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"Coronavirus and the US" or "We are all going to die!!!!"

 
 
 
J842P said:
DBT said:
Animal studies confirmed the discrepancy, thought to be genetic or hormonal. According to the report, mice with ovaries removed lost their advantage.
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Interesting.
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Also men with prostate cancer who are on hormone therapy to reduce testosterone level are much less likely to die from COVID, 4 times less likely they said.
And men have more these specific receptors this virus likes to attach.
 
How Religion Spreads COVID-19, Continued | Adam Lee
noting
COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons - Quillette
Back to Adam Lee.
In the race to contain the coronavirus pandemic, scientists are zeroing in on so-called “superspreader” events, where one sick person infects a large number of others. There’s a pattern that’s been seen in other diseases, known as the 20/80 rule – 20% of sick individuals cause 80% of new cases – and some evidence suggests that it may hold for this virus as well.
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Three main routes of spread:
  • Ballistic droplets - large droplets from a sneeze or a cough
  • Aerosols - small droplets that stay suspended
  • Fomites - contaminated surfaces
Namely, most known SSEs happen at parties, large festivals like weddings, or business conferences. In nearly all cases, they occur in crowded indoor settings which feature close contact between people, often involving loud talking, shouting or singing. This supports the ballistic-droplet hypothesis as the primary means of spread.

There’s one more point that jumps out from the list: many of the SSEs are religious events.

...
In the case of religious SSEs, Sikhs, Christians, Jews and Muslims are all represented in the database. The virus makes no distinction according to creed, but does seem to prey on physically intimate congregations that feature some combination of mass participation, folk proselytizing and spontaneous, emotionally charged expressions of devotion.
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Adam Lee had previously written How Religion Spreads COVID-19 | Adam Lee - about the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in South Korea, which enforced attendance and forbade the wearing of masks as disrespectful to God - even the wearing of glasses.
 
Six Months of Coronavirus: Here’s Some of What We’ve Learned - The New York Times
  • We’ll have to live with this for a long time.
  • You should be wearing a mask.
  • American public health infrastructure needs an update.
  • Responding to the virus is extraordinarily expensive.
  • We have a long way to go to fix virus testing.
  • We can’t count on herd immunity to keep us healthy.
  • The virus produces more symptoms than expected.
  • We can worry a bit less about infection from surfaces.
  • We can also worry less about a mutating virus.
  • We can’t count on warm weather to defeat the virus.

After 6 Months, Important Mysteries About Coronavirus Endure - The New York Times
  • How many people have been infected.
  • The amount of virus it takes to make you sick.
  • Why some people get so much sicker than others.
  • The role of children in spreading the virus.
  • When or where the new coronavirus started spreading.
  • How long you’ll be immune after infection.
 
How to Read a Coronavirus Study, or Any Science Paper - The New York Times
A lot of people are reading scientific papers for the first time these days, hoping to make sense of the coronavirus pandemic. If you’re one of them, be advised the scientific paper is a peculiar literary genre that can take some getting used to. And also bear in mind that these are not typical times for scientific publishing.

It is hard to think of another moment in history when so many scientists turned their attention to one subject with such speed.
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Then the very fast growth of research into this virus. From a few papers in mid-January to over 50 papers by the end of January to a much larger number more recently. The National Library of Medicine (PubMed) lists 17,000 published papers, and a preprint archive called bioRxiv contains about 4,000 papers.

The first scientific papers read more like letters among friends, recounting hobbies and oddities. The first issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, published on May 30, 1667, included brief dispatches with titles such as “An account of the improvement of optick glasses,” and “An account of a very odd monstrous calf.”

...
Along the way, scientific papers also developed a distinctive narrative arc. A paper published in Philosophical Transactions today is no longer a gossipy letter, but a four-part story. Papers typically open with some history, giving a justification for the new research they contain. The authors then lay out the methods they used to carry out that research — how they eavesdropped on lions, how they measured chemicals in Martian dust. Then the papers present results, followed by a discussion of what those results mean. Scientists will typically point out the shortcomings in their own research and offer ideas for new studies to see if their interpretations hold water.
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lpetrich said:
Six Months of Coronavirus: Here’s Some of What We’ve Learned - The New York Times
  • We can’t count on warm weather to defeat the virus.
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A propos of which, 15 of the 20 worst affected Brazilian cities (in terms of accumulated deaths per 100,000 inhabitants) are in the (tropical) North region: https://g1.globo.com/bemestar/coron...umero-de-mortes-no-brasil-em-2-de-junho.ghtml

Or that's what I gather from this Portuguese: "Das 20 cidades com maior mortalidade no Brasil, 15 estão na Região Norte."
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
lpetrich said:
Six Months of Coronavirus: Here’s Some of What We’ve Learned - The New York Times
You should be wearing a mask.
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In certain situations but not always. I see people working in their back yards and they're wearing a mask. That is not necessary. I think it makes them feel safer, or maybe keeps them from touching their faces, keeps them reminded of the danger, but a mask in your own back yard when no one else is around is not necessary.
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Agreed. I don't wear a mask for yardwork.

On the other hand, mask compliance on the hiking trails seems to be about zero and even on the weekdays the parking lots are full. Hiking is going to have to wait until it cools off enough that I can just head out into a random piece of public land and see what's out there. (Now the only way to not melt is the mountain and if you're not on a trail there you're liable to hit uncrossable terrain.)
 
Tracking COVID-19 case growth. Right now you go to Wiki and you check out states you see the total number of cases and a percentage for the daily increase. But while this makes sense at the beginning of an outbreak, especially with a bug that last as long as SARS-CoV-2, shouldn't the percentage increase be based on the total existing number of cases and not the total number of cases which includes those that have recovered?

This would have a notable change on the perceived growth rate.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
Tracking COVID-19 case growth. Right now you go to Wiki and you check out states you see the total number of cases and a percentage for the daily increase. But while this makes sense at the beginning of an outbreak, especially with a bug that last as long as SARS-CoV-2, shouldn't the percentage increase be based on the total existing number of cases and not the total number of cases which includes those that have recovered?

This would have a notable change on the perceived growth rate.
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I've been thinking the same thing, but since I've been tracking the virus in my county since he began, I know that at most, we've had 10 new cases per day. Some days there aren't any new cases. Of course that's only known cases. None of us really know how many asymptomatic cases there have been. So, I'm still staying home except for grocery purchases and to bring dinner to my 74 year old neighbor who has several high risk factors.
 
repoman said:
380 jobs lost per covid death?

Also this

https://twitter.com/DougCookRD/status/1269751065836224512/photo/1
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First: Bad yardstick. The comparison shouldn't be between jobs lost and deaths, but between jobs lost and deaths prevented.

Second: The CDC is not a credible source of information about Covid-19 as what they say is directed by His Flatulence. Attempting to confirm the data presented the first hit I find had experts saying the CDC numbers were low.

Third: Lets assume the numbers are right. The lockdown avoided 60 million cases. * .26% is 156,000 lives saved. We are looking at 128 jobs per life, not 380. And 90% of the losses are temporary, so we are really looking at 13 jobs per life saved.
 
southernhybrid said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Tracking COVID-19 case growth. Right now you go to Wiki and you check out states you see the total number of cases and a percentage for the daily increase. But while this makes sense at the beginning of an outbreak, especially with a bug that last as long as SARS-CoV-2, shouldn't the percentage increase be based on the total existing number of cases and not the total number of cases which includes those that have recovered?

This would have a notable change on the perceived growth rate.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking the same thing, but since I've been tracking the virus in my county since he began, I know that at most, we've had 10 new cases per day. Some days there aren't any new cases. Of course that's only known cases. None of us really know how many asymptomatic cases there have been. So, I'm still staying home except for grocery purchases and to bring dinner to my 74 year old neighbor who has several high risk factors.
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And who knows how many are being covered up.
 
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