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California May Have a Random Celebrity Republican as Governor Soon

lpetrich

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California Recall Election Results: Live Map - The New York Times

The numbers: No 63.6%, Yes 36.4%, with 82% counted.
Remaining ballots:
Over recall threshold
To get No 58%, Yes 42%: No 16.1%, Yes 83.9%.

"Over recall threshold" means that even if the remaining ballots are all "Yes", then Governor Newsom will not be recalled.

Furthermore, the "No" fraction of the vote is likely to beat the "No" fraction of the final poll results.
 

Politesse

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I notice that the counties most associated with the "State of Jefferson" have voted overwhelmingly for the recall, the only sizeable region to do so. We have our internal fracture points.

In other interesting news, one of Newsom's first acts post-election was to sign into law a bill banning single-family house zoning restrictions in the state. Those who thought that recalling Newsom was the only way to combat homelessness in the state are clearly in error.
 

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I notice that the counties most associated with the "State of Jefferson" have voted overwhelmingly for the recall, the only sizeable region to do so. We have our internal fracture points.

In other interesting news, one of Newsom's first acts post-election was to sign into law a bill banning single-family house zoning restrictions in the state. Those who thought that recalling Newsom was the only way to combat homelessness in the state are clearly in error.

Wait, he banned one of the most powerful redlining tools available to NIMBY's?

That's pretty great!
 

Rhea

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I hope Cali is able to move forward from this undemocratic method that allows people with only 20% of state support to have a chance at leading the state. A successful recall should result in a new leader with support of the majority. It should not enable whiney extremists with billionaire backers to take over a state. Or waste state resources trying.
 

ZiprHead

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
 

Shadowy Man

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I notice that the counties most associated with the "State of Jefferson" have voted overwhelmingly for the recall, the only sizeable region to do so. We have our internal fracture points.

In other interesting news, one of Newsom's first acts post-election was to sign into law a bill banning single-family house zoning restrictions in the state. Those who thought that recalling Newsom was the only way to combat homelessness in the state are clearly in error.

Wait, he banned one of the most powerful redlining tools available to NIMBY's?

That's pretty great!

It sounds like the Californian legislature banned it.
 

Politesse

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I notice that the counties most associated with the "State of Jefferson" have voted overwhelmingly for the recall, the only sizeable region to do so. We have our internal fracture points.

In other interesting news, one of Newsom's first acts post-election was to sign into law a bill banning single-family house zoning restrictions in the state. Those who thought that recalling Newsom was the only way to combat homelessness in the state are clearly in error.

Wait, he banned one of the most powerful redlining tools available to NIMBY's?

That's pretty great!

Yeah, I'm pretty jazzed about it; my region specifically was in desperate need of such a mandate. He was more delaying than causing the bill up until now, but I'm glad it was on his "if I survive the recall" checklist.
 

Politesse

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?
 

Jarhyn

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I notice that the counties most associated with the "State of Jefferson" have voted overwhelmingly for the recall, the only sizeable region to do so. We have our internal fracture points.

In other interesting news, one of Newsom's first acts post-election was to sign into law a bill banning single-family house zoning restrictions in the state. Those who thought that recalling Newsom was the only way to combat homelessness in the state are clearly in error.

Wait, he banned one of the most powerful redlining tools available to NIMBY's?

That's pretty great!

It sounds like the Californian legislature banned it.

So, it sounds like the Californian people banned it.

We can keep exploding the chain if you want?

It wouldn't have happened otherwise, we can say?
 

Shadowy Man

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It sounds like the Californian legislature banned it.

So, it sounds like the Californian people banned it.

We can keep exploding the chain if you want?

It wouldn't have happened otherwise, we can say?

Well. I think there is a useful distinction between a governor signing a bill that the legislature put together and other executive actions within the purview of the governor. Sometimes, though, a governor can champion a specific legislation and then it may more rightly be called “his”. I don’t know if that is the case here.
 

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?

Maybe low density.
 

lpetrich

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Here's how I estimated how much of the remaining uncounted vote needs to be "Yes" to make a recall.

fi - initial "No" fraction
ft - target "No" fraction
fc - fraction of votes counted
fa - fraction in uncounted votes that must be "No"

fa = (ft - fc*fi) / (1 - fc)

The recall threshold is 50%.

I redid my earlier calculations and added the latest numbers.

64-36 at 70%
50-50: 17-83 _ 58-42: 44-56

63.8-36.2 at 74%
50-50: 10.7-89.3 _ 58-42: 41.5-58.5

63.9-36.1 at 76%
50-50: 6.0-94.0 _ 58-42: 39.3-60.7

63.8-36.2 at 77%
50-50: 3.8-96.2 _ 58-42: 38.6-61.4

63.7-36.3 at 78%
50-50: 1.4-98.6 _ 58-42: 37.8-62.2

63.6-36.4 at 82%
50-50: (not possible) _ 58-42: 32.5-67.5

63.5-36.5 at 85%
50-50: (not possible) _ 58-42: 26.8-73.2

(not possible) - the "no" number is negative.
 

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?

Maybe low density.
Some people rise to social distancing, others have it thrust upon them, willy-nilly.
 

lpetrich

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This shows what a bullet California dodged in the recent recall election.

Who is Larry Elder? The Republican's Political Stances - The New York Times
He has long been an uncompromising right-winger.
Undocumented immigrants? Deport them. Affirmative action? End it. Equal pay? The glass ceiling doesn’t exist.

...
Mr. Newsom, whose fate rides on turnout, has made a foil of Mr. Elder, a “small-l libertarian” who reliably agitates the governor’s base with claims, for instance, that the minimum wage should be zero, the “war on oil” should be ended and racial preferences are destructive.

“The leading candidate thinks climate change is a hoax, believes we need more offshore oil drilling, more fracking, does not believe a woman has the right to choose, actually came out against Roe v. Wade, does not believe in a minimum wage,” Mr. Newsom has told supporters.

“Don’t paint me as some wild-eyed radical,” Mr. Elder said in a recent interview. “I’m running because of crime, homelessness, the rising cost of living and the outrageous decisions made during Covid that shut down the state.”

...
Mr. Elder’s political positions speak loudly and clearly to the state’s small but vocal strain of far-right conservatism. He supports school vouchers and prioritizes jobs over environmental and climate considerations. He opposes abortion. He is vaccinated against the coronavirus because of a rare blood condition but opposes vaccine and mask “mandates.”

...
But establishment Republicans such as Mr. Faulconer say he is more suited to provocation than to governing.

While other candidates disclosed their income taxes, Mr. Elder supplied partial returns and then successfully challenged the state requirement, keeping his private.

After incomplete conflict-of-interest disclosures — now being investigated by state campaign finance regulators — were amended, they showed that Mr. Elder is being paid by The Epoch Times, a purveyor of political misinformation and far-right conspiracy theories.

He has refused to debate other Republicans and bashed the news media when challenged. He has told left-leaning editorial boards that President Biden fairly won in 2020 and conservative radio interviewers that he did not.

He has recanted assertions made in 2008 that climate change is “a crock” but, in an interview, offered $10,000 to charity for proof he had ever said that and falsely claimed that “nobody really knows to what degree” humans caused climate change. He has written that Democrats do better with female voters because, according to academic research, “women know less than men about political issues.”
Most recently, he has said that it was slaveowners who deserved reparations. That makes me wonder what he would have been like as a slave. Would he have enjoyed snitching on the other slaves?

His father was also violently abusive, Mr. Elder wrote in 2018, driving him to leave home the moment he graduated from Crenshaw High School. Admitted to Brown University under an early affirmative action program, Mr. Elder, the second of three sons, stayed away from California for years, moving on to the University of Michigan Law School and becoming a lawyer and legal recruiter in Ohio.
That might explain this:
This month, The Sacramento Bee and two Republican candidates — Kevin Faulconer, the former San Diego mayor, and Caitlyn Jenner, the television personality and former Olympian — demanded that Mr. Elder drop out of the race after an ex-girlfriend of his said he brandished a gun at her while high on marijuana during a 2015 breakup.

“We were having a conversation and he walked to the drawer and took out a .45 and checked to see that it was loaded,” Alexandra Datig, 51, said in an interview. Ms. Datig, who worked as an escort in the 1990s and now runs Front Page Index, a conservative website, said: “He wanted me to know he was ready to be very threatening to me. He’s a talented entertainer, but he shouldn’t be governor.”

Mr. Elder, 69, did not respond to requests for comment about Ms. Datig’s claims, but he did tweet that he has “never brandished a gun at anyone,” adding, “I am not going to dignify this with a response.”

...
She used her connections to help Mr. Elder get a Hollywood Walk of Fame star, she said, and tattooed “Larry’s Girl” across her lower back.

But as the relationship deteriorated, she said, he threatened eviction. A legal agreement shows she left for $13,000 in relocation money, $7,000 for tattoo removal and a Cadillac.
 

lpetrich

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California's recall process is flawed. One has two votes in it, one for whether or not to recall the governor, and one for whomever will replace the governor if he/she is recalled. That means that the next governor can get only a small fraction of the total votes.

In light of Newsom election, CA recall process needs reform | The Sacramento Bee
"There’s much that’s disturbing about this recall. It’s not based on any complaints of misconduct in office by Gov. Gavin Newsom, but seems instead to be a calculated effort by Republicans — a minority in the state — to take over the governorship through a back door."

‘Some Serious Problems’ With California Recall Laws, Secretary Of State Says - capradio.org
CA Sec'y of State Shirley Weber. "Specifically, she questioned the signature threshold for forcing a recall, a lack of limits on when a recall can be held, and the possibility that a replacement candidate could win elected office with less than a majority of the vote."

Low threshold: 12% of the previous election's total vote. Why not 20% or 25%? KS has 40%.

"Weber suggested a committee or commission to review the entire recall process. She made clear she isn’t calling for any immediate or specific changes, but she feels some of the recall rules deserve a second look."

What’s Wrong with the Recall? - Public Policy Institute of California

Opinion | There Is a Problem With California’s Recall. It’s Unconstitutional. - The New York Times
 

Swammerdami

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..

Like many such maps, this one emphasizes area rather than population, and is therefore misleading.

The 23 smallest California counties added together have a smaller population than ANY of the ten largest counties.
 

Loren Pechtel

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..
What's Inyo County's secret?

Maybe low density.

I don't know how big Inyo county is, but I know it includes Death Valley. That's a lot of nothing.
 

Swammerdami

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If providing of uncontested evidence isn't proof, what is?

Given your education, I'm surprised you would ask a question like that.

If you need education about social media bubbles, or the difference between evidence and proof, ask around. I'm not going to try and do that in an internet post.
Tom

If you're asking me as a scientist, I would say that "proof" does not exist except as a social ideal. In rhetoric though, there is no higher standard imaginable than "meaningful evidence is presented, and is not contradicted by any evidence of an alternative or critique of the evidence itself." How more well-established can a claim really be, in the context of a forum conversation?

Can't the hierarchy of legal standards be adapted? In increasing order of uncertainty:
  • Beyond a reasonable doubt
  • Clear and convincing evidence
  • Preponderance of the evidence
  • Substantial evidence
  • Probable cause
  • Reasonable suspicion
 

ZiprHead

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..

Like many such maps, this one emphasizes area rather than population, and is therefore misleading.

The 23 smallest California counties added together have a smaller population than ANY of the ten largest counties.

Agreed. I do wish it included population.
 

Jason Harvestdancer

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It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]
 

Swammerdami

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It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]

__________________________________
o Biden, no KKK, no Fascist USA

The word "know" has one silent k.
The word "knuckle" has two silent k's.
The word "Democrat" has three silent k's.

Asking for a citation shows remarkable lack of self-awareness for someone with a signature like that!
(For starters, where's the 2nd silent K in knuckle? :) )
 

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[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The map on the left is the recall results. The one on the right is the current COVID situation. <a href="https://t.co/5An0GV13hg">pic.twitter.com/5An0GV13hg</a></p>— Eric Ball (@DrEricBall) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricBall/status/1438150971721273351?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2021</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]..

Like many such maps, this one emphasizes area rather than population, and is therefore misleading.

The 23 smallest California counties added together have a smaller population than ANY of the ten largest counties.

If I were to make a meaningful map about COVID infections it would not be about population or population density.

It would be about the percentage of the population infected.

If the right map is about percentage of the population infected then it is very meaningful since we already know the highest population density is along or close to the coast.
 

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It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]

Politesse might have exaggerated a small bit. But maybe not.

If a state with a population as big as California adopted policies similar to those in Mississippi, which is basically what Larry Elder(R) was proposing, the death toll could be huge.
Tom
 

Politesse

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It seems California isn't ready for a black governor.

That is the only thing about Elder that would have made his win in any way palatable, speaking for myself at least.

But breaking down a single racial barrier is not worth the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, disproportionately citizens of color.

Hundreds of thousands of people?

[citation needed]

Can't cite a might-have-been, thank god. But if we were to have a COVID toll equivalent to that of other states that have banned pandemic PPE, the numbers would quickly climb to that level. Ours is a populous and in some regions very densely packed state. We've lost 68,000 people to the disease even with protective measures.
 

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Could be? Might have been? So you are just making shit up?

Making an educated guess based on statistical proof too difficult a concept for you? Although, I appreciate the irony of a libertarian criticizing what they consider make believe. That did make me giggle.
What irony? Libertarians are experts in make believe.
 

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I guess London Breed is qualified to be the next governor of California. She is just as hypocritical as the current holder of the office.

San Francisco mayor scolds 'fun police' after being criticized for flouting city's indoor mask mandate

Egotistical people say things like: "No one has been more conservative about protecting themselves than I have, not just because I want to set an example, but because I don't want to get Covid,"

Reminds me of another politician who always claimed no one was more blank than he or he was the least blank person in the world.

She then goes on to describe her behavior in a way that makes it clear she could actually have been more conservative about protecting herself, thus putting the lie to the above quote.
 

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lpetrich

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In red California, anger over recall blowout. 'The Democratic Party is the New York Yankees' - Los Angeles Times
On election day, Denise Pickens had a surprising feeling: Hope.

Surely, she figured, Gov. Gavin Newsom would be booted out of office. Or at least get a good scare.

There was such fervor here in rural Lassen County — where a whopping 84% of voters supported the recall, the highest percentage in the state — that it was hard not to believe it could happen.

Then Newsom’s landslide victory landed like a kick in the shin with a steel-toed boot.

...
As for the California GOP, which had its best shot in over a decade of governing the state?

“Ineffective, as usual,” said Pickens, a longtime Republican.

“Part of me is just like, you know what, the Democratic progressive machine is what it is, and there’s just not enough of us,” she said.

Getting the recall on the ballot initially felt like a win here in Northern California, where conservatives have long felt they would be better off seceding to form their own state called Jefferson.

...
“The Democratic Party is the New York Yankees, and the Republican Party in this state is the Minor Leagues,” said Christopher Cole, the former chairman of the Lassen County Republican Party. “You can’t compete.”
No mention of Larry Elder and his platform, to the extent that he could be said to have one.
 

thebeave

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I guess London Breed is qualified to be the next governor of California. She is just as hypocritical as the current holder of the office.

San Francisco mayor scolds 'fun police' after being criticized for flouting city's indoor mask mandate

I heard an audio clip yesterday of her explaining that she was able to justify going maskless because it was Tony! Toni! Tone! playing together again after some twenty years. Um...OK. I sorta vaguely recall that group, but couldn't name a single song from them if you put a gun to my head. Now if it was Led Zeppelin playing again, that would be worth going maskless for and possibly killing innocent people, but Tony! Toni! Tone! ? I think not.

London Breed has turned out to be a bit of a disappointment. I liked her initially. She struck me as a moderate, pragmatic problem solver type who could keep her nose clean when she was running for mayor, rather than the typical SF progressive hypocritical lefty loony. Seems I was wrong.
 

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Could be? Might have been? So you are just making shit up?

I am very sad to report to you that I do not, in fact, have a time machine capable of traveling to an alternate dimension where Larry Elder got elected.

Very sad indeed.

You could have made a ton of money ferrying alt-Californians back here...
 

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Could be? Might have been? So you are just making shit up?

Making an educated guess based on statistical proof too difficult a concept for you?

There's making an educated guess based on evidence, and then there is what he did...

His stance is that if Larry Elder was governor the death rate in California would be comparable to that of Mississippi or Florida as Elder's view on Covid mirror's the Governors' attitudes in those states. I am also of the radical (apparently) attitude that if you place a Governor with similar attitudes as De Santis, you'll see similar outcomes in public health concerns. Feel free to point out the flaw in that determination.
 

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I understand, you have to say it would be doomsday if a black man were elected.

Got it in one. You're a fucking genius.

It would be doomsday if that man, who happens to be black, got elected.

The way Jason says it is to imply that the person they respond to does not want black men elected despite the fact I would almost guarantee the person they talk to DID vote for Obama, and gladly, and probably Hillary too.

This is a dishonest and reprehensible tactic to use.

It is most certainly not rational. It is the forum equivalent of pulling your pants down, shitting in your hand, and throwing it.
 

Politesse

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I understand, you have to say it would be doomsday if a black man were elected.

Got it in one. You're a fucking genius.

It would be doomsday if that man, who happens to be black, got elected.

The way Jason says it is to imply that the person they respond to does not want black men elected despite the fact I would almost guarantee the person they talk to DID vote for Obama, and gladly, and probably Hillary too..

No, I voted for Obama and then Hillary, with some serious reservations. The color of his and her skin, however, were not among those reservations. On some level, I think there is an inherent benefit to racial diversity in governance, but that cannot be a person's only consideration in deciding whom to vote for (nor do I believe, for even half a second, that Jason Harvestdancer would just blindly vote for any black man regardless of his politics).
 

Jarhyn

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It would be doomsday if that man, who happens to be black, got elected.

The way Jason says it is to imply that the person they respond to does not want black men elected despite the fact I would almost guarantee the person they talk to DID vote for Obama, and gladly, and probably Hillary too..

No, I voted for Obama and then Hillary, with some serious reservations. The color of his and her skin, however, were not among those reservations. On some level, I think there is an inherent benefit to racial diversity in governance, but that cannot be a person's only consideration in deciding whom to vote for (nor do I believe, for even half a second, that Jason Harvestdancer would just blindly vote for any black man regardless of his politics).

I'm honestly quite happy you corrected me here. I do stand corrected.

And you are quite right.

My point still stands though, the part about rhetorical scatology.
 

thebeave

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I understand, you have to say it would be doomsday if a black man were elected.

So is your claim that if the Republicans had put forward a white conservative radio personality, Democrats would have voted for the recall?

Well, maybe. Despite the Democrats having a boatload of women and minorities to choose from for President in 2020, they went with a bumbling, old white guy. :)
 

Jimmy Higgins

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I understand, you have to say it would be doomsday if a black man were elected.

So is your claim that if the Republicans had put forward a white conservative radio personality, Democrats would have voted for the recall?
Dude, he is a Devil's Advocate that lost his way and now their posts are almost exclusively trolling. That sort of stuff happens when they put themselves up on a pedestal so high that the air gets too thin.
 

untermensche

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I understand, you have to say it would be doomsday if a black man were elected.

So is your claim that if the Republicans had put forward a white conservative radio personality, Democrats would have voted for the recall?

Well, maybe. Despite the Democrats having a boatload of women and minorities to choose from for President in 2020, they went with a bumbling, old white guy. :)

Biden was chosen by the Democratic machine.

On Super Tuesday many people doing better than Biden dropped out for some reason. They now are VP or have jobs in the administration.
 

Politesse

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Well, maybe. Despite the Democrats having a boatload of women and minorities to choose from for President in 2020, they went with a bumbling, old white guy. :)

And let me be clear, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that racism (and old money and executive misogyny while we're at it) played a role in that.
 

zorq

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That he makes the lefties this hysterical means we should support him; at least for the entertainment value.

Stop for a moment, and just look at this comment.

Regardless of any specific context it might be in reference to, is there a way to view a comment like this in any way other than juvenile?

There was a time when right wingers wanted respect from others. These days, as Trausti proves here, they seem to prefer scornful derision.

I swear that right wingers will start promoting NAMBLA soon just to hear the "histerical" reaction from the "lefties."
 
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