning that money. Almost as if her contributions were bribes that they didn't want to take.

Jen Perelman on Twitter: "@AOC They want your money, not your policy. Don’t hold back Alex, corporate Dems need to go into the dustbin of history. @AOC" / Twitter
But AOC wanted them in Congress because they are better than Republicans.

Blue Bee on Twitter: "@AOC Is this really the thing on the top of mind for Sean Patrick Maloney right now? Some inconsequential petty insults to hurt colleagues, while he went down in ignominy that everyone recognizes was due to his own hubris. Oh, I need to go on the record to attack AOC? Good riddance." / Twitter

Judy Mahoney Mastodon: Momster_of_2@home.social on Twitter: "@AOC I’m in NY 17. …" / Twitter
’m in NY 17. When Mondaire ran, I bumped into him 3 times during the campaign season at every day events. He spent some time greeting and chatting with me. I never saw SPM in our district, never spoke with him, never heard of any events he attended. He got my vote but hard to get excited about him as a candidate if he isn’t getting to know his constituents. Also he was not my primary choice but he sure spent a lot of money bashing my choice in the primary. Again hard to get excited about that candidate
Yet another corporate Democrat who neglected his district. Just like Joe Crowley and Eliot Engel.

Anthony on Twitter: "@Momster_of_2 @AOC I saw him once and he looked wiped, almost bored or exhausted. He just seemed over it." / Twitter
 
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "According to our digital team: ..." / Twitter
According to our digital team:

This cycle alone, @TeamAOC raised online:
Candidates: $553,644.81
Grassroots organizations: $839,989.50
Charity + mutual aid: $6,363,615.20

All time, raised online:
Candidates: $2,201,483.48
Organizations: $3,049,161.41
Charities: $6,363,615.20

And this is largely our email campaign figures. Doesn’t include other potential streams as well.
Brett "Solidarity 2022" Banditelli on Twitter: "@AOC @TeamAOC And Sean Patrick Maloney raised the white flag. Same thing, right?" / Twitter


Deconstructed Podcast: AOC and Mo Mitchell on the Midterms
"On Tuesday, Democrats miraculously avoided the sort of major rout at the polls normally associated with a new president’s first midterms."
Has transcripts of their interviews.
 
Peltola won the AK seat, 55% to 45% for Palin after final round. The House is now 220 R to 213 D with 2 races left to call, but Rs are ahead and should win those.
 
Peltola won the AK seat, 55% to 45% for Palin after final round.
Interestingly, it wasn't even that close. Previously it was speculated that republicans could've won if they had switched to Begich instead of Palin, but even with their combined vote it would've been 50-50 (and in reality a sizeable number of Palin voters would not have put Begich as their second choice).

Is this a victory for IRV? Or are Alaska republicans going to blame the voting system for their loss and try to dismantle it?
 
Peltola won the AK seat, 55% to 45% for Palin after final round.
Interestingly, it wasn't even that close. Previously it was speculated that republicans could've won if they had switched to Begich instead of Palin, but even with their combined vote it would've been 50-50 (and in reality a sizeable number of Palin voters would not have put Begich as their second choice).

Is this a victory for IRV? Or are Alaska republicans going to blame the voting system for their loss and try to dismantle it?
Porque no los dos?
 
Peltola won the AK seat, 55% to 45% for Palin after final round.
Interestingly, it wasn't even that close. Previously it was speculated that republicans could've won if they had switched to Begich instead of Palin, but even with their combined vote it would've been 50-50 (and in reality a sizeable number of Palin voters would not have put Begich as their second choice).

Is this a victory for IRV? Or are Alaska republicans going to blame the voting system for their loss and try to dismantle it?
Porque no los dos?
I think a victory for the system is something that keeps it going. A democrat winning might be seen as a political victory for dems and proof that this is a conspiracy to disenfranchise the voters. From that point of view maybe Begich winning might have been better for the longevity of IRV in Alaska and hopefully its proliferation elsewhere.

Peltola would've won even if it weren't for IRV.
 
Then about SPM moving from NY-18 to NY-17 after redistricting, and Mondaire Jones fleeing to NY-10 and placing 3rd there.
Not this shit again! SPM did not "move". The district boundaries did, as they do every decade due to redistricting. The old 18th district is no more. Nobody should have to run in a district just because it shares a number with the previous one.
Mondaire Jones should have ran in his home district, which is NY-16, against Jamaal "Defund the Police" Bowman.
"Then, Maloney had a bruising primary against a well-liked state senator, Alessandra Biaggi. He won by a comfortable margin, but the race proved surprisingly bitter and, for some, made the bad taste from the Jones saga linger."
Lawler should send Biaggi a nice box of chocolates as a thank you.

denounced the state senator [Alessandra Biaggi] as “a radical anti-police extremist” who “voted to release criminals without bail.”
Well, she is and she did.

But Maloney should have been worried about a larger hurdle to winning over his new district. Campaign strategists repeatedly mentioned that Maloney’s treatment of Jones—who grew up in the district that Maloney pushed him out of—was a serious issue for potential voters they talked to.
What was that bad about SPM's treatment of Jones? Why should SPM retreat to a district he has no ties with (except sharing the number with a previous district) merely to have Jones run without opposition?
She said that when activists were door-knocking, “people would say, ‘Isn’t he the guy that pushed Mondaire out of this district?’ Folks had a really tough time getting past that. And he didn’t do much work past saying, ‘Well, I live here.’ ”
Low information voters do not understand how redistricting works. It wasn't SPM who pushed MJ out of the district. MJ had the chance to run in the district he lived in (NY-16) which I think would have been ideal. He even could have ran against SPM in the 17th. Nobody forced him into the 10th, least of all SPM.


Some local environmentalists didn't like SPM. They were at loggerheads with him about a natural-gas powerplant expansion; he supported it and they opposed it.
People need energy. Natural gas is relatively clean and plentiful in the US.
Ecomentalists can be stupid.

Next door, in the neighboring 18th District that Maloney vacated,
No, he did not. He vacated old 18th. Old 18th wasn't a factor in the 2022 elections. 2022 elections were in the new 18th, with very different territory and people. A lot of the old 18th is in the new 17th.

the Democrat ran successfully on environmental issues, one of the few congressional victory stories for New York Democrats in the midterms. “The district Maloney was scared to run in was won by Rep. Pat Ryan, who has a sterling environmental record,” Beauchamp said. “It’s remarkable that that was a winning campaign right issue next door, in mostly his old district.”
Is he against powerplants?

it almost cost them the district he vacated as well.
Some political writers do not understand how redistricting works either.
 
Clintonite "Third Way" centrism. But she says that the NY State Gov't can be different.
Third Way centrism was very successful in its day.
NY Dems would be well advised to adopt some of its planks. For example, Hochul would be well advised to undo the idiotic bail deform law.
 
I didn't read what Zipr said. Though it's clear that the US is not an anomaly. Many developed countries have worse inflation than we do in the US. Some have lower. Without going though the math and deciding what is and is not to be counted as a developed or "modern" country, the US us pretty in the middle and it's clearly a global problem - not a problem that can be pinned on Biden.
Your conclusion does not follow. Just because US might have a middling inflation rate among developed countries does not mean that some of Biden's policies (such as continuing Pandemic largess long after the Pandemic-induced disruptions to the economy were over) did not contribute to the inflation in the US. Without these policies, inflation would have been lower.
Note that Biden wanted to spend $3,500,000,000,000.00 more money than he was already spending, which would have added to the inflationary pressure. That this did not happen is not thanks to Biden, but thanks to Manchin and Sinema.
 
There are two possibilities:

1: This is all Biden's fault
2: Something is going on that's not within Biden's direct control.

I never claimed it was ALL Biden's fault. Not even in the US, much less globally.
But fiscal policy (and other countries have their own fiscal policies that they can screw up) definitely contributes to inflation.
The only reason lefties do not want to admit that is that it would curb their spending.
 
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