Breakdown In Civil Order

[bilby]

Based on the scaremongering above, you might expect that Democrat-led states in general and the West Coast states specifically must lead the entire nation in overdose deaths. But of course, that's not even close to true:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/drug_poisoning_mortality/drug_poisoning.htm

View attachment 39081

It turns out, social stigma and imprisonment are very ineffective tools for saving lives from drug overdose, and party affiliation in particular seems to be almost entirely irrelevant, or at least, not very effective at predicting where outbreaks will center. Rather, the opioid epidemic has a geographic pattern, and that pattern seems to hold true whether a particular community is in a "red" or "blue" state.

Whoever would have thought that a Daily Mail report about a Fox News report would turn out to be factually wrong hyperbole designed solely to pander to the prejudices and emotional triggers of the right-wing idiots?

I am shocked.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Based on the scaremongering above, you might expect that Democrat-led states in general and the West Coast states specifically must lead the entire nation in overdose deaths. But of course, that's not even close to true:

Sometimes it is a 'well, it used to be true'. I had no idea that drug related deaths have increased so much since 1999 across the country (including the west coast).

If that chart stayed constant with color shading from 1999, 2020 would look quite badly. Only 5 states in 1999 had deaths rates in excess of the minimum state in 2020 (10.3).

It turns out, social stigma and imprisonment are very ineffective tools for saving lives from drug overdose, and party affiliation in particular seems to be almost entirely irrelevant, or at least, not very effective at predicting where outbreaks will center. Rather, the opioid epidemic has a geographic pattern, and that pattern seems to hold true whether a particular community is in a "red" or "blue" state.

As I noted up above, drug overdose rates have gone up substantially across America. The shading in the 2020 graph is misleading! The West Coast looks lower, but only relevant to other states.

Of course, what we also know is that liberal drug policy has seen the drug overdose death rate in Nebraska increase 400 to 500% between 1999 and 2020.

 

[Politesse]

Sometimes it is a 'well, it used to be true'. I had no idea that drug related deaths have increased so much since 1999 across the country (including the west coast).

If that chart stayed constant with color shading from 1999, 2020 would look quite badly. Only 5 states in 1999 had deaths rates in excess of the minimum state in 2020 (10.3).

Oh, it's completely horrifying to be sure. The spike in deaths has been catastrophic, and the impact of existing interventions seems to have only minor effect on the whole. Unfortunately, outside of the communities most heavily affected very few Americans care if their countrymen are dying of... well, anything I suppose, but especially heavily stigmatized diseases like drug addiction. There's very little concern and even less funding to deal with the crisis.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Based on the scaremongering above, you might expect that Democrat-led states in general and the West Coast states specifically must lead the entire nation in overdose deaths. But of course, that's not even close to true:

Sometimes it is a 'well, it used to be true'. I had no idea that drug related deaths have increased so much since 1999 across the country (including the west coast).

If that chart stayed constant with color shading from 1999, 2020 would look quite badly. Only 5 states in 1999 had deaths rates in excess of the minimum state in 2020 (10.3).

Yup, another victory for the drug war.

Fentanyl is smaller than heroin, this makes it easier to smuggle into the country. Thus we see heroin that's cut more but then laced with fentanyl to make it as potent--oops, you're getting into the realm that you must take considerable care in mixing to avoid substantial differences from dose to dose. Your average drug dealer isn't taking enough care.

 

[Derec]

In good news for Los Angeles, the effort to recall LA DA Gascon moves forward. Enough signatures have been collected and submitted by the deadline. The problem now is signature verification process. A corrupt LA County will try their hardest to scupper the measure getting on the ballot.

Garcon getting the boot and Caruso getting elected mayor would likely be the best thing to happen to LA in decades.

 

[lpetrich]

Adam Conover on Twitter: "A lot of analysts - especially the ones not based in California - spoke way too soon about what they thought last week's election results meant. Because the more votes come in, the more it looks like a progressive sweep." / Twitter
then
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Honest question: Why do journalists/news outlets publish political analysis pieces about election results before significant amounts of votes are counted?
Ideology aside, it seems kind strange to publish think pieces about results while large #s of mail-in votes are outstanding." / Twitter
then
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "We know in-person ballots are not representative samples of overall results, & mail-ins tend to come from different kinds of voters.
It seems a lot of outlets got the CA analysis wrong. We’d never make these kinds of assumptions in a general election. Why make them in any other?" / Twitter

Other progressive attorneys general survived better, like Larry Krasner of Philadelphia. But one thing that helped LK was support from criminal-justice-reform activists, something that CB had less of.

 

[lpetrich]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Wow. Another world is possible. " / Twitter

Hawai'i State Commission on the Status of Women on Twitter: "
BREAKING
There are zero incarcerated girls in Hawai’i. For the 1st time in the history of the Hawai’i Youth Correctional Facility, it is empty of girls. This is no fluke or accident. HYCF has been empty for weeks after years of work to replace handcuffs with healing." / Twitter
No further details, however.

But I found this detailed look:
Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "@HawaiiCSW Congrats, Hawai'i! Some observations: ..." / Twitter

Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "In 2013, a bipartisan, interbranch workgroup found the state was spending $200k/year to lock up kids, increasingly for misdemeanors, and holding them longer. They recommended legislative (and other) changes to safely reduce populations. (links)" / Twitter
noting
Hawaii’s 2014 Juvenile Justice Reform - PSPPHIJuvenileJusticeReformBrief.pdf

The language is dry and bureaucratic, yet the core message in a new report on juvenile justice comes through with devastating clarity: Hawaii is failing to rehabilitate most offenders because it uses the wrong approach, relying on expensive incarceration even for those convicted of misdemeanors and failing to provide timely access to the drug and mental-health treatment these troubled youths desperately need."

Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "In less than 5 years, the number of kids in the state's secure facility fell by two-thirds. (pic link)" / Twitter
Going from 100 in 2013 to 34 in 2018

Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "Court referrals for new law violations fell by 28%, status referrals fell 9%, court filings down 30%, and admissions to probation and facilities fell by more than half. Documented by @CJIatCRJ with support from @OJPOJJDP (link)" / Twitter
noting
HI-Brief-v8-10-17-17_UPDATED_8-pages_FINAL_FINAL_FINAL_WEB.pdf

Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "@CJIatCRJ @OJPOJJDP Lots of responses to the main article insinuating that courts were just "getting soft." False. In the decade ending 2015 two things fell by 50%: the juvenile facility commitment rate AND the juvenile violent crime arrest rate. (link)" / Twitter
noting
Juvenile Commitment Rate Falls by Half Nationally in 10 Years | The Pew Charitable Trusts
Over 2006 - 2015

Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "@CJIatCRJ @OJPOJJDP But were these reductions just in "blue states" like Hawaii? Nope. See examples from Utah (link) and Kansas (link)" / Twitter
noting
Utah’s 2017 Juvenile Justice Reform Shows Early Promise | The Pew Charitable Trusts
and
Kansas Sees 63% Decline in Youth Confinement | The Pew Charitable Trusts

Jake Horowitz on Twitter: "Here's a more comprehensive round-up (link) /fin" / Twitter
noting
States Take the Lead on Juvenile Justice Reform | The Pew Charitable Trusts

On March 24, Utah—the seventh state with which Pew has partnered—became the latest state to embrace reform when Governor Gary Herbert (R) signed comprehensive juvenile justice legislation to promote public safety; hold youth offenders accountable; control costs; reduce recidivism; and improve outcomes for juveniles, families, and communities. The law removes truancy from juvenile court jurisdiction; expands effective precourt alternatives; establishes presumptive lengths of time that youth can remain on probation, in out-of-home placements, and under the supervision of the court; caps fines and fees; and prioritizes restitution to victims over other financial obligations, among many other reforms. It is expected to cut the population of juveniles placed in state custody by 47 percent by 2022, compared with projected levels, freeing up more than $70 million over five years for reinvestment in evidence-based alternatives to incarceration.

Note especially "... prioritizes restitution to victims over other financial obligations ..."

That's great. Addressing concerns of victims directly is something that our criminal-justice system is rather lacking in.

 

[TSwizzle]

Portland's open-air drug market is laid bare as people smoke heroin on the streets and needles litter the sidewalks as city officials start homeless sweeps while a nearby city's mayoral candidate 'wants to round them up and use 'Japanese-style pods' to house them. New photos taken by DailyMail.com show the current situation in Portland, a city that has been plagued with homelessness and addicts openly using drugs in broad daylight. Users were seen injecting themselves, slumping over in a semi-comatose state. Discarded needles, human waste and the smell of urine adds another layer of tarnish to city's progressive policies - one of them being the Ballot Measure 110 decision, which has decriminalized hard drugs in the Democrat-run state.

Daily Mail

It's quite shocking that this is allowed to grow.

 

[TSwizzle]

Not a problem because it was more violent back in the eighties I guess;

Washington, Baltimore, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Milwaukee are on track to surpass their already-soaring homicide rates from last year. Last year, the FBI warned that homicides in the US rose nearly 30 percent from 2020 and overall violent crime rose for the first time in four years. The stunning trend in homicides has continued this year. In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the homicide rate leaped 24.7 percent from the year-to-date compared to the same period last year.

Daily Mail

 

[lpetrich]

I checked on California Primary Election Results 2022 - The New York Times

Chesa Boudin was recalled 55% - 45% -- *not* overwhelmingly.

The LA mayor: Karen Bass 43.1%, Rick Caruso 36.0%, others 7.8%, 6.9%, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.3%, 0.2%

How a billionaire mall magnate pulled ahead in the Los Angeles mayoral race - POLITICO

For decades, billionaire Rick Caruso has quietly wielded influence and curried political capital in one of the nation’s most sprawling and diverse metropolises. Now, he wants to cash in that clout for the top job in city hall.

At 63, Caruso has spent most of his adult life as a Republican, developing some of Los Angeles’ most iconic luxury shopping centers and helming several influential city commissions — all while keeping an eye on the mayor’s office. His polished persona and powerful connections make him an obvious candidate for political office, but past ruminations of mounting a campaign have fizzled in the liberal city.

 

[TSwizzle]

LONG BEACH, Calif. - Homelessness in Long Beach has increased by 62% since 2020, according to the results of the city-run 2022 Homeless Point in Time Count. The count determined there were 3,296 people experiencing homelessness on Feb. 24, when the survey was conducted by the city's Health and Human Services Department. The 2020 count found there were 2,034 people experiencing homelessness.
Long Beach's 2022 count also found a 22% increase in people living in encampments or on the street, and a 380% increase in people living in a vehicle compared to January 2020. At the same time, according to the city, "while many remain unsheltered, more people than ever before are living in emergency shelters or interim housing in Long Beach." Specifically, according to city data, the number of people experiencing homelessness living in interim housing increased by 123% — though those living in interim housing are still classified as homeless. In addition, according to the city, 78% of the city's homeless were living in Long Beach and Los Angeles County before becoming homeless, while more than 90% became homeless in California.

News

A number of cities in Los Angeles county resemble third world conditions.

 

[Politesse]

So you're upset that people are in interim housing? Why?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

LONG BEACH, Calif. - Homelessness in Long Beach has increased by 62% since 2020, according to the results of the city-run 2022 Homeless Point in Time Count. The count determined there were 3,296 people experiencing homelessness on Feb. 24, when the survey was conducted by the city's Health and Human Services Department. The 2020 count found there were 2,034 people experiencing homelessness.
Long Beach's 2022 count also found a 22% increase in people living in encampments or on the street, and a 380% increase in people living in a vehicle compared to January 2020. At the same time, according to the city, "while many remain unsheltered, more people than ever before are living in emergency shelters or interim housing in Long Beach." Specifically, according to city data, the number of people experiencing homelessness living in interim housing increased by 123% — though those living in interim housing are still classified as homeless. In addition, according to the city, 78% of the city's homeless were living in Long Beach and Los Angeles County before becoming homeless, while more than 90% became homeless in California.

News

A number of cities in Los Angeles county resemble third world conditions.

Third world? Yeah. Not really.

Long Beach population over 460,000 people.

Report Link

Homeless went from 3,300 from 2,000 between 2022 and 2020. So it went from 0.5% to 0.7%.

We should aim to eliminate homelessness. But to consider that tick of 0.5% to about 0.7% of the population being homeless as meaning the city is Third World, that's just the typical hyperbole we have come to expect from the #LetsGoHomelander crowd.

 

[TSwizzle]

A cycling fitness studio in Los Angeles is demanding the city address the homelessness crisis affecting business. Jessica Lewis, owner of Dragonfly Cycling in Sherman Oaks, says she noticed six incidents this month, from car break-ins to unhoused people defecating and blocking clients from entering her studio. She called the Los Angeles Police Department and LA City Council Tuesday morning regarding another incident. "Somebody came in with an 'F the police' tattoo on his stomach, came into my business, scared myself and clients at the desk checking in," Lewis said. LA City Council Member Nithya Raman said she's aware of the issues and that her office has responded every time Lewis reached out over the last 14 months, including sending their homeless outreach team to Lewis' studio following the incident Tuesday.

NBC

Jessica, her staff and clients are scared because these drug addled homeless people are a very serious threat. Just recently my friend was attacked in his store by a homeless woman and was bitten. The homeless woman was known to police and had already many run ins with the law. My friend is getting tested for hepatitis, aids etc.

The outreach teams are useless.

 

[Politesse]

The outreach teams are useless.

What alternative strategy would you propose?

 

[TSwizzle]

This is what the people of California have to deal with;

NASCAR star Bobby East, 37, died after being stabbed at a California gas station. Police are looking for Trent William Millsap, 27, who allegedly stabbed the three-time US Auto Club (USAC) champ in the chest while he was fueling up in Westminster on Wednesday. Police said Millsap, a transient who frequents the area, is also accused of stabbing another man at the 76 gas station before allegedly attacking East. Officials said Millsap, who has distinct tattoos all over his body, should be considered armed and dangerous. The homeless man also has an outstanding parole warrant.

Daily Mail

And Newsom wants to run the country. Let that sink in.

 

[thebeave]

This is what the people of California have to deal with;

NASCAR star Bobby East, 37, died after being stabbed at a California gas station. Police are looking for Trent William Millsap, 27, who allegedly stabbed the three-time US Auto Club (USAC) champ in the chest while he was fueling up in Westminster on Wednesday. Police said Millsap, a transient who frequents the area, is also accused of stabbing another man at the 76 gas station before allegedly attacking East. Officials said Millsap, who has distinct tattoos all over his body, should be considered armed and dangerous. The homeless man also has an outstanding parole warrant.

Daily Mail

And Newsom wants to run the country. Let that sink in.

*shivers* What has the guy done (in any office he has held) that he could even remotely brag about?

 

[Politesse]

This is what the people of California have to deal with;

NASCAR star Bobby East, 37, died after being stabbed at a California gas station. Police are looking for Trent William Millsap, 27, who allegedly stabbed the three-time US Auto Club (USAC) champ in the chest while he was fueling up in Westminster on Wednesday. Police said Millsap, a transient who frequents the area, is also accused of stabbing another man at the 76 gas station before allegedly attacking East. Officials said Millsap, who has distinct tattoos all over his body, should be considered armed and dangerous. The homeless man also has an outstanding parole warrant.

Daily Mail

And Newsom wants to run the country. Let that sink in.

Indeed. There are only stabbings in California.



Are conservatives really so dumb as to read a headline from a state and be like, this must be a prevalent problem in that state, personally caused by that state's governor, unless it's a red state, in which case leadership is irrelevant and this is all the Democrat's fault somehow?

 

[Copernicus]

This is what the people of California have to deal with;

NASCAR star Bobby East, 37, died after being stabbed at a California gas station. Police are looking for Trent William Millsap, 27, who allegedly stabbed the three-time US Auto Club (USAC) champ in the chest while he was fueling up in Westminster on Wednesday. Police said Millsap, a transient who frequents the area, is also accused of stabbing another man at the 76 gas station before allegedly attacking East. Officials said Millsap, who has distinct tattoos all over his body, should be considered armed and dangerous. The homeless man also has an outstanding parole warrant.

Daily Mail

And Newsom wants to run the country. Let that sink in.

Indeed. There are only stabbings in California.



Are conservatives really so dumb as to read a headline from a state and be like, this must be a prevalent problem in that state, personally caused by that state's governor, unless it's a red state, in which case leadership is irrelevant and this is all the Democrat's fault somehow?

Don't be silly. You only have to look at all those other states run be Democrats with high murder rates to see that TSwizzle knows what he is talking about. The crime map on your linked web site shows that California has a homicide rate of 4.5 per 100,000 and firearms death rate of 7.9. It's even worse in Florida, which also has a governor contending for the next next presidential election. Florida has a rate of 5.0 and 12.6, respectively. Newsom can't beat that record. What is the name of the Democrat in charge of Florida? Ron something? Anybody?

 

[Politesse]

I was gonna stab a dude the other day, but then I was like "oh snap, I'm in Prescott, the governor of this state is that ice cream guy. I'd better just write angry forum post instead. How I miss California!"