ApostateAbe
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Sep 19, 2002
- Messages
- 1,299
- Location
- Colorado, USA
- Basic Beliefs
- Infotheist. I believe the gods to be mere information.
What makes some propositions more probable than others even when the direct evidence is equal? What makes a light in the sky more likely to be a street light than an outer space alien spacecraft, even if the shape of the light would follow just as much from an alien spacecraft as a streetlight? It is the principle of background knowledge. In Bayes' Theorem, it is the variable of "prior probability," and it is just as important as the probability that follows from direct evidence. It is the principle that is the basis for Carl Sagan's proverb: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." We don't have the habit of including prior probability in our definition of "evidence," so it may be habitually overlooked in our considerations of probability, but it is just as important (equal weight in Bayes' Theorem). In fact, prior probability is the only part of the equation that makes the claim of no objective God extremely probable. There is little direct evidence, one way or the other, but the hypothesis would be very much out of place from the confirmed patterns of observation.
So, debates about genetic racial variations in intelligence focus heavily on direct evidence (racial IQ gaps in many societies, transracial adoption studies, brain size correlations, national skin color and IQ correlation, and so on), but participants tend to overlook the point that genetic variations in intelligence are very much expected merely from background knowledge of human evolutionary history and evolutionary theory. The points are summarized as follows:
And this is before looking at the direct evidence that I before alluded to. It means that the hypothesis of exactly equal genetic racial variations in intelligence is an extraordinary claim. It is not an impossible claim, but it has a steep hill to climb.
Underseer had an interesting argument a few days ago to counter the hypothesis of racial variations in brain size: China has had a historical pattern of killing its most intelligent people; therefore, if racial variations in intelligence were genetic, northeast Asians should be the dullest race. If values can be assigned to the premises of this argument so it is more than a hunch, then it would be a sound argument. If not, then still a valuable contribution to the debate (hypotheses should not be discouraged merely for being unproven). But, we should wonder: given sufficient strength of the values of such a pattern, why would it not work? What would stop humans from evolving in such a way? If the argument is true, then it would be a theoretical puzzler. Does the theory of evolution not apply to human beings? Is there an intrinsic power that prevents uncomfortable racial variations from following as normally expected from Darwinian selective pressures? Or can we easily shape human nature merely with our wishes?
So, debates about genetic racial variations in intelligence focus heavily on direct evidence (racial IQ gaps in many societies, transracial adoption studies, brain size correlations, national skin color and IQ correlation, and so on), but participants tend to overlook the point that genetic variations in intelligence are very much expected merely from background knowledge of human evolutionary history and evolutionary theory. The points are summarized as follows:
- Human intelligence is a product of Darwinian evolution, and it increased relatively swiftly over the last two million years, with brain size increasing about 1 cubic centimeter every 3000 years and accelerating.
- Human populations have split apart, with migrations out of Africa happening variously between 60,000 and 125,000 years ago.
- As the end of the last ice age happened only 12,000 years ago, ancestral environments after the out-of-Africa migrations were various. Genetic variations followed.
- Skin color is only one of many genetic racial variations that followed. There are phenotypic variations in every system of the human body--digestive system (adult lactose tolerance), immune system (epidemic resistances), skeletal system (bone density and geometry), muscular system (muscle mass), nervous system (brain size), circulatory system (blood types and blood pressure), respiratory system (lung volume), reproductive system (penis size), and endocrine system (testosterone and estrogen). In any physiological aspect where there are genetic variations WITHIN a race, there are also variations BETWEEN races.
- Intelligence variations are highly genetically heritable within races, as established by studies of identical twins reared apart and other family pairings. Scientific estimates range from 40% to 80%.
And this is before looking at the direct evidence that I before alluded to. It means that the hypothesis of exactly equal genetic racial variations in intelligence is an extraordinary claim. It is not an impossible claim, but it has a steep hill to climb.
Underseer had an interesting argument a few days ago to counter the hypothesis of racial variations in brain size: China has had a historical pattern of killing its most intelligent people; therefore, if racial variations in intelligence were genetic, northeast Asians should be the dullest race. If values can be assigned to the premises of this argument so it is more than a hunch, then it would be a sound argument. If not, then still a valuable contribution to the debate (hypotheses should not be discouraged merely for being unproven). But, we should wonder: given sufficient strength of the values of such a pattern, why would it not work? What would stop humans from evolving in such a way? If the argument is true, then it would be a theoretical puzzler. Does the theory of evolution not apply to human beings? Is there an intrinsic power that prevents uncomfortable racial variations from following as normally expected from Darwinian selective pressures? Or can we easily shape human nature merely with our wishes?